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a significant, even dangerous, freedom in the way The usefulness of the mathematical language
in which we select the models which will represent for modelling purposes is undisputed. However,
decision making situations." [32] there are limits of the usefulness and of the possi-
On the other hand a mathematical model is bility of using the classical mathematical language,
defined to be a collection of statements about a set based on the dichotomous character of set theory,
of variables from which the truth or falsity of to models in particular systems and phenomena in
other statements can be deduced. the social sciences: "There is no idea or proposi-
The utter importance of modelling language is tion in the field, which can not be put into
recognized by Apostel, when he says: " T h e re- mathematical language, although the utility of
lationship between formal languages and domains doing so can very well be doubted" [10].
in which they have models must in the empirical Schwartz [36] brings up another argument
sciences necessarily be guided by two considera- against the unreflected use of mathematics, if he
tions that are by no means as important in the states: An argument which is only convincing if it
formal sciences: is precise loses all its force if the assumptions on
(a) The relationship between the language and which it is based are slightly changed, while an
the domain must be closer because they are in a argument, which is convincing but imprecise may
sense produced through and for each other; well be stable under small perturbations of its
(b) Extensions of formalism and models must underlying axioms".
necessarily be considered because everything intro- By now it should have become clear, that tradi-
duced is introduced to make progress in the de- tional (crisp) mathematics is quite well suited to
scription of the objects studied. Therefore, we model either crisp problems or problems in which
should say that the formalization of the concept of the vagueness is of the stochastic (probabilistic)
approximate constructive necessary satisfaction is type. These types of problems are very common in
the main tasks of semantic study of models in the natural sciences and engineering. They are by far
empirical sciences". [2] not as frequent in social sciences and in particular
Because we request that a modelling language is in decision making.
unequivocal and nonredundant on one hand and, Vagueness of the above mentioned type in-
at the same time, catches semantically in its terms dudes phenomena which are 'intrinsicly' vague,
all that is important and relevant for the model we such as "good labour relations", "acceptable prof-
seem to have the following problem: Human its", "dependable forecasts", "good schedules". It
thinking and feeling, in which ideas, pictures, also includes relationships such as " I f we have a
images, and value systems are formed, first of all good management, we can survive hard times",
has certainly more concepts or comprehensions " I n growing markets competition is less fierce
than our daily language has words. If one consid- than in a recession" or " T h e available capacities
ers, in addition, that for a number of notions we should not be excessively used". It is not difficult
use several words (synonyms) then it becomes to see that classical mathematics is not a proper
quite obvious that the power (in a set theoretic tool to model these kinds of phenomena or rela-
sense) of our thinking and feeling is much higher tionships properly and that a new modelling tool
than the power of a living language. If in turn we would be quite desirable.
compare the power of a living language with the
language of logic then we will find that logic is 1.2. Informational vagueness
even poorer. Therefore, it seems to be impossible
to guarantee a one to one mapping of problems Another crucial factor in modelling reality is
and systems in our imagination and a model using the quality and the quantity of data one can
a mathematical or logical language. One might expect to obtain about the problem to be mod-
object that logical symbols can arbitrarily be filled elled. The saying 'garbage in-garbage out' is well
with semantic contents and that by doing so the known and speaks for itself. The following quota-
logical language becomes much richer. It will be tion from Josiah Stamp [38] points in the same
shown later that it is very often extremely difficult direction: "Governments are very keen in amass-
to appropriately assign semantic contents to logical ing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise
symbols. them to the n th power, take the cube root and
H.-J. Zimmermann / Fuzzy sets in OR 203
make wonderful diagrams. But what you must crisp set to a set with vague boundaries. The
never forget is that every one of these figures degree of membership of single objects to this set
comes in the first instace from the village watch- varies gradually. Partitioning such a set ap-
man who just puts down what he damn pleases". propriately into smaller subsets would certainly
It must, however, be born in mind that the decrease the number of descriptors which are nec-
effort put into deriving and obtaining numerical essary to obtain crisp subsets. For illustrative pur-
values or relations must be geared to the value of poses we shall use the term 'creditworthiness':
the model and that when data are scarce it may This 'subjective category' (one might prefer to
still be useful to draw conclusions from not fully think of creditworthy people) can be subdivided
satisfactory input data. In this case a tentative into two major determinants, financial basis and
look at the dependence of the solution from the personality, which again are fuzzy but probably
quality of the input data may be very advisable. less than creditworthiness. By further subdivisions
Probably nobody will object to the statement we might end up with a hierarchy of 'subjective
that poor or insufficient data are a barrier for categories' and 'subcategories' which in our minds
good modelling. The contrary, however, can also are the better described the lower in the hierarchy
be true. An abundance of information can also be they appear (see Fig. 1).
