Post-Covid Risks Outlook : A preliminary

Mapping and its Implications - From Capital

Market Perspectives: Investors’ Apetite
Stanislav Furta, Institute of Industry Management at RANEPA,
Full Professor,
Arman Arakelyan, School of Public Administration at MSU,
Assistant Professor
 Three challenges for Russian economy
Jury Soloviev, 1st Deputy
President and Chairman of
the VTB Bank Management Board

Despite the fact that over the past year the Russian economy has been able to return to pre-crisis levels of
business activity and employment, it is obvious that COVID-19 has not postponed other challenges…
https://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2021/11/29/

Opportunity No. 1 Climate track

Opportunity No. 2 Raw materials and energy market.

Making conditions for stable prices within the country

Opportunity No. 3 Accelerated digital transformation

How much does pandemic
influence the economic
background?
ALL TIME HIGH
“ The consumer price index will rise 5.8% at the end of the fourth quarter

“
from a year earlier, above the 5.5% estimated a month ago, according to
the median forecast of 47 economists in Bloomberg’s latest monthly
survey. However, some of the projections were submitted prior to
Wednesday’s October CPI data, which showed the biggest annual gain
since 1990.
“ The consumer price index will rise 5.8% at the end of the fourth quarter

“
from a year earlier, above the 5.5% estimated a month ago, according to
the median forecast of 47 economists in Bloomberg’s latest monthly
survey. However, some of the projections were submitted prior to
Wednesday’s October CPI data, which showed the biggest annual gain
since 1990.
“ The consumer price index will rise 5.8% at the end of the fourth quarter

“
from a year earlier, above the 5.5% estimated a month ago, according to
the median forecast of 47 economists in Bloomberg’s latest monthly
survey. However, some of the projections were submitted prior to
Wednesday’s October CPI data, which showed the biggest annual gain
since 1990.

(1.50-5.8)/1.058=-4.06
“ The consumer price index will rise 5.8% at the end of the fourth quarter

“
from a year earlier, above the 5.5% estimated a month ago, according to
the median forecast of 47 economists in Bloomberg’s latest monthly
survey. However, some of the projections were submitted prior to
Wednesday’s October CPI data, which showed the biggest annual gain
since 1990.

(1.85-5.8)/1.058= -3.73
Источник данных: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx
Графические интерпретации: составлено автором.
Risk
100%

it companies

ETF
G&E

Treasury Bank Deposits

Yield Real estate
0%
3% 10% 20% 100% Доходность
Risk
100%

it companies

ETF
G&E

Treasury Bank Deposits

Yield Real estate
0%
3% 10% 20% 100% Доходность
Localization and decentralization of
sold goods and services
Localization and decentralization of
sold goods and services
 Industrial
revolution on the
verge
 • Shipping Crisis And Container
Shortage
• Container prices from asia and to asia
are getting sunk by the pandemic
• from Cingapoor to the UK 473%
increase spot prices increase

Source: https://youtu.be/Q_pbRWmIcgs?t=114
Digitalization of
the governance
Digitalization of
the governance
Coronavirus and the
Formation of cyberspace
• Digitalization of existing economically inefficient systems
• Digitalization of «document flow»
• A holistic view of the economy using a single meta-model
of activity
• Currently fragmented, unrelated models. This is expressed
in "zoos" of poorly connected IT solutions both at the micro
level (enterprises) and will be compounded by the creation
of "zoos" of digital platforms at the macro level (industries,
the economy as a whole). Practice has shown that this
integrational approach has shown its inconsistency.
What about Russia?
Climate Track
Market of “Voluntary Carbon Units” analogous to
European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)

Decarbonization Law
Forest Green
projects construction
Renewable
power

Waste Waste
disposal disposal
 Raw Materials and Energy Market
Russia has a lot to suggest to consumers of ecologic goods…
https://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2021/11/29/

 Significant share of carbon-free electricity

 Gentle tariff setting regime for natural

monopoly services

 Attractive domestic market

 Strategic position between the centers of

consumption in Europe and Asia
 Accelerated digital transformation
Technological changes in the Russian reality can have ambiguous consequences. These processes will bring
increased levels of automation and digitalization, the above transition could free up substantial amounts of labor.
https://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2021/11/29/
Thank you for your attention
YOU ARE WELCOME TO ASK ANY QUESTIONS
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 YoY GDP Growth Rate Graph for 221 Countries (2010 USD)
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total number of countires number of counttries with ”negative growth”z

Источник данных: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx

Графические интерпритации: составлено автором