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Abstract
Purpose – The relationship between just-in-time (JIT) and supply chain disruption risk is unclear from the
existing literature. This paper aims to investigate the impact of supplier JIT and customer JIT on supplier
disruption risk (SDR), internal disruption risk (IDR), and customer disruption risk (CDR) and explore the
moderating role of supply chain centralization.
Design/methodology/approach – Based on survey data collected from 213 manufacturing firms in China,
this study employs structural equation modeling with SmartPLS 3.0 to test the main proposed model and
applies an ordinary least square regression to test the moderating effect.
Findings – The results demonstrate that supplier JIT is positively related to SDR and negatively associated
with IDR. Customer JIT is positively associated with CDR but has no significant effect on IDR. The results also
show that SDR and CDR lead to IDR and mediate the relationship between supplier JIT, customer JIT, and IDR.
In addition, supply chain centralization amplifies the positive impacts of supply chain JIT on SDR and IDR.
Originality/value – This study makes two main contributions. First, the study provides a comprehensive
analysis of the relationship between supply chain JIT and disruption risk. Second, the study addresses that
implementing JIT in a supply chain with a centralized decision-making structure leads to a higher level of
disruption risk.
Keywords JIT, Supply chain disruption risk, Supply chain centralization
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
In todays’ turbulent and uncertain environment, firms are more and more likely to be exposed to
disruptions (Sreedevi and Saranga, 2017; Tse et al., 2016). More importantly, as supply chains are
becoming complex and inter-connected, the risk tends to propagate throughout supply chain
partners, leading to a high level of supply chain disruption risk (Basole and Bellamy, 2014;
Christopher and Lee, 2004; Dolgui and Ivanov, 2021; Ojha et al., 2018; Scheibe and Blackhurst,
2018). The China-US trade war and the outbreak of COVID-19 are examples of major crises that
have shocked focal firms and disrupted supply chains with unquantifiable losses (Singh et al.,
2021). Unquestionably, supply chain disruptions are a significant threat that jeopardizes firms’
ability to survive in the market (Kwak et al., 2018). This study focuses on supply chain disruption
risk (SCDR), defined as the likelihood of disruptions in the supply chain and the potential
magnitude of hazards associated with the disruptions (Ellis et al., 2010; Habermann et al., 2015). It
is mainly managers’ perceived likelihood of disruptions stemming from internal, supplier-side
and customer-side relationships (Habermann et al., 2015; Li et al., 2021). Industrial Management & Data
Systems
Vol. 122 No. 7, 2022
pp. 1665-1685
This research was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (#72002150, #72091210/ © Emerald Publishing Limited
0263-5577
#72091214, #71961137004). DOI 10.1108/IMDS-09-2021-0552
IMDS The ability to minimize SCDR lies in understanding what affects the rising of the
122,7 disruption risk and the propagation of the risk along the supply chains (Bode and Wagner,
2015; Scheibe and Blackhurst, 2018). While some studies focus on external environmental
conditions causing higher SCDR (e.g. Tse et al., 2016), other studies suggest that the inherent
design of supply chains and the practices adopted to manage supply chain relationships are
critical reasons (e.g. Bode and Wagner, 2015; Habermann et al., 2015). Indeed, some firms or
supply chains are more vulnerable to SCDR. A classic example is that when a fire accident
1666 occurred in the Philips Electronics plant, two major customers that source cellphone chips
from the critical plant (i.e. Ericsson and Nokia) were affected differently. While Ericsson
suffered 200 million dollars losses, Nokia could source from different suppliers and minimize
the negative impact (Chopra and Sodhi, 2014). Along the lines, extant studies have probed
into supply-chain level factors leading to higher odds of supply chain disruptions (Ellis et al.,
2011). For instance, Schmitt et al. (2015) found that a centralized inventory system makes a
supply chain more prone to disruption risk. Habermann et al. (2015) indicated that supply
chain design decisions, such as the dispersion and the distance of supply chain partners, are
crucial determinants of SCDR. Scheibe and Blackhurst (2018) suggested that the supply chain
structure and dependence nature are related to the occurrence and spreading of disruptions in
supply chains. Bode and Wagner (2015) showed that complex supply chain designs predict
the likelihood of supply chain disruptions.
