UKRAINE CRISIS & THE INTERNATIONAL NORMS

Soon to enter its fourth month, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made irreversible damages to global norms and order.
There were similar occurrences in the past when national and regional developments threatened to weaken the rules-based
order. Irrespective of their actual behaviours, great powers at least offered lip service to rules, norms and peaceful resolution of
disputes. Not anymore. Diplomacy, soft power and morality are replaced by the re-emergence of raw military power. Only
great powers write the international order—but since times immemorial, they have never been accountable for the very laws
they formulate. Some justify aggression in the name of international peace and security, and others brandish narrow national
interests. Either way, the redlines and punishment mechanisms are always the prerogative of the great powers. And Ukraine is
the latest example. Russia's two-decade-old economic revival has now taken an ominous militant form. Even if the eastward
expansion of NATO is an existential threat, the way President Vladimir Putin sought to challenge it is a warning for other
great powers and vulnerable smaller countries; great power will continue to rewrite the international order, and weaker ones
are condemned to suffer the consequences. This asymmetrical order was not the dream of the Yalta conference, which sought
to end the scourge of wars.

Two, the cavalier manner several public figures flag the possibility of World War III, and nuclear confrontation, should dispel
any notions of international norms. In the past, only maverick leaders made such statements filled with bravado. One can’t
escape this uncomfortable question: Was Ukraine foolish and short-sighted to give up and destroy its nuclear weapons in 1994
and join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state, just four years before the South Asian
tests? Similar questions were raised over North Korea and Iraq. Now the Russian invasion of non-nuclear and helpless
Ukraine sends an unmistakable message to hardliners in Iran: giving up the nuclear option or compromising enrichments will
be an open invitation for external interventions in the Islamic republic.

Three, the Ukraine crisis underscored individual and collective hypocrisies. Legitimising the Russian invasion has unintended
consequences. Saddam Hussein justified his invasion of Kuwait on the grounds of the latter siphoning off Iraqi oil through
slant drilling. Now Putin sees NATO expansion as a redline that must not be crossed. Like individuals, nations are also
short-sighted; the Crimean crisis of 2014 should have warned the Western strategic community of the Russian capabilities and
calculations. Even if the political leaders were indulging in wishful thinking, there should have been plans for the worst-case
scenario. Unfortunately, Washington did not do its homework before contemplating the expansion of NATO so close to the
Russian heartland.

Four, as the organisation of sovereign states, the UN is not a perfect body. Yet, it has been striving to limit conflicts and move
the world towards a more equitable order based on justice. The Ukraine crisis has pushed the UN back by several decades. In
1956, the UNSC was paralysed over the Suez crisis, as Britain and France, the major invaders of Egypt (along with Israel),
were permanent members. Hence, the issue moved to the UN General Assembly, which overwhelmingly condemned and
isolated the former colonial powers. However, the real force was US President Dwight Eisenhower, who strongarmed and
reversed the tripartite aggression. The situation is different today. Backed by China, Russia has paralysed the UNSC, and the
UN General Assembly is ineffective without a global hegemon. International condemnation and isolation of Russia make
headlines but are not sufficient to influence Putin.

Five, the Ukraine crisis reminds us of the flip sides of leaders with unbridled powers. As the invasion drags on, Russia's lack of
pre-war preparation is visible. The invasion was not a well-planned military strategy, and Russian generals were perhaps
bullied into submitting to political diktats. If regime change in Ukraine was the goal, the Russian generals are executing it
badly. Since the days of Carthage, wars have had one golden rule: you can initiate a war, but you can’t write its end.

Six, popular and intellectual anti-Americanism has paved the way for widespread justification of the Russian invasion. While
the crisis has exposed the policy limitations of the US and the West, any move to rationalise the Russian action has one danger.
Will the Ukraine crisis be a carte blanche for similar actions by other powers vis-à-vis their hapless neighbours? In short, will
Putin be a ‘precedent’ for Chinese President Xi Jinping to enforce his will on Taiwan?

Seven, uncertainties of the final outcome have compelled several countries, including India, to take refuge under political
realism and temporarily bury core issues like the inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Instead, they settle for
hedging to minimise the negatives and maximise their gains. Instead, this crisis should be an opportunity to explore and
expand policy choices for the future. With neither side prepared to climb down, an early end to the Ukraine crisis seems
elusive. Meanwhile, without a serious political implosion in either country, the world is condemned to endure the political,
economic and diplomatic consequences of the crisis and the systematic dismantling of the post-World War II international
order. (P R Kumaraswamy, Published in The Indian Express on 20th May 2022)

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 ELUSIVE DREAM OF NATIONAL INTEGRATION

“National integration implies the avoidance of divisive movements that will balance the presence of attitudes in the nation and
society that distinguish national and public interest from parochial interest”. —Myron Weiner

NATIONAL integration is not made by bricks and mortar, mould and hammer, but it quietly grows in people’s hearts and
minds through concerted efforts by society. It is a feeling of oneness that raises a nation above all narrow and divisive
tendencies and makes for genuine patriotism and progress. It is a socio-psychological and educational process that inculcates
this feeling of unity and harmony and develops a sense of common citizenship and loyalty to the nation. The region that
constitutes Pakistan today has for centuries been a melting pot of civilizations and center of interaction of different religions,
cultures, languages, political systems and thought processes. Each enriching the other and eventually evolving into what we
today relate to as Pakistani culture and identity. The importance of national integration cannot be overemphasized in Pakistan
which has a varied society and culture and a large population. Being different, we still feel that we somehow are all one nation
sharing same flag and same national anthem. Ironically despite this underlying feeling of a nation, the conviction of being a
single nation has never really taken roots in our society. Although created on the basis of two-nation theory, we, in Pakistan
have throughout struggled to curb ideological, parochial, linguistic and sectarian differences resulting in unending grievances
against the state. Stabilization and continuation of democracy, maintenance of sustainable economic growth, dispensation of
justice and provision of equal rights to all depend on prevalence of a strong sense of national integration. Pakistan faced
copious problems of language and ethnicity right from inception. Ethnic nationalism came in direct conflict with religion and
language in many parts of Pakistan. The clash of religion and ethnicity created political instability and adversely affected the
process of national integration particularly in East Pakistan with disastrous consequences. If we were cognizant of the extent of
the sensitivities of our Bengali brethren, paid heed to their genuine demands and tried to inculcate that feeling of national
integration and commonality of national interest, maybe we would not have had to face the tragedy of fall of Dhaka.
Unfortunately we are slow at learning from history and have short memories. Claims of enhancing and strengthening national
integration have been made by successive governments since 1971, but actual progress on ground is nothing much to write
about. Today again we are failing to recognize the real issues impeding national integration and brewing discontent,
deprivation, neglect, exploitation, alienation and even otherisation in Balochistan, KP, Southern Punjab, Urban Sindh and
Gilgit-Baltistan. It is the duty of every person as a citizen to oppose the forces and ideas that weaken national unity and
integrity.

“We are now all Pakistanis — not Balochis, Pathans, Sindhis, Bengalis, Punjabis and so on — and as Pakistanis we must feel,
behave and act, and we should be proud to be known as Pakistanis and nothing else’. Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah
said in a reply to Civic Address presented by Quetta Municipality on 15th June 1948 Taking its cue from the Quaid,
government needs to urgently focus on steering the process of national integration on priority as lack of internal cohesion,
peace and stability is the biggest threat to national security. History is full of stories of the fall of great civilizations as a result of
implosion due to fissures and corrosion in the architecture of national integration.

National integration solidifies the foundation of nationhood, which is crucial for national security against internal and external
challenges. In order to survive and develop, government must ensuring social justice, tolerance, rule of law, good governance
and democratic pluralism.

• A well-considered plan of action is essential which takes viewpoints of all stake holders. This would ensure essential cultural,
and political needs of divergent identities and minimize regional and provincial disequilibrium. This will also grant a sense of
ownership to federating units supportive of process of national integration.

• True empowerment of Local Body system is essential to narrow down the spread of mistrust, keep people satisfied, reduce
sense of deprivation and curb separatist tendencies. In China local bodies are the lynch pin in their development strategy and
phenomenal rise of China is result.

• Power must be delegated from provinces to local bodies for uninterrupted growth of the political process, ensuring
integration and participation of the local people directly into the mainstream political process.

• Priority must be given to projects that generate economic mergers, inter-provincial Interdependency and national integration.
• Inter-provincial internship and student exchange programmes be initiated immediately. Attractive incentives be offered to
qualified young professionals so that they work in provinces other than their home province.

• Inter-provincial sports, debates, drama, literary and art societies be set up and encouraged. State owned organizations and
Business community could be encouraged to sponsor inter-provincial students’ activities.

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• Implement former FATA merger plan in letter and spirit in order to address issues of judicious development in the region.

• Internal tourism be prioritized and people encouraged to visit different parts of the country to appreciate the differences and
celebrate the commonalities. This would help the people the true essence of the concept of “Unity in Diversity”.

• Syllabus of history and social studies be strengthened. Starting history books from Muhammad Bin Qasim has deprived
younger generation of rich and diverse cultural heritage that is a part of the ethos of the people of Pakistan.

• Emulating system in Indonesia, the largest Muslim country, government should standardize Jumakhutba by Mauvis. Islamic
Ideology Council could ensure that sermons in mosques areon issues of religious and social importance with authentic
interpretation and not leaning towards extremism and fundamentalism.

• Successive governments have taken half-hearted efforts to address the issues plaguing Balochistan, largest and most resource
rich province and yet least developed and most backward area of Pakistan. Balochistan is aching, people are suffering.They
need healing. They need compassion and an honest effort to resolve their genuine and urgent requirements. They are falling
victim to malicious designs of our enemies because we are failing to respond to their cries for help. A serious political dialogue
and effort is urgently required to bring peace and prosperity to Balochistan. Let us not go down the disastrous path of further
alienating them.

• Major political parties need to rise to the occasion and stop playing parochial politics. These parties must stop indulging in
petty personal squabbles and animosities and pay attention to major problems facing our nation lest these become existential
issues for us.

• Last but not the least, media ways have a huge responsibility for shaping public opinion and educating people. In era of
media explosion it can be a real agent for peace and war. What Pakistan needs today is serious, unbiased and patriotic media
promoting national integration and not further fanning the fires of division and hatred. (Naghmana A Hashmi. Published in
Pakistan Observer on May 10th, 2022)

China's rise and America's decline

The history of the world reveals the rise and fall of superpowers. After the first world war, four empires collapsed: the Russian
Empire, the German and the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman in 1922, and fourteen new countries emerged after the war.
Similarly,the Second World War consequences, 50 Africans, 17 Asians, two countries in Europe were formed,the collapse of
the British Empire, and the emergence of the USA and USSR as superpowers, the formation of the UN, NATO, and
WARSAW. The world was divided into two blocks. Fifteen countries emerged from the disintegration of the USSR, the
USA agreed with Russia that NATO would not be expanded, later 14 members of the former USSR joined NATO after the
cold war. Ukraine has the same importance for Russia as Afghanistan/ Saudi Arabia for Pakistan, Cyprus for Turkey, or Sudan
for Egypt.Ukraine intended to join NATO, a dangerous move from the Russian point of view, which resulted in war with
Ukraine. The outcome of the war will see the downfall of the US and the rise of China due to the following:

• The way the USA left Afghanistan abruptly is considered the beginning of the end of the American century. The allied
countries were surprised they were not even consulted. • In the winter Olympics in China, despite the US boycott, more than
30 heads of state from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, etc. attended the ceremony. • The UAE recently suspended talks on
a $23 billion deal to purchase American-made F-35 planes and is now buying 80 Rafale aircraft from France. • The UAE and
Saudi Arabian leaders declined calls with President Biden during the Ukraine crisis. • The US role in the Russia-Ukraine
conflict is not lucid, it is a failure of diplomacy, it will help Russia to improve its image as a big power. Ultimately Europe will
suffer economically which may cause it to move away from the US policies. • The cancellation of the French conventional
submarine deals by Australia abruptly and the formation of AUKUS in which Australia will acquire nuclear submarines from
the US and UKhurt the relations between France and these countries. Although not declared the sole purpose of the AUKUS,
QUAD is to contain China. • Saudi Arabia is in talk with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, a move that
would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude
exporter toward Asia.Meanwhile, US Dollar share dropped by 1.078 % in global transactions in February 2022. This may be
the first step but if other countries follow the dominance of the US $ will be diminished and Yuan will emerge as the main
currency. • India is buying cheap oil from Russia ignoring the US pressure. The US is also involved in changing the regime of
the countries. • The latest remarks of President Biden to change the regime in Russia sparked the world.

China has improved its image by gaining economic/ technological prosperity. The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) along with
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in which China has spent around one trillion US Dollars. China’s BRI
development strategy aims to build connectivity and cooperation across six main economic corridors encompassing China and:

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Mongolia and Russia; Eurasian countries; Central and West Asia; Pakistan; other countries of the Indian sub-continent; and
Indochina. This investment will strengthen the relations between China and these countries. The Chinese demands are quite
different from the US. The US sells its old arms and ammunition, invests less in these countries, involved in regime changes.
Chinese investment improves the infrastructure of these countries and improves the countries economically. Unlike the US,
China will never interfere with the politics of any country. China is also the biggest or one of the biggest trading partners for
most countries. China is flexing its military muscle, establishing its first overseas base in Djibouti, another in Equatorial Guinea
which will pose a strategic challenge to the US in the Atlantic Ocean.

