Journal of Hydrology (2008) 350, 100– 113

available at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on

drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer
system
a,*
Annette Semadeni-Davies , Claes Hernebring b, Gilbert Svensson b,
Lars-Göran Gustafsson c

a
Dept. Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Box 118, 22100 Lund, Sweden
b
DHI Water and Environment, Gothenburg, Sweden
c
DHI Water and Environment, Växsjö, Sweden

Received 29 June 2006; received in revised form 14 May 2007; accepted 17 May 2007

KEYWORDS Summary Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on water systems has
Stormwater; been an essential part of hydrological research over the last couple of decades. However,
Waste water; the notion that such assessments should also include technological, demographic and land
Combined sewer use changes is relatively recent. In this study, the potential impacts of climate change and
overflow (CSO); continued urbanisation on waste and stormwater flows in the combined sewer of central
Climate change; Helsingborg, South Sweden, have been assessed using a series of DHI MOUSE simulations
Development; run with present conditions as well as two climate change scenarios and three progressive
Sustainable urban urbanisation storylines. At present, overflows of untreated wastewater following heavy
drainage systems rainfalls are a major source of pollution to the coastal receiving waters and there is a
(SUDS); worry that increased rainfall could exacerbate the problem. Sewer flows resulting from
Best management different urbanisation storylines were simulated for two 10-year periods corresponding
practices (BMPS) to present (1994–2003) and future climates (nominally 2081–2090). In all, 12 simulations
were made. Climate change was simulated by altering a high-resolution rainfall record
according to the climate-change signal derived from a regional climate model. Urbanisa-
tion was simulated by altering model parameters to reflect current trends in demographics
and water management. It was found that city growth and projected increases in precip-
itation, both together and alone, are set to worsen the current drainage problems.

* Corresponding author. Present address: National Institute of Water and Atmosphere, Private Bag 99940 Auckland, New Zealand. Tel.: +64
9 3754532; fax: +64 9 3752051.
E-mail address: a.davies@niwa.co.nz (A. Semadeni-Davies).

0022-1694/$ - see front matter ª 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.05.028
The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden
Conversely, system renovation and installation of sustainable urban drainage systems
(SUDS) has a positive effect on the urban environment in general and can largely allay
the adverse impacts of both urbanisation and climate change.
ª 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Background
Helsingborg (pop. 123,000), on the south coast of Sweden, is a
city undergoing change and is expected to grow over the next
few decades. This presents a problem for municipal water
managers as the combined sewer system and waste water
treatment plant in the central city are already prone to prob-
lems such as combined sewer overflows (CSO) and pumping
station overflows of untreated waste water to local receiving
waters following heavy rainfall. Continued urbanisation could
put even more stress on the system leading to further failure.
For instance, part of the local development plan over the
coming decades is to subdivide land near the city centre,
namely the largely rural Lussebäcken catchment, for industry
and housing. While source control and a separate pipe net-
work for stormwater are most likely for the Lussebäcken
development, the sanitary sewer will probably be joined to
the existing central combined sewer which will increase both
the hydraulic and nutrient loads in the pipes and at the waste
water treatment plant (WWTP). Over the same time frame as
city growth, climate change is also expected to have a nega-
tive impact on urban drainage in Helsingborg. Of most inter-
est here is the prospect of more frequent and intense
rainstorm events by the end of the century. System mainte-
nance, rehabilitation and replacement in the future must
take into account the dual effects of both climate change
and urbanisation. Hence the main objective of this paper is
to assess the relative impacts of both, together and sepa-
rately, on the combined sewer network in central Helsingborg
with respect to inflow volumes at the WWTP, overflow fre-
quency and volume, and nutrient transport.
The concern in Helsingborg echoes the calls made by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) for
real-world studies into the impacts on water systems with
respect to water resources. Parry (2001) states that quanti-
tative assessment of sensitivity and vulnerability of human
systems to climate change is a priority research area. How-
ever, there is a lack of both tools and guidelines for climate
change impact assessment in hydrology. The impacts of cli-
mate change on the hydrology cycle have the potential to
affect not only the natural environment but also the human
built environment. To date, most investigations have fo-
cused on the former with little regard to changes in human
behaviour towards climate change including adaptation and
mitigation. Failure to account for non-climatic changes such
as innovations in system operation or rehabilitation of infra-
structure leads to misconceptions because these activities
act as a buffer between the bio-physical hydrological
effects and impacts on people and their surrounding envi-
ronment. Furthermore, it implies that society is unable or
unwilling to respond to global change whether it be environ-
mental, political, economic or technical.
Towns are arguably the most dramatic examples of envi-
ronmental change as vegetation is removed, soils become
101
covered by impervious surfaces and streams are replaced
by pipes. Towns are characterised by rapid flow responses
and high peak flows following even modest rainfalls. More-
over, the urban water cycle is affected by human activities
including transport (e.g., water quality) and patterns of
domestic and commercial water use (e.g., water supply
from outside the catchment boundaries, waste water pro-
duction, irrigation in parks and gardens). The desire to pro-
vide and maintain a pleasant living space with minimal
environmental impacts and the legal requirement to protect
citizens from floods (European Standard EN 752; Didón,
1995) and other water related nuisance creates a dilemma
for city authorities in the face of climate change: how best
to manage urban drainage in a sustainable manner in an
uncertain and ever-changing world? Urban water manage-
ment for future conditions is a juggling act. At worst, design
and renovation that fail to make use of current changes in
technology as well as projected changes in climate could
cause health hazards and widespread damage to public
and private property. At best, wise and flexible design and
construction could not only alleviate the impacts of urban-
isation and climate change, but could provide the city with
a liquid asset in the form of a well landscaped, open water
system for stormwater source control as part of urban blue-
green space creation.
For urban areas, climate change impact assessment has
hitherto concentrated on flood risk from river systems
(e.g., Schreider et al., 2000) or water supply (e.g., Boland,
1997; Liverman and Merideth, 2002) rather than storm-
and wastewater drainage. Semadeni-Davies (2003, 2004)
demonstrated the use of response surfaces to visualise the
possible impacts of both climate and non-climatic change
on sewer infiltration, and hence water delivery to a waste-
water treatment plant in north-central Sweden. An exten-
sive literature review was carried out and no other
published examples of impact assessments for urban drain-
age could be found. The main conclusions of the work were
that: the impact of climate on inflows to the WWTP was sea-
sonally variable due to changes in the snowmelt cycle; and
renovation to the system with respect to sewer infiltration
has a potential to change inflows which is at least as great
as climate change.
In order to assess the impacts of changes to climate and
urban water management in Helsingborg, this study re-
quired the creation of both climate and urbanisation scenar-
ios. It must be remembered, however, that futurology is a
dangerous game in that a scenario is a picture of a possible
future rather than a prediction. IPCC (2000) introduces the
idea of social scenarios as storylines where different aspects
of society – such as gas emissions, politics, development
and environmental awareness – go hand-in-hand. Herein
lies the rub, decision makers and the methodologies they
use (e.g., the design-storm concept) require certainty yet
scenarios are inherently uncertain and require some degree
102 A. Semadeni-Davies et al.

