Donetsk City Attack

9/19/2022
I can’t actually show the
video or pictures
I can’t actually show the
video or pictures
Slides available at:
ryanmcbeth.com
48.010284, 37.769587
48.010284, 37.769587
Notice - This slide deck may contain dead bodies
Location
https://www.google.com/maps/@48.0103244,37.7699113,182m/data=!3m1!1e3
There are 3 videos
Outside the store - Facing South to start
Shall Fragments - Pivot To Store

Pan Left
Store facing - Southeast
Street view is from 2011 - Things change. Fence Missing.

Missing Fence.
Third Video is the Vertical Video - Ends Looking South
Third Video is the Vertical Video - Ends Looking South
Man with lost shoe

Looking West
Looking East
Man with lost shoe’s blood trail grows
Woman with pocketbook - (torso only) Looking South
Woman’s pocketbook disappears in video

Pocketbook
No pocket book
Dismembered hand - Looking North
We don’t see dismembered hand in video after this
Woman in red shirt by crosswalk near store

Looking North

Looking South
2 Torsos by Door - Looking South
One body is wearing a jacket - kind of odd
Green wall confirms location
One body next to green wall looking southeast
Confirmed by green bench supports
The locations of the bodies
The locations of the bodies

Lost Shoe
The locations of the bodies

Pocketbook (Torso)
The locations of the bodies

Woman with Red Shirt

The locations of the bodies

Bodies by the store

The locations of the bodies

Torsos only
The locations of the bodies

Complete Corpse
The locations of the bodies

Two bodies in the

side street
Point of Impact Analysis
Point of impact analysis

Credit to Eva K Bartlet

Shell hit right outside the building near the door.

Credit to Eva K Bartlet

Extensive Damage inside
Only Torsos were found near the impact site

Only torsos found

Broken windows in the store across the street
Artillery pattern >10% to front

~80% to sides ~80% to sides

<10% to rear

Direction of travel
Broken windows in the red building
Broken Windows in the brown building
Crater analysis
● According to FM 6-50
Crater analysis
● The detonation of a projectile causes an inner crater.
The burst and momentum of the shell carry the effect
forward and to the sides, forming an arrow which points
to the rear (toward the weapon from which the round
was fired).
Crater analysis
● The detonation of a projectile causes an inner crater.
The burst and momentum of the shell carry the effect
forward and to the sides, forming an arrow which points
to the rear (toward the weapon from which the round
was fired).
● This means that an arrow will point to the rear
Crater analysis
● The detonation of a projectile causes an inner crater.
The burst and momentum of the shell carry the effect
forward and to the sides, forming an arrow which points
to the rear (toward the weapon from which the round
was fired).
● This means that an arrow will point to the rear
If you look at the side splatter
The Arrow of debris points South
This means the round came from DPR lines
Note the radio antennas to the northeast
Radio antennas are great aiming points
But I’m not sure if the radio towers played a role
Things to note
Also note the lack of crime scene control
This car just drives through the crime scene
Why isn’t the street cordoned off with police?

No Police
This will be important later

No Police
What kind of shell was used?
What kind of shell was used?
● We need to talk about kill radius
What kind of shell was used?
● We need to talk about kill radius
● M777 Howitzer
What kind of shell was used?
● We need to talk about kill radius
● M777 Howitzer
● Firing a 155mm shell
What kind of shell was used?
● Kill Radius of 50-150 meters
What is kill radius?

28 M

15 M
Kill radius of a 155mm shell is between 50

28 M

15 M
And 150 meters

28 M

15 M
This is 50 meters on the map.
This is 150 meters on the map.
This is a 155 explosion - there would be more damage
A russian 152mm shell will be roughly the same
The building would have seen more damage
● We can rule out 155mm and 152mm shells
The building would have seen more damage
● We can rule out 155mm and 152mm shells
● We can rule out rockets like HIMARS or Tochka-U for the same reason
The building would have seen more damage
● We can rule out 155mm and 152mm shells
● We can rule out rockets like HIMARS or Tochka-U for the same reason
● We can rule out Grad rockets because they are volley fire
This leaves 122mm shells and 120mm mortars
According to the OSCE
According to the OSCE
● The DPR has about 35 D-30 howitzers
According to the OSCE
● The DPR has about 35 D-30 howitzers
● Maybe 7 120mm mortars
According to the OSCE
● The DPR has about 35 D-30 howitzers
● Maybe 7 120mm mortars
● Data as of 2020
Ukraine has ….
● About 85 or so D-30 122mm howitzers
Ukraine has ….
● About 85 or so D-30 122mm howitzers
● A great many 120mm mortars
Ukraine has ….
● About 85 or so D-30 122mm howitzers
● A great many 120mm mortars
● Including some from the UK
Max range of a 120mm mortar is 7.1 km
This is totally inside DPR
The only way would be if they fired on themselves
Note that shell fragments could have been planted
Let’s try to identify the shells from fragments
One Large fragment has a tapered base
It’s not a 120mm mortar (maybe deformation)
It’s most likely a 122mm shell
You get a close 122mm match but not exact
Deformation of the case, but definitely not 155/152 or 120
So most likely 122mm shell
The D-30 122mm gun has a max range of 15.4 kilometers