Chinese ships patrol/exercise the Indian Oceanlittoral countries apart from the South China Sea. It is difficult to predict how
many years will be taken the US to lose and China will gain the status of a superpower. The policies of the US will strengthen
the case for China to emerge as a superpower. The allied countries are not happy with the US and developing/under
developing countries of the world are looking toward China for investment and to improve their economic conditions.
(Kamran Hashmi. Published in Pakistan Observer on May 11th, 2022)

DECODING THE BOSNIAN CRISIS

The Backgrounder focuses on the crisis plaguing Bosnia as well as its impact both domestically and internationally. Bosnia is
going through a period of crisis in both of its administrative units. On the one hand, it is a clash of interests between the
Bosnian Serbs Republic and the rest of the country, while on the other hand, there is the electoral clash between the Bosnian
Croats and the Bosniaks. Such identity-based clashes could spark the flames of separation, ethnic violence and major conflicts.
The relevance of the Dayton Agreement meant to connect the three identities also comes into question.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, situated in the western Balkan Peninsula of

Europe, had been plagued by ethnic strife and civil war for 26 years
until 1995.The main conflict was between the three dominant ethnic
groups in the country—Bosniaks, Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats.
The present-day Bosnia is also going through a period of crisis, the
main issues being the conflict of interest between the Bosnian Serb
republic and the rest of the country, also called the Republika Srpska
conflict, and the electoral conflict between the Bosniaks and the
Bosnian Croats in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In
order to understand the present crisis and the complexities of the
nation, it is important to understand the Dayton Agreement which
was signed in December 1995, to bring peace and stability
to the region and acts as an essential guide, particularly
regarding the functioning of the nation and its
government.
The Dayton Agreement After the breakup of Yugoslavia
in 1991, six republics were carved out from the federation,
namely Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. The collapse of
Yugoslavia saw the rise of ethnic nationalism, and the
groups began to show aggression towards one another,
which led to a war from 1992 till 1995. In order to
maintain peace and stability in the post-war period, the
Dayton Agreement or Dayton Accords was signed in
December 1995. The crux of the agreement was the
division of Bosnia into two administrative units namely,
the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (for Bosniaks and Croats) and Republika Srpska (for Bosnian Serbs) (Map 1).
Another important section pertained to the sharing of leadership among the three main ethnic groups. This basically meant a
four-year presidency, with the chairmanship as the presiding member of the Bosnian Presidency rotating every eight months.
Map 1: Bosnia & Herzegovina Republic and its two administrative units: the Republika Srpska (Serbs) and Federation of
Bosnia & Herzegovina (Bosniaks and Croats)

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The present post of the High Representative was created to ensure implementation of the agreement. The agreement also
gave the power to the High Representative to authorise decisions in case of clash of interests or when political and economic
interests are at stake. The spirit of the agreement was maintained to a large extent until the recent crisis.
The Republika Srpska Conflict The Bosnian Serbian President Milorad Dodik, is a known genocide denialist who had made
genocide denial a central theme of his platform and dominance in Republika Srpska. On 23 July 2021, the High
Representative Valentin Inzko introduced amendments to a Criminal Code which sanctioned the glorification of war
criminals convicted by final and binding judgements, genocide denial, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. The genocide
mentioned in the amendment is the Genocide of Bosniaks by the Serb Army in July 1995 during the Bosnian War. About
7,000–8,000 Bosnian Muslims were executed by Bosnian Serbs in Srebrenica. This amendment has been the main bone of
contention between the Bosnian Serbian leadership and Bosnia. Dodik is trying to push for laws that would see Republika
Srpska withdraw from the central institutions and threatens to create their own Bosnian Serb Army. The genocide law has
been declared void in the Republika Srpska. President Zeljka Cvijanovic has said that the law would not be imposed and that
they would not cooperate with the Bosnian state level institutions to implement the law. Legal expert Lejla Gacanica has
emphasised that any law imposed by the High Representative cannot be declared void, and that it would be applicable to the
entire Bosnia and Herzegovina including Republika Srpska. Members of the Parliament of the Republika Srpska have passed a
set of conclusions which is a step further towards transferring competencies from the state level to the entity level. This step
would see the Republic opt out of many state institutions, including the army, judicial institutions and the taxation authority.
This is being seen as a threat to secede, and could open up old wounds of ethnic conflict and lead to the old Serbian–Bosniak
divide. The divide on sectarian grounds could escalate into a civil war-like situation in the nation.
The Bosnian Croats Electoral Conflict The second major crisis plaguing Bosnia is a difference of opinion between the Bosnian
Croats and the Bosniaks on the eligibility and election of presidential candidates within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Under the
Dayton Agreement and existing election laws, both Croats and the Bosniaks can vote for both the Bosniaks and Croat
candidates since they fall under the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This had led to post-electoral dissatisfaction among
the Croats. The winner did not have the backing of the nationalists. They feel that the last elected Croat did not represent
them, which led to the protests by the nationalist Croats. Dragan Covic, the head of the nationalist Croat Party the Croatian
Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ), has further fuelled the demands for a separate electorate for the Croats.
These demands for a separate electorate have been resisted by the Bosniaks, thereby prompting Covic and his party to abandon
cooperation with them in various forums. With elections due in October 2022, this electoral crisis is currently at a slow pace.
However, if no solution is found, it could eventually lead to a race against time. This issue has further complicated the
situation in the country, which is already struggling with an ethnic crisis and which could quickly escalate and fuel the flames
of separation.
External Reactions to the Crisis The present Bosnian crisis has received reactions domestically as well as from significant
players like the United States, European Union and Russia, which are discussed next.

United States and European Union The United States has threatened to impose sanctions against all those who are opposing
the functioning of the Dayton Agreement, particularly hinting at Milorad Dodik. According to the US Embassy, “there is no
constitutional way for a single entity to unilaterally withdraw from state institutions”. US has sanctioned Dodik, accusing him
of corruption and threatening to destabilise the region. US has decided to weigh in the electoral crisis as well. In order to
ensure some solution to the crisis, it has sent an envoy Matt Palmer to work with the European Union (EU). EU has, within
its capacity, tried to solve the electoral crisis. Bosnia is not a member of the EU but had applied for its membership in 2016
and awaits the opportunity to join it. It is therefore understandable why EU has a strong influence in the country. The EU
representative in Sarajevo, Johann Sattler has been working hard on the election reforms, and held talks with the nationalist
parties to make changes to the election law as per the conditions set by the EU, without amending the constitutional
framework of Bosnia. The EU has initiated debates for sanctioning Dodik and the Republika Srpska including travel bans,
restrictive measures and freezing of assets. Relatively speaking, there has been reduced interest from the West vis-à-vis Bosnia
in recent times, however the recent crisis has brought a reaction from both US and Europe. Since US has its hands full with
COVID-19, China, and the Ukrainian crisis, its attention can be considered as waning but not completely removed. However,
EU is seemingly more proactive as it has more stakes at hand. The reaction of the Dutch United Nations Protection Force
(UNPROFOR) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the Srebrenica genocide in 1995, is also important.
The UNPROFOR had failed to take necessary military action to save Srebrenica, a town located in the easternmost part of
Republika Srpska. Airstrikes requested from NATO to keep the Serbian onslaught were never authorised despite requests
from peacekeepers on the ground. These slow reactions in the past worry the Bosnians, if there is any civil war or conflict in
the future. Therefore, it is important to have a more proactive EU involvement in the current crisis.

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Russia Russia is considered a supporter of its Slavic Serbian brethren in the conflict. Milorad Dodik had met the Russian
President Vladimir Putin on 2 December 2021, and the latter stated that attention was being given to the happenings in the
Republika Srpska. Russia could use this opportunity to further its influence and control in the region. This support for
Bosnian Serbs by Russia could have regional implications particularly after Russia’s warning of a reaction if Bosnia joins
NATO. Russia and NATO are currently in a state of war in Ukraine. Though Russia is currently at loggerheads with Ukraine,
Bosnia is a different situation. Ukraine belongs to Russian immediate neighbourhood and any NATO involvement in Ukraine
is seen as a direct threat to Russian security, whereas Bosnia is far from the neighbourhood and therefore, remains a region of
interest. Russia’s future plans of expanding its sphere of influence post Ukraine could see Bosnia play an important role,
particularly with Serbia, a Russian ally located next to Bosnia. There could be a direct clash with NATO whose member
Croatia shares a border with Bosnia. Thus, any plans of expansion of influence could lead to another front of conflict between
bitter old rivals—Russia and the West.

Conclusion The two crises in Bosnia and Herzegovina have put the nation in a red alert situation and there are high chances of
it erupting into a major conflict or civil war. If no serious efforts are made to solve the current crisis, there could be political
instability, which could in turn fan ideas of disintegration and separation. This situation could take Bosnia 26 years back to the
civil war era and ethnic conflicts, devastation and loss of life. If the situation worsens, it could also lead to a refugee crisis which
would further burden Europe, which is already suffering from an ongoing refugee crisis. Russia’s involvement in Bosnian
domestic politics would spark another front for conflict and have an impact on the European regional security paradigm. The
crisis, if it flares up, would also interfere in NATO’s quest for military expansion into the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
(Written by Jason Wahlang)

PAKISTAN’S ECONOMIC STORM & LESSONS FOR SRI LANKA

Covid19-related restrictions have devasted the world’s most vulnerable economies. The situation has essentially worsened
since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crushing countries whose Gross Domestic Product depends on exports of single-source
goods and services such as tourism, imports of essential goods such as fuel and gas, and sustained inflows of foreign funding,
loans and remittances. Being a tourism-dependent and imports-based economy, Sri Lanka appears to be the first casualty of this
economic meltdown.
Pakistan is facing a similar situation, chiefly due to rising prices of essential commodities like petroleum, edible oil, wheat and
other basic food items in the international market, not to mention increasing trade deficits, deficits in the balance of payments
and mounting public sector debt. The country has seen a massive depletion in Foreign Direct Investments over the last three
years. The freefall of the rupee against the dollar has heightened the risk of default, while political turmoil has added much
uncertainty to the financial market.
A country of more than 220 million people, Pakistan will need 29 million tons of wheat this year for domestic consumption.
However, it is projected to produce only 26 million tons. The country may also face a shortfall in the production of export
crops like rice and mangoes due to a severe water shortage from its rivers, a lack of rains, and drastic changes in weather
patterns. Rising electricity tariffs and load-shedding may also impact the country’s exports, specifically of textiles, sports items,
surgical equipment and other manufactured items.
To put the crisis unfolding now in perspective, the country’s fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 5 trillion rupees, while its
revenues are likely to be less than 7 trillion rupees. What this means is that unless immediate drastic steps are taken to rescue
the economy from possible collapse, Pakistan may head towards a Sri Lanka-like situation.
To be sure, this is not the first time Pakistan has encountered such a situation. As a result of decades-long instability, a lack of
long-term sustainable economic reforms and the imposition of sanctions via the Pressler Amendment, Pakistan reached the
verge of collapse in 1999. The imposition of further sanctions and a freeze on all in-country foreign currency accounts in the
aftermath of nuclear tests in May 1998 worsened its troubles.
With a Gross Domestic Product of around USD 62 billion at the time, Pakistan received a mere USD 1 billion as workers’
official remittances. Moreover, foreign direct investment inflows amounted to less than half a billion US dollars. Complicating
matters further, the installation of a military government in October 1999 resulted in the imposition of even further sanctions.
As a result, “[t]he country… faced a gap between external receipts and external payments of about $ 2.5 billion to $ 3 billion
annually for the next few years… Credit rating agencies downgraded the Sovereign Credit of Pakistan to Selective Default
Category.”
Facing imminent collapse, Pakistan approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and managed to get a “heavily
front-loaded” loan assistance of USD 1.56 billion. Not long after, “the IMF was able to complete all the reviews successfully

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and all the tranches were released on time. [As a result], IMF agreed to follow-up with a three-year Poverty Reduction and
Growth Facility (PRGF).” The results were visible enough. Pakistan’s agricultural and industrial input increased during this
period. By June 2001, its exports had risen to USD 9.2 billion.
It is pertinent to mention that countries like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China
played a pivotal role in charting Pakistan out of this crisis. The KSA provided free oil facilities to Pakistan for strategic
infrastructure after it conducted nuclear tests in 1998. The KSA and the UAE also extended oil import facilities on a deferred
payment basis after 9/11. China’s support for Pakistan at all international forums including the United Nations Security
Council remained consistent. The two countries would go on to sign the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the
second decade of the century.
Sri Lanka seems to be in a similar situation, probably worse than where Pakistan was in 1999. What can it do? In the short run,
it must approach and engage with financial institutions like IMF. This has more or less been done already. Regional allies also
need to be approached. That, however, would require political consensus and stability at home.
In the long run, Sri Lanka will have to diversify its economy from a tourism-only to a “tourism-also” economy. Given
ongoing worldwide disruptions in supplies of essential commodities like wheat and other food items, the country must focus
on becoming self-sufficient. Petroleum and petroleum products are by far the country’s biggest imports. There is thus a clear
need to shift to renewable energy sources. This will help not only in bringing down the import bill, but also in combating
environmental degradation.
As mentioned earlier, Pakistan’s economy is facing a serious financial crunch again. However, the country may not face a
grave situation similar to 1999 this time, because of several political and financial (internal and external) factors.
On the financial front, Pakistan’s GDP hovers between USD 300 and USD 350 billion, as compared to mere USD 62 billion
in 1999. The State Bank of Pakistan holds more than USD 10 billion of forex reserves, enough for 45 days of imports. By
contrast, in 1999 forex reserves amounted to a mere USD 900 million. Back then foreign investors were fleeing the country.
Yet today, by contrast, outflows of profits and dividends on foreign investments have risen over the first 10 months of the
current financial year – a positive sign for foreign investment.
On the political front, the government of Imran Khan, whose mismanagement resulted in economic failure in the country, has
been voted out. The current government has decided to take tough decisions: inter alia, approaching the IMF over the next
tranche of the ongoing assistance program and reducing subsidies on petroleum products and electricity.
On the external front, the KSA and the UAE are rescheduling payments of their security deposits with the State Bank of
Pakistan. China is also considering the resumption of the CPEC, which the previous government had paused. Moreover,
other than petroleum, Pakistan is presently able to manage 80% needs of its food basket internally.
Despite the optimism, though, it is clear that if Pakistan’s economy fails to cope with the crisis, the consequences will be felt
throughout the region. Being Pakistan’s closest neighbor and being heavily dependent on the import of essential items from
Pakistan, Afghanistan, in particular, will have to bear the brunt in the event of such a collapse. Therefore, stability in a country
like Pakistan is necessary for stability in the rest of the region. The region, for its part, must act together, while organizations
like the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) must be revived with a simple one-point agenda: the
welfare of the people. (Muhammad Aftab Alam. Published in NewsWire on May 29, 2022)

THE NEW GOVERNMENT AND BUDGET FOR 2023

The present coalition government, led by Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), is charged with the uphill task of preparing one
of the most difficult and critical financial budget for the next fiscal year. Pakistan will be moving into the next budget with the
economic mess left by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI), including historic high inflation rates, highest deficits and
stratospheric debt levels. The buffers are already exhausted and the biggest challenge would be to facilitate common man
whose hopes for a better lifestyle are already fast draining. The aphorism approach adopted by PTI incurred a heavy cost and it
failed to address the recurrent problem of a low revenue base and high debt levels, which ultimately squeezes space for growth
and social protection based spending on education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
At the time when, Pakistan is facing risk of default, its external liabilities coupled with increasing import bill are cannibalizing
its reserves and current account deficit is sliding southwards, the budget must be inspired by the vision of economic stability

