Seminar 't : planning aan defines

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*
Why plan ? ( Fnma single forecast prediction
sfhowtoplanforthefvture ? - scenario planning
- 'D # prediction future # inguinal
""e opportunities

Yaman
→

I
✓
↳ scenarios need to be generically! different

Multiple OPTIONS
I
→
holistic understanding
sionotfutwepathtotatd
ofseifeeniw Not scientific predictions
hit discuss on IMAGINED
<

Managers better @ planning Notexecution

and most likely
↳ since scenarios should devise
NOT
adjacent
different outcomes ( endgames
portfolio ↳↳ strangeforesight
n' scenarios -

create OPTIONS
→
•
cap
-
ofrepairorganisationtotaathemost
MY principals relevant effects rather than
predicting managers better @ managing the maniple contiguous
of futures
exploration possible ← x
givesOhlthlhghttllllltlttnto
-100MW
→
anomhnoans
'
hnrmhmnoun
,

stfattisshaonorent "initiation't Fat

A
Extremely long-term → htwevisionforlonguitnd company
Thetutweoftaleutin Singapore (2015
-

ufothl Obligation
business ) 4gangyos ,u→ "
↳ UPD : devised
→ baseline
rpegedarwidfednsto 4 m%thhYw
possibilities
fortress
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steady

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key drivers
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ft ti
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Portfolio of Options
* tradewarohinalvs

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predicted * soanminasea
unpredicted
#
-
constrain Prisoner
capability →
↳ bwadenufthatdoesnotlimit
① →
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discussion @
dreasilrto remedy a prisoner than a trader→ info driven commies hlaveahighlrhilttoclimb
-
↳ a
stage dgpendson
a user →

* options f- RANDOM diversification Butadjaancy ! famine'YaYIIh4Y%.ge/eFI9o'pHfoHsnefAastrakgyi inaaimaknghfofnway

eqypwleyfy.net#infn=hewvawePMP0siTi0n- ① complements current mametsyseysexpiorea.sn#remanagemeutce*wremtapped potential, ① Oyjfyfafffpftscopeofframewak
↳
.

-7dm" "'m't !

timeframe planning → horizon → determines how grounded

cost-effective Nfdto expand knowledge trstaueholdev identification
-_
→

② Establish processes
→
↳ wuiemsoning doable
I
ldenlilyhasictrendscnlegatrend↳
can

Pexpuimentation
:
→
Building company
a
capability base / → secondary trend,
② Exploration ↳
-

→
→ martainty
↳ Implemented
importing unoukge
integrate newcap devised KEY uncertainties

⑧ Optimize portfolio →
atutfffpmterhatueemdgube profitable
meet probable f yet
,

( reasonable ↳ Which potential future markets 1MW customer behaviour does company heedtoknow
'

paperiosts → leftoctintnehooks Either # mtiddewad

T
estimated Yanni'.tfi?oaminpta iniyn9uffeY9erasNeotop.i oi tote'
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⑧ Scenario &
matrix
options are feasible Narrative creation
↳ probability creating option will spawn future options → Alexas
'

freephone
cluster d- variables into one
'
Delphi method
'

→ keep
tactical opportunism within
company's overall direction
bandaryot.in#asofitaIYi sgeY.e oyftfaYhnY'eTHE
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spaunotf
abort
f
/ consistency
④ Constantly auditlupdate portfolio → wleatoptionsthatcavseitwanderhom longterm mission
④ Options considered → identity research
needs ↳ plausibility
( Relevant )
weed
←
↳ wer
y
etjostmaheswe
options are Iv
relevant
* iouotgethoggeddownllixakdonthis ⑤ Integration of scenarios into → managers communicated detail
scenarios

guideline → overlook ( weed → flower ; flower → weed ) ↳ ① Implication

current management process
-

ftp.gnment obshaf lsuwsofpdyewmgdesmondark

↳
of Options changes SINGLE forecasting MULTIPLE forecasting ( iterative process crosschecks'll's)
-

to ↳ ③ quantitative model → Notnecassamnu provides -

guidance
↳ they are 80ps to address mhtneedemathetopp → this POV erodes overtime '

Ath's idea will nolonohltrdlvant f

↳ creates decision paralysis ? → theydonotoreak f gtivedalato explain qualitative
interpretation
'

yes
infiniteoptions diverts away
↳ only 3-4 choices
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-

Aomthl
ihniewgrtoak
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went
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f f →
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-
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internal

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-
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-

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rot incremlexpo
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→
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chain

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→
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ienydednsire - establish eoodseanty
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resilience

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→
methodology
. -

causal
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)
advantage
unclear
predictable
§
lack
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y
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'
uncertainty Iviahitnaanindia
,

climate
,
True climate Emerging economies '
:

residual
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/ Africa

)
setting standards

↳
role to establish Mkt →

Shapers leadership :

→ → capture OPP a exploit aggressiveness

adapters ninthwspdlagilitylftexihihty
-

postures
:
→
avoid premature commitment fry
↳ incrementally ( sufficiently 'd
renren.ph/- play to -

- invest

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+
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:

→ no
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how to manage?