the cause for vagueness: In day-to-day conversa- Putting it the other way round: The higher in
tion people use very effectively terms such as the hierarchy a term appears the fuzzier is its
"pleasant personality", "comfortable houses" or description.
"creditworthiness" as labels for sets of objects
which could be described uniquely and crisply if a 1.3. Heuristic algorithms
large number of 'descriptors' were used. Since the
human information storage- and processing capac- Whenever a problem or the model of it are too
ity is very limited, however, all the necessary de- complex to be solved exactly with acceptable ef-
scriptors of such a set are not consciously used fort one turns to the use of heuristic algorithms.
when communicating with other persons. The de- Heuristics normally either reduce the solution
scription and conception of such a set--which we space which is considered in searching for an
will call 'subjective category'--changes form a optimal solution or make the algorithm faster and
Credit- 1
worthiness
Financial Personality
basis
Business
behaviour
I
by doing so lose the certainty that an optimal We will also refer to Zadeh's following basic
solution is really found. A human decision maker concepts:
without adequate EDP-software and hardware at Support: The support of a fuzzy set A is a set
his disposal very often resorts to such an approach S(A) such that
and achieves quite reasonable results. His results
x > 0.
are frequently at least good enough from a practi-
cal point of view and often the decision procedure Normality: It has already been mentioned that
is more stable than a sophisticated mathematical #(-) is not limited to values between 0 and 1. If
control algorithm [26]. Supx#A(X ) = 1 the fuzzy set A is called normal. A
One could also call this procedure 'approxi- not empty fuzzy set A can always be normalized
mate" rather than 'exact'. Classical mathematics is by dividing/~A(X) by Supx/~A(x ).
often badly suited to model these algorithms; ap- Equality: Two fuzzy sets A and B are equal iff
proximate reasoning seems to be more ap-
propriate, How these types of approaches can be ~A(x)=/~,(x) ( o r / ~ A = t ~ , ) , x ~ X.
implemented by use of fuzzy sets will be illustrated In the following we will for convenience always
in Section 3.2. write #a for/aA(X ), X ~ X; unless stated otherwise
and we will assume normalized fuzzy sets.
Containment: A is a subset of B iff ~a </.to.
2. What are fuzzy sets? Intersection: The membership function of A A B
2.1. Fuzzy set theory, possibility theory, probability /L4ne = min(/~A, ttB),
theory or using the conjunction symbol A :
or' and 'and' respectively--might have to be de- for breakfast". The possibility distribution /~(x)
fined differently depending on the context of their and the probability distribution p(x) might then
semantic interpretation. In 1978, Zadeh [48] speci- be as shown in Table 1.
fied one possible interpretation of fuzzy sets as Decision models might contain probabilistic as
possibility distributions. Since there is a certain well as possibilistic components. In addition to
resemblance between possibility theory and proba- those they might, however, contain components
bility theory some comments might be useful: and relationships which are vague but neither in
Probabilistic models are models which describe the probabilistic nor in the possibilistic sense. By a
situations in probabilistic terms, i.e. probabilities, 'decision model', as considered here, we mean a
distribution function etc., and which for their model which can be descriptive or prescriptive and
transformations and relations use the axiomatic which shall be factual in the sense that human
system of probability theory. Hamacher [17] fol- beings can behave as required by the model
lowed Carnap and Stegmi~ller [11] when he dis- (prescriptive case) or do behave as asserted by the
tinguished 12 different kinds of probabilities. They model (descriptive case). I.e. those models have to
differ from each other with respect to their be formulated in a way that they can be tested
semantic interpreation (for instance Kolmogoroff- empirically. This holds for the modelling of vaguely
type probabilities vs Koopman-type probabilities), described entities (corresponding to probability or
with respect to their mathematical properties (the possibility functions) as well as for the computa-
former is a Boolean ring, satisfying the 8 Koop- tional or aggregation rules.