In this study, we advance the line of the rationale and consider important drivers of SCDR
from a supply chain perspective. Specifically, we focus on Just-in-Time (JIT) practices, one of
the most commonly adopted supply chain strategies, and explore how the practices adopted
internally, in the supplier and customer sides, give rise to SCDR. JIT is essential to the lean
philosophy, which facilitates delivering the right product at the right time in the right
quantity (Chen and Hua Tan, 2013; Hernandez-Matias et al., 2019). The benefits of JIT
implementation have been fully investigated in the extant literature (Ruiz-Benıtez et al., 2018;
Suleiman et al., 2021). When applying JIT to the supply chain, the central firms are likely to
reap the maximum benefits because JIT simplifies the focal firm’s operational processes and
transfers those costly burdens to supply chain partners (Dowlatshahi and Taham, 2009).
Many firms, such as Dell, emphasize using JIT practices in their supply chains to increase
efficacy. However, we indicate that the adoption of JIT may also disperse disruption risk to
supply chain relationships. Supply chain JIT practices increase firms’ dependence on a few
suppliers and customers, so their supply chains are likely to be vulnerable and fragile
(Schmitt and Singh, 2012; Wagner and Neshat, 2010).
We also examine whether the supply chain decision-making structure, indicated by the
level of centralization, would take effect along with the JIT practices. A centralized decision-
making structure is often accompanied by JIT adoption because the focal firm needs the
authority to directly control the supply chain and make decisions for their partners to ensure
the successful implementation of JIT (Giannoccaro, 2018; Koufteros and Vonderembse, 1998).
Based on the sense-making theory, we posit that the essence of the supply chain JIT-SCDR
puzzle lies in firms’ decreased capability to resolve equivocality (i.e. the complex and
ambiguous environment) (Ellis et al., 2011). A centralized decision-making structure further
limits firms’ information flows and inhibits firms’ capability to flexibly alter JIT
arrangements in the face of risk (Ellis et al., 2011). Thus, as decisions are more centralized,
the adoption of JIT is more likely to cause SCDR propagation.
Our study differentiates from existing studies in two aspects. First, we analyze the
structural relationship between supply chain JIT and SCDR. While existing studies have
indicated that JIT makes firms vulnerable to disruptions (Danese et al., 2012; Jadhav et al.,
2015; Suleiman et al., 2021), they have not fully uncovered the comprehensive relationships
between internal, inbound, and outbound disruption risk and different dimensions of supply
chain JIT. This leads to the first research question:
RQ1. How does supply chain JIT influence SCDR? JIT’s impact on
Second, we consider the decision-making structure (i.e. the level of centralization) in the study SCDR
to shed light upon the possible mechanism leading to SCDR. We draw from the sense-making
theory to depict how JIT implementation in a centralized supply chain might expose firms to a
greater likelihood of supply chain disruptions. We posit the second research question.
RQ2. How does supply chain centralization moderate the relationship between supply
chain JIT and SCDR? 1667
Overall, this study is fruitful for understanding the antecedents of SCDR by incorporating the
roles of supply chain JIT and centralization.
This paper is organized as follows: We reviewed various literature underpinning SCDR,
supply chain JIT, and supply chain centralization and developed research hypotheses. We
then elaborated on the research methodology. Subsequently, we presented the results,
discussed the findings, and summarized the theoretical and managerial contributions.
Finally, we provided the conclusion, limitations and suggestions for future studies.
2. Literature review
2.1 Supply chain disruption risk
Supply chain disruptions are typically viewed as unexpected events that disrupt the normal
flow of materials and goods in the supply chain (Kleindorfer and Saad, 2005). Most scholars
who have studied supply chain disruption risk focused on the notion that present supply
chains are fragile and undergo a higher risk of disruptions than those in the past (Kleindorfer
and Saad, 2005; Parast and Subramanian, 2021; Park et al., 2016). SCDR is defined as the
likelihood of having a disruption in the supply chain and potential hazards associated with
the disruption (Habermann et al., 2015; Macdonald et al., 2018). Our definition is based on the
managerial perception that disruptions would emanate in the supply side, customer side, or
firm internal operations (Habermann et al., 2015), leading to subjected total potential loss in
the supply chain (Ellis et al., 2010). Three dimensions of SCDRs are included in this study (i.e.
