MODE

CHOICE
Mode Choice
• Mode choice, also known as mode split
or modal split is the third stage required
in forecasting the future traffic impact
• Mode choice analysis allows the
modeler to determine what mode of
transport will be used for the distributed
trips
Factors Affecting Mode Choice
- Characteristics of the trips
- Household characteristics
- Zonal characteristics
- Network characteristics
Mode Choice Approaches/Models
- Trip end models
- Trip interchange models
- Logit analysis
- Probit analysis
Scenario:
You have two bowling balls, a red bowling
ball and a green bowling ball. The
question that researchers asked
themselves was the following: if a person
is asked which bowling ball is heavier by
holding one in each hand, what is the
probability that the person will correctly
choose the heavier ball?
Guided Questions:
Let’s focus first on some scenarios in the
following questions:
a) Assume the red ball weighs 0.5 kg and
the green ball weighs 0.5 kg. If a set
number of people are asked to choose
the heavier ball, which percentage do you
think will choose the red ball?
Mode Choice

t = 10 minutes t = 9 minutes
Mode Choice
For the logit assignment model, we
assume that the error has a logistic
distribution. There are two reasons for
this choice:
I. It is similar to a normal distribution
(which is nice, since the Central
Limit Theorem allows us to
represent many things as normally
distributed.
II. It allows us to easily write an
expression which tells us the
probability of one logistically
distributed variable being greater
than another logistically distributed
variable.
Utility
Utility is a measure of how good an option
is, where an option with higher utility is
favored (or considered better) than one
with lower utility.
The Logit Model
Assume that we have 𝑖 = 1,2,3, … N choices,
and each of them has a utility represented by
𝑈(𝑖) . If we assume that the error term
associated with each utility function has a
logistic distribution, the probability of
choosing alternative 𝑗 will be equal to:
𝑒 𝑈(𝑖)
𝑃 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑗 = σ𝑁 𝑈(𝑖)
𝑖=1 𝑒
Example - Logit Model
Situation: The Gotham City has again
commissioned you for a continuation of the
ongoing transport modelling work. Gotham
City has undertaken a number of surveys to
understand the communities travel mode
selection for their commute to work. From the
survey you have been able to derive the
following utility function form for private
transport and public transport use.
Example - Logit Model
𝑈𝑘 = 𝐴𝑘 − 0.05𝑇𝑎 − 0.04𝑇𝑤 − 0.03𝑇𝑟 − 0.014𝐶

Parameter Private Transport Mass Transit

𝑇𝑎 = access time (min) 5 10
𝑇𝑤 = waiting time (min) 0 15
𝑇𝑟 = riding time (min) 25 40
𝐶 = out-of-pocket cost (cents) 150 100
Calibration constant, 𝐴𝑘 -0.01 -0.07
Example - Logit Model
(a) Determine the share (proportion) of trips
by each of the two modes (private
transport and public transport) using the
logit model given the above utility function
form.
(b) An increase in the price of fuel has
changed the out-of-pocket costs for the
auto, mode to $1.80. Recalculate the
mode shares accordingly.
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
(a) Private transport (P):
𝑈𝑃 = −0.01 − 0.05 5 − 0.04 0 − 0.03 25 − 0.014 150
= −3.11

Public transport (T):

𝑈𝑃 = −0.01 − 0.05 10 − 0.04 15 − 0.03 40 − 0.014 100
= −3.77
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
𝑒 𝑈𝑃
𝑃 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 = 𝑈 + 𝑈
𝑒 𝑃 𝑒 𝑇
𝑒 −3.11
=
𝑒 −3.11 +𝑒 −3.77
= 0.659
= 66%
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
𝑒 𝑈𝑇
𝑃 𝑃𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 = 𝑈 + 𝑈
𝑒 𝑃 𝑒 𝑇
𝑒 −3.77
=
𝑒 −3.11 +𝑒 −3.77
= 0.341
= 34%
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
Therefore, 64% of the people of Gotham
City use private transport to commute to work
while 34% use public transport.
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
(b) Adjust private utility
Private transport (P):
𝑈𝑃 = −0.01 − 0.05 5 − 0.04 0 − 0.03 25 − 0.014 180
= −3.53
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
𝑒 𝑈𝑃
𝑃 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 = 𝑈 + 𝑈
𝑒 𝑃 𝑒 𝑇
𝑒 −3.53
=
𝑒 −3.53 +𝑒 −3.77
= 0.560
= 56%
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
𝑒 𝑈𝑃
𝑃 𝑃𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 = 𝑈 + 𝑈
𝑒 𝑃 𝑒 𝑇
𝑒 −3.77
=
𝑒 −3.53 +𝑒 −3.77
= 0.440
= 44%
Example - Logit Model
Solution:
The increase in fuel costs reduced the
private transport share to 56% from (66%)
while increasing the public transit share to
44% (from 34%). This resulted in a 10% mode
shift.