man's axioms, the latter is a o-algebra with specific Suggestions for axiomatic and empirical justifi-
properties) and with respect to their linguistic form cations of concepts for 'and' and 'or' will be
(explicite vs implicite probabilities). Probability presented in Section 4 of this paper.
theory of whichever kind normally assumes that
the 'events' are well defined (crisp). Concerning 1.2. Semantic interpretations of fuzzy sets
the aggregation of probabilities (random numbers
or truth sets) in the sense of 'and', 'or', 'not', the Even though many different kinds of probabili-
operations used (addition, multiplication, sub- ties exist, only two basic interpretations can be
straction from 1) are uniquely defined. Even found: degrees of belief or truth on one side and
though the systems are generally formal and not the frequentistic interpretation on the other side.
factual theories, their empirical validity with re- For fuzzy sets few semantic interpretations have
spect to 'stochastic' situations can be considered so far been put forward:
as satisfactorily established. The above mentioned notion of a possibility
Possibility theory [48] is essentially also a for- distribution can be considered as one interpreta-
mal theory which was developed in the framework tion. The concept of a subjective category as men-
of the theory of fuzzy sets. The semantic interpre- tioned in Section 1.2 is another. Rather similar is
tation of 'possibility' differs, however, from that the concept of a 'linguistic variable'. In fuzzy
of 'probability' and so do the underlying axioms clustering notions of similarity are represented by
and aggregation rules. Possibility theory corre- fuzzy sets. In reliability theory, the term 'safety' or
sponds formally to the min-max version of fuzzy 'reliability' is sometimes considered to be repre-
set theory. The different meanings of a probability sentable by a fuzzy set and in project management
distribution and a possibility distribution might the project time. It can be expected that many
become apparent in the following example: more context-dependent interpretations will be
Let us consider the statement "Paul eats x eggs suggested and used. In all these cases the question
Table 1
Possibility d i s t r i b u t i o n vs. p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
~(x) 1 1 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0
p(x) 0.1 0.8 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
206 1-1.-J. Zimmermann / Fuzzy sets in OR
u(x) x ~(×)'
I-
0
10 15 x[%]
o 4. ~ _ 10 11 11,75 x[%]
)
Fig. 2. "Dividens substantially larger than 10%". Fig. 4. A fuzzy decision.
The decision, i.e. the fuzzy set including the The concept of a decision in a fuzzy environ-
dividens in the vincinity of 11% and substantially ment has been applied to special types of decisions
larger than 10%, is indicated in Fig. 4. such as linear programming.
Algebraically the membership function of the We shall consider the problem
objective could be
minimize Z = cx,
0 for x < 10% subject to A x <~b, (1)
#°(x)= (l + (x - 1 0 ) - 2 ) -I forx>~ 10%. x>~0
in which the objective function as well as the
That of the constraint could be
constraints are fuzzy sets. We can then write the
,c(x)=((l+(x_ll) 4) ' problem as
he develops specific rules for the above mentioned 3. 3. Fuzzy algorithmic approaches
type of membership functions. He then solves
PERT-type sequencing problems in which the So far fuzzy sets were used to model a problem
scheduling is constrained by crisp and by fuzzy and crisp traditional mathematics was used to
constraints. either find solutions to equivalent crisp models or
By contrast to the fuzzy linear programming to investigate their structural sensitivity. Now we
approaches described earlier the solution to the shall consider the algorithmic use of fuzzy set
above scheduling program is not a crisp but a theory.
fuzzy schedule. Two major positions of departure can be recog-
nized: One is a generalization of two-valued logic,
3.2. Fuzzy set theory as an analytic tool which leads to 'approximate' or 'fuzzy' reasoning.
The other could probably best be characterized by
Let us use the linear programming as a vehicle the term 'fuzzy controller'. The idea behind this
for illustration again: approach is that human controllers are very often
Sensitivity analysis in linear programming in- much more stable and efficient in controlling for
vestigates changes of the optimal value of the instance semi-automatic production processes than
objective function or the optimal solution as a are mathematically formulated and EDP-sup-
function of changes of the right-hand side or the ported control devices. One, therefore, tries to
coefficients of the objective function. Since all model human controlling behaviour by fuzzy set
coefficients are crisp, only crisp changes can be theory and after it has been formalized as a 'fuzzy
considered. This is obviously already additional control algorithm' substitute it for control systems
structural information about the problem or model which are very often mathematically very sophisti-
compared to the knowledge of the optimal solu- cated but tend to overreact and 'explode' unter
tion only. If a problem description is vague, how- certain constellations.