of crystal-ball gazing. For this reason, the future drainage covered by impervious surfaces. Permeable surfaces are said
system is simulated here with two climate scenarios and to contribute to sewer infiltration or slow flow to the pipes.
three urbanisation storylines. Despite pointing out how sen- Sewer and pumping station overflows occur when storage in
sitive urban drainage in Helsingborg is to change, the wide the system is full in much the same way as a linear reservoir
range of outcomes possible makes this kind of study of lim- model. Surface runoff and pipe flow for the town centre is
ited value for planning and policy purposes (see Jones, simulated using the hydrodynamic module (HD) and sewer
2000). Nonetheless, it can identify the magnitude and direc- infiltration using the surface hydrological model MOUSE RDII
tion of the possible impacts. (Rainfall Dependant Inflow and Infiltration). Nutrient loads
(NH4 is used here as a tracer) flowing through the sanitary
Modelling approach sewer are modelled using the advection dispersion module
(AD); decay in the sewer is not included.
The combined sewer system was simulated for two 10-year
periods corresponding to present (1994–2003) and future Helsingborg
conditions (nominally 2081–2090) using the Danish Hydro-
logical Institute (DHI) MOUSE (MOdel of Urban SEwers) mod-
Location and climate
el. As MOUSE has been used world wide for a range of
climate conditions and sewer systems, it can be considered
Helsingborg lies on the Öresund Sound in the south of Swe-
robust for climate change impact assessment. Fig. 1 gives a
den and is within commuting distance of Malmö and Copen-
schematic overview of the modelling strategy. Climate
hagen to the south-east. The city faces the Danish city of
change is simulated for present and future conditions by
Helsingør, best known as the setting of Shakespeare’s Ham-
adjusting the existing high-resolution rainfall series col-
let. The location means that Helsingborg is an important his-
lected by the municipality according to climate change
torical regional centre with a fortress (now a park), rail hub,
anomalies determined from the output of a regional climate
ferry terminal and port. The dockyards, culminating at the
model. Changes in water management and urbanisation are
railway station/ferry terminal are directly opposite the cen-
simulated by changing model parameters such as the con-
tral business district. Within walking distance to the north is
nected drainage area and the ratio of impervious to perme-
a long sandy beach popular with bathers which makes the
able surfaces.
occurrence of CSO a potential health hazard.
The Helsingborg MOUSE model was set up in 1994 as part
The region is cool temperate with fairly mild winters. In
of a study into the impact of stormwater and sewer infiltra-
south Sweden the most intense rainfalls are associated with
tion on inflows to the WWTP and is used routinely by the
summer convective rainstorms while autumn rainfall is dom-
municipality for applications ranging from planning to real-
inated by long-duration frontal rain (e.g., Linderson, 2002).
time control. The model set-up used in this paper is fully de-
Snow is a minor part of the water balance, and is generally
scribed by Hernebring et al. (2002). The combined and sep-
confined to December to February. According to monthly cli-
arate sanitary sewer systems have been fully simulated
mate normals from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydro-
within MOUSE HD/AD and the model is run as part of the
logical Institute (SMHI, 1961–1990, weather station 6203)
operation of the WWTP. Inputs are high-resolution rainfall
there is a summer precipitation maximum followed closely
and monthly potential evaporation. As snow is only a minor
by autumn. The municipality installed eight new rain gauges
part of the annual water cycle, temperature is not an input.
(0.2 mm tipping bucket) in 1991. Site descriptions and data
Storm quick-flow into pipes via inlets is related to the area
handling methods are discussed in a report to the municipal-
ity prepared by DHI (2003). Of the gauges, two are located
near the town centre (and can be considered representative
Technology SUDS Land-use Population of rainfall in the sewer drainage area) and have operated
continuously with few maintenance problems. The rainfall
data from the two have been collated into 1-min rain blocks
Drainage to provide the high-resolution rainfall data used in this
Renovation Urbanisation
system study. The gauges are roughly 1.5 km apart and are located
at the municipal technical department about 1 km to the
MOUSE east of the wastewater treatment plant and Bendzgatan.
Scenarios for
Urban climate model of
Helsingborg
combined sewer system
The combined system