Point of Impact
So the round had to come from inside this circle

Shell must have originated from the circle

Was the shell fired from Ukrainian lines?
Russia uses your ignorance against you
● Only ½ of 1% of Americans join
The military
Russia uses your ignorance against you
● Only ½ of 1% of Americans join
The military
● So Russia has a 99.5% chance
Of fooling people who don’t
Understand how the military works
So how does artillery work?
Artillery 101 - 1/3rds behind its max range on attack
Attacking

Front

15 KM Total range
Artillery 101 - 1/3rds behind its max range on attack
Attacking

Front
5KM or 1/3rd range

15 KM Total range
Artillery 101 - 1/3rds behind its max range on attack
Attacking

Front
5KM or 1/3rd range

15 KM Total range
Artillery 101 - 1/3rds behind its max range on attack
Attacking

Front
5KM or 1/3rd range

15 KM Total range
Artillery 101 - 1/3rds behind its max range on attack
Attacking

Front
5KM or 1/3rd range

15 KM Total range
Location of a Ukrainian gun at max range
● If a gun is ⅓ max range attacking
Location of a Ukrainian gun at max range
● If a gun is ⅓ max range attacking
● 5km from the front is here at max range
Likely location of Ukrainian gun at max range
● But Max Range is all farmland
Likely location of Ukrainian gun at max range
● But Max Range is all farmland
Likely location of Ukrainian gun at max range
● But Max Range is all farmland
● No place to hide
Likely location of Ukrainian gun at max range
● We could put a gun in this settlement
Better cover among the town and suburbs.
But the suburbs and town is too close to the front
But the suburbs and town is too close to the front

TOO Close
But the suburbs and town is too close to the front
● Town is 2.76 KM

TOO Close
But the suburbs and town is too close to the front
● Town is 2.76 km from front
● Suburbs are 1.1 km from front
TOO Close
The other problem - The enemy gets a vote
● Counter-battery fire is deadly
With counter-battery radar
● Russia can detect incoming artillery
With counter-battery radar
● Russia can detect incoming artillery
● Russia can use drones to strike
With counter-battery radar
● Russia can detect incoming artillery
● Russia can use drones
● Russia can theoretically Counter-fire within 5-7 minutes
With counter-battery radar
● Russia can detect incoming artillery
● Russia can use drones
● Counter-fire within 5-7 minutes
● This may be longer with DPR troops
With counter-battery radar
● Russia can detect incoming artillery
● Russia can use drones
● Counter-fire within 5-7 minutes
● This may be longer with DPR troops
● I know Ukraine had shelled
breakaway areas before the war
With counter-battery radar
● Russia can detect incoming artillery
● Russia can use drones
● Counter-fire within 5-7 minutes
● This may be longer with DPR troops
● I know Ukraine had shelled
breakaway areas before the war
● But they never had to worry about
Effective counter battery
Shooting into a civilian area “for fun”
● Is pants-on head stupid
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:

● You kill some random

civilians
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:
● Spotted by radar
● You kill some random
civilians
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:
● Spotted by radar
● You kill some random
● Spotted by drone
civilians
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:
● Spotted by radar
● You kill some random
● Spotted by drone
civilians
● Counter Battery fire
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:
● Spotted by radar
● You kill some random
● Spotted by drone
civilians
● Counter Battery fire
● Loss of gun
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:
● Spotted by radar
● You kill some random
● Spotted by drone
civilians
● Counter Battery fire
● Loss of gun
● Loss of personnel
So why would Ukraine randomly shoot?
PROS: CONS:
● Spotted by radar
● You kill some random
● Spotted by drone
civilians
● Counter Battery fire
● Loss of gun
● Loss of personnel
● Loss of credibility with the
west
Ukraine loses if they lose credibility with the west
So where would DPR 122mm guns be?
Somewhere in this circle.
Artillery 101 - 2/3rds behind its max range on defense
Attackers

Front
10KM or 2/3rd range

15 KM Total range
Artillery 101 - 2/3rds behind its max range on defense
Attackers

Front
10KM or 2/3rd range

15 KM Total range
Artillery 101 - 2/3rds behind its max range on defense
Attackers

Front
10KM or 2/3rd range

15 KM Total range
This means DPR would have been 2/3rds back at least
This means DPR would have been 2/3rds back at least
This means DPR would have been 2/3rds back at least
Probably around here:
Behind Donetsk
Most likely Point Of Origin was one of these soccer fields
They cross the traffic circle on the way to the front
One is 1.37 km away
The other is 2.05 km away
So what the heck happened?
Short Round
A short round
You intend to shoot this far
But you loaded less propellent, the round goes short
The D-30 122mm fires full and reduced charges
If the mission called for full charge
To reach out to the front
But your gun team used reduced charge
But a reduced charge was used
But a reduced charge was used

Shell fell short by 11KM

The minimum range of a D-30 Howitzer is 1km
This matches the profile of a short round
Other evidence for a short round
This is why there was no cordoning off of the crime scene

No Police
Any why cars could just drive through the crime scene
Because Russia already know the Point of Origin
● They probably didn’t intend it.
Because Russia already know the Point of Origin
● They probably didn’t intend it.
● But it happened and it was a propaganda opportunity
Because Russia already know the Point of Origin
● They probably didn’t intend it.
● But it happened and it was a
Propaganda opportunity
● The round most likely originated from
47.996783, 37.787168
Because Russia already know the Point of Origin
● They probably didn’t intend it.
● But it happened and it was a
Propaganda opportunity
● The round most likely originated from
47.996783, 37.787168
● Or 47.998863, 37.775737