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with taking cognizance of the fact that without adding new taxpayers to the books and removing undue preferential tax
treatments, the goal of sustainable growth can’t be achieved.
The targets given to revenue collecting agencies must be realistic and in cohesion with the resources and capability of the
system. In the past, it has been observed that on account of tax broadening, the authorities pass the load to existing or
compliant taxpayers in shape of new taxes and withholding provisions. Such knee-jerk revenue generating actions
compromise profitability of businesses in the formal sector, hence, this approach ultimately creates a vicious circle where at
first the law abiding and complainant corporate and non-corporate taxpayers due to these regressive measures resort to find
ways of tax avoidance and exploitation of anomalies in the system, eventually parting ways from formal system of economy
and then when government starts facing challenges of revenue collection and growth, it starts offering tax amnesty schemes at
regular intervals. The frequent amnesties lead to the protection and promotion of informal economy and wrong practices
which gives encouragement to informal sector as they become confident that after a short span of time, they will be given yet
another opportunity by the government to formalize their undocumented funds.
Based on the latest available Tax Expenditure Report for 2021 for federal taxes, based on data pertaining to fiscal year (FY)
2019-20, the value of exemptions and concessions was estimated at Rs. 1,314.27 billion. Tax expenditure in sales tax
amounted highest at Rs. 578.46 billion (44% of the total), while income tax related amounted to Rs. 448.05 billion (34%), and
for Customs it is estimated at Rs. 287.77 billion (22%). In FY 2019-20, FBR’s tax collection was Rs. 3,997.4 billion. Hence,
tax expenditure to total collection ratio comes to about 33%. In order to generate fiscal space for developmental and social
spending, government must ensure transparency and fairness in sales tax, income tax and provincial taxes. There are certain
provisions in income tax and sales tax laws which provide preferential treatment for various sectors, such concessions and
exemptions should be carefully reviewed and should be restricted to those sectors only which genuinely require government
support in order to flourish. The uncalled for exemptions extended to income and the perquisites of the military, judges and
key position holders must be revoked, with current economic situation where common taxpayer is squeezed to the last drop
such exemptions are unwarranted and un-ethical.
Another key example is of income from construction and housing sector, where government has offered reduced rate of
borrowing and banks have been given targets to doll out money. Due to this, there is a risk of misallocation of credit lending
where a particular sector is enjoying certain benefits at the cost of all others. For taxation purposes, the value of property needs
to be aligned with prevalent market rates — this gap between notified rates and market rates is already causing a huge loss to
treasury. Though, the regulator revised the tax slabs, however, they surrendered to the pressure from property business
representatives and market rates have been reduced. This reflects badly on governments resolve and ability to implement its
power, where a pressure group can maneuver to overturn the revenue generating step.
Presumptive tax measures like minimum tax which is based on turnover or taxes withheld is a blemished approach which acts
as a barrier for businesses in general, small and medium enterprises in specific as it disturbs their cash flows and they have to
rely on borrowing subject to high interest rates. However, the dependence of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on minimum
tax, withholding and advance taxes is increasing by every passing day as it is an easier way to generate revenue with less effort.
The most withholding agents/taxpayers are entrusted with this responsibility which originally belongs to FBR and that too
without any special incentive or return. Ideally, government should devise a mechanism where companies and sectors who are
collecting/withholding taxes and depositing taxes to government should be facilitated in shape of tax reduction or incentives.
Technology has changed the global landscape where local and international systems can be closely knitted together. However,
unfortunately the taxpayers in Pakistani are facing a situation where they have to deal with multiple revenue authorities at
national, inter provincial and intra-provincial levels, with conflicting tax rates and treatments. Their compliance becomes
complicated and costly. In Pakistan, sales tax on goods is collected by the FBR while sales tax on services is collected by each
of the four provinces in their respective territory. Sales tax on services in the Federal Capital Territory in Islamabad is also
collected by FBR, while Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan have their own tax authorities. To address this
challenge, the FBR has introduced the concept of “National Sales Tax Return”. However in parallel, the legislature must
ensure synchronization between federal and provincial tax laws to ensure ease of doing business and to help establish effective
business eco-systems.
Pakistan’s taxation system needs paradigm reforms in order to achieve sustainable taxation and economic growth.
Implementation of these reforms is subject to political will to chase non-taxpayers who are evading tax due to legal gaps. The
current government must continue to make efforts towards broadening of the tax base and developing the tax system in a
more simplified and technology friendly way.
The revenue collection agencies can source help through artificial intelligence and data analytics of various databases. The
systems must be designed to corroborate and analyze the tax returns and withholding tax statements data with information

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available at databases of provincial tax authorities, import stage tax collection database, property sale and purchase data
(through duties and transfer), data of utility providing companies, travel records, excise and taxation records, as it will help to
identify mis-declarations. (Abdul Rauf Shakoori & Dr. Ikramul Haq. Published in Minute Mirror on May 28, 2022)

NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA AND CHALLENGES TO STRATEGIC STABILITY

As he builds a theoretical explanation of Pakistan’s pursuance and acquisition of Nuclear Weapons, Feroz Hassan Khan in his
seminal work on Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Program, among others, refers to the work of realist (neorealist) scholars, who
reason that faced with an adversarial security environment, states either resort to external balancing (a commonplace
occurrence before the advent of the nuclear age) or internal balancing, which has turned out to be a more viable strategy after
the advent of the nuclear age.
Faced with a mammoth adversary next door threatening its survival, Pakistan did try to externally balance the threat from
India by entering into the US-sponsored SEATO and CENTO treaties, but given the alliances did not defend Pakistan against
the military threats and aggression from India, specifically in 1971 resulting into the disintegration of the country, Pakistan’s
leadership was essentially left with no other choice except to resort to internal balancing by pursuing a clandestine nuclear
program, which, given the highly oppositional international environment of the time, did accompany costly risks but was the
most viable lifeline to country’s territorial integrity.
Predictably, given the centrality of the nuclear weapons program to Pakistan’s defense, the program turned out to be a rare
venture that remained unaffected by the customarily frequent change of governments in Islamabad and even before it was
formally announced and acknowledged in May 1998, helped diffuse two crises between Pakistan and India, essentially setting
the stage for strategic stability in South Asia enabled by nuclear deterrence.
Despite the plethora of literature on the subject, there is little consensus on what led India to detonate its nuclear devices to
upgrade to weaponized capability in May 1998. Some rationalize India’s nuclear detonations citing the threat from China,
which (it is pertinent to mention) was almost dormant back then while the critical voices blame India’s long-held aspirations of
international prestige to secure a distinguished position at the “global high table”. Additionally, the role of domestic politics
was also cited as one of the most credible reasons given the ruling BJP’s jingoistic credentials.
Whatever the actual reason or combination of reasons might be, the Indian detonations did create a rightful pretext for
Pakistan to go overtly nuclear, which it did only 17 days later on May 28th, 1998. Resultantly, the conventional asymmetry
between India and Pakistan was offset by nuclear weapons, and India, as opposed to the initial expectation of realizing its
regional hegemonic and global prestige-centric ambitions owing to nuclear detonations, was left disadvantaged and its
motivations thwarted.
The policymakers in New Delhi, however, did not correspond with the new reality of the nuclear equalizer rendering their
edge counterbalanced, and soon started contemplating options to fight a limited war below the nuclear threshold as evinced by
the planning and final admission of the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). Pakistan’s response was swift and apposite as it developed
the short-range Nasr missile, essentially to plug the gap that policymakers in New Delhi were aiming to exploit via CSD.
Though with even minimum space left to unshackle their below nuclear threshold warfighting aspirations, Indians have not
given up as demonstrated by the botched delivery of ordinance by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in Balakot in early 2019. As the
aerial raids into each other’s controlled territories spread over two days finally saw an end, the Modi regime was left red-faced
after IAF was outgunned and outmaneuvered in the aerial skirmish, which led Modi to escalate one more rung up the
escalation ladder, only to be deterred by the threat of an even punitive response. Dangerous escalation with potentially
catastrophic consequences was indubitably minutes away but the crisis stability ultimately prevailed.
Despite moving to the brink on numerous occasions, crisis stability has finally been prevailing between India and Pakistan.
However, it is the other facet of strategic stability i.e. arms race stability that is consistently under stress thereby imperiling
broader strategic stability in South Asia. Motivated by security considerations and international prestige aspirations, India
features among the world’s top arms importers and has recently embarked upon a massive military modernization and
expansion drive. While the Indo-US nuclear deal has enabled India to vertically proliferate its nuclear weapons program, the
acquisition of modern military systems by India being supplied by both the USA and Russia strains the overall balance of arms
in South Asia with Pakistan compelled to take countermeasures, which, however, do not illustrate a classic parity-driven arms
race but by making qualitative and quantitative changes in its weapon systems, Pakistan’s objective is to maintain deterrence
capability enough to deter “full-spectrum” of threats emanating from India.

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Pakistan, however, with a smaller economy compared to the size of the Indian economy is always in a disadvantageous
position concerning qualitatively modernizing and expanding its weaponry, and the latter’s interminable thirst for the state of
the art weaponry continues to imperil strategic stability in South Asia. (Hamdan Khan. Published in Modern Diplomacy on
May 29, 2022)

THE US-CHINA “THUCYDIDES TRAP” AND PAKISTAN

In my earlier essay published in July 2020 in this paper, I had argued that the US, as a ruling global power, and China, as a
rising global power, are caught in the “Thucydides Trap,” which The Harvard Professor Graham T Allison, in one of his
lectures a year ago, alluded to as an inevitability (of course, with a caveat) of an armed clash between the Ruling Power (the
US)and the Rising Power (China). His observation was based on his theory that took the name of the great Greek thinker,
philosopher and the founder of History (c,460-400 BC ) Thucydides. He wrote his first History book called, “The History of
the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens,” 2500 years back. Athens, as a strong City State, was the Ruling Power
and was challenged by Sparta, a Rising Power in ancient Greece. The Peloponnesian Wars resulted in the total ruin of Athens
and the rise of Sparta as a leading power in Greece. The theory was put to test over the past 500 years by Harvard University,
in which 16 conflicts between the Ruling Powers and the Rising Powers were observed during five centuries, and it came out
that out of 16 cases of Thucydides Trap, 12 resulted in wars, which none of the protagonists won, and in the majority of the
conflicts, the war was provoked by a third party.
Professor Allison argues that perhaps, with the meteoric rise of China as an economic global power and its endeavours to catch
up with the US in technology and military power, the country is caught in the “Thucydides Trap.” The question is can the
two sides defy the Thucydides Trap and escape the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which could result in a catastrophic
military conflict, given the most devastating land, air, sea, nuclear, space, cyber, and an electromagnetic array of weapons the
two sides possess. Since World War ll, the US as a leading global power has been waging wars all over the world, including in
Latin America, East Asia, the Middle East, and West Asia. All the wars that the US Army has waged after the second World
War have resulted at best as test grounds for new military weapons and at worst brought death, destruction, and misery to
millions. While the Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping has declared that China must have a “modern army which can fight and
win,” but Chinese leadership has adopted a “Dialectical Security Philosophy” contrary to US “Technological
Superiority/Monopoly Philosophy.” The Chinese believe that there is no such thing as “Absolute Security” since, if one side
develops an offensive weapons system, the targeted adversary will ultimately be able to develop its way to defend, so they bid
for time, and do not normally rush in matters of war, while the US approach is to overwhelm the adversary with technically
more sophisticated weapon systems. In the case of the China and US conflict, there is a rough parity, which constrains the US
to undertake any precipitous Military venture without risking a matching Chinese response. The Russian invasion of Ukraine
has added yet another complexity to US-China relations. China has reaffirmed the universally recognized principle of
inviolability of internationally recognized state boundaries of sovereign nations. It has abstained on UN Resolutions tabled at
the UN Security Council as well as UN General Assembly. The US-China confrontation for global dominance would most
likely define the world order unfolding in the near future. Pakistan, in the past few decades, has deftly managed balanced
foreign relations with the two world powers. Since 9/11, Pakistan was fully engaged as an active partner with the US in its war
on terror albeit, at a substantial human and material cost. The relations with China termed as “all-weather Iron brothers ‘led to
strategic partnership in China’s flagship multi-billion-dollar One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) with a projected outlay of about 60 Billion US Dollars, was launched with lofty objectives to
upgrade Pakistan’s infrastructure and strengthen its economy by the construction of modern transportation networks, several
energy projects and special economic zones. There was a national consensus that Pakistan would not be part of any political
block and that it would like to have balanced strategic relations with both the superpowers. However, the recent internal
upheaval caused by the ouster of the PTI Government and the so-called “Lettergate “seems to have created a wave of anti-US
sentiment. The former Prime Minister has been openly claiming that the US hatched a conspiracy to oust him and that the
present government, which he calls the “imported government” has been foisted by the US.His public pronouncements are
laced with nationalistic and anti-American rhetoric. According to analysts, the foreign conspiracy narrative helps Imran Khan
deflect public anger away from his failure of governance and economic mismanagement during his tenure as PM . . Pakistan is
in the midst of a serious economic crisis and its dependence on IMF and The World Bank for sailing through the economic
crisis. Also, the Pakistan Military has a long strategic relationship with the US Military in terms of equipment, training and
even Military Warfare doctrine. Therefore, it will be in Pakistan’s interest to continue this mutually beneficial relationship
based on the universally recognised principle of sovereign equality.
Pakistan’s internal security is intrinsically linked to the peace and stability in Afghanistan. Afghanistan, unfortunately, seems to
be descending into a status of a nonfunctional state with broken or nonexistent governance structures, the state actors are fast
encroaching upon more space to extend their respective terrorist activities. The wave of terrorist acts in Afghanistan in which