Downscaling + Like most Swedish cities, central Helsingborg, the oldest

Disaggregation part of the city, has a combined sewer system (Fig. 2).
OUTPUT
Waste water inflows
The WWTP is located at a dockyard industrial area just to
Overflow (CSO) the south of the city centre. The catchment area connected
NH4 transport to the WWTP is approximately 50 km2. The sewer system is
Regional climate GCM
(RCAO) (HadAM3H ) partly combined with 170 ha impervious area connected to
the sewers, mainly in the central part of the city. There
Figure 1 Impact assessment for the combined sewer system are 15 overflow sites (i.e., 13 weir discharges, these are
in Helsingborg. Climate change is joined by storylines for urban so-called weir CSOs, and two off-shore pipes each leading
drainage and city development. from a pumping station). Overflow via the CSO weirs and
The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden
100mm
100
Internal
CSO
WWTP
WWTP
Pumping
station
off-shore pipes
2 km
Figure 2 Overview of the combined sewer system in central Helsingborg. The inset shows the system geometry at the wastewater
treatment plant, note the internal CSO loop with a storage tank and pump station.
the off-shore pipes are fundamentally different in that the
latter leads water to the Öresund Sound rather than into
the harbour. For this reason, pumping overflows through
the off-shore pipes is the preferred first option and weir dis-
charge only occurs if there is too much water for the pump-
ing stations to handle. The off-shore pipes are located at
the north harbour and the WWTP and each pumping station
has a primary and three secondary pumps. The flow capacity
of the pumps varies between 0.12 and 0.2 m3/s, respec-
tively. The pumps are turned on successively as needs be,
thus all eight of the pumps will only be in action during
the most severe rainstorms. In addition to the weirs and
off-shore pipes, the system has two internal CSOs – one
which is a connection between two parallel sections of
the sewer system and the other where excess stormwater
is pumped back into the system once the flow in the sewer
subsides – neither represents a loss to the combined sys-
tem. The inset in Fig. 2 shows the system near the WWTP;
one of the internal CSOs, with a loop to a storage tank
and pumping station, can be clearly seen.
On average, overflows occur three or four times per year
and are associated with heavy convective rainfall events in
late summer and autumn. Despite the low percentage over-
flow volume in terms of the total flow to the WWTP (around
0.4%), nutrients from waste water are a major threat to the
water quality of the harbour, and, as Helsingborg is known
for its safe bathing, overflows are a human health hazard.
Indeed, toxic algal blooms have occurred on occasion along
the coast between Helsingborg and Malmö to the south, al-
beit, largely due to fertilizer in agricultural runoff.
The MOUSE model parameters which describe the current
water and nutrient flows in the combined sewer are listed
below.
• Permeable surfaces – area contributing to sewer infiltra-
tion (ha), 2914.
• Impervious surfaces – area contributing to direct flow via
drains (ha), 164.
103
Storage tanks with CSO weirs
Internal CSO
Pumping stations
(with and without overflow weirs)
• Specific water use (l/person/day), 250.
• Specific pollution – ammonia, NH4 (g/person/day) 9.85.
• Population served, 122,895.
Scenarios for change
Climate change
It is generally accepted that the global climate will warm
during this century (IPCC, 1996, 2001). However, the mag-
nitude of that change is uncertain. Climate change projec-
tions are made using general circulation models (GCMs)
which simulate large scale atmospheric processes using
equations that describe the flow of energy and momentum
and the conservation of mass and water vapour. Early
simulations were often based on a doubling of CO2 from
pre-industrial levels over the next century, but the current
standard is the IPCC SRES set of gas emission scenarios
(IPCC, 2000). In all there are some 40 scenarios grouped
into four families: B1 (low), B2 (medium/low), A1 (med-
ium/high) and A2 (high). These allow for different possible
futures according to different world views. The gas
emission scenarios can be seen as a starting point for con-
structing social change storylines allowing a link between
society and climate within impact assessments (e.g., UK-
CIP, 2001).
Although all GCMs describe basically the same physical
processes, climate changes simulated by different GCMs
can be contradictory and there is no easy way of deciding
on the most reliable simulation. The wide range of possible
climate change projections was illustrated for Europe
including Sweden by the ACACIA intercomparison of GCM
simulations (Hulme and Carter, 2000). Each GCM simulation
incorporates errors which is often referred to as a cascade
or explosion of uncertainty where the errors are
compounded at every step (Jones, 2000). A state-of-the-
art review of modelling methods can be found in Giorgi
(2005) which discusses the effects of initialisation
104
conditions, gas emission scenario, non-linear (e.g., feed-
backs, threshold behaviours and circulation regimes) and
stochastic (e.g., cumulative convection) processes on cli-
mate models. He further states that the stochastic compo-
nent of natural and anthropogenic forcings, the lack of
knowledge about the initial state of the climate system
and the non-linearities and stochastic elements in the
behaviour of climate make detailed climate prediction for
the 21st century a virtual impossibility. The ideal would
be to assign probabilities to the various underlying assump-
tions within climate models, and this seems to be a new
thrust in climate change research (Giorgi, 2005). In the in-
terim, the accepted wisdom is to carry out impact assess-
ment for a range of climate scenarios (e.g., Pittock, 1993).
Another challenge when building climate scenarios for
impact assessment of water systems is the discordant scales
between hydrological and climate models. The former must
parameterise upwards while the latter must parameterise
downwards if land surface and atmospheric processes are
to meet in models. Hostetler (1994) commented on this
problem over a decade ago and the subsequent interest
for simulating realistic precipitation statistics on hydrologi-
cally relevant scales has been great. Regional climate mod-
els go some way to downscale and disaggregate climate data
from GCMs. However, these models add another layer of
uncertainty as climate variability becomes more pro-
nounced at the regional scale. Urban areas, which are prone
to localised flooding and poor water quality, are particularly
problematic as drainage processes operate on spatial and
temporal scales of metres and minutes (Schilling, 1991)
and require still further downscaling. Thus construction of
climate scenarios suitable for urban applications which cap-
ture local rainfall patterns was paramount in this project.
Generally, intense convective rainstorms have shorter dura-
tion and lower frequency than low-intensity rainfalls (e.g.,
fronts), the latter determine background parameters such
as soil moisture while the former are responsible for peak
flows (and CSO).
RCAO – the regional climate model
The basis for the climate scenarios is the RCAO model devel-
oped by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Insti-
tute (SMHI) Rossby Centre (Räisänen et al., 2004). RCAO is
a coupled atmospheric and oceanographic regional climate
model which uses a dynamical method to nest regional scale
(49 km) climate forecasts within a larger GCM grid. The
model provides continuous data for the period 2071–2100;
while calculations are made with 36-min time-steps, the
outputs are summed to save disc space. Thus, the rainfall
blocks are at present 6-hourly. In recognition of the wide
range of projections relating to gas emission and GCM
Table 1 Precipitation summary for present climate conditions
Observations
SMHI daily (1961–1990) Municipal tipping
bucket (1994–2003)
Annual total (mm) 737 641
Raindays (days/year) – 84
Max. rainfall (mm/6 h) – 64 (September 1994)
A. Semadeni-Davies et al.
choice, RCAO has been forced using the Hadley Centre Ha-
dAM3H (RH) and Max Planck Institute ECHAM4/OPYC3 (RE)
GCM simulations run with the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES gas emis-
sion scenarios (IPCC, 2000). There is also a RCAO control run
for each GCM which simulates present conditions (1961–
1990).
Achberger et al. (2003) found that the RCA1 model, a
predecessor of RCAO, was unable to capture the spatial var-
iation of precipitation in southern Sweden which has a ob-
servable scale of 20–35 km. The RCAO model has a
different formulation of atmospheric and land surface inter-
action, but there is still a fundamental difference in spatial
scale which could not be overcome here. For this project,
the grid cell closest to Helsingborg was chosen for scenario
development. A summary of the filtered rainfall statistics
for present conditions is given in Table 1. RCAO is known
to overestimate the frequency of events with low to moder-
ate rainfall intensities in its simulations of northern Europe
(Räisänen et al., 2004), hence rainfalls with intensities less
than 0.4 mm/6 were removed prior to comparison.
As the RE control simulation was unable to capture the
observed annual volume or seasonal distribution of rainfall,
these scenarios were discarded. The RH model is able to
capture seasonal variations in monthly rainfall totals for
Helsingborg (Fig. 3) but captures neither the number of rain-
days (over-estimation) nor the distribution of 6-hourly rain-
fall intensities. Note that the difference between the SMHI
normals (1961–1991) and monthly values derived from the
high-resolution data (1994–2003) is in the same order as
for the RH simulation (the difference between observations
is most likely due to location). Despite the ability to simu-
late monthly precipitation reasonably well, RH overesti-
100 SMHI normals
Average Monthly Precipitation (mm)
High resolution
80
RCAO
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 3 Simulated RCAORH control run (1961–1990) com-
pared to observed mean monthly precipitation (SMHI normals
1961–1990 and high-resolution data 1994–2003).
RCAO control runs
HadCM2 (1961–1990) ECHAM (1961–1990)
780 916
95 111
23 (August) 27 (August)
The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden 105