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-

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→
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wearable technology caoogleglasseskhips into

wearables ) .
 ③ Speed of change
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→

( old assumptions)
clever market positioning
competitive advantage by establishinganother
-

static)
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(
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reviews)
undertake strategic review ( corporate planning
voice auto
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:
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org org
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← ① Approaches -100g teaming → Learning org

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questioning of goals
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challenging assumptions on
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enriched offerings'
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intelligence
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competitive adr
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display historical
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 Seminar 't : planning aan defines
'

scenario planning is NOT science

fiction -> it is of no use to
managers at all -> needs to be
reasonably ascertained based on
*
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-
multiple worlds/ multiverse of situations

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scenarios need to be generically different

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↳ since scenarios should devise
NOT
adjacent !
different outcomes ( endgames
portfolio ↳
n' scenarios -

create OPTIONS
→
•
↳ strange foresight cap
-
ofrepairorganisationtotaathemost
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givesOhlthlhghttllllltlttnto
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↳ UPD : devised
→ baseline
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#
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constrain Prisoner
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-
↳ a
stage dgpendson
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.

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-

-7dm" "'m't !

timeframe planning → horizon → determines how grounded

cost-effective Nfdto expand knowledge trstaueholdev identification
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→

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→
↳ wuiemsoning doable
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ldenlilyhasictrendscnlegatrend↳
can

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:
→
Building company
a
capability base / → secondary trend,
② Exploration ↳
-

→
→ martainty
↳ Implemented
importing unoukge
integrate newcap devised KEY uncertainties

⑧ Optimize portfolio →
atutfffpmterhatueemdgube profitable
meet probable f yet
,

( reasonable ↳ Which potential future markets 1MW customer behaviour does company heedtoknow
'

paperiosts → leftoctintnehooks Either # mtiddewad

T
estimated Yanni'.tfi?oaminpput
ta iniynoptions
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⑧ Scenario &
matrix
options are feasible Narrative creation
↳ probability creating option will spawn future options →
'
Alexas freephone
cluster d- variables into one
'
Delphi method
'

→ keep
tactical opportunism within
company's overall direction
bandaryot.in#asofitaIYi sgeY.e oyftfaYhnY'eTHE
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spaunotf
abort
f
/ consistency
④ Constantly auditlupdate portfolio → wleatoptionsthatcavseitwanderhom longterm mission
④ Options considered → identity research
needs ↳ plausibility
( Relevant )
weed
←
↳ wer
y
etjostmaheswe
options are Iv
relevant
* iouotgethoggeddownllixakdonthis ⑤ Integration of scenarios into → managers communicated detail
scenarios

guideline → overlook ( weed → flower ; flower → weed ) ↳ ① Implication

current management process
-

ftp.gnment obshaf lsuwsofpdyewmgdesmondark

↳
of Options changes SINGLE forecasting MULTIPLE forecasting ( iterative process crosschecks'll's)
-

to ↳ ③ quantitative model → Notnecassamnu provides -

guidance
↳ they are 80ps to address mhtneedemathetopp → this POV erodes overtime '

Ath's idea will nolonohltrdlvant f

↳ creates decision paralysis ? → theydonotoreak f gtivedalato explain qualitative
interpretation
'

yes
infiniteoptions diverts away
↳ only 3-4 choices
* How-to devise practical scenario
-

Aomthl
ihniewgrtoak
- this into
went
↳ Mut condition depends •
Startin external drivers dseoinstanno,

whether for few options •

Build broad & diverse

f f →
scenarios did uan
warning
intorpinfo
early current

'Themhfifr.Ifhahihhfain.es#IHEntEtpopulation
man.info signs
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muwodologg
sua
A- data
meant wbeavalitative NOT
-

quantitative
unlessitsewesasagvidltogvalitativeddim
 + Business Theory: Is it relevant?
Seminar 8: Leadership Behaviour
1. Management Theory vs Layman Theory - is it subconcious/unconciously practice
management? -> it may be likely to be gut feel w no empirical research (Eg Donald
Trump’s trade policies are counter to theory application & bases on layman theory)
2. Management Theory:
a) empirical evd
b) circumstance contigent but varies differently

+ Integrative Thinking = MODE of Thinking (State of Mind)