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scores of civilians have died seems to be an attempt to deplete further the weak writ of the Taliban lead government in Kabul.
As stated earlier by one of the US intelligence officials, international terrorist outfits could launch terrorist operations against
the US and the West. The US will require Pakistan’s cooperation in Afghanistan. The US and Pakistan have a strategic interest
in not allowing international terrorist organisations to regroup and launch large scale terrorist operations in the world from the
Afghan territory.
Pakistan and India, two historical rivals, are armed with nuclear weapons. The relations between the two neighbours have
deteriorated in the past three years since India illegally annexed the disputed territory of Indian occupied Kashmir by
abrogating the Indian Constitution article 370 The US-Pakistan relations also are vital for keeping nuclear restraint in South
and West Asia. The “accidental” firing of an Indian ICBM on Pakistan’s populated area is a stark reminder of the very thin
nuclear risk threshold on which nuclear deterrence rests in South Asia. Pakistan- US relations have strategic significance for
Nuclear Security in South Asia.
There are a number of mutual strategic interests that should bind Pakistan -USA relations. The two countries are following a
democratic and Parliamentary system, the respective democratic deficiencies notwithstanding. The two countries should
continue to cooperate for strengthening democracy and democratic institutions from threats posed by indigenous as well as
exogenous anti-democratic Forces. In my view, Pakistan does not have to choose sides in the unfolding of what can be termed
as a “Bipolar-Plus World Order,” in which the US and China would be the main global actors, while there would be other
centres of power with varying degrees of areas of ascendency and global reach, which may include EU (dominated by
Germany and France), India, and Japan in Asia Brazil in Latin America, South Africa and Nigeria in the African Continent. In
the unfolding Bipolar Plus World Order, Pakistan’s geostrategic and geo-economic interests can only be ensured by following
a balanced foreign policy, which should follow the golden principle of friendship with all and malaise against none.
(Ambassador G Rasool Baluch. Published in Daily Times on May 19, 2022)

PAKISTAN’S TRADE WITH CHINA AND INDIA

Trade is a cornerstone of important economic policymaking. In order to expand trade, many countries have chosen Free
Trade Agreements (FTAs)/Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). An economy dominated by global value chains and
underwritten by regionalism has impressed upon the countries to opt for FTAs. In order to discuss free trade agreements, trade
between Pakistan and China, and trade between Pakistan and India; we refer to Shahid Yusuf’s publication F-19150-PAK-1 in
the International Growth Centre, 2020 and Akbar Zaidi’s chapter on the political economy of neighbourly relations in his
book “Issues in Pakistan’s Economy,” published in 2015. Shahid Yusuf writes, “Through FTAs, countries can strengthen
linkages created by GVCs (global value chains) and forge other strategic ones as well leading to larger flows of FDI. Trade
agreements covering a large region are particularly advantageous because firms can specialize and reap scale economies. In
addition to greater access to markets, technology and skills, FTAs are attractive because they can spur reforms – as in the case
of China prior to its accession to the WTO – including trade liberalization and bring about a simplification of rules governing
trade. Hence FTAs/RTAs have proliferated.”
FTAs/PTAs support multilateralism. However, WTO data suggests that trade enhancing impact of FTAs/PTAs is likely to be
“modest” since most countries already have agreed to tariff reductions under GATT/WTO. Akbar Zaidi is of the view that
PTAs established on the basis of competitive rather than complementary economies are more likely to be effective to create
opportunities for trade and product specialisation.
South Asian Free Trade Agreement was executed in 2004 and it materialised in 2006 but it has performed at a very
sub-optimal level. It has not generated much trade amongst its members. Exports are just six per cent and intraregional trade is
only three per cent. South Asia has the lowest intraregional trade that makes up five per cent of total regional trade in the
world. Unless India and Pakistan relations improve, SAFTA is not going to perform to its optimal level. This is in direct
contrast to India and China’s bilateral trade, which is highly substantial despite the border dispute between the two of them.
Yusuf refers to a World Bank research to state that trade in South Asia could increase threefold from its current level and this
increase in trade could lead to injecting the needed foreign direct investment into the economy. To cite an example, the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has made crucial investments in energy, infrastructure, and transport. However,
there is a dire need for foreign direct investment in the export-oriented sectors in Pakistan.
There are advantages as well as disadvantages to trading between a lower-middle-income economy of Pakistan with a GDP of
$313 billion in 2018 and China, which is the world’s second-largest economy with $13.6 trillion. The first FTA was
negotiated between China and Pakistan in 2006. Its second phase was finalised in 2019. Trade between Pakistan and China
that was less than $800 million in 2000 increased to $3.5 billion in 2006. Pakistan largely imported machinery, transport
equipment, iron, steel, yarn, and textiles from China. However, China imported textile yarn, resource-based products, and
fabrics from Pakistan. The total Pakistan and China trade was roughly to the tune of $ 13.5 billion in 2017-18. Pakistan

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imports $11.5 billion worth of goods from China; while exports $1.7 billion worth of products in a similar range of
manufactures as mentioned above. Over the years, Pakistan’s exports to China have increased twofold while China’s exports
to Pakistan have increased threefold. It shows that more industrialised countries have an edge while trading with less
developed countries. Pakistan needs to carefully negotiate the terms of trade with other countries. Pakistan should not
compromise its long-term economic growth goals while pursuing medium-term trade arrangements. Akbar Zaidi asks the
question of whether Pakistan needs to trade with India meaningfully or can it remain in the bubble of a “non-peace, non-war
environment.” Though there are two views on trade with India; Zaidi is emphatic that trade with India would be beneficial to
Pakistan. Moreover, trade with India would help to bring down hostilities between the two countries. It is hard to understand
why the pro-status quo forces in Pakistan are opposed to trade with India. Despite the so-called claims of “independent
foreign policy;” various Indian governments have not been able to pursue an independent foreign policy post-Nehru. Indian
governments post-Nehru have been as much influenced by the US, the West, and important countries in the Middle East for
decades as Pakistani governments have been for ages. Indian governments have been as much controlling and influencing their
Indian civil society, academic, media and other organs of the state and society for decades as much as Pakistani governments
have been controlling their civil society, academia, media, and other organs of the state and society just like the rest of the
world whether the US, the UK, the Middle East or the rest of the world. Whether it is the developed world countries or
developing countries; the governments control and influence the rest of the society and the government and the state
institutions. So, when Pakistan and India are both in the Western camp and have been influenced by the West and are still
being influenced by the West; why are the pro-status quo forces in Pakistan opposing open trade with India? Is it to keep the
narrative of the “hostility with India alive” for the sake of showing it to the public, so that they can claim large amounts of the
budget for their institutional interests year after year, decade after decade? Right now, direct trade between India and Pakistan
is not high in volume and indirect trade through a third country or smuggling is much greater. The actual trade (the majority
being the illicit trade) is four to five times greater than the official trade. And it incurs a loss to both countries. For example, as
far back as 2004, it was estimated that Pakistan could save $110 million a year if it directly bought tea from India rather than
Kenya or any other source. Other statistics paint a similar picture. Pakistan is losing out by not trading with India. Due to this
reason, civilian governments in Pakistan have been for opening up trade with India but it has been opposed by the status-quo
forces in the country. Zaidi refers to the Ministry of Commerce study in Pakistan, “The study looked at a number of sectors in
the Pakistan economy and concluded that ‘the economic benefits of liberalising trade with India outweigh costs’. Consumers
in Pakistan would benefit ‘unambiguously’ because of lower prices, and the government will get far greater revenue from
legalising the existing illicit trade. Moreover, ‘important segments of producers would also benefit because of increased
competitiveness and market access to a much larger Indian economy.” Whether it is trade with China, CPEC, or trade with
India; the government and the state in Pakistan must do thorough homework and look at the long-term growth prospects of
the country and play to its advantage while minimising the risks. There would certainly be costs of opening up the trade but
the benefits outweigh them. (Foqia Sadiq Khan. Published in Daily Times on May 28, 2022)

THE RETURN OF THE GREAT POWER RIVALRIES

Herr von Tschirschky, a diplomat and politician in imperial Germany, said on New Year’s Day 1906 in Hamburg:
“Germany’s policy always had been, and would be, to try to frustrate any coalition between two states which might result in
damaging Germany’s interests and prestige; and Germany... would not hesitate to take such steps as she thought proper to
break up the coalition.” Tschirschky, who would become Foreign Secretary in two weeks, was referring to the Franco-British
Entente and Germany’s growing concerns about it. The security situation in Europe was undergoing massive changes. The
Russian power had collapsed in its far east after the war with Japan in 1904-05. Faced with the erosion of Russian influence
and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany, which together threatened to alter Europe’s balance of power, France and Britain,
competing colonial powers, came together. France had already reached an alliance with Russia. The three would later form
the Triple Entente, triggering a dangerous security competition in Europe with the Triple Alliance (Germany,
Austria-Hungary and Italy), which would eventually lead to the First World War in 1914.
Similarities from the past There are similarities between events in Europe today and what happened in the late 19th and early
20th centuries. What triggered the great power security competition in the run-up to the First World War was the
phenomenal rise of Wilhelmine Germany as a military and industrial power and the regional hegemons’ response to it. When
Otto von Bismarck became the Minister-President of Prussia in September 1862, there was no unified German state. Prussia
was part of the loose, ineffective German Confederation. Bismarck adopted an aggressive foreign policy, fought and won three
wars — with Denmark, Austria and France — destroyed the confederation, established a stronger and larger German Reich
that replaced Prussia. In the last 20 years of Bismarck’s reign, Germany, and Europe at large, saw relative peace. That was not
because the Chancellor had turned a peacenik but because he was constrained by the geopolitical realities of Europe. Bismarck

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stayed focused on transforming Germany internally in his last two decades. It was on the foundation Bismarck built that
Wilhelmine Germany turned to weltpolitik in the early 20 century, seeking global domination. If Bismarck inherited a weak,
loosely connected group of German speaking entities in 1862, Russian President Vladimir Putin got a Russia in 2000 that was
a pale shadow of what was the Soviet Union. Russia had lost huge swathes of territories, its economy was in a free fall, its
currency had crashed, the living standards of millions of Russians had collapsed and the global stature of the country, which
had been one of the two pillars of the post-War global order for almost half a century, had fallen. Bismarck spent his years in
power expanding the borders of Germany and building a stronger state and economy. His successors took it further to
challenge the existing great powers in Europe. The post-Cold War Russia initially stayed focused on the restoration of the
state and the economy, and then sought to expand its borders and challenge the continent’s balance of power — first the
Crimean annexation and now the Ukraine invasion. The existing great powers in Europe saw Germany as a threat to Europe’s
balance of power and joined hands to contain its rise. Germany, on the other side, saw the formation of the Entente as an
existential threat and took steps to weaken the alliance (The 1905 and 1911 Morocco crises and the German intervention in
the Bosnia crisis in 1908). The parallels are hardly to be missed. If Germany was seen as a revisionist power back then,
Vladimir Putin’s Russia is today’s revisionist power in Europe. If Germany felt insecure by the Triple Entente, as Tschirschky
warned in 1906, Russia has constantly voiced concerns about the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO). If the Entente countries looked at the rise of Germany as a threat to European power balance, the
western alliance continued to see modern Russia as a security challenge, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. While
NATO’s expansion deepened Russia’s security concerns, driving it into aggressive moves, Russia’s aggression has strengthened
NATO’s resolve to expand further into Russia’s neighbourhood.
On ‘offensive realism’ The behaviour of 20th century Germany and 21st century Russia can best be explained using what
John Mearsheimer calls “offensive realism”. Offensive realists argue that “revisionist powers” tend to use force to rewrite the
balance of power if they find the circumstances are favourable, while the status quo powers, or the existing regional hegemons,
would seek to thwart any new country attaining more power at their expense. The result of this type of competition is
permanent rivalry and conflict. Look at Mr. Putin’s offensive moves. He sent troops to Georgia, practically ending that
country’s NATO ambitions. He took Crimea without fighting a war. He sent troops to Syria not just to save the regime of
Bashar al-Assad and protect Russia’s Mediterranean naval base in Tartus but also to neutralise Turkey and Israel, both Syria’s
neighbours. He reinforced Russia’s primacy in Central Asia by bringing peace to the Nagorno-Karabakh and dispatching
forces to restore order in Kazakhstan. These successes probably raised the confidence of Russia, prompting its leaders to
believe that it was finally strong enough to change Europe’s balance of power forcefully. Then, Russia invaded Ukraine. But
one major difference between the era of Wilhelmine Germany and modern Russia is that there were no well-defined
international laws in the 19th and early 20th centuries. The international system has evolved ever since. But its basic instincts,
as realists would argue, have not changed much. Mr. Putin’s Russia is not the first country that violated the sovereignty of a
weaker power and flouted international laws in the “rules-based” order. Nor will it be the last. As the Athenians told the
Melians during the Peloponnesian War, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.
Security competition As the Ukraine war grinds into its fourth month, there are no clear winners in Europe. Russia apparently
had two strategic objectives in Ukraine — one, to expand Russian borders and create a buffer. And two, to reinforce Russia’s
deterrence against NATO. While Russia has succeeded, though slowly, in expanding its borders by capturing almost all of
Ukraine’s east, the war has backfired on its second objective — Russia’s inability to clinch a quick outright victory in Ukraine
and the tactical retreats it has already made have invariably dealt a blow to the perception of Russian power that existed before
the war. This has strengthened NATO, driving even Sweden and Finland into its arms. Besides, the economic sanctions
would leave a long-term hole in Russia’s economy. But a Russia that is bogged down in Ukraine and encircled by NATO
need not enhance Europe’s security. Russia’s advances in Ukraine may have been slow; it seemed ready to fight a war of
attrition like the long wars European countries fought against each other in the past. And despite the strong resistance it faced
in Ukraine, Russia remains too strong a military and geopolitical power to be brushed aside. As Henry Kissinger said at Davos,
Russia had been and would remain an important element in the European state system. The prospects are bleak. There will
not be peace in Europe unless either Russia accepts its diminished role and goes into another spell of strategic retreat (like it
did after the disintegration of the Soviet Union), or Europe and the West in general accommodate Russia’s security concerns.
Both look unrealistic as of today. This means that even if the war in Ukraine comes to an end, the security contest in Europe
would continue. The post-Cold War period of relative peace and stability in Europe, anchored in liberal internationalism, was
an aberration rather than a norm in the continent’s long history of conflicts. And what makes the latest round of great power
rivalry more dangerous is that there are nuclear weapons on both sides. (Stanly Johny. Published in The Hindu on May 30,
2022)