6-hourly intensity for the simulated rainstorms is consis-

120
tently around a third of that observed. To illustrate, the
Mean monthly precipitation (mm)

100 T = 12 year 6-h rainstorm for the RH simulation is only

20 mm compared to 64 mm for the observed maximum rain-
80 fall for the 12 years that observations were available.
Fig. 4a–d give a summary of the precipitation simula-
60
tions made by RH. Both the A2 and B2 runs suggest increased
40 annual precipitation, although there is a decrease in sum-
mer. The total number of raindays (24 h periods with rain)
20 shows fairly similar pattern with an increase in winter and
decrease in late summer. However, there is a marked
0
change in the storm rainfall and the number of storm events
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
(defined as rainfalls over 10 mm/6 h, see Semadeni-Davies
b 14 et al., 2005). Storminess increases in early summer and au-
tumn but drops in July and August – the months which cur-
Average number rain days

12
rently have the most rainstorms. Intense rainfall is currently
10 associated with convection cells which occur as a result of
warming over sea which suggests a shift in seasonality pos-
8
sibly due to a shift in the mechanisms that drive rainfall.
6 The pattern of increased storm rainfall and number of storm
4
events roughly coincide, thus, the increase in monthly storm
rainfall volumes (Fig. 4c) is probably due to more frequent
2 rainstorms (Fig. 4d) rather than higher rainfall intensities.
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Delta-change
c Several disaggregation methods have been reported in the
18
literature with a range of complexities and underlying
Mean monthly storm precipitation

16 assumptions. A recent comparison of urban applications

14 can be found in Hingray and Ben Haha (2005), they show
12 that deterministic and simple stochastic methods perform
10 poorly while scale-based methods (fractals) were only mar-
(mm)

8 ginally better. Cowpertwait et al. (2004) had more success

6 with a stochastic weather generator to extend historical
4
rainfall records. However, both studies started with hourly
observed rainfall records rather than 6-hourly and neither
2
intended that the methods be used to disaggregate future
0
rainfall scenarios for impact assessments.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
For this project, a commercially available stochastic
weather generator was trailed to disaggregate the RH 6-
d 0.35
hourly climate data into 5-min intervals. However, the
Average number storm days

0.3 results were unreliable due to both the inability of RH to

0.25 capture the intensity of rainstorms in particular and as the
weather generator was developed in the UK for British con-
0.2
ditions and could not readily be adapted to south Sweden.
0.15 Given the uncertainties involved and in the absence of other
viable methods, it was decided to use the simpler delta-
0.1
change method.
0.05 Delta-change is commonly used to transfer the signal of
climate models to hydrological models by manipulating ob-
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
served input data (e.g., Andréasson et al., 2004). The meth-
od compares present and future climate simulations from
Figure 4 Change in precipitation patterns simulated by RH: the climate model to determine monthly change anomalies
(a) mean monthly precipitation; (b) raindays; (c) monthly which are then applied to perturb observed data from cur-
rainstorm precipitation; (d) stormy days. Dark grey = control rent or historical records. Thus for precipitation, the del-
run (1961–1990), medium grey = A2 high gas emission scenario ta-change anomaly is the percentage increase or decrease
(2071–2100), light grey = B2 medium gas emission scenario in average monthly or seasonal precipitation and observa-
(2071–2100). tions are scaled up or down accordingly. There are two main
assumptions: a. that progressive GCM runs simulate relative
mates the number of low-intensity rainfalls at the expense changes in climate rather than absolute changes; and b.
of rainstorm intensity which is underestimated. When that there is no change in the number of precipitation
ranked and normalised for the length of the data set (i.e., events (i.e., raindays). The second assumption is problem-
12 years of observation vs. 30 years simulation), the atic as the RH model clearly shows an increase in storm
106 A. Semadeni-Davies et al.

frequency over parts of Sweden including Helsingborg – as
was noted above.
The major advantage of delta-change is its simplicity,
that is, no manipulation of the climate model output data
is required. As an existing data set forms the basis of the
transformation, the impact of climate change on individual
rainstorms and the response of the hydrological system to
those rainstorms can be compared. In the strictest sense,
the method should only be applied to observations with sim-
ilar spatial and temporal resolutions to avoid over-general-
ising trends seen in the climate model. However, in
practice, delta-change has been used to adjust higher reso-
lution observations for climate change in order to carry out
hydrological impact assessments. The most documented
example is Hay et al. (2000) which used both the delta-
change method and a statistical downscaling model to cre-
ate regional climate scenarios with daily time-steps for
three alpine catchments from monthly GCM data. Indeed,
the method was the main future scenario generation tech-
nique recommended by the US Global Change Research Pro-
gram (National Assessment of the Potential Consequences
of Climate Variability and Change, http://www.usgcrp.
gov/usgcrp/nacc/default.htm).
In the case of Helsingborg, both the A2 and B2 RH scenar-
ios predict decreased summer rainfall, particularly for low-
intensity events. However, there seems to be increased
early summer and autumn storminess. Thus, two sets of
monthly delta-change anomalies were created called storm
and drizzle (Table 2). Semadeni-Davies et al. (2005) looked
at observed rainfall distributions and found that 10 mm/6 h
seems to be a natural threshold for rainstorms. Indeed, the
curves for observed (1994–2003) and simulated RH (1961–
1990) rainfall intensity against return period converge at
this point. An event of this intensity has a return period of
around four months and, under current conditions in the
drainage system, could be expected to result in a sewer
overflow.
To apply the delta-change anomalies, the high-resolution
data was first aggregated into 6-hourly time-steps to iden-
tify rainstorms and drizzle using the same threshold. The
tipping bucket readings were tagged and then adjusted
accordingly. As the 6-hourly rainfall maximums have
approximately the same timing as the high-resolution rain-
fall peaks, it is reasonable to assume that the method cap-
tures all high intensity storm events. While the delta-change
method is not ideal, particularly in the assumption that
storm frequency is stable, it does offer a workable solution
to the problem of discordant temporal scale. Caution must
be exercised for some months, such as November, which
has few rainstorms at present but is likely to have more
storm events in the future: the assumption that the number
of raindays does not change means that the method could
overestimate the increase in storm intensity. Similarly, del-
ta-change values less than one could point to fewer rain-
storms rather than reduced intensity. Delta-change
transformations were also applied to monthly potential
evapotranspiration.
Urbanisation
Urban areas are arguably the most modified of human envi-
ronments and urbanisation affects all parts of the hydrolog-
ical cycle, usually to the detriment of local water
resources. Removal of vegetation, increased impervious-
ness (i.e., roofs, roads, footpaths, etc.), short flow paths
to drain inlets and efficient drainage via buried pipes
means that urban hydrographs are characterised by high
flow peaks and fast response to even minor precipitation
events. Towns also tend to have reduced evapotranspira-
tion and ground water recharge which can lead to other
problems like subsidence. The question in this project is
the role that urban water policies, management practices
and drainage structures will play in future urban drainage
under changed climate conditions. Obviously, these prac-
tices are linked to the values, economy and technology
of society as a whole.
One of the most comprehensive studies to determine so-
cio-economic storylines for climate change impact assess-
ment has been undertaken as part of the UK Climate
Impacts Programme (UKCIP, 2001; Berkhout et al., 2002;
Shackley and Deanwood, 2002). A variety of stakeholders
ranging from researchers and policy makers to industry

