CASE STUDY # 5: R. C.

Coleman

PROJECT NETWORK

ACTIVITY SCHEDULE

Expected Project Completion Time for the Warehouse Expansion Project

Critical Path : B-C-E-F-H-J-K (43 weeks)

 MANAGERIAL REPORT

1. R. C. Coleman’s top management established a required 40-week completion time

for the project. Can this completion time be achieved? Include probability
information in your discussion. What recommendations do you have if the 40-week
completion time is required?

The Critical Path: B – C – E – F – H – J – K

The Expected Project Completion Time: 43 weeks
The Variance of the Critical Path (σ²): 2.778 + 0.444 + 1 + 0.444 + 0.444 + 0.111 + 0.444 = 5.67
Standard Deviation (σ): = 2.38

At 40 ≤ T ≤ 43

z = (40 -43)/2.38 = -1.26

P (40 ≤ T ≤ 43) = 0.3962

P ( T ≤ 40) = 0.5000 – 0.3962 = 0.1038 or 10.38%

➔ With the given calculations, we can conclude that there is about a 10.38% chance that
the project can be completed in 40 weeks or less which means that the 40-week
completion time cannot be achieved. It is recommended for Coleman to consider
crashing project activities, even if it’s a low chance.

2. Suppose that management requests that activity times be shortened to provide an

80% chance of meeting the 40-week completion time. If the variance in the project
completion time is the same as you found in part (1), how much should the
expected project completion time be shortened to achieve the goal of an 80%
chance of completion within 40 weeks?

The Critical Path: B – C – E – F – H – J – K

The Expected Project Completion Time: 43 weeks
The Variance of the Critical Path (σ²) = 5.67
Standard Deviation (σ): = 2.38

The expected duration of time to finish the given task is 38 weeks.

 3. Using the expected activity times as the normal times and the following crashing
information, determine the activity crashing decisions and revised activity
schedule for the warehouse expansion project:

Crash Time and Cost Information:

Objective Function:
Min. 450yA + 400yB + 600yC + 300yD + 1000yE + 550yF + 750yG + 700yH + 800yI + 400yJ +
500yK

s.t.
 Activity Crashing decision:
The additional cost for a project goal of 38weeks is $2250

Revised Activity Schedule:

The additional cost for a project goal of 40 weeks is $1200

Paths:

B – C – E – F – H – J – K = 43 A – C – G – H – J – K = 32

A – C – D – I – K = 33 B – C – D – I – K = 36

A – C – D – H – J – K = 36 B – C – D – H – J – K = 39

A – C – E – F – I – K = 37 B – C – E – F – I – K = 40

A – C – E – F – H – J – K = 40 B – C – G – H – J – K = 35

APPENDICES

1. Activities' Expected Time:

 ❖ A=6
❖ B = (8 x 4 + 6 + 16) / 6 = 9
❖ C = (4 x 4 + 2 + 6) / 6 = 4
❖ D = (10 x 4 + 8 + 24) / 6 = 12
❖ E = (10 x 4 + 7 + 13) / 6 = 10
❖ F = (6 x 4 + 4 + 8) / 6 = 6
❖ G = (6 x 4 + 4 + 20) / 6 = 8
❖ H = (6 x 4 + 4 + 8) / 6 = 6
❖ I = (6 x 4 + 4 + 14) / 6 = 7
❖ J = (4 x 4 + 3 + 5) / 6 = 4
❖ K = (4 x 4 + 2 + 6) / 6 = 4

Potential Paths:

➔ A-C-D-I-K = 6 + 4+ 12 + 7 + 4 = 33
➔ A-C-D-H-J-K = 6 + 4 + 12 + 6 + 4 +4 = 36
➔ A-C-E-F-I-K = 6 + 4 + 10 +6 + 7 + 4 = 37
➔ A-C-E-F-H-J-K = 6 + 4 + 10 +6 + 6 + 4 + 4 = 40
➔ A-C-G-H-J-K = 6 + 4 + 8 + 6 +4 + 4 = 32
➔ B-C-D-I-K = 9 + 4 + 12 + 7 + 4 = 36
➔ B-C-D-H-J-K = 9 + 4 + 12 + 6 + 4 + 4 = 39
➔ B-C-E-F-I-K = 9 + 4 + 10 + 6 + 7 + 4 = 40
➔ B-C-E-F-H-J-K = 9 + 4 + 10 + 6 + 6 + 4 + 4 = 43
➔ B-C-G-H-J-K =9+4+8+6+4+4 = 35
 The Critical Path: B – C – E – F – H – J – K
The Expected Project Completion Time: 43 weeks
The Variance of the Critical Path (σ²) = 5.67
Standard Deviation (σ): = 2.38

Using the information given in the question, it can be observed that the
probability that the work will be completed within 40 weeks is 80%.

represents the expected project completion time to be shortened to

achieve the goal of an 80% chance of completion within 40 weeks.

= 40 - (0.841621 x 2.38)
= 37.61821257 or 38 days

3.
Activity Time Reduction Crashed per week

A M i=¿ 6 - 4 = 2 1900−1000
k i=
2
= 900 / 2
= 450

B M i=¿ 9 - 7 = 2 1800−1000
k i=
2
= 800 / 2
= 400

C M i=¿ 4 - 2 = 2 2700−1500
k i=
2
= 1200 / 2
 = 600

D M i=¿ 12 - 8 = 4 3200−2000
k i=
4
= 1200 / 4
= 300

E M i=¿ 10 - 7 = 3 8000−5000
k i=
3
= 3000 / 3
= 1000

F M i=¿ 6 - 4 = 2 4100−3000
k i=
2
= 1100 / 2
= 550

G M i=¿ 8 - 5 = 3 10250−8000
k i=
3
= 2250 / 3
= 750

H M i=¿ 6 - 4 = 2 6400−5000
k i=
2
= 1400 / 2
= 700

I M i=¿ 7 - 4 = 3 12400−10000
k i=
3
= 2400 / 3
= 800

J M i=¿ 4 - 3 = 1 4400−4000
k i=
1
= 400

K M i=¿ 4 - 3 = 1 5500−5000
k i=
2
= 500

Activity New Time Crashing Cost

(Weeks) (Weeks)

A 6 0

B 7 2 800
C 4 0

D 12 0

E 10 0

F 5 1 550

G 8 0

H 6 0

I 7 0

J 3 1 400

K 3 1 500

· Crash B x 2 weeks x 400 = 800

7 – 4 – 10 – 6 – 6 – 4 – 4 = 41

· Crash J x 1 week x 400 = 400

7 – 4 – 10 – 6 – 6 – 3 – 4 = 40

· Crash K x 1 week x 500 = 500

7 – 4 – 10 – 6 – 6 – 3 – 3 = 39

· Crash F x 1 week x 550 = 550

7 – 4 – 10 – 5 – 6 – 3 – 3 = 38