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 THE COMING WORLD ORDER
The war in Ukraine is part of the struggle for a new world order. Russia and China are openly challenging the Pax Americana.
But what the next world order will look like remains an open question. In Moscow and Beijing, but also in Washington, the
model of a multipolar concert of the great powers, with exclusive zones of influence, is finding support. Despite a growing
unwillingness to play the role of world policeman, however, the majority of Americans have not yet abandoned the unipolar,
American, liberal world order. And there is still support, not only in China, for the Westphalian model with its emphasis on
nation-state sovereignty and its condemnation of post-colonial meddling in internal affairs.
These three models envisage very different ground rules. Who is authorised to use force—all states, only the strongest or only
the hegemonic power? Does the law of the strongest apply or the strength of the law? Is there a historical ideal (such as liberal
democracy and a market economy) towards which all states will (or should) develop, or are there multiple modernities with
competing political systems and cultural civilisations which can coexist more or less peacefully? Will there be a global
showdown between an alliance of democracies and the ‘axis of autocrats’? Or is the price of peace giving up on implementing
universal human rights?
Which of these models will prevail—or from what precise mixture of old and new elements the new world order will
emerge—will determine not only war and peace but also what the global energy, production, distribution and finance systems
of the future look like.
Biggest shake-up
In the German debate, under the immediate impact of the war, the focus has mostly been on how to deny Russia the revenue
from its oil and gas exports without asking too much of consumers who are dependent on Russian energy supplies. In the long
term, this dependence is to be reduced by accelerating the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Less attention is paid to the
efforts of China and India to avail themselves of the cheapest possible supplies on the Russian energy market without being hit
by western sanctions. And far too little is being paid to the efforts of important suppliers and their customers to ‘de-dollarise’
the international energy trade. It takes little imagination to foresee the biggest shake-up in global energy trading since the
oil-price shocks of the 1970s. What is less clear is the direction in which the energy system will move. Given the continuing
geopolitical confrontation, the imperatives of climate protection and energy security are pointing in the same direction. On
the one hand, this is likely to accelerate further the exodus of global capital from fossil industries. On the other hand, the
industrialised countries are technologically still not in a position to free themselves from their addiction to fossil fuels. And it is
precisely the bridging technology of natural gas which has hit a geopolitical dead-end. In the short term, Germany will hardly
be able to close the looming supply gap without committing climate-policy sins involving coal and nuclear power. In the long
term, alongside renewable energies, the international supply chains for hydrogen need to be developed at pace. In the medium
term, however, this means having to satisfy the demand for gas by diversifying suppliers. Surprising shifts of alliances, involving
old enemies (such as the United States and Venezuela) and old friends (such as the west and the Arab monarchies, Russia and
Kazakhstan), cannot be ruled out. How quickly, in this competitive world, the need to secure national energy supplies can
collide with the principles of value-based foreign policy was something the new German government had to discover in its
very first days in office.
Hidden trend
Since the 2008 financial crisis, global trade and cross-border investments have not really picked up again. The Covid-19 crisis
has made people more aware of the vulnerability of global supply chains. The failure of China’s zero-Covid strategy and the
drastic lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai indicate that, two years after the outbreak of the pandemic, the risk of disruption
to global supply chains has still not been eliminated. If parts from the far east are missing, assembly lines in Europe come to a
standstill. The paradigm shift away from efficiency (‘just in time’) to greater resilience (‘just in case’) is accelerating the hidden
trend towards deglobalisation under way for some time. Geo-economic as well as geopolitical motives favour the shortening
and unbundling of supply chains, and are now driving the separation and isolation of markets. The US is trying to slow down
the economic rise of its rival China. Behind the scenes, pressure from both is mounting on their allies and on third countries to
choose sides. Europeans and Asians are still resisting being drawn into this new cold war. But the disputes over gas pipelines,
chip manufacturers, and the 5G communications infrastructure show how quickly companies and entire states can get caught
between opposing fronts. The ultimate outcome of this development could quite possibly be rival blocs which make it difficult
or impossible for unwanted competitors to gain access to their markets. Hardly had they escaped the sanctions applied by the
US administration under Donald Trump before German companies found themselves facing headwinds on the Chinese
market. Nevertheless, the majority are resisting the pressure to decouple from China, while some double down on the
Chinese market despite ever-worsening conditions. Given the importance of that market, the call in the US government’s
Indo-Pacific strategy paper, published in February, to reduce through diversification one-sided dependencies therefore often

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goes unheard. But the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine might alter this calculus. Hardly anyone would have thought
it possible that the west would react so quickly, so strongly and with such unity to Russian aggression. Russia’s expulsion from
the SWIFT financial-transfers system and the sanctions against the Russian central bank, as also the voluntary withdrawal of
western companies from the Russian market, have made their mark—not least in China. Even some in Germany were
surprised at how quickly supposedly sacred cows such as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline were slaughtered. This experience of
enormous public and political pressure is likely to lead many German companies to reassess their strategies vis-à-vis other
‘problematic markets’. Should the sales opportunities for German business in global markets be closed off in the medium term,
Germany will have to rethink what it is willing to do to lead the vital European home market out of its protracted crisis. The
realignment of the global economy according to geopolitical interests is putting key industries such as German vehicles under
pressure. If the engine of growth falters, distributional conflicts within and between societies intensify. Fear of social decline is
increasing even among the middle classes. This fear of decline is the sounding-board populists use for their agitation against the
preconditions of the success of the export model: free flows of goods, capital, people and ideas. The global trend towards
protectionism is thus driven not only by external factors but also by internal pressures. In such a world, there can no longer be
any world champions in exporting. Germany above all will therefore have to rethink its export-oriented economic model.
Geostrategic motivation
When western critics discuss the Chinese silk-road project, their focus is usually on debt traps or the creation of political
dependencies. There is a justified suspicion that the mammoth project represents a Chinese push to become a dominant power
in Asia and the world. Less well known, however, is the geostrategic motivation behind the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Since the end of World War II, the US has established bases on a chain of islands running from Japan in the north to Indonesia
in the south. And since the administration of Barack Obama announced the ‘pivot to Asia’, it has been concentrating its forces
there. Between the straits of Malacca and Hormuz—the Americans call these ‘choke points’—the US and its allies can block
Chinese trade and supply routes at any time. China feels encircled and reacts in an aggressively defensive manner. The aim of
its arms build-up in the east and south China seas is to break through the ‘first island chain’, and to drive the US out of
Chinese coastal waters. Chinese hawks go one step further, wanting to force the reunification of the ‘unsinkable American
aircraft carrier’ Taiwan with the motherland. As Chinese bombers fly over Taipei, Chinese propaganda accuses the US of
challenging the status quo by questioning the ‘one China’ policy and thus provoking conflict. This is a highly dangerous poker
game, not only because Taiwan produces indispensable semiconductor chips but also because from the perspective of the
Americans, traumatised by Pearl Harbor, the defence of their homeland begins at the first island chain. So in the Taiwan strait
lies a fuse which could set off World War Three. By means of the BRI, China is therefore trying to break out of the
American stranglehold towards the west. The immediate goal of the numerous ports, corridors and railway lines is to prevent
the disruption of Chinese supply routes. The initial enthusiasm of the landlocked states of central Asia shows the high hopes
held by its partners that the strategy for connectivity along the ancient silk road will lead to prosperity gains for all. The real
prize, though, lies at the other end of Eurasia—the European market, which is supposed to guarantee sales opportunities for
Chinese products in the long run. If Beijing succeeds in tying Europe closer, China and Russia will have taken a big step
towards their goal of neutralising US influence in Eurasia. With the start of a new cold war, however, a new ‘iron curtain’
threatens to cut through the silk-road project. From China’s point of view, that would be a geostrategic catastrophe. This is
one reason why China, despite the only recently proclaimed ‘limitless friendship’ with Russia, does not really provide
substantive assistance to its junior partner. (The second is the Russian recognition of two breakaway provinces, Donetsk and
Luhansk, of a sovereign state, Ukraine—looking at Taiwan, this is a Chinese horror scenario.) Beijing thus has a vested interest
in a quick end to the Ukraine war, while reluctant to take on the responsibility of a mediator. If this does not happen, China is
likely to push forward with the expansion of the maritime silk roads.
Reserve currency
From the point of view of Chinese strategists, following the decline of American industry, the remaining foundation—and
thus Achilles’ heel—of US hegemony is the role of the dollar as the reserve currency on the international goods and financial
markets. China has therefore been tinkering for some time with an alternative to the SWIFT system (‘CIPS’) and a digital
currency (Digital Yuan, e-CNY). Neither of these instruments is yet ready, however, to pose a real threat to the greenback.
Chinese hawks see in the sanctions against Russia an opportunity to attack the supremacy of the US dollar. The freezing of
Russian central-bank reserves has put all the world’s central banks on high alert. In order not to be blackmailed themselves,
they are likely to shift reserves on a grand scale. If this is at the expense of US investments, it could destabilise the dollar’s
position as the global reserve currency. The role of the US dollar as a transaction currency is also a source of frustration. After
all, inflationary pressure emanating from the American money press is passed on around the globe by all those actors who rely
on the dollar for conducting their cross-border trades. Russia, China, India and Iran have therefore been trying for some time
to ‘de-dollarise’ their economies by using a broader basket of currencies for foreign trade. It is hence hardly surprising that

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Russia now wants to settle its oil and gas transactions only in roubles. China’s attempts to de-dollarise its foreign trade also
align with Beijing’s strategic goal of upgrading the global status of its currency. But if a US ally like Saudi Arabia is seriously
negotiating to settle its oil deals with China in yuan, this shows how widespread is the resentment of the hegemon. This is not
risk-free: after the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, the dollar was tied to the central commodity of fossil industrial
capitalism by the clearing and settlement processes for the global oil trade. If other members of the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries were to abandon the petrodollar, the returning greenbacks would in the short term probably further
increase inflationary pressures in the US. In the long run, the Chinese renminbi and blockchain-based cryptocurrencies could
mature into stable transaction currencies. Strategists sceptical towards the US believe that if the dollar’s functions as a reserve,
investment and transaction currency continue to erode, its position as the global reserve currency could begin to totter. Even
after a decade and a half, however, efforts at ‘de-dollarisation’ have not seriously jeopardised the position of the dollar as the
reserve currency. As recently as last year, 90 per cent of all foreign-exchange transactions continued to be settled in dollars and
60 per cent of all central-bank reserves were invested in the currency. The blockchain cryptocurrencies in particular are a long
way from being able to replace the dollar. And whether a Chinese (digital) currency without open Chinese financial markets
can actually take over the functions of a reserve currency is doubtful. American experts therefore believe that the dollar’s
position is even more entrenched today, because foreign central banks know that in an emergency the Fed will do everything
to shore up the dollar-denominated part of the financial system.
Global power relations
What the coming world order will look like will be decided by global power relations. Russia has overestimated its strength.
Even if Moscow still succeeds in winning the war in Ukraine militarily, in geopolitical terms it will fall back into the second
tier, as China’s junior partner. The new instability on the European continent is however likely to dampen the economic
outlook for western Europe as well. Following the Ukrainian reality check, geopolitical dreams of an independent European
power pole will therefore certainly be re-evaluated by EU member states. This leaves only China and the US as powers
capable of setting and maintaining order. This explains why Washington and Beijing do not wish to be drawn into this
‘European conflict’: the two superpowers read the conflict above all through the lens of their competition over global
hegemony. Accordingly, American hawks want to ‘bleed Russia dry, topple Putin and signal to China to keep its hands off
Taiwan’. Although this is not uncontroversial in Washington, a bipartisan coalition for a cold war against the ‘alliance of
autocracies’ has already been in place for some time. In Beijing, on the other hand, there is still disagreement as to whether it is
really in China’s interests to disappear behind a new Iron Curtain alongside a weakening Russian pariah, or whether China
would not benefit much more in the long run from an open world order. Geopolitically, it would therefore be a fatal mistake
to lump the Chinese and the Russians together over-hastily on an autocratic axis. It would be better instead to examine
together what a rules-based, multilateral order might look like—one that provided a framework within which the core
interests and security concerns of all the powers could be peaceably negotiated and reconciled. Those who think this
unrealistic should remember the last cold war: then, too, co-operation between systemic rivals within the framework of agreed
ground rules was successful. (Marc Saxer. Published in Social Europe on May 5, 2022)
ASEAN & U.S.-CHINA’S INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGIES
With U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Asia scheduled for later this month, Japan’s ambassador to the U.S., Koji Tomita,
stated on May 9 that the latter may officially launch a new American economic strategy for the Indo-Pacific region when he
shuttles in Japan during his tour. The new economic strategy referred to here is the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
proposed by the Biden administration on October 27 last year at the 16th East Asia Summit.
Biden had claimed that it will define the “shared objectives around trade facilitation, standards for the digital economy and
technology, supply chain resiliency, decarbonization and clean energy, infrastructure, worker standards, and other areas of
shared interest”. The framework is extremely broad, covering multiple emerging and non-traditional economic sectors.
In the past, the United States focused on security and defense capacity building in its strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, with
the establishment of security alliances like the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United
States (AUKUS), the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), and the Five Eyes alliance. In addition, it carried out frequent
military exercises with countries like the Philippines and Singapore. Comparatively, the U.S. strategy in the economic field is
relatively weaker. This is especially true given its 2017 withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Its economic
strategy in the region appears to have vanished since then. If the new framework is used as a geo-economic tool to increase its
influence in the region in order to contain and weaken China’s influence, it is consistent with the United States’ Indo-Pacific
and global strategies.
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework includes Japan and South Korea in East Asia as American allies. They are part of
Washington’s spheres of influence. India, a major South Asian country with global ambitions, is also the largest ally the United