Table 2 Monthly delta-change anomalies for precipitation and potential evaporation

Rainfall Potential Evapotranspiration
RCAO Had B2 RCAO Had A2 RCAO Had B2 RCAO Had A2
Drizzle Storm Drizzle Storm
January 1.10 1.00 1.40 1.00 1.19 1.59
February 1.28 0.95 1.36 0.67 1.16 1.40
March 1.04 1.00 1.21 1.00 1.17 1.38
April 1.11 2.24 0.95 0.32 1.14 1.26
May 1.14 1.87 1.31 3.74 1.16 1.22
June 0.87 2.30 0.85 1.44 1.04 1.17
July 0.64 0.61 0.68 0.71 1.09 1.21
August 0.69 0.81 0.55 0.80 1.20 1.32
September 1.00 0.97 0.60 1.42 1.17 1.33
October 1.04 2.54 1.11 5.55 1.26 1.26
November 1.15 2.88 1.13 1.27 1.29 1.29
December 1.25 4.17 1.28 2.02 1.24 1.32
The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden
and NGOs were consulted to create four storylines based on
differing world views. Each storyline has interlinked impacts
on, among others, greenhouse gas emissions, education,
trade, industry, agriculture, water and biodiversity. The
storylines are national enterprise, world markets, global
sustainability and local stewardship and are roughly equiv-
alent to the IPCC SRES A2, A1, B1 and B2 gas emission sce-
narios, respectively. The experiences of the UKCIP were
used when deciding on factors important for the creation
of storylines for Helsingborg.
Trends in urbanisation
The world is currently undergoing a period of rapid urbani-
sation largely due to population growth and rural to urban
immigration. However, in much of Europe population
growth is slowing and demographics point to an aging soci-
ety; thus urbanisation has been largely driven by the trend
towards smaller households. This can be seen in Sweden
where people are remaining single longer. In Sweden, there
was a trend of urban expansion due to government initia-
tives such as the Million Homes Programme (Miljonprogram-
met) between 1960 and 1975. Today, where new
subdivisions are constructed, brown field sites and spaces
between existing town areas are often used in preference
to expansion. Over the last decade there has also been gen-
trification of city centres (Engström and Legeby, 2001).
Increased urbanisation in some towns, particularly in south-
ern Sweden, can partly be attributed to the high number of
immigrants.
Overlying urbanisation is the current trend towards sus-
tainable cities. At an international level, ensuring a sus-
tainable environment is goal seven of the UN Millenium
Project (e.g., UN, 2005). Sweden has embraced this ideal,
Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm and Augustenborg in
Malmö are good examples. The former was established on
a port/industrial brown-field site in 1995. New apartment
blocks for 20,000 residents have been built or are planned
in the near future, these buildings are separated by green
spaces and there is integrated energy, waste and water
management. Clean stormwater is used directly in green
spaces as either open water or for irrigation while road-
runoff is treated before it flows to the sea. In contrast,
Augustenborg is an existing inner city suburb established
in the 1950s that has been renovated as part of the Ecosta-
den (eco-city) urban renewal project under the auspices of
Malmö public works and municipal housing authorities. The
project is committed to waste reduction, reuse and recy-
cling, energy efficiency and local disposal of stormwater.
Augustenborg is discussed further below as the new storm-
water system is the model for the Helsingborg urban drain-
age storylines.
Trends in urban water management: day-lighting of
combined sewers
Drainage system maintenance, rehabilitation and renova-
tion is to be expected over the course of the century, but
innovation is ongoing and it remains to be seen what strat-
egies will be adopted in the future. The strategies currently
employed in sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS; also
called best management practices, BMPS) are often in the
same direction as climate change adaptation behaviour.
Whilst SUDS are currently installed for reasons other than
107
climate change, such new drainage systems may become
imperative to reduce the impacts of any possible increase
in precipitation, particularly with respect to flooding. Ac-
tors demanding changes to urban drainage for flood risk
management are likely to include local residents, service
providers, developers and insurers. These groups can exert
considerable pressure on urban water managers due to the
legal requirements of municipalities to plan for flooding
and to compensate for damage if that planning is inade-
quate (Didón, 1995). However, the position of municipali-
ties with respect to climate change is unclear.
Sweden has an historical legacy of combined sewer sys-
tems for waste- and stormwater in inner cities which were
built between the mid 19th and 20th centuries in a period
of the rapid urbanisation following the industrial revolution.
At that time, domestic waste was disposed of in the streets
and there was no distinction between waste- and storm-
water. This polluted water was neither collected nor trea-
ted. The ethos behind combined systems was a need to
remove water as quickly as possible from towns. Combined
sewers were designed to cope with a certain level of flow,
too little and solid waste may not be transported causing
blockages, too much and the system overloads. Combined
sewer overflows which remove excess water from the sewer
are an integral part of the combined sewer system. These
are storage structures with a main ‘‘dry weather’’ outlet
and an overflow weir leading to a secondary ‘‘wet weather’’
outlet. During rainstorms, not all the water is able to flow
via the main outlet and the water level rises behind the
weir. For low-intensity rainstorms, the water is stored tem-
porarily and is able to eventually flow via the main outlet.
For high intensity rainstorms, the water overtops the weir
and flows via the secondary outlet to local receiving waters.
As towns have grown (i.e., more impervious areas and con-
nections to the pipe network), the result has been height-
ened flood risk and overflows. Pumping stations have
similar overflows which are activated during rainstorms.
At present, wholesale replacement of combined sewers is
not feasible due to the cost and logistics of re-construction.
The best that can be hoped for in the near future is renova-
tion or stormwater disconnection similar to Augustenborg
(see below). However, as combined systems age, replace-
ment of some sections may become necessary, especially
where there is excessive sewer infiltration of groundwater
(this is equivalent to baseflow and can greatly increase
hydraulic loads to the WWTP in the long-term).
From the 1950s, separate pipe networks for waste- and
stormwater have become standard. In the last decade,