ever, it can be modelled as a fuzzy LP-model. In between these two approaches are others,
Then changes of stability as a function of varying such as fuzzy decision tree methods [1], fuzzy
fuzziness are of interest and can be obtained. branch and bound methods etc. which, however,
What consequences do increased tolerance inter- are still at the very beginning of their develop-
vals have? What changes can be expected if the ment.
aspirations and hereby the membership functions Here we shall elaborate some more about 'fuzzy
of the constraints or objective functions change? reasoning' and ' fuzzy controllers'.
What effects on the solutions can be expected if "Informally, by approximate or, equivalently,
crisp constraints turn into fuzzy constraints? These fuzzy reasoning we mean the process by which a
are questions asked and answered in sensitivity possibly imprecise conclusion is deduced from a
analysis of fuzzy linear programs [18]. Similar collection of inprecise premises. Such reasoning is,
holds for duality theory in fuzzy linear program- for the most part, qualitative rather than quantita-
ming: Traditional crisp duality theory in linear tive in nature and almost all of it falls outside of
programming is uniquely defined and considers the domain of applicability of classical logic" [47].
optimal pairs of primal-dual solutions only. In Zadeh's system for fuzzy logic essentially con-
fuzzy duality theory [33] the pairs of primal-dual sists of sets of rules which together constitute a
models can be formulated differently. In this re- consistent system for approximate reasoning. He
spect certain analogies exist between stochastic distinguishes: 'Translation Rules', i.e. rules that
linear programming and fuzzy linear program- yield the translation of a modified composite pro-
ming. Fuzzy duality also does not restrict con- position from the translations of its constituents.
siderations only to optimal pairs of solutions but The translation of a proposition must be under-
also considers suboptimal solutions (decision be- stood as its associated possibility distributions.
haviour), which is probably more realistic than There are rules pertaining to modification (x is
focussing on optimal behaviour only. Another in- very small. Therese is highly intelligent.), rules
teresting type of sensitivity analysis via fuzzy sets pertaining to composition (X is small and Y is
is presented by Wang and Togai in a very recent large. If X is small then Y is large.), rules pertain-
article [42]. ing to quantification (Most Swedes are tall. Many
210 H.-J. Zimmermann / Fuzzy sets in OR
men are taller than most men) and rules pertaining which otherwise could not be defined satisfactorily
to qualification (John is tall is very true. John is at all.
tall is quite possible). One application of fuzzy logic is fuzzy control.
A typical elementary example of the composi- For the purpose of illustration let us regard one of
tional translation rules is for example [47]: X and the first experiments in this direction [26]:
Y are variables taking values in U and IS, respec- The 'plant' to be controlled was a steam engine
tively. F and G are fuzzy subsets of U and V and boiler combination. Two inputs were consid-
(possibility distributions/~y and H x). ered: heat input to the boiler and throttle opening
If at the input of the engine cylinder. The outputs are
the steam pressure in the boiler and the speed of
XisF ~ Hx=F,
the engine. Tests showed, that the relationships
YisG ~ Hy=G, (8) were highly nonlinear with both magnitude and
then polarity of the input variables. Thus an installed
digital controller had to be retuned each time the
X i s F a n d Y i s G --, H<x.y)=F(qG operating point was altered. Six variables were
=F×G, defined: PE (Pressure Error), SE (Speed Error),
CPE (Change in Pressure Error), CSE (Change in
X is F or Y is G ~ H(x.y) = F + G. (9) Speed Error), HC (Heat Change) and TC (Throttle
Change), the last two of which are the action
Here H(x,y ) is the possibility distribution of the
variables. Between 5 and 8 fuzzy sets were defined
binary variable (x, y), ff and G are the cylindrical
for each of these variables: PB (Positive Big), PM
extensions of F and G, F × G is the cartesian
(Positive Medium), PS (Positive Small), NO (Nil).
product of F and G.