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States seeks in Asia. For the U.S., India is one of the important support bases in this strategy. The other key area for the U.S. in
its push to achieve a large strategic alliance is the ten ASEAN countries located in the Western Pacific. It is even possible to
argue that the attitude and participation of ASEAN countries in this plan will determine, to a large extent, the United States’
success or failure in promoting this Indo-Pacific economic strategy.
When speaking at the CSDS-CSIS Transatlantic Dialogue on the Indo-Pacific on May 9, National Security Council
Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell stated that the most important message from Biden’s visit to Asia in late May will be
that this is an urgent task to be accomplished in the wake of the current crisis in Ukraine. He insisted that the greater
fundamental challenges of the twenty-first century lie in the Indo-Pacific region.
Campbell said that at the beginning of the Biden administration, the Indo-Pacific strategy mainly focused on cooperation with
partners in the region. Now the U.S. and European partners also have intensified contacts and dialogues on Indo-Pacific affairs.
With the crisis in Ukraine, the U.S. was widely expected to turn its attention to Europe, leaving little attention to the
Indo-Pacific, but the opposite is true, said Campbell. He noted that the Indo-Pacific region’s unprecedented broad
commitment to Ukraine reflects the fact that some of these countries see Ukraine as a “cautionary tale” and do not want
similar military operations to take place in the region. This, in turn, prompts a great deal of strategic thinking.
Notably, Campbell declared that his most important responsibility as the Indo-Pacific Coordinator is to ensure that the
framework is more synergistic among leaders in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., that they will consider the action plan for
implementation. He hopes the U.S. and Europe will “seize this opportunity, probably the next couple of years, because we do
not know how long it will last”. Now the U.S. intends to work with Europe on matters with global consequences, not only
on the Ukraine issue but also on future Indo-Pacific strategies and tactics.
Researchers at ANBOUND point out that the war in Ukraine has expanded the U.S. definition of the Indo-Pacific strategy
and economic framework, and that it is utilizing the war to strengthen the window period for U.S.-European relations.
Simultaneously, the U.S. is also leading its European allies that geographically belong to the Atlantic partnership to support the
Indo-Pacific strategy. With such an effort, the United States hopes it will be able to unite as many allies and partner countries
as possible, impose its influence and even dictate the international political and economic affairs in the region. This should
allow it to effectively restrain China, its perceived major strategic competitor.
According to ANBOUND’s researchers, the framework is an attempt by the U.S. to establish a more diverse communication
and cooperation with the Western Pacific region through economic collaboration. ASEAN nations are expected to play a
crucial role under such a mechanism. What is certain is that China and the U.S. will center their game around ASEAN as the
U.S. promotes its Indo-Pacific economic strategy. We believe that in the future, the key to the broader game between China
and the U.S. in the region lies in ASEAN. For China, ASEAN is not only geographically close, with some of these countries
being neighbors, but it is also China’s largest global trading partner, with increasingly closer ties. If the U.S. does not include
ASEAN in its Indo-Pacific strategy and economic framework, there will be a huge gap. The same is true for China. If China
cannot maintain close economic ties and stable geopolitical relations with ASEAN, China will become rather a passive
onlooker in the global geopolitical game in the future. (He Jun. Published in Modern Diplomacy on May 13, 2022)
The Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) signed by a total of 13 countries, on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo is being dubbed
by many as a means of checking China’s economic clout in Asia and sending out a message that the US is keen to bolster
economic ties with its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Many Chinese analysts themselves have referred to the IPEF as ‘Economic NATO’. China has also been uncomfortable with
the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) which consists of US, Australia, Japan and India , and has referred to Quad as an
‘Asian NATO’ – though members of the grouping have categorically denied that Quad is an ‘Asian NATO’.
Countries which joined the US led IPEF are Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand,
the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. These countries together account for 40% of the global GDP. The four
key pillars of the IPEF framework are; supply-chain resilience; clean energy, decarbonisation and infrastructure; taxation and
anti-corruption; and fair and resilient trade.
While launching the plan, US President, Joe Biden said:
‘We’re here today for one simple purpose: the future of the 21st Century economy is going to be largely written in the
Indo-Pacific. Our region,’
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo while commenting on the IPEF said that it was important because it provided Asian
countries an alternative to China’s economic model. A few points need to be borne in mind. First, many of the countries —

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Australia, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam
– which have signed the IPEF are also part of the 15 nation Region Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade
agreement of which China is a key driver (Indonesia, Phillipines and Myanmar have not ratified RCEP). RCEP accounts for
30% of the world’s GDP. Trade between China and other member countries has witnessed a significant rise, year on year
in Q1 of 2022. Second, many of the countries, which are part of the IPEF, have repeatedly said that they would not like to
choose between China and US. The Singapore PM, Lee Hsien Loong who was amongst the first to hail the IPEF, has
emphatically stated this point on a number of occasions. In an interview to Nikkei Asian Review on May 20, 2022, Lee Hsien
Loong reiterated this point. In fact, Lee Hsien Loong even pitched for making China a part of the Comprehensive and
Progressive Partnership for Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (TPP the precursor to the CPTPP was a brain child of the US).
Said the Singapore PM:
‘We welcome China to join the CPTPP,’.
Here it would be pertinent to point out, that China had submitted an application for joining the CPTPPIN September 2021.
In the interview, Lee Hsieng Loong did state that countries in Asia needed to have good relations with US, Japan and
Europe. Indonesia’s Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi who attended the signing of the IPEF on behalf of the President Joko
Widodo stated that he did not want to see IPEF as a tool to contain other countries.One of the reasons why many countries
are skeptical about the IPEF is the fact that it does not have any trade component. A number of ASEAN member states have
pointed to the IPEF making no mention of tariffs and market access as one of its major draw backs. At the US-ASEAN
Summit, held earlier this month Malaysian Foreign Minister, Ismail Sabri Yaakob had referred to this point. Like many other
countries, Malaysia has welcomed the IPEF, but in the immediate future sees RCEP as a far greater opportunity. US President
Joe Biden has not deviated significantly from the policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump, with regard to trade and the US is
unlikely to return to the CPTPP at least in the immediate future. Biden and Senior officials in his administration have spoken
about the need to check China’s growing economic influence, specifically in Asia, and to provide an alternative model. While
the US along with some of its Indo Pacific partners has taken some steps in this direction (only recently, leaders of Quad
countries during their meeting at Tokyo announced that they would spend USD 50 billion, in infrastructural aid and
investment, in the Indo Pacific.
Given his low approval ratings, and diminishing political capital it is unlikely that he is likely to change his approach towards
trade significantly. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the TPP was ‘fragile’, and that there was no domestic support
for the same. In conclusion, while the IPEF does have symbolic importance it is important to bear in mind that many
signatories themselves have close economic relations with China and would not like to get trapped in competition between
US and China. Unless the US re-examines its approach towards trade, which is highly unlikely, and unless countries which are
part of the Indo-Pacific vision are able to strengthen economic cooperation, China is likely to dominate Asia’s economic
landscape – even though there is growing skepticism with regard to the same. (Tridivesh Singh Maini. Published in Modern
Diplomacy on May 27, 2022)

LESSONS TO LEARN FROM THE CURRENT FOOD CRISIS

The world has been facing a food crisis of a magnitude that has not been seen for many decades. The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that “the number of people facing acute food insecurity and requiring
urgent life-saving food assistance and livelihood support continues to grow at an alarming rate”.
As per the previous State of Food Security and Nutrition (SOFI) Report, about 237 crore people in the world faced moderate
to severe food insecurity in 2019. Of these, about 62 crore - the largest in any single country - were in India alone. It is
expected that the numbers on food insecurity and hunger would be significantly higher for 2020 when these are published
later this year.
International Organisations such as the FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have been arguing for a long time that
conflicts and wars are the primary causes of the increase in food insecurity in recent years. They have also held the
Ukraine-Russia war as being primarily responsible for the recent increases in food insecurity.
The Global Network Against Food Crises created by the European Union, FAO and WFP has estimated that four
crore additional people in 53 most food-insecure countries are in urgent need of food assistance because of the recent spike in
food insecurity.
While conflicts and climate change do adversely affect food security, holding them as primary causes of the rise in food
insecurity undermines deeper, more important causes of the current crisis. Globalisation, and in particular trade liberalisation,

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over the last few decades has created a sharp imbalance in the levels of support provided to farmers in developed and less
developed countries. As a result, while the global south has become a source of food commodities that cannot be produced in
developed countries, it has become increasingly dependent on large-scale agriculture in developed countries for staple food
commodities. In addition, with the withdrawal of public funding in agricultural research in the global south, international big
agri-businesses have acquired monopoly control over the supply of modern inputs for agriculture. Globalisation has not only
resulted in increased volatility in food prices, but it has also created the conditions in which millions are vulnerable to short
term disruptions and volatility.
The current global food crisis must be seen in this background. Disruptions of supply chains, imposition of economic sanctions
(particularly on Belarus and Russia), crop failures due to extreme weather events and the Russia-Ukraine war have led to a
sharp rise in food prices. Fears of scarcity have led several countries to introduce export restrictions. According to IFPRI’s
Export Restrictions Tracker, currently, 19 countries have restrictions on exports of different food commodities. These include
Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Ghana,
Burkina Faso, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Kosovo, Serbia, Hungary and Argentina.
Fertiliser exports have been restricted by China, South Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Ukraine. Many of these countries are
major suppliers of important food commodities resulting in a considerable gap between the global supply and demand of
cereals, edible oils, pulses and sugar.
Along with this, supply shortages and high inflation of fuel and fertilizers have adversely affected the global food supply. With
national food self-sufficiency compromised as a result of trade liberalisation, export restrictions on food and agricultural inputs
by major suppliers is expected to result in a significant worsening of food insecurity in the global south.
One must not make the mistake of thinking that high food prices are good for farmers. Prices that farmers get for their
produce are not as high as consumer prices. Further, an increase in the cost of cultivation eats into the benefit of higher food
prices. Given the inequality of ownership of land, a vast majority of farmers in the global south are small producers who are
net buyers of food. Inflation affects them even more adversely as they sell their produce cheap and are forced to buy food and
other necessities when they are dear.
The key lesson countries need to learn from the current food crisis is that domestic self-sufficiency in the production of staple
food is important for large countries. Achieving this requires public investment in agriculture and food systems.
Agricultural research and assured supply of key agricultural inputs have to be prioritised by countries. Incentivising farmers to
produce key food crops and creating robust systems of social protection are critical for food security and policies that have
undermined these must be reversed. (Published in Deccan Times on May 29, 2022)
The free fall of the rupee against the US Dollar and other major currencies has sent alarm bells ringing among the stakeholders
of the agriculture sector, who rely on imported inputs like seeds, fertiliser, pesticides and machinery. They fear that an over 14
per cent drop in the value of the local currency since March 1 this year is set to further increase the cost of production for
farmers, disturbing rural livelihoods as well as jeopardising national food security. The American currency was being sold for
Rs202.34 this weekend against the rate of Rs177.41 on March 1, 2022, a fall of around Rs25 or 14.05pc in less than three
months, whereas this decline is Rs79.34 or more than 60pc since August 2018, when the dollar-rupee parity stood at 1:123.
The devaluation is fuelling a hike in the prices of farm inputs like fertilisers, seeds, pesticides, diesel (consumed by water pumps
for irrigation purposes), and electricity costs. This reducing purchasing power of the rupee is causing the growers to go for
‘bad’ decisions: the preference for cheaper but low-quality alternatives though these may lead to dwindling yields of crops.
“Import prices of farm inputs have shot up because of the currency devaluation. And the levy of 17pc general sales tax on
imports has further worsened the situation, making quality farm inputs unaffordable for a majority of the small landholders,”
says Momin Ali Malik of the Guard Agricultural Research & Services Private Limited.
“The growers are compromising on the standards of the farm inputs as the sale of quality hybrid rice seed has so far dropped by
20pc at least in Punjab.” Calling for the reversal of the GST to offset some of the negative impacts of currency devaluation, he
warns that the use of substandard or traditional seeds will mar the crop yield and this will ultimately harm national food
security. A similar 15 to 20pc decline in the sale of imported corn seeds has been reported by Jawad Ahmad, an agricultural
consultant from Sahiwal. He paints a gloomier picture for the autumn sowing of maize when the impact of the depreciating
rupee on import costs will be more visible after June. The pricing factor coupled with water blues has cut the paddy
cultivation by 40 to 45pc in Sahiwal, Pakpattan and Okara districts, he says. “As canal water is not available for irrigation
purposes, the growers have to depend on water pumps to lift sub-soil water. But higher power tariff and costlier diesel in view
of the rising fuel prices in the world markets are barring the farmers from adopting the water-guzzling crop as they apprehend
that it will become uncompetitive in the market.”

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The region is also witnessing a diesel shortage these days creating hurdles in the harvest of spring corn and rice cultivation.
Farm machinery, fertiliser and pesticide markets are witnessing similar jolts due to the sliding rupee. For example, the Belarus
tractor which was available for Rs2.4 million three years ago is being marketed for Rs4.3m these days. According to Mr
Ahmad, this imported machine may now become affordable only for big landlords and farming cooperatives. Likewise, the
price of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) has crossed Rs11,000 per 50kg bag mark, while it used to be sold for Rs6,500 per
bag two years ago. Though urea compost is locally manufactured, its rate has gone up to Rs2,700 per bag this week against its
official sale price of Rs1,768 per bag. This was available at Rs2,200 to Rs2,300 per bag during the peak Rabi season earlier this
year.
Though the prices of agricultural produce are also going up, these are not in proportion to the escalating cost of production
creating a disparity between the incomes and expenses of the farmers, making them poorer and reducing their purchasing
power to acquire farm inputs. Former chief of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce & Industry’s committee on
agriculture, Mr Ahmad says the rupee depreciation has pushed up fertiliser prices by 150pc, making it difficult if not impossible
for the farmers to apply them in their fields. This in return is forcing crop yields to decrease as organic matter in the soil is dead
and cannot give proper returns without the application of phosphate- and potassium-based composts. “The farmers’ cost of
production has shot up but rates of their produce have not increased proportionately. It is similar to the case of sugar cane
whose rates range between Rs200 to Rs225 per 40kg for the last few years even though the price of sugar has doubled during
this time, while fertiliser rates have registered an over 150pc hike.
This increasing cost of production with no proportionate hike in farm produce is reducing farmers’ revenues and profits and
thus is bound to add to the rural poverty already reeling under lack of resources,” says Mr Jawad. He regrets that other sectors
have been given incentives in the form of duty cuts on raw material imports, provision of cheap gas (RLNG) and financing on
special markup rates to offset the impact of Covid-19 but the agriculture sector was ignored altogether and any announcement
in this regard remained confined to paperwork. He holds the 18th amendment partially responsible for the travails of the
farming community as the subject has been devolved to provinces while all the means and powers to effectively reduce the
cost of production still rest with the federal government. “The amendment says that agriculture is a devolved subject but it has
not been fully devolved. The provinces have no means to intervene effectively and reduce the production cost of the farm
sector. All these powers are still in the domain of the federation.”
Mr Malik is concerned that the situation will squeeze the financial space for the agriculture sector available currently in
government circles, while the chances of improving their financial condition through banking channels are dim with the
increase in interest rates. “How can a farmer think of getting a loan when the Karachi Interbank Offered Rate has shot up to
13.75pc with at least 2pc bank’s service charges? Survival of the agriculture sector through the loans acquired at 16pc markup
rate is simply impossible.” (Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 30th, 2022)

