e-ISSN: 2582-5208

International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science

Volume:03/Issue:04/April-2021 Impact Factor- 5.354 www.irjmets.com

POST ELECTION IMPACT ON COVID-19 SPREAD

Shajil Anthru
Principal, Government Polytechnic College, Attingal, Trivandrum, Kerala, India

ABSTRACT
The impact of COVID-19 has not vanished and is still a threat to human life and society. Even though people are
aware of the precautionary measures to be taken and the concerned health departments of each state are trying
hard to contain COVID-19 through various measures, including vaccination, neglect and overrule of all safe
guidelines during the Election time in various states is an astonishing fact. This paper study the impact of
violation of precautions during this time and suggests possible remedies to overcome another large-scale spread
of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19, covid cases, Kerala, regulatory measures, on off control

I. INTRODUCTION
1137591 people are so far affected in Kerala by novel coronavirus covid-19. 1104225 out of 1137591 have
recovered. Sadly, 4681 patients have died because of coronavirus in Kerala. 28370 patients are still in hospital
and recovering. The Health Department has cautioned the public to take utmost precautions and to maintain all
COVID-19 protocols while participating in the electoral process, as the second wave of COVID is spreading fast
and intense in many parts of the country and cases are rising in Kerala too. An advisory issued by the department
says that every individual should wear a mask, covering nose and mouth properly, while going out to vote and
while waiting to vote at the polling booth. We should not take children along with adults for voting. Everyone
should carry their own pen for signing in the register. We must not lower mask while engaging in conversation
with others. Maintain a distance of at least six feet with others, while waiting in the queue. People should avoid
physical expressions of affection when meeting others and restrain themselves from shaking hands when
meeting others. Those suffering from fever or any respiratory diseases should avoid going to vote at regular hours
and should wait till the last hour of polling to cast their vote.
II. METHODOLOGY
Data pertaining to the Summary of COVID-19 cases and new COVID-19 cases in last 24 hours in Kerala for two
weeks is the basis of analysis. With the data of previous two weeks from Election date, a trend line is for
extrapolation to find out the outcome of COVID-19 cases that may arise in coming days developed forms the
basis of A strategy to control COVID-19 is in coming days.

III. MODELING AND ANALYSIS

Summary of COVID-19 cases until 05/04/2021 is shown below. This is only a sign to show that COVID-19 threat
is still pertaining to the State.

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 e-ISSN: 2582-5208
International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science
Volume:03/Issue:04/April-2021 Impact Factor- 5.354 www.irjmets.com

NEW COVID CASES LAST 24 HOURS

DATE POSITIVE CASES DEATHS
24-Mar 2456 10
25-Mar 1989 12
26-Mar 1825 14
27-Mar 2055 14
28-Mar 2216 12
29-Mar 1549 11
30-Mar 2389 16
31-Mar 2653 15
1-Apr 2798 11
2-Apr 2508 14
3-Apr 2541 12
4-Apr 2802 10
5-Apr 2357 12
6-Apr 3502 14
Table 1: New Covid cases during last 24 hours are as above.

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Analysis and extrapolation of the graph of the new covid cases during the last 24 hours for another 14 days
results in Graph 1.

GRAPH 1
The positive cases are increasing and the extrapolation shows a steady increase and may cross 400 mark before
20 April 2021.

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 e-ISSN: 2582-5208
International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science
Volume:03/Issue:04/April-2021 Impact Factor- 5.354 www.irjmets.com
Analysis and extrapolation of the graph of death cases during the last 24 hours for another 14 days results in
Graph 2

Fortunately, the death case graph shows a steadiness in growth. But the responsibility of the State is to curve
down the graph to zero.

GRAPH 2
Unfortunately, Violation of the guidelines regarding the road show, public gathering, election meetings and
rallies happened, irrespective of political parties. A certain section of campaigners did not fully follow the
guidelines as reported by the media. In this context, the COVID-19 cases may increase during the coming weeks
in Kerala. This is the point where the control engineers can interfere.

The points that are noteworthy are:

1. COVID-19 is a very peculiar disease.

2. Biologists still do not know why some people experience fairly mild symptoms while others feel the
extreme.

3. No one can explain why men are facing more fatality.

4. There is a long incubation period of 14 days between infection and symptoms.

5. Every persons can get re infected.

Develop a Closed Loop Control System

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 e-ISSN: 2582-5208
International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science
Volume:03/Issue:04/April-2021 Impact Factor- 5.354 www.irjmets.com

Figure -1 Closed Loop Control System

Control system in which the output influences the input quantity in such a manner that the input quantity will
adjust itself based on the output generated is called closed loop control system. Open loop control system can be
converted in to closed loop control system by providing a feedback. The covid pandemic which is an open loop
system is converted into a closed loop system by testing COVID-19 positivity. This information is a feedback for
comparison with reference for modifying the parameters in control strategy. Here the output is Actual Number
of Covid Patients; Input is the Zero Covid Patients; Number of Covid patients detected by testing is compared
with input. If the comparison result is negative, the system has to be controlled as shown below.

Figure 2: Closed Loop Control System

Parameters to be controlled.
We can bring the number of COVID patients down only by controlling certain parameters which affects in rising
the COVID patients. The key parameters are.

1. Social distancing

2. The inflow of people to a particular location

The best solution to control is on off strategy.

On off approach to Social distancing measures:

Here some restrictions are lifted when the number of fresh cases requiring intensive care is below a threshold
and are put into place when it exceeds a certain number. The feedback variable in this case is the number of
COVID patients in hospitals. Now there is a threat of increase of COVID-19 cases. Therefore, some restrictions
have to be implemented for effective monitoring and control. One such example is to close colleges and
institutions for another 14 days. Even examinations during this period shall be postponed. The Kerala’s political
scenario is that many students and government servants have gone for election work or campaigning.

On-off approach on Inflow of people to a particular location: Particular location refers to offices and other
public places. As said earlier, we actively involved many public in election activities.

CONCLUSION
Kerala has now controlled the COVID-19 pandemic and has developed its own health management strategy. In
such a case, On Off control strategy could control to ensure social distancing and the inflow of people to a
particular location.

V. REFERENCES
[1] Katsuhiko Ogata, Modern Control Engineering, 1987
[2] Daily Bulletin of Government of Kerala, India https://dhs.kerala.gov.in
[3] Kwang – Kyo Oh, Myoung-Chul Park, Hyo Sung Ahn , A Survey of multi-agent formulation control
[4] https://coronaclusters.in/kerala#clusters
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 e-ISSN: 2582-5208
International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science
Volume:03/Issue:04/April-2021 Impact Factor- 5.354 www.irjmets.com
[5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/dos-and-donts-on-the-health-front/article34248612.
[6] Shajil Anthru, “On Off Controller for COVID 19 Management,” International Research Journal of Engineering
and Technology, Vol. 7, Issue. 5, May 2020.

BIOGRAPHY

Shajil Anthru, M.Tech in Electronics and Communication with

specialization of Applied Electronics and Instrumentation, Six Sigma
Master Black Belt, Principal, Government Polytechnic College, Attingal,
Kerala, India. He is also the Author of Shortest story in three words,
founder of Fishbone poetry and Zeroism. Shajil Anthru is the Life Time
Professional Member of Institute of Scholar, Board Member of
International Research Journal Of Modernization in Engineering
Technology and Science, Reviewer of InSc, Reviewer and member of
editorial team of International Research Journal of Engineering and
Technology and honorary editor of transnational magazine Litterateur
Redefining World. He published eight books and hundreds of technical
articles in various journals and newspapers. He was honored with
several awards including Best Principal Award and Best Teacher Award.

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