PO (Just above zero), NS (Negative Small), N M
If, for instance, U = V = (1, 2, 3) and
(Negative Medium) and NB (Negative Big). For
Fi small =a ((1, 1), (2, 0.6), (3, 0.1)), the variable TC (Throttle Change) five of these
fuzzy sets (i.e. their membership functions) are
G i large ~ ((1, 0.1), (2, 0.6), (3, 1)),
shown in Table 2.
then (8) and (9) yield In addition to the rules for the union and
intersection of fuzzy sets mentioned earlier the
x is small and Y is large ~ 1-l<x.y) complement rA of a fuzzy set A was defined by
H<x,y )= ([(1, 1), 0.1], [(1, 2), 0.6], [(1, 3), 0.1], /lrA(x ) = 1 -/~A(x). This corresponded to the ne-
gation of the statement behind fuzzy set A. A
X [(2, 1), 0.1], [(2, 2), 0.6], [(2, 3), 0.61, heater control algorithm and a throttle control
× [(3, 1), 0.1], [(3, 2), 0.1], [(3, 3), 0.1]), algorithm was designed and implemented. For
illustration we show a part of the heater algorithm:
x is small or Y is large
If PE = NB
II<x.y )= ([(1, 1), 1], [(1, 2), 1], [(1, 3), 1], and CPE = not (NB or NM)
X [(2, 1), 0.6], [(2, 2), 0.6],[(2, 3), 1], and SE = ANY
× [(3, 1), 1], [(3, 2), 0.6], [(3, 3), 1]).
minimum operator is used to model the 'and'. types of managerial decisions. Therefore, first of
It should be stressed that Hamacher's justifica- all a new 'and' had to be introduced; we called it
tion was primarily aiming at the use of 'and' in the 'compensatory and' in contrast to the 'logical
decision problems! It does not seem possible to and'. As mathematical models for this 'compensa-
justify any model for the 'and' contextfree, i.e. tory and' a number of possible operators were
valid for all possible problem areas. Dombi [13] tested: Max, Min, arithmetic mean, geometric
pointed to the fact that it might even be difficult mean and a special 'y-operator'. Detailed descrip-
to derive and justify models for connectives without tions of the tests and the results can be found in
taking into consideration the models used for [40]. It turned out, that the operator which by far
membership functions and weighting of fuzzy sets. performed best was the 3,-operator, which incorpo-
For shapes of membership functions hardly any rated the following idea:
axiomatic justifications have become known so far. When people aggregate subjective categories in
Schwab [35], again for fuzzy sets representing fuzzy their minds in order to evaluate or decide they use
criteria in decision models, justified spline func- a great variety of operators. These operators vary
tions as proper membership functions. He bases with respect to the degree of compensation and
his proof on 10 'rationality axioms' and derives a with respect to the importance attached to the
type of function which is unique and which can be criteria expressed in the subjective categories. Then
calibrated by the decision maker by setting three expressing their thoughts verbally they are forced
interpretable parameters. An empirical validation to choose one of the only two words available to
of his axioms is, however, not yet available and them: 'and' or 'or'. These words have been seman-
might be difficult to obtain. tically defined, 'and' as the 'logical and' without
any compensation and 'or' as the 'inclusive or'
4. 2. Empirical approaches with full compensation. Thus already by ex-
pressing their thoughts due to the 'poorness' of
When testing empirically the product operator our language people have to approximate their real
and the minimum operator whether they really problems or thought processes more or less well by
modelled the 'and' used in human decisions it was selecting the verbal connective which is closest to
found in the second half of the seventies that both their real connnective.
operators had to be rejected as adequate models Thus the real approximation takes place already
[40]. when verbally expressing evaluation models and
There appeared even doubts on whether not so much when turning this description into a
managerial decisions could be looked at as 'inter- mathematical model.