SDR, CDR and IDR). SDR is defined as the likelihood that the normal flow of materials
upstream will be interrupted (Tse et al., 2016). CDR is defined as the likelihood that the normal
flow of products downstream will be interrupted. IDR is perceived as the likelihood of
breakdown triggered by the failure of firm internal operations (Habermann et al., 2015).
Extant literature has investigated the SCDR in two streams. The first stream examined
SCDR as a multi-dimensional concept triggered by several internal and external drivers
(Kleindorfer and Saad, 2005; Parast and Subramanian, 2021; Tse et al., 2016). Table 1 presents
the summary of drivers of SCDR that are identified in the past literature. Another stream of
research focused on the mitigation strategies of SCDR (Craighead et al., 2007; L€ucker et al., 2019;
Tomlin, 2006). This paper addresses the gap in the literature by evaluating the antecedent of
SCDR from the angle of supply chain design and the sense-making perspective, which are less
understood in the previous literature (Bode and Wagner, 2015). Accordingly, our paper
provides a better understanding of how SCDR spreads and propagates in supply chains.
“JIT purchasing,” aims to synchronize material flows from the major supplier to the focal firm
(Giunipero et al., 2005). Customer JIT, also known as “JIT selling,” refers to delivering the right
product in the right volume at the desired place to the customer (Green et al., 2011).
Extant research has provided several advantages that firms can obtain by adopting
supply chain JIT practices, such as improved product quality, costs reduction, lowered
inventory, shortened lead time, stabilize production, and increased responsiveness (Buer
et al., 2020; Negr~ao et al., 2017; Suleiman et al., 2021). Supply chain JIT is one of the lean
bundles with the objective of achieving supply chain excellence (Negr~ao et al., 2017). Yang
et al. (2021) argue that the core principle of supply chain JIT is to reduce waste, streamline
purchasing, production and distribution, and enhance the effective flow of materials and
goods at the pace of customer demand.
Some literature has also discussed the pitfall of supply chain JIT in different ways. For
example, Suleiman et al. (2021) indicated that supply chain JIT makes firms overly lean due to
the deliberate choice of keeping minimal inventories, making the entire system at risk when
unexpected events disrupt the normal flow of materials. Another pitfall of supply chain JIT is
the sourcing strategy and structure used to facilitate the frequent delivery of materials
required. The single-sourcing approach undermines firm capabilities to cope with market
changes (Giunipero et al., 2005; Zsidisin and Wagner, 2010). Although some research
suggests that supply chain JIT increases risk in the manufacturing firm, the findings are
general to conclude the relationships. To fill this research gap, we conduct a comprehensive
empirical study to examine the impact of supply chain JIT on supply chain disruption risk.
2.3 Supply chain centralization JIT’s impact on
Supply chain centralization is the degree to which the locus of authority to make decisions SCDR
concerning supply chain activities is concentrated at higher levels of the hierarchy (Davis-
Sramek et al., 2015). In centralized supply chain structures, communication is vertical in
nature and information is passed from those who have relevant information (i.e. customers
and suppliers) to the focal firm with decision-making rights (Pertusa-Ortega et al., 2010).
Davis-Sramek et al. (2015) argue that a centralized supply chain decision structure tends to
impose high risk to the firm because the process of passing information to the hierarchy is 1669
subjected to distortion. From the sense-making perspective, as supply chain firms rely on a
hierarchical structure of information and decision flows, they are hampered in taking timely
response action (Giannoccaro, 2018).
3.2 The effects of supplier JIT and customer JIT on SDR and CDR
Although adopting supply chain JIT has direct benefits to the focal firm, it also entails a dark
side in the supply chain dyads. Supply chain JIT is viewed as the main component of the lean
system (Bond et al., 2020). The system is fragile because it gives few options to handle an
unexpected situation (Jabbarzadeh et al., 2018). The pitfall of supply chain JIT is elaborated
from the perspective of suppliers and customers. We indicate that supplier JIT would induce
SDR in two ways starting with the supplier side. First, as supplier JIT emphasizes single
sourcing and close collaboration with a few suppliers to ensure frequent deliveries in small
lots, the practice increases reliance over others. It makes firms vulnerable to the practice of the
suppliers and the turbulences in the supply side (Zsidisin and Ritchie, 2008). For instance,
Blome and Henke (2009) argued that although single-sourcing benefits are indisputable, it is a
risky approach when unexpected turbulences happen. It leaves firms with few alternatives to
cope with uncertainties.