ANALYZING THE SOUTH ASIAN STRATEGIC STABILITY

Ever since Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state, Pakistan’s nuclear diplomacy has been in practice on the principles of
restraint and responsibility. Pakistan was even reluctant to enter the club of nuclear weapon states but soon after India had
conducted its first nuclear test in the year 1974, going nuclear became Pakistan’s strategic compulsion. India’s series of nuclear
tests in 1998 had compelled Pakistan to demonstrate its nuclear weapon capability accordingly to restore the strategic balance
in South Asia. The development of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon capability primarily serves the purpose of a credible and reliable
defence against the existential threat from India and maintaining peace and stability in the region. After the inevitable
nuclearization of South Asia, Pakistan has never been a part of any arms race in South Asia. Whereas India has always pushed
Pakistan towards an arms race and Pakistan has to ultimately work to restore balance in the region. Pakistan is carrying the
onus of maintaining strategic stability in the region and maintaining credible deterrent forces.
Understanding the matter better The overt nuclearization of the region demonstrated that the nuclear deterrent capabilities of
both states helped them to establish deterrence stability. This fact goes consistent with the assumption of deterrence theory that
once the two adversaries acquire nuclear deterrent capabilities, the matters will stabilize. Pakistan attaches great importance to
its nuclear deterrent capability. The South Asia strategic environment is shaped as such where the nuclear deterrence between
the two neighbors has frozen the possibility of any all-out war. Despite little probability of such a war, the two states have been
engaged in perpetual arms race and strategic competition. Ever since the partition, Pakistan and India have found themselves in
great confrontation with each other. The communal hatred and religious bias was also transformed into political aspirations
that further lead to widening the gap between the two states. This gap has only resulted in infusing mistrust and animosity
toward each other. Moreover, the interplay of several international, regional, and local factors poses daunting challenges for
deterrence stability in South Asia. Besides, India’s burgeoning behavior in the region continuously pushes the region towards

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arms race, by the introduction advanced delivery systems, more risk-acceptant doctrinal shifts, missile defense systems,
hypersonic missiles and tactical, sea-based (surface and submarine), and dual-capable nuclear systems all raise new challenges
for the strategic instability in South Asia. The Indian aspirations to accumulate maximum power based on its strategic
partnerships with the technologically advanced countries in the world are characterized by the classic Indian strategic thinking
to establish its hegemony in the region. The introduction of new technology would only bring instability in the region, and
would eventually greet the arms race, which is an expensive game and would result only in chaos in the already volatile South
Asian region. Furthermore, the concept of deterrence would be ruled out, as the fear of mutual vulnerability would be
diminished, and one side feeling vulnerable on the other could go for the offensive first strike; or out of the fear of attack, the
other side could ultimately strike first. Moreover, for neutralizing the defensive posture, due to India’s offensive burgeoning
behavior, effective countermeasures would be taken by Pakistan, and resultantly arms race will rise in the region.
The way forward “The history of our strategic force development clearly indicates that Pakistan has never allowed this
(strategic) balance to be disturbed to our disadvantage; we have always found effective solutions to redress induced imbalances
from time to time,” has been reiterated by Lt. Gen (R) Khalid Kidwai. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is primarily India-centric
and is aimed at deterring possible aggression from the eastern border. Pakistani leadership is cognizant of the growing
conventional asymmetries vis-à-vis India and therefore resolves to not adhere to the ‘no-first-use’ option. Pakistani leadership
intentionally exercises ambiguity with regard to the country’s willingness to use nuclear weapons in order to additionally
strengthen the credibility of nuclear deterrence. The nuclear deterrent of Pakistan is believed to be based on the principle of
credible minimum deterrence. The introduction of full-spectrum deterrence does not in general negate the guidelines of
credible minimum deterrence; rather the former complements the latter. Since Pakistan is committed to ensuring the
credibility of its nuclear deterrent, which is expected to deter possible aggression of any sort – be it conventional or nuclear –
the adoption of full-spectrum deterrence is by no means a violation of minimalism rather it reinforces the credibility of
country’s deterrence. The full-spectrum deterrence is an implication of India’s aggressive military thinking. Therefore, in
order to strengthen the deterrence stability of the region, it is first important that the two countries refrain from devising
aggressive military doctrines and postures. It is also the need of the hour that two states enter into some meaningful arms
control mechanism that could help them mitigate differences and explore the possibilities of cooperation. (Published by
Amber Afreen Abid on June 2, 2022 in Global Village Space)
CYBER-CRIMES AND CYBER SECURITY IN PAKISTAN
Cyber crimes refer to an activity done by using computers and the internet. We say that it is an unlawful act wherein a
computer can be used as a tool, target or a place for crime. It also includes traditional crimes in which computers are used as a
tool to enable illicit activity.
We can categorize cyber-crimes into two ways:
 The Computer as a Target: – it is the Use of a computer to other computers. I.e. hacking, virus attacks, etc.
 The Computer as a weapon: – It is the use of computers to commit real-world crimes. I.e. cyber terrorism, credit card
fraud, etc.
Another categorization of cyber is done as follows;
Against person
Against property
Against Government
Types of Cyber-crimes:
1. Hacking: Hacking, a simple term, refers to the illegal intrusion into a computer system and/or network. It is also known as
‘Cracking’. Govt. websites are a hot target to hackers due to press coverage. Hackers enjoy the media coverage. Motives
behind Hacking include greed, power, publicity, revenge, adventure, desire to access forbidden information etc.
2. Virus Dissemination: Malicious software that attaches itself to the other software. E.g. Viruses, worms, Trojan horses, web
jacking, E-mail bombing etc.
3. Computer vandalism: Damaging or destroying data instead of stealing it or misusing them is called cyber vandalism. These
are the programs that attach themselves with another file and circulate.

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4. Software piracy: Theft of software using some illegal means for copying the genuine programs or the counterfeiting and
distribution of products intended to pass for the original.
5. Cyber terrorism: Terrorist attacks on the internet is by a distributed denial of service attacks, hate websites and hate emails,
attacks on service networks etc.
6. Adult contents on web/ child abuse: The internet is highly abused to reach and abuse children sexually, worldwide. As
more homes have excess internet, more children would be using the internet and more are chances to fall victim to the
aggression of pedophiles. They use false identities to reach children and abuse them.
Cyber-laws in World Following are a few laws that are imposed all over the world against cyber-crimes;
Electronic Commerce Act(Ireland)
Electronic Transaction Act(UK, USA, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand)
Electronic Transactions Ordinance(Hong Kong)
Information Technology Act(India)
Information Communication Technology Act Draft(Bangladesh)
Cyber-Laws in Pakistan There are a number of cyber laws in Pakistan, they not only deals with cyber-crimes but also with all
dimensions of computer and web issues. Basically, some Acts had been passed by govt. of Pakistan in order to control
cyber-crimes, some of them are given below;
Electronic Transmission ordinance 2002
Electronic / Cyber-crime bill 2007
Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, 2016
A brief description of all the acts, sections, implementations and punishments is given below;
1. Cyber terrorism/ online recruitment or funding of terrorism
Whoever gets to, duplicates or crushes any basic data framework with an aim to make a feeling of dread, frenzy or frailty in the
Government or people in general or an area of the general population or network or faction or make a feeling of dread or
uncertainty in the public eye can be rebuffed with the detainment of either portrayal for a term which may reach out to 14
years or that fine which might be stretched out to 50 million rupees or with both. For Example You gain access to the
back-end system of a TV channel and start broadcasting a message that may create panic.
Whoever prepares or distributes data, through any data framework or gadget that invites or inspires to fund, or selects
individuals for fear-based oppression or plans for psychological oppression will be rebuffed with detainment for a term which
may stretch out to seven years or with fine or with both. For example; you run Facebook groups or admin pages and urge
individuals to support TTP, or you run a Whatsapp group and plan a terror attack.
2. Electronic fraud
Whoever with the expectation for illegitimate addition meddles with or utilizes any data framework, gadget or information or
instigates any individual to go into a relationship or cheats any individual, which act or exclusion is probably going to make
harm or mischief that individual or some other individual will be rebuffed with detainment for a term which may reach out to
two years or with fine which may stretch out to ten million rupees or with both. For example; you get into a relationship with
someone with the intent to cause financial damage.
3. Making / Spreading Explicit Images or Videos of an Individual/ child
Whoever deliberately and openly exhibits or displays or transmits any data which,
Superimposes a photo of the substance of a characteristic individual over any explicitly expressed picture or video
Incorporates a photo or a video of a characteristic individual in explicitly unequivocal lead
Threatens a characteristic individual with any sexual demonstration, or any explicitly unequivocal picture or video of a
characteristic individual

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Develops, lures or actuates a characteristic individual to take part in an explicitly unequivocal act,
Using a data framework to hurt a characteristic individual or his notoriety or to deliver retribution, or to make disdain or to
coerce, will be rebuffed with detainment for a term which may reach out to five years or with a line that may stretch out to
five million rupees or with both. For example; You Photoshop an Image of an individual in a way that face is utilized close by
a bare body or you make an explicit video or pictures of somebody in private
Or you communicate/post such video or pictures on Facebook or through some other medium, (like, Whatsapp). You utilize
any explicit video to extort/ blackmail somebody.
4. Hacking/ Malicious Codes/ Unauthorized access to an information system or data
If somebody screens an individual through mail, instant message or some other type of electronic correspondence then you
can be imprisoned for as long as three years and a fine of Rs. 1 Million or both. Whoever composes, offers, makes accessible,
disperses or transmits noxious code with the aim to make hurt any data framework or information bringing about the
defilement, pulverization, modification concealment, burglary, or loss of the data framework or information will be rebuffed
with detainment for a term which may stretch out to two years or with fine which may reach out to one million rupees or
with both.
For example; you hack someone with the intent of a relationship that you are in or may make and then monitor the email.
You write a virus, develop a mobile app to spy on someone, develop an app to spread a virus, DDoS attack someone, and
write a code that can be used to destroy a hard drive.
Access to the information system means: gaining access, control, or ability to use any part or all of a system which could be a
laptop, mobile phone, tablet or any other type of computer system
Access to data: obtain access, control, or capacity to use any data or traffic data, that is, an email, SMS, fax, print or any type of
computer data.
Cyber security
It involves the protection of sensitive personal and business information through prevention, intervention, detection and
response to different online attacks. Simply, it is actually preventing the cyber-attack.
Privacy policy
A privacy policy is an authoritative record that details how a site accumulates, stores, offers, and sells information about its
guests. This information ordinarily includes things like, a client’s name, address, birthday, conjugal status, therapeutic history,
and buyer conduct.
Before submitting your username, email, address or any personal identity on a website, we should first look for the site’s
privacy policy.
Keep the software updated
If a seller reduces patches for a software operating system device, install them as soon as possible. Installing them will reduce
the chances for attackers from taking any advantage. Usage of good & strong passwords containing different types of
combinations. Never use options that allow you to use a computer to save or remember your passwords.
Disabled remote connectivity
Some devices like mobile phones and PDA’s are equipped with wireless technologies, such as Bluetooth, that can be
connected to other devices and computers. These features are also a source of threat. These features should be disabled when
not in use.
Other safety tips
Use antivirus software.
Insert firewalls and pop-up blockers.
Uninstall unnecessary software.
Maintain backup.

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Check the security
(Published by Rauf Khalid Cheema on June 8, 2022 in Global Village Space)

REBOOTING THE UKRAINE CONFLICT

The sound of cannons in Ukraine is neither pleasing for the Europeans nor expedient for South Asians. Russia has invaded
Ukraine using an excuse of ‘pre-emptive self-defense.’ At various forums, President Vladimir V. Putin reiterated that he would
not warrant Ukraine’s joining of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The war in Ukraine would have profound political,
economic, and strategic repercussions for Europe and the entire world in general. The 193-member United Nations General
Assembly met on the crisis in Ukraine to isolate Russia by deploying its “aggression against Ukraine” and demanding Russian
troops stop fighting and withdraw. Nevertheless, despite the diplomatic efforts, the United States, and European Union’s
enormous sanctions, President Putin seems determined to subdue Ukraine.
Russian troops have gradually been capturing their targets in Ukraine On March 2, Russia captured a strategic port city on the
Black Sea and Dnieper River. The Russian column of hundreds of tanks and other vehicles reached the vicinity of Kyiv. The
military defeat of Ukraine is evident; however, it is debatable whether Russia will keep hold of Ukraine or face devastating
protracted asymmetrical warfare. The unfolding of the internal and external events in the country alarms the protracted
asymmetrical warfare in Ukraine. The NATO members’ supply of bristling array of Javelin antitank missiles, Stinger
surface-to-air missiles, rocket launchers, machine guns, sniper rifles, small arms, and munitions bolster Ukrainian’s urban
guerrilla-warfare strategy to bleeding the advancing Russian force.
NATO is not offering troops, but its members provide financial and military hardware assistance to Ukraine. For instance, the
United States committed $950 million in military assistance, Germany announced to supply 1,000 antitank weapons and 500
Stinger surface-to-air missiles, the Netherlands committed 50 Panzerfaust-3 antitank weapons, etc. In addition, it was reported
that the European Union would provide a €450 million lethal arms support package through its European Peace Facility (EPF)
to Ukraine, the first time the bloc had approved the supply of lethal weapons in its history a third country. The military
hardware assistance failed to dissuade Russians and satisfy the Ukrainians. They were disappointed by NATO’s refusal to create
a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “If you do not have the power to close the skies,
then give me planes!” NATO refused to send its fighter jets to prevent Russian airstrikes because its members are shy of direct
encounters with the Russian troops. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “We have a responsibility … to prevent
this war from escalating beyond Ukraine because that would be even more dangerous, more devastating and would cause even
more human suffering.” Since the rebooting of the Ukraine conflict, Putin has been stoking European countries’ deepest fear
by highlighting the probability of the use of nuclear weapons in case the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates due to
the involvement of the NATO-led by the United States. On February 27, Russia announced the placing of nuclear forces on
high combat alert.
Indeed, it was a calculated move to deter NATO’s perceived military response. Notably, across Western Europe, people are
taking the Russian president’s threats very seriously. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, while addressing the 11th
emergency special session of the 193-member U.N. General Assembly on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, termed the Kremlin
nuclear move as a “chilling development,” and claimed that nuclear conflict is “inconceivable.”
What could happen next? The analysts believe that desperation could lead Putin to cross the nuclear threshold if the conflict
drags on. Admittedly, the likelihood of a nuclear war is still low; however, the threat is rising. Perhaps, the nuclear threat failed
to stop the United States and its allies from providing equipment to Ukraine. Hence, the probability of quashing the nuclear
taboo—a normative inhibition against the first use of nuclear weapons—is increasing. The unthinkable of nuclear strikes might
start to become thinkable due to the escalation of the war. The counterproductive development is that Europeans will invest
immensely in their military buildup, and NATO will be more united and resolute than before. For example, German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz committed an extra 100 billion euros, around $112 billion, to his country’s defense budget. Hence,
Putin’s Ukraine invasion and nuclear signaling alarmed the arms race in Europe, and the increased significance of the United
States extended nuclear deterrence to the NATO and Treaty allies. It may encourage a few European states to exit from the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and develop nuclear weapons. Besides, Putin’s nuclear deterrent posture during the
fog of war underscores the relevance of nuclear weapons in the 21st century. The small country with a powerful, ruthless
neighbor would see Ukraine’s fate as a reason to secure nuclear weapons.
A testing time for India and Pakistan On March 2, 2022, four South Asian nations—Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri
Lanka—abstained from voting on the US-backed Resolution to censure Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and demanding