sections' of goals and constraints: Intersection in Since the real connective with respect to com-
the classical sense means that there is no com- pensation has to be between the 'logical and' and
pensation between the membership to different the 'inclusive or' we defined the 'compensatory
sets: If somebody is looking for a black-and-red and' as a combination of the intersection and the
skirt, then a green (not black)-and-red skirt will union of fuzzy sets:
not be acceptable, even though it might be " v e r y
red". (In two characteristic functions a zero of one ]XASB ~ ~ A ~ B t ' A U B" (lO)
can never be compensated by a one in the ap-
If the intersection and the union are algebraically
propriate position of another characteristic func-
tion when intersecting them.) represented by the product and the algebraic sum,
In managerial decisions, however, in most cases respectively, then (10) becomes
compensatory effects between objectives are pre-
sent. Two portfolios might, for instance, be of /to= /x 1- (1-/1,) , (11)
i=1 i=1
equal worth even though one has a slightly higher
expected return and the other a lower risk in- 0</~<l,0<y< 1,
volved! If full compensation was present, the un- i = 1, 2 , . . . , m, m = number of sets to be connected.
ion, modelled by the max-operator might be an
acceptable model for aggregation. This, however, If it is desired to introduce different weights for
seems unlikely in the light of the large variety of the sets in question. /~ and 1 - / ~ , could for in-
Credit-
II worthiness
Weight
f
i
I
y _ 0.59
Financial
Personality
basis
8 = 0.95
N
I e~
II
y = 0.62 7 = 0.60
II
/
3' - ' 0.78
Liquidity Business I
Potential
I behavior [
1
7 = 0.98 ]( y = 0.84 3' = 0.57 J V = 0.90 7 = 0.55 "r = 0.77 "y = 0.55
Property minus
I
Conformation with
Other net Income minus Continuity Ph) ical Economic" }
long-term property expenses ,ntal Motivation thinking social & economic
of margin & ~
pott
debts ztial 8 = 0.80 standards
3 = 2.03 8 = 1.01
8 = 0.23 8 = 0.92
Fig. 6. Concept hierarcy of creditworthiness together with individual weights and y-alues for each level of aggregation.
i'O
t~
214 H. -.I. Zimmermann / Fuzzy sets in OR
5. Conclusions
4.3. Applications
Fuzzy set theory-even though still young-has
The theory of fuzzy sets is still quite young. Its already proved to be a very useful modelling and
fast growth really started in the second half of the algorithmic tool in Operational Research. The the-
seventies. It is therefore not surprising that the oretical mathematical development is quite ad-
number of ‘real’ applications is still not very high. vanced but not yet finished by far. Kandel lists in
H.-J. Zimmermann / Fuzzy sets in OR 215
his recent book [21] 3064 references which is cer- Induced Fuzzy Sets (Delftse Universitaire Pers, Delft, 1978).
[4] J.F. Baldwin, A new approach to approximate reasoning
tainly a considerable number of publications. In
using fuzzy sets, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 2 (1979) 309-325.
particular, if most of them have appeared within [5] J.C. Bedzek, Pattern Recognition with Fuzzy Objective
the last ten years. Two Journals are published in Function Algorithms (Plenum, New York, 1981).
this area and looking at the contribution in these [6] R. Bellman and M. Giertz, On the analytic formalism of
journals one gets the impression t h a t - - t o an in- the theory of fuzzy sets, Information Sci. 5 (1973) 149-156.
creasing degree--the theoretical papers outnum- [7] R. Bellman and L.A. Zadeh, Decision-making in a fuzzy
environment, Management Sci. 17 (1970) 141-164.
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[8] D.I. Blockley, The role of fuzzy sets in civil engineering,
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Research! (Wiley, Chicester, 1980).
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Dordrecht (1961).
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- as a modelling language. Wahrscheinlichkeit, Wien (1959).
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used as a modelling tool are characterized by in PERT, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 5 (1981) 11-19.
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Morgan class of fuzzy operators and fuzziness measures
(a) Fuzzy phenomena, relations or evaluations
induced by fuzzy operators, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 8
are modelled by a well defined and founded (1982) 149-164.
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set theory!); and Applications (Academic Press, New York, 1980).
(b) By doing so a better approximation of real [15] M.M. Gupta, G.N. Saridis and B.R. Gaines (Eds.), Fuzzy
Automata and Decision Processes (North-Holland, Amster-
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dam, 1977).
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- as an algorithmic tool. The main advantages are
1978).
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This is probably one reason for the lack of more and Systems 8 (1982) 117-132.
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ley, New York, 1982).
gress in this direction will hopefully be made in
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