Second, firms implementing supplier JIT would minimize inventories in production
processes (Jadhav et al., 2015). Despite the economic rationale of reducing inventories, it
IMDS increases the hazard of supply disruption (Ahmed and Huma, 2021). Whitney et al. (2014)
122,7 argued that when a firm holds few inventories for production, it bears a high chance of supply
disruptions once the components fail to arrive on time. In a similar vein, supplier JIT focuses
on reducing inventories in safety capacity, lead time, and stocks. The resulting risk is that a
firm would be less prepared for any contingencies (Birkie, 2016; Suleiman et al., 2021; Zsidisin
et al., 2005). Thus, we conjecture that supplier JIT makes firms vulnerable to SDR and propose
the following hypothesis:
1670
H2a. Supplier JIT is positively related to supplier disruption risk.
On the other side, the risk of adopting customer JIT can be explained in two aspects. First,
customer JIT practices enlarge a firm’s responsibility to serve its customers and induce a
greater need for intensive coordination, collaboration, and integration among departments
(Banerjee et al., 2007). In other words, customer JIT requires commitment and involvement
from the focal firm and customers. Therefore, any point of failure in the pull delivery practices
(such as not delivering the right products in the right volume to the customer’s desired place)
could trigger disruption on the customer side (Hernandez-Matias et al., 2019). Second,
customer JIT practices require predictable sales planning that relies on the customer’s
historical orders. An error in the sales planning and demand forecasting may lead to a
disruption risk in the downstream supply chain (Jadhav et al., 2015). Therefore, we formulate
the following hypothesis:
H2b. Customer JIT is positively related to customer disruption risk.
SJIT1
SJIT2
SJIT3
Supplier JIT
SJIT4
H1a
H2a
SDR1
SDR2 IDR1
Supplier
SDR3
disruption risk IDR2
H3a
SDR4
Internal
IDR3
disruption risk
CDR1 H3b
Customer
IDR4
CDR2 disruption risk
CDR3 IDR5
CDR4 H2b
Internal
H1b JIT
CJIT1
Customer JIT
CJIT2
CJIT3 Figure 1.
Conceptual framework
CJIT4
IMDS We draw from the sense-making perspective to indicate that supply chain centralization
122,7 amplifies the dark side of supply chain JIT and results in a higher likelihood of risk
propagation among supply chain members (Ellis et al., 2011). As we have elaborated, firms
adopting JIT rely on their supply chain partners to maintain efficient products, information,
and cash flows. They are subject to the behavior of supply chain partners and fragile to
environmental turbulence. In this sense, supply chain JIT induces equivocality as firms are
inhibited from understanding the overall environmental conditions (Ellis et al., 2011;
1672 Giannoccaro, 2018). The situation is especially exacerbated when firms have a centralized
decision-making structure with supply chain partners. Although the information processing
need is reduced in a centralized supply chain, centralization further restricts firms to familiar
areas and hampers their searching for valuable information outside existing supply chain
relationships when unexpected issues occur (Flynn et al., 2016; Joseph et al., 2016). In addition,
suppliers and customers may be discouraged from seeking solutions for JIT-induced
problems when they are rendered low authority. As the responsibility to cope with SCDR may
fall upon the focal firm solely, the risk is more likely to propagate quickly along the supply
chains. In that case, we argue that firms having a centralized decision-making structure in the
implementation of JIT will increase SCDR. Therefore, we posit the following hypotheses:
H5a. Supply chain centralization positively moderates the relationship between supply
chain JIT and SCDR.
H5b. Supply chain centralization positively moderates the relationship between SDR,
CDR and IDR.