there has been a paradigm shift towards urban water recov-
ery and re-use where the primary objective is to limit the
impacts of urbanisation on the wider water system. SUDS
for stormwater control and treatment are becoming com-
monplace in newer housing developments the world over
(US EPA, 1991; Urbonas and Stahre, 1993) including in Swe-
den. While more common in new subdivisions, SUDS have
also been installed in inner city areas. A prime Swedish
example is the urban renewal project at Augustenborg in
central Malmö that was discussed above. The area, some
50 km south of Helsingborg, is the model for the drainage
storylines developed for this study. The stormwater was dis-
connected in 2001 in favour of a new open water system
consisting of a variety of SUDS for source control which
108
include swales, rain-gardens, porous pavement in car parks,
greenroofs, open water channels and ponds. Prior to day-
lighting, there were nuisance surface flows and basements
were regularly inundated by wastewater following surges
in the combined sewer system. These events have now
ceased and CSO has been reduced by an estimated 75%
(Villarreal et al., 2004).
Also of interest here are advances in sanitary engineering
and low-water use appliances. Dual flush toilets are now
standard in Sweden, these reduce urine flushes to 3 l/flush
from the ordinary 6 or 9 l/flush. Other advances include
the development of low-water use appliances (e.g., washing
machines which use 40 l instead of the more usual 60 l).
Villarreal and Dixon (2005) looked at water use at an apart-
ment complex in the Swedish city of Norrköping, they
estimate that of the 190 l/day each person currently uses
on average, 40 l is for toilet flushing and 30 l for laundry –
thus with low-water use washing machines and low-flush toi-
lets, each person could reduce their water use to around
150 l/day. Installation of urine separation toilets and on-site
or in-sewer treatment would also reduce nutrient and water
loads reaching wastewater treatment plants. However,
their implementation is limited by installation costs, and a
lack of storage space for waste, municipal services (e.g.,
waste removal and processing) and social acceptance.
Storylines for Helsingborg: the central combined sewer
system
The drainage system storylines progress from no-change to
an ideal where new technologies and changes in human
behaviour work to conserve water and improve water qual-
ity. The storylines are not strictly comparable to IPCC SRES
or UKCIP storylines described above, rather, they have as-
pects of these based on local plans and trends. At opposite
ends, Storyline 2 (growth but limited innovation) is most
akin the national enterprise/A2 storylines, whereas Story-
line 4 (growth met with sustainable development) is an ideal
in the same vein as the global sustainability/B1 storylines.
The storylines are:
• Storyline 1 – current situation. This storyline is the busi-
ness-as-usual control run for comparison in which nothing
but climate is changed. The storyline represents a society
that is unable to respond to change whether it be envi-
ronmental, political, technological, economic or social.
• Storyline 2 – projection of current situation with
increased population. This storyline assumes that the
city size increases but that there is no change to the type
of urban drainage system installed from the status quo.
The growth is largely due to the subdivision of Lussebäc-
ken catchment which is currently dominated by arable
Table 3 Parameters within the MOUSE model for simulation of the combined sewer system
Storyline 1
Permeable surfaces (ha) 2914
Impervious surfaces (ha) 164
Population 122,895
Specific water use (l/person/day) 250
Specific pollution (NH4 g/person/day) 9.85
A. Semadeni-Davies et al.
land with some urbanisation at the lower reaches. Waste-
water from the planned new subdivision will likely be
added directly to the combined system. Thus the popula-
tion served by the combined sewer system increases by
50% but water supply metering will slightly lower per
capita water use. Suburban areas in Sweden currently
have around 30% impervious surfaces, which will be
applied to the subdivided area. The subdivision will have
a separate system and neither stormwater nor sewer
infiltration from Lussebäcken are added to the combined
system.
• Storyline 3 – stormwater disconnection in the central
city. This storyline builds on the population growth and
urbanisation in storyline 2. CSO limiting systems are
installed so that 75% of the impervious surfaces are dis-
connected from the combined sewer system. The prece-
dent for this storyline is the introduction of source
control at Augustenborg in central Malmö. For wastewa-
ter, sewer infiltration in the combined and separate
wastewater systems will be reduced by 25% using remedi-
ation or pipe replacement.
• Storyline 4 – water demand reduction This storyline rep-
resents an ideal situation. Urine separation toilets in 20%
of new households (i.e., the Lussebäcken subdivision)
will reduce both the hydraulic and nutrient loads in the
sewer system. It is estimated that urine separation in
new homes could reduce the specific load of nitrogen
by some 25%. Low-water use appliances and dual-flush
toilets would reduce water use to around 180 l/day per
person.
Despite the population increase following subdivision in
Lussebäcken catchment, the geometry of the combined
sewer system was not changed. The resulting MOUSE para-
meters are given in Table 3. Note that the net effect of dis-
connecting stormwater from the system is a reduction of
impervious surfaces. The reduction of sewer infiltration is
modelled as a reduction of permeable surfaces, this concep-
tually lowers simulated groundwater recharge and therefore
the water table.
Results with discussion
In recognition that CSOs and pumping station overflows have
both acute and chronic impacts on receiving waters, the re-
sults are given for the entire 10-year period and for separate
events. For current conditions, the WWTP receives on aver-
age 19.33 million cubic metres of inflow per year, 11.24 mil-
lion (58%) of which is wastewater (black and grey water).
The remaining flow is stormwater from inlets (0.98 mil-
Storyline 2 Storyline 3 Storyline 4
2914 2185 2185
164 41 41
182,927 182,927 182,927
234 234 180
9.85 9.85 8.37
The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden 109

lion m3) and sewer infiltration from groundwater (7.12 mil- 3.0
lion m3). Overflows occur as a result of high intensity rain-

VOLUME (x10 m )
2.5

3
storms, usually during the summer months, and total

8
around 0.38% of the total flow. Over the 10-year simulation 2.0
period, an estimated 2610 kg of ammonium (NH4) was re-
leased to the harbour and Öresund Sound via overflows. 1.5

