Demographic

Analysis
M ODUL E 2 . 1
P LAN 2 1 4 – P L A N NING AN ALYSIS AN D T ECHN IQUES
C. DI A Z
References
Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB). CLUP GUIDEBOOK - A
Guide to Comprehensive Land Use Plan Preparation, Volume 2 : Sectoral
Analysis and Tools for Situational Analysis. Ver 2.3, 2014
Oppenheim, Norbert. Applied Models in Urban and Regional Analysis.
New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc., 1980
Demography and
planning
Demography
• “description of the people”

• Scientific study of the human

population primarily with respect
to size, structure and
development
(Multi-Lingual Demographic,
United Nations)

• Concerned with the current size

and characteristics of human
population, how they were
attained and how they are
changing
Image Source: https://www.uppi.upd.edu.ph
Population
• Total number of individuals in a territory at a specified time

• Covers both nationals and aliens; native- and foreign-born persons,

internees, refugees and other groups physically present within the
borders of a country at a specified time
• During a period of consideration, changes to population are usually
explained by the number of births (increase), number of deaths
(decrease) and the movement of people into or out of the study area
(increase or decrease).
Demographic Profile
Understanding the characteristics of different “segments” of the entire
population helps make planning more efficient and effective.
Population projects serve as basis for estimating future needs and
potentials.

https://www.shutterstock.com/
Population Composition
• Includes the characteristics of the
population in terms of age groupings
and sex ration
• Provides basis for social and economic
planning considerations
• Economic dependency ratios,
participation measures in labor force,
enrolment participation ratios are also
derived from the population
composition data and characteristics

Source: https://psa.gov.ph/content/age-and-sex-
structure-philippine-population-facts-2010-census
Population Distribution
Refers to the geographic pattern of the
location of people
Important in determining centers of
population, hierarchy of settlements and
growth points in the city or municipality
Urbanization trends and density levels are
derived from population distribution
patterns

Source: https://psa.gov.ph/content/philippine-
population-density-based-2015-census-population
Population and Sustainable
Development Framework

Source:
Figure DE–1. Gender-
Responsive Population and
Sustainable Development
Framework,

HLURB CLUP GUIDEBOOK -

A Guide to Comprehensive
Land Use Plan Preparation
2014, Volume 2 : Sectoral
Analysis and Tools for
Situational Analysis. Ver 2.3
Population Projections
•Population projections are the basic information for social sector
planning – not just the total, but compositional information as well,
such as breakdown by age, sex, etc.
•Population projection concerned with size and composition within a
region:
– growth models (tends to be aggregate)
– component methods (which give the composition detail)
Social Sector
Social sector refers to:
◦ health
◦ education
◦ housing
◦ other aspects related to welfare of individuals and households

Social services may be age specific, gender specific, or even income

specific
Growth Methods
Growth Models
Growth Models – generation of a projection of the total
◦ Project total population
◦ Need at least 2 data points (2 points make a line)
◦ Need at least 2 points to establish rate of population change
◦ Simplistic way if using only 2 points
◦ Usually acceptable for short projection periods (approx. 5 years)
1) Linear Growth Model (Average Annual Growth)

• Minimum initial data required: P0 – Population at a base year; Pt

– Population at some time t years after

 Pt  P0 
Pt  n  Pt  Yt  n  Yt    
 Yt  Y0 
– a linear model using average growth rate per year
– easy to use and explain
Population
– may not capture the causes
or underlying mechanisms Pt+n
Pt
P0

0 t t+n Year
Ex.
Given, Philippine Population in 1990 and 1995, what is the
projected population in 2000?
P1990 = 60.7 million and P1995 = 68.6 million
P2000 = ?
Substituting values:
 Pt  P0 
 Pt  Yt  n  Yt   
𝑃1995 −𝑃1990
Pt  n  𝑃2000 =𝑃1995 + 2000 − 1995 1995−1990
 Yt  Y0 
68.6−60.7
𝑃2000 =68.6 + 2000 − 1995
1995−1990

A population of 76.5 million for year 2000 is projected using this

model.
Is that a good estimate?
 2) Exponential Growth Model – geometric or compounded growth

Pt 1  Pt  1  r  : over a one year period

between year t and year t+1
– projections are reflected at the end of each term (eg. year)
– size of term may be modified to suit the projection needs, daily, monthly or
yearly; but rate must be expressed accordingly
– allows solving for growth rate if given populations at