4. Methodology
4.1 Questionnaire design
The constructs were developed after a comprehensive review of previous literature. For
content validity, all items were reviewed by experts and went through in-depth interviews
with supply chain managers. The questionnaire was also pre-tested through a pilot study
conducted in 25 manufacturing firms. Additional inputs were added to the revised
questionnaire to ensure that the questions were understandable and practicable in China. The
questionnaires were developed in English, translated into Chinese, and then translated back
into English for cross-checking (Flynn et al., 2010). Supplier JIT and customer JIT were
measured using four items for each, adapted from McKone et al. (2001). SDR and CDR were
measured using four items adapted from (Ellis et al., 2010). IDR consists of five items adapted
from Ellis et al. (2010). The four items of supply chain centralization were adopted from
Huang et al. (2010). All items were measured using a 7-point Likert scale (see Table 2).
were sent with a cover letter to guarantee the confidentiality of their responses (Flynn et al.,
2010). Besides, close follow-ups such as weekly phone calls and email reminders were made to
increase the response rate. Finally, a total of 213 useable questionnaires out of 800 were
returned, yielding a valid response rate of 26.63% (see Table 3).
Constructs Mean SD 1 2 3 4 5 6
SJIT1
SJIT2
SJIT3
Supplier JIT
SJIT4
–0.161†
0.243***
SDR1
R 2 = 0.059
SDR2 IDR1
2
Supplier R = 0.404
SDR3
disruption risk IDR2
0.331****
SDR4
Internal
IDR3
disruption risk
CDR1 0.405***
Customer
IDR4
CDR2 disruption risk
ns
–0.012
CDR3 2 IDR5
R = 0.025
CDR4 0.158* 0.069ns Internal
JIT
CJIT1
Customer JIT
CJIT2
CJIT3
Figure 2. CJIT4
PLS-SEM results
Note(s): †p < 0.1; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001; ns: non-significant
other side, customer JIT is also significantly associated with CDR (β 5 0.158, p < 0.05) but not JIT’s impact on
directly associated with IDR (β 5 0.069, p > 0.1), hence rejecting H1b and supporting H2b. As SCDR
we have hypothesized, SDR (β 5 0.331, p < 0.001) and CDR (β 5 0.405, p < 0.001) are strongly
associated with IDR, which supports H3a and H3b. Internal JIT included as a control variable
in our model was not significantly associated with IDR (β 5 0.012, p > 0.1).
Subsequently, we assessed the indirect effects using a similar SmartPLS bootstrapping
method (Preacher and Hayes, 2008). Our study finds that mediating effects are significant at
p < 0.01 and p < 0.1 level respectively. The results confirmed H4a (β 5 0.081, p < 0.05) and 1677
H4b (β 5 0.064, p < 0.1). The mediation effects are further supported by a 95% confidence
interval at a 2-tailed level for supplier JIT through SDR (LL 5 0.038, UL 5 0.134) and
customer JIT through CDR (LL 5 0.003, UL 5 0.120) as shown in Table 6. In brief, our
results indicate that SDR and CDR mediate the effects of supplier JIT and customer JIT
on IDR.
Finally, we summarized the results for the moderating effects of supply chain
centralization in Table 7. The results show that supply chain centralization positively
moderates the relationship between supplier JIT and SDR (β 5 0.100, p < 0.01), and IDR
(β 5 0.090, p < 0.05). Furthermore, supply chain centralization positively moderates the
relationship between customer JIT and CDR (β 5 0.072, p < 0.05) and the relationship between
CDR and IDR (β 5 0.117, p < 0.05).
1678
Table 7.