Inflow to the WWTP
Fig. 5 compares the relative inflows of stormwater and sew-
er infiltration to the WWTP. MOUSE models surface water
contributions to the combined sewer conceptually where
stormwater is analogous to quickflow and sewer infiltration
to baseflow. While sewer infiltration over the 10-year period
is seven times greater than stormwater for the unchanged
sewer system (storylines 1 and 2), irrespective of climate
change, it is the latter which has the most impact on over-
flows and uneven water delivery at the WWTP. The main im-
pact of sewer infiltration is to dilute waste water. The ratio
between the two sources of surface water increases to over
20 for the storylines 3 and 4 largely due to the disconnection
of stormwater from the sewer system.
Fig. 6 shows change in inflow. Climate change could
cause an increase in inflows due largely to sewer infiltration.
With no system changes (storyline 1), total inflow to the
WWTP, for instance, will increase by 10% for the A2 climate
scenario. In terms of the drainage storylines, there are two
clear groupings which relate to the degree of sewer renova-
tion and stormwater disconnection. Storylines 1 and 2 (city
growth) show an increase in total inflow with climate
change whereas storylines 3 (source control, reduced sewer
infiltration) and 4 (ideal) show that the relative impacts of
both climate change and urbanisation can be more than
met by implementing current trends in urban water man-
Present
Future B2
a 0.12
Future A2
VOLUME (x10 m )
1.0
0.5
Future A2
0.0 Future B2
1 Present
2
3
4
Figure 6 Total inflow to the WWTP over the 10-year simu-
lation period for present and future climate scenarios and
urbanisation storylines.
agement. For storyline 2, climate change and urbanisation
could increase total inflow at the WWTP by up to 33% com-
pared with present volumes. With no climate change, story-
line 3 would result in a 10% increase in total inflow
compared to storyline 1, but a switch to low-water use tech-
nologies (storyline 4) would lead to a decrease of the same
amount despite the increased population size.
Fig. 7 shows the ratio of wastewater to total inflow for
the 10-period. There is a slight decrease (5% for the A2 cli-
mate scenario) with climate change largely due to increased
sewer infiltration. All the socio-economic change storylines
show increased long-term wastewater ratios due to popula-
tion growth. Obviously, the dilution and high hydraulic loads
are greatest following discrete rainfall events (not shown).
At present, most peak flows are in summer, although there
are some periods with continuous high flows in late winter
and spring. A comparison of inflows for storyline 1 shows
that increased storminess with climate change leads to a
slightly raised number of high flows in early summer and au-
tumn – but the peak volumes are roughly the same as now.
However, the incidence of flow events and continuous high
flows increase in autumn and winter during wet years. By
contrast, the number of high flows for storylines 3 and 4 is

0.1
3

greatly reduced for all the climate simulations, thus

8

0.08
although there is still wastewater dilution, flow is evened
0.06 out.
0.04
0.02
1.0
0
Waste water / Total inflow

1 and 2 3 and 4
0.8

b 1
0.6
VOLUME (x10 m3 )

0.8
8

0.6 0.4

0.4
0.2
0.2 Future A2
0.0 Future B2
0
1 Present
1 and 2 3 and 4 2
3
Urbanisation storyline 4

Figure 5 Surface water volumes flowing to the WWTP for the Figure 7 Ratio of wastewater to total inflow over the 10-year
10-year simulation period given changed climate and drainage simulation period for present and future climate scenarios and
characteristics: (a) stormwater; (b) sewer infiltration. urbanisation storylines.
110 A. Semadeni-Davies et al.

Overflow volumes
The fact that overflow of untreated wastewater is a non-lin-
ear process can be seen in the greater relative decreases in
overflow volumes of the progressive storylines (Fig. 8) with
respect to both sewer infiltration and total inflow . This re-
flects the decrease in stormwater inflow due to the reduc-
tion of impervious surfaces contributing to inflow after
rain events. Pumping station overflows via the off-shore
pipes, which are the first overflow option, occur more often
than discharges at CSO weirs. The total overflow for the
10-year period is twice as great for the pumping stations
compared to weir CSOs (488177 m3 vs. 247,737 m3). Pump-
ing station overflows occur around 15 times per year at
the north harbour and 1–2 times at the WWTP; weir CSO
occurs 3–5 times per year, depending on the weir location.
Most overflows occur in summer and autumn, but they can
occur in winter and spring during wet years. The wettest
year was 2002, this year had the most weir CSOs (up to
10) and pumping station overflows (27 at the north harbour)
and the greatest overflow volume. Discharges from the CSO
weirs were as almost great in 1994, though the pumping sta-
tion overflow volumes were much less.
2.5
2.0
VOLUME (x10 m )
For the present combined sewer system, the 10-year to-
tal volume of weir CSO and pumping station overflows dou-
bles for the B2 climate scenario and almost trebles for the
A2 scenario due to increased storminess. Fig. 9 gives a com-
parison of storyline 1 weir CSO discharge events for the
years 2001–2002 calculated with the present and A2 cli-
mates. This period covers an average year and the wettest
in the study. The pumping station overflows (not shown)
have much the same pattern of more frequent overflows
and greater volumes, that is, the secondary pumps will be
in use more often.
Storyline 2 shows increased overflow events for all the
simulations. With no climate change, population growth will
lead to an increase in total overflow volumes (both weir and
pumping station overflows) of 18% due to increased water
use (and wastewater in the sewer). This incidence of over-
flow is much greater for the climate change scenarios; the
A2 simulation results in a 318% increase in total overflow
volume compared to today. However, renovating the system
and implementing source control measures (storylines 3 and
4) all but eliminate these overflows. Climate change causes
a modest increase in overflows, but the total volume is less
than experienced today.
The increase in overflow following climate change can
be seen in the discharge records for the individual CSO
weirs. For storyline 1, not only are the discharge volumes
greater for most of the weir locations, there are more
events leading to overflow. Indeed, some locations which
rarely have discharge today could have several overflows

per year. By implementing new technology, idealised in

3
6

1.5 storyline 4, overflows from some CSO weirs could cease

altogether.
1.0

0.5 Ammonium transport and loss

Future A2
0.0 Future B2 In terms of environmental impact, the concentration and
1
Present
mass of pollutants released from overflows is of greater
2
3
4
importance than overflow volumes per se. Pollutant release
at receiving waters results in both short-term shocks follow-
Figure 8 Total volume of combined sewer and pumping ing overflows and long-term degradation as pollutants accu-
station overflows for the 10-year simulation period for present mulate. In this project, NH4, a nutrient largely originating
and future climate scenarios and urbanisation storylines. from urine, was used as a tracer pollutant for wastewater.
Pollutant load is the product of flow volume and concentra-
tion, and while the general trend is for increased load with
8000 increased overflow volumes, overflows do not always result
A2 climate scenario in high losses of NH4 if the wastewater is sufficiently diluted
7000 Present
with stormwater. Logically, population increase leads to
6000 greater nutrient transport in the sewer irrespective of cli-
CSO volume (m )
3