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Russians’ immediate withdrawal. This reveals that they are distancing from the crisis. Nevertheless, India is fixed. The energy
costs are going up and will hit countries, especially those importing ones like India and Pakistan. India desires to maintain its
autonomy in its relations with Russia and American allies for strengthening its armed forces to check China’s rise and preserve
economic opportunity. It has not condemned the Russian invasion despite America’s insistence and abstained on the U.N.
Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Due to its stated policy to improve ties with all the
great powers and distance itself from ‘camp politics,’ Islamabad is neither against the Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial
integrity nor prepared to disrupt its maiden understanding with Moscow. Pakistan is determined to improve its relations with
Russian Federation without jeopardizing the relationship with the European Union and the United States. It enjoys good
relations with Ukraine, and there was close cooperation between the two countries in defense, such as M-80 battle tanks,
helicopters, electronics, night vision devices. Moreover, trade in agricultural products increased.
Pakistan has adopted a neutral policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict
On March 2, in a carefully worded statement on the Ukrainian crisis, delivered in the U.N. General Assembly (UNGA),
Pakistan emphasized the need to protect the territorial integrity without threatening the national interests of another.
However, it abstained from voting on the Resolution. Pakistan’s neutral stance may contribute positively to its relations with
Russia. However, it could prove to be a showstopper for improving association with the West, which is keeping it on the
FATF grey list and suspended operation of Pakistan International Airlines to E.U. member states from July 2020.
Conclusion The escalation in a war between Russia and Ukraine devastates the latter complete with significant
politico-economic repercussions for the former. It ruptured the security architecture that has prevailed in Europe since the end
of the Cold War. Likewise, the entire world is exposed to the worst economic crisis if the bloodshed in Ukraine continues and
sanctions ramp up against Russia. Indeed, the situation is dreadful for Pakistan, struggling to streamline its geoeconomic
objectives without compromising on the existential military threat to its National Security. The new sanctions against Russian
companies could derail a $3 billion Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline Project (PSGP). The project intended to construct a
1,122-kilometer gas pipeline from Karachi to Kasur. Finally, the increasing strategic tension between the Great Powers and the
Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a problematic situation for Pakistan. Nonetheless, Pakistan’s abstention in the UNGA
votes is consistent with the new Islamabad’s foreign policy politicking, which stems from being neutral in its decisions and
approaches to geopolitics. Maybe Pakistan’s neutral stance does not resonate too well in Washington and Brussels, but that is
the way Islamabad will be from now on. (Published by Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal on March 7, 2022 in Global Village Space)
THE BENEFITS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN PAKISTAN
Pakistan is in the middle of an economic (IMF negotiation, rising fuel cost and inflation), political (political instability and
polarisation) and environmental (heatwaves and water scarcity due to climate change) crisis. However, there is no serious
research and expertise produced by higher education institutions in Pakistan on how to address these challenges, in spite of
billions of dollars being spent in the last 20 years. The tragedy of higher education is that new universities have been
established in the last 20 years, thousands of good and bad research papers have been published, with the number rising every
year; thousands of local and international PhD students have graduated and novel programmes have been implemented by the
Higher Education Commission (HEC). However, this knowledge and achievement have not translated into government
actions and benefited wider society.
This is because a research-policy-society contract in higher education in Pakistan is lacking. Pakistan’s economic, political and
environmental crises has been widely researched in the developed world. However, this research has not been contextualised
and transferred to Pakistan’s governance, policy, and social environment. Let me give the example of my own area of research
in urban and environmental planning. Decades of global climate change research produced by the International Panel for
Climate Change (IPCC) shows that Pakistan must act swiftly to protect its waterways, biodiversity and agricultural soil, which
are critical for human security in our country. However, this quality research has never been translated into policies for food
production, urban development patterns and energy consumption. There is no doubt that new ministries (Ministry of Climate
Change) and departments (Environmental Protection Authority) have been established in the last 2 to 3 decades, new
legislation has been passed, and programmes (CNG cars, the Billion Trees project) have been initiated. Still, these actions are
too little and too late without any robust evaluation and impact. In fact, these activities have become exercises in marketing
and getting invitations and travelling to international forums.
Environmental NGOs have focused on advocacy and activism by organising walks and raising awareness. Their work has
improved climate change coverage in the media, but they have failed to produce political leaders like Al Gore and activists like
Greta Thunberg who can make climate change the core issue of the country. Therefore, the climate change debate is totally
absent from national political priorities, policies, funding mechanisms and national media. Even Covid-19 failed to compel us
to reflect and restructure our economy and budgets away from reliance on traditional consumption patterns. The time has

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come for the HEC to reflect on its achievements and deficiencies, and then find ways to promote a research-policy-society
contract for academics in Pakistan. The hundreds of academics of Pakistani origin working in universities in the developed
world (over 100 are working in New Zealand universities and research institutes) can help to establish this contract. As a
member of the academic community, I see three possible options for future action.
The first option is to continue research as usual as per the HEC’s criterion of publishing in impact factor journals. This option
is founded on the hope that political leaders will take some policy action while academics stay politically neutral. The HEC
and universities can also invest in new ways to better communicate the results of academic research. However, this option
naïvely assumes that published research will be translated into policy and actions, which is already happening on a small scale in
different sectors. As the second option, the HEC could promote social science research and advocacy, focusing on a better
understanding of why transformative change has not occurred in different sectors and how to enable institutional, political and
social change. To date, the HEC’s research funding and scholarships have been dominated by natural science and technical
disciplines. The research focus and funding would be extended to social science and humanities with this option. There is no
doubt that social science needs more funding, but there is no evidence that exposing the powers and vested interests through
social science research will lead to transformative actions within a reasonable timeframe.
The third is the radical option of changing the focus of research and associated funding to the holistic impact of research
excellence. Publication impact factors, citation counts, download views, and H-indices can only be accepted if the published
output positively changes society, the economy, and the environment. It would be unethical and irresponsible for the HEC
and academics to publish research without making any difference in the social, economic and environmental crises Pakistan is
facing now and in the near future. The HEC should consider only research that works closely with the governments and other
stakeholders to tackle the societal problems through the co-creation of locally implementable knowledge. The third option is
the only effective way to produce robust local research that addresses the tragedy of higher education in Pakistan. Hope is
always there but revisiting the HEC’s policies on research and establishing a research-policy-society nexus could translate hope
into action. (Published in The Express Tribune, June 7th, 2022)
WATER CRISIS IN PAKISTAN
Pakistan is experiencing devastating environmental issues such as air pollution, deforestation, climate change, water scarcity,
and loss of biodiversity. In an era of advancement, everyone knows of the problems being faced. But I question how many of
us are actually working toward it! Are we all playing our part in protecting Mother Earth? Are we making any efforts to
conserve the depleting resources? Are we not guilty? Yes, we are! The need of the hour is to switch to sustainable ways of
living and introduce transformative actions and techniques. A collective effort is required on behalf of the governmental
organisations, NGOS, civil societies and local communities to curb the deteriorating impact on environment. Water scarcity is
a gargantuan problem. The Indus River is the ‘lifeline’ of Pakistan. It provides for almost 300 million people and the water
required for agriculture, industrial use, energy production and human consumption. However, the river is being negatively
impacted by rising temperatures, changes in weather patterns, reduced flows, habitual destruction and pollution. In Lahore,
almost 600 tubewells have been installed and 40 billion cubics are used every day which means a lot of water is wasted.
Karachi, a cosmopolitan city, is the ideal example of a polluted city. From sewage and drainage to the dirty public beaches and
the infinite number of cars emitting smoke is resulting in air pollution. The massive infrastructure developed over the last 15
years or so has wiped out green spaces, hence leaving a desert-like condition where there is only a mirage of water but no
water. Climate change is perhaps the cause of all environmental issues. But something is also causing climate change. The
answer is simple. It is human interference that is resulting in destroying the planet. The reckless exploitation of resources on
behalf of humankind is causing unrest on Gaia. The masses are literally tearing at each other. There is no water even to drink,
let alone shower. Life has become a hellfire for the masses. They drink from the coolers installed in the park, rest under the
shade of the few trees left and shower in canals to get relief from the surging waves of heat. Does this not imply how necessary
it is to save water! Water is the essential ingredient to flourish in nature. Be it mankind, animals, plants, and insects all need
water to survive. Without water, there will be no life on earth. Water is the key to sustenance. All life will thrive only if there
is water. It has a healing property. Air pollution is the next biggest threat to the planet. The primary causes are transport and
tobacco. Tobacco companies have a massive business. The sale of cigarettes is reaching alarming heights. Trees are being cut
down to produce cigarettes. Moreover, they are hazardous to human health and are resulting in allergies and diseases such as
asthma, lung cancer. The smoke emitting vehicles have similar effects. However, where it is a necessity to have more than two
cars in a family, it can only be addressed to use them economically so as to conserve petrol and simultaneously not sacrificing
your needs. Deforestation is also a cause for concern. Recently a wildfire broke out in Swat town of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
destroying the forest completely. The cause of the fire is of course human intervention. A lit cigarette was thrown here and
there or an unextinguished bonfire. Trees are vital to keeping the ecosystem running. The ecosystem works in a domino effect.
Hence, there is nothing useless. Everything is there for a purpose. To conclude, it is essential to invest in nature-friendly

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techniques. Introducing ways to sync nature with the urban is the answer to our problems. Heal the world, so that the planet is
inhabitable by all species, for the earth will take its revenge if tampered with. So don’t mess with nature! (Published in The
Express Tribune, June 8th, 2022)
GEOPOLITICAL, GEO-ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF BALOCHISTAN
Balochistan is the biggest province of Pakistan located in a ‘geopolitical crush zone’. This province carries a geo-economic and
geostrategic importance for Pakistan and a positive and timely exploitation of this importance could be immensely beneficial.
Balochistan shares a border with Iran and Afghanistan; and via Afghanistan, it connects the country with Central Asian
Republics (CARs). And via Arabian Sea, the province can also link up Pakistan with a number of countries in the Indian
Ocean region for trade and economic activities.
From Peter the Great of the Russian Empire, Great Britain, the Soviet Union and the contemporary leading power, the
United States, all had strategic interest in this part of the world. The Russians, in particular, were interested in reaching the
warm waters for geopolitical and geo-economic reasons. Many scholars on geopolitical and geostrategic studies potentially
highlight the significance of Balochistan because of such imperatives.
Arguably, the province of Balochistan becomes one of the largest conduit regions both for landlocked Afghanistan and CARs
that are interested in selling their products to the Middle Eastern countries via Balochistan. Simultaneously, it is also significant
for Pakistan to attract the CARs through a peaceful Afghanistan. With the regional rise of China, the centrality of Balochistan
in international politics is getting further enhanced as China attempts to develop regional connectivity through Pakistan, more
particularly through the Gwadar Deep Sea Port. In addition to Gwadar Port, other major sea ports such as the Karachi Port
and Port Qasim are equally important for Pakistan. The imperatives of cooperation and competition rather than a strategy of
containment can ensure peace, stability and prosperity in the broader South Asia region where each stakeholder takes benefit
out of such proposed regional connectivity.
However, along with the struggle for regional connectivity while ensuring prosperity in the region, the geopolitical and
geo-economic challenges remain paramount. The regional rise of China with its grand strategy of Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) is largely perceived to be a threat to its regional rival India and more especially to the predominance of the US in the
Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, along with cooperation and competition, major powers adopt containment strategies. In this
context, the US and its closer Asian allies are making all efforts to contain China’s rise through QUAD and AUKUS while
China attempts to integrate economically as many Asian countries, including Pakistan, as it can to neutralise the US strategy of
offshore balancing. Thus, along with cooperation and competition, the strategy of containment between the major powers
may continue to accelerate further. Many fear that the struggle between these imperatives could create a security dilemma that
in turn could produce serious military conflicts between these powers, which could have security repercussions for Pakistan.
Broadly, the rise of China along with the BRI; the US offshore balancing strategy; India’s military and nuclear modernisation
along with it outreach to Indian-Ocean Region through Chabahar Port as a counter to Gwadar Port; regional connectivity
and strategy of cooperation, competition and containment; reflect how significant Pakistan and more importantly its biggest
province Balochistan becomes in the international politics.
Therefore, Pakistan needs to catch up with the fast evolving dynamics between the major powers affecting Pakistan and
Balochistan. Cashing out maximum advantages to the best possible benefit of Pakistan becomes the order of the day.
Moreover, Pakistan needs to focus on resolving local issues such as scarcity of water, insecurity, mismanagement of education,
unemployment, bad governance, corruption and many other longstanding problems facing the people of Balochistan. Failing
this, there is a danger that the people of Balochistan could get badly exploited by both internal and external forces working
against the vital interest of Pakistan. Opportunities and challenges become part and parcel of Balochistan which is struggling to
cope with them. However, due to its strategic value, the very essence of geopolitical and geostrategic imperative is still alive
and because of these imperatives bolstered by the overarching significance of this province, many problems that Balochistan
confronts today can be addressed if things are timely and efficiently manipulated to the supreme interest of this province and
the country at large. In its supreme national interest, Pakistan needs to evolve a strategy embraced with balanced approaches
while maintaining better relations with all the responsible stakeholders both within the regional and beyond. (Published by Dr
Zafar Khan in Express Tribune on June 2, 2022)

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