OLS Regression results
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Variables SDR SDR CDR CDR IDR IDR IDR IDR
Supplier JIT (SJIT) 0.169*** (3.24) 0.256 (1.36) 0.097 (1.39) 0.525*** (2.65)
Customer JIT (CJIT) 0.112* (1.88) 0.197 (1.15) 0.292 (1.47)
Supplier Disruption Risk 0.333*** (4.07) 0.301 (1.27) 0.343*** (4.17) 0.303 (1.33)
(SDR)
Customer Disruption 0.403*** (4.86) 0.104 (0.42) 0.407*** (4.95) 0.113 (0.46)
Risk (CDR)
Supply chain 0.295* (1.74) 0.167 (1.19) 0.351* (1.89) 0.461** (2.18)
Centralization (SCC)
a. SJIT 3 SCC 0.100** (2.28) 0.090* (1.84)
b. CJIT 3 SCC 0.072* (1.86) 0.060 (1.24)
c. SDR 3 SCC 0.006 (0.12) 0.007 (0.14)
d. CDR 3 SCC 0.114** (2.42) 0.117** (2.48)
Internal JIT 0.057 (1.24) 0.059 (1.30) 0.002 (0.03) 0.007 (0.10)
Constant 3.221*** (15.63) 4.463*** (6.34) 3.420*** (16.15) 4.121*** (6.82) 0.840*** (3.10) 2.442*** (2.84) 0.913*** (3.18) 3.013*** (3.12)
Observations 213 213 213 213 213 213 213 213
R-squared 0.049 0.080 0.021 0.040 0.379 0.408 0.386 0.429
Note(s): *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001
spread in a complex and tightly coupled supply chain. Thus, whenever any of the nodes in a JIT’s impact on
supply chain network is disrupted and fails, the risk could propagate to internal operations. SCDR
Second, our findings illustrate that SDR and CDR mediate the relationship between supply
chain JIT and IDR. This means that the vulnerability stemming from supply chain JIT will
ultimately affect internal operations because of the supply chain linkages. Our findings
empirically support that supply chain linkages (e.g. supply chain JIT strategy) would
introduce additional interdependencies between partners (Bode and Wagner, 2015), which
intensifies the risk propagation to the firm internal operations. 1679
in supply chains improves resilience performance, which contradicts our finding (Brusset and
Teller, 2017). Our study highlights the significance of using the sense-making perspective in
supply chains to understand the interaction of supply chain JIT and a centralized decision-
making structure and its impact on SCDR. For instance, when the focal firm increases the control
of information and decisions while implementing JIT programs, it weakens the supply chain’s
ability to flexibly acquire and process important information and form fast responses when
unexpected circumstances happen (Davis-Sramek et al., 2015).
Our findings provide important managerial implications in several ways. First, managers
might leverage our results in adopting supply chain practices and designing supply chain
structures. They should beware of the disruption risk stemming from supply chain JIT and
centralized decision-making. Firms must learn from real-world examples, such as the Toyota
company. Toyota is famous for adopting JIT in supply chains and holding strict control over
its suppliers. The chief executives of Toyota company reveal that they have faced disruptions
risk multiple times over the past couple of decades due to integration with JIT in the supply
chain. When a deadly earthquake and tsunami hit Japan in 2011, Toyota’s business was
severely hurt and the philosophy of JIT was blamed for the huge loss compared with other
companies (MacKenzie et al., 2012).
Second, managers should be prepared with proper, tailored, and robust risk mitigation
strategies in case of disruption risk. We encourage managers to be fully aware of the double-
edged characteristic of JIT and use robust mechanisms such as increasing the level of
digitalization to reduce the chance of internal disruption. They should be cautious about SDR JIT’s impact on
and CDR whenever internal operations are prioritized. For instance, the shock that came to SCDR
Toyota in 2011 forced it to revamp the supply chain strategies. The actions include adopting
standardized components, building a supplier network database, regionalizing the supply
chain, and improving the inventory holding of specialized components at suppliers’ units
(Giovani, 2017).
Third, managers should not emphasize a centralized decision-making structure when
implementing supply chain JIT as it might amplify disruption risk. They should understand 1681
the harm of supply chain JIT implementation in restricting the scope of sense-making of
firms. Thus, it would be wiser to pursue a decentralized structure and delegate the decision-
making responsibility to supply chain partners and the boundary-spanners. Recent events
such as the COVID-19 pandemic, US-China trade wars, Suez Canal blockage, and Brexit have
amplified global disruption risk in the manufacturing industry. The events have triggered a
demand for a more flexible system like never before with effective collaborative design,
supply chain involvement, and decentralized information sharing to render supply chain
partner’s visibility and more opportunities in handling disruption risk.
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Corresponding author
Mohammed Ali Suleiman can be contacted at: masuleiman@mzumbe.ac.tz
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