5000
mate change. Table 4 shows the dry weather concentration
and 10-year total load of nitrogen (NH4–N) carried in waste-
4000 water for the different storylines. Compared to today’s sit-
3000 uation, population growth (storyline 2) has a greater
potential impact on nutrient release than climate change
2000 (Fig. 10). Moreover, population growth has a greater impact
1000 on nutrient release than on overflow volumes. When climate
change is added, the total load of nitrogen carried in over-
0
flows could almost quadruple. Conversely, the reduction in
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
overflows for storylines 3 and 4 will mean that pollution at
Figure 9 Total CSO volumes (via weir discharges) for urban- the receiving waters will likewise be reduced. Storyline 4
isation storyline 1 and climate scenario A2, base period 2001– shows the greatest reduction in nitrogen release via over-
2002. flows due to the installation of urine separation toilets –
The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden
Table 4 Estimated ammonium carried in wastewater for the 10-year simulation period
Storyline 1
Concentration (mg/l) 39
Load (kg) 4,421,410
12
10
NH4 -N (1000 kg)
8
6 intensity rather than frequency. This means, for instance,
4 since at least a part of the increase in storm precipitation
2
Future A2
0 Future B2
1 Present
2
3 tion events reach the threshold of 10 mm/6 h. While the use
4
Figure 10 Total load to nitrogen released to receiving waters
via overflows from the combined sewer for the 10-year
simulation period for present and future climate scenarios
and urbanisation storylines.
even with the A2 climate change, the loss of nitrogen via
overflow would be not even half of today’s value.
Summary and conclusions
This study has undertaken an assessment of the relative im-
pacts of climate change and system change on wastewater
flows in the city of Helsingborg, south Sweden. The objec-
tive was made in accordance with IPCC calls for climate
change impact assessments of real-world water systems.
Water and pollution flows in the central city combined
sewer network was simulated with the MOUSE urban drain-
age model for several climate change scenarios. The soft-
ware has been applied all over the world and can be
considered robust for climate change impact assessment.
Climate change was simulated by altering high-resolution
rainfall data while the urbanisation storylines were simu-
lated by changing model parameters.
As well as the current conditions (no-change) three story-
lines for urban drainage were identified which ranged from
city growth through to urban renewal. The storylines were
based on current trends in Swedish urbanisation. The story-
lines are roughly equivalent to those determined by the UK-
CIP (2001) which are in turn related to the IPCC SRES gas
emission scenarios (2000).
The starting point for the two changed climate scenarios
was the RCAO regional climate model developed by the
Rossby Centre forced with the Hadley Centre HadAM3H
GCM. The RCAO simulation has a control run (1961–1990)
as well as two future runs (2071–2100) based on the IPCC
SRES B2 and A2 gas emission scenarios, respectively. As
RCAO output has a temporal resolution (6 h) which is
unsuited to urban applications, the delta-change method
was used to transform the existing high-resolution rainfall
111
Storyline 2 Storyline 3 Storyline 4
42 42 47
6,581,190 6,581,190 5,594,010
series (0.2 mm tipping bucket) according to climate change
anomalies identified between the RCAO control and future
runs. Thus, the results of the drainage simulations must
be treated with caution in that the method assumes that
changes in precipitation are due to changed rainstorm
that the rise in overflow volumes may be overestimated,
very likely comes from an increase in the frequency rather
than intensity of storm events (see Fig. 4c and d). As a re-
sult, the magnitude of the extremes increases slightly, at
the same time as a significantly larger number of precipita-
of the delta-change method is far from satisfactory, it is of-
ten used for impact assessments and was chosen for this
project in the absence of any viable alternatives.
Specific findings are:
– Without further city development, climate change
projected for Helsingborg could exacerbate the cur-
rent drainage problems (i.e., overflows from the com-
bined sewer) by increasing precipitation and therefore
surface runoff.
– City growth (storyline 2) could lead to significant
increases in overflow volumes and nutrient release from
the combined sewer irrespective of climate change.
– Climate change could increase sewer infiltration and
reduce the ratio of wastewater to total inflow at the
WWTP. However, population growth (storyline 2) could
lead to lowered inflow dilution by increasing water
demand and thus wastewater production. The effects
of climate change on dilution can be further mitigated
by stormwater disconnection and installation of water
saving appliances in households (storyline 4). These
have the added benefit of decreasing inflow at the
WWTP and reducing flow variability.
– Together, city growth (storyline 2) and the A2 climate
scenario have the potential to cause the worst drain-
age problems. Climate change is likely to lead to
increased stormwater flows and sewer infiltration thus
reducing the capacity of the system.
– Combined sewer overflow volumes from the south of
the city may double following urbanisation. With
urbanisation and climate change, the volumes could
increase by 450%. The release of NH4 could have a
10-fold increase making this area the most important
overflow location with respect to environmental
impact. Such increases may mean that a new overflow
system could become necessary.
– The use of SUDS and stormwater disconnection from
combined sewers (storylines 3 and 4) could reduce the
number of overflows to a very low, if not negligible,
level for the present and future climate scenarios.
112
– Similarly, storylines 3 and 4 result in very low overflow
volumes and therefore nutrient release to the Öresund
sound and harbour.
Finally, while many researchers have recognised the
need for a range of climate change scenarios in order to
combat uncertainty within GCMs and regional climate mod-
els, the equally important notion of change scenarios or sto-
rylines for other environmental changes has hitherto been
less well represented in impact assessments. A failure to ac-
count for such changes implies a society that is unable to re-
spond to global change whether it be environmental,
political or economic and which is devoid of technical inno-
vation. The worldwide trend towards SUDS for instance, not
only improves the urban environment through blue-green
space creation, it also offers some future protection in
the face of both continued urbanisation and climate change
and should be recognised as a valuable adaptation to
change. By presenting a broad range of possible outcomes
for future drainage problems in Helsingborg, each of which
is plausible given current trends in city development, this
and the accompanying paper on suburban stormwater drain-
age have demonstrated the need for urbanisation storylines
within climate change impact assessments and provided an
example of storyline development and use for urban drain-
age systems.
Acknowledgements
This work was jointly funded by the Technical Office at Hel-
singborg Municipality and FORMAS (Swedish Research Coun-
cil for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial
Planning). Dr. Semadeni-Davies would like to acknowledge
the support of her colleagues at the Department of Water
Resources Engineering, Lund University, during her years
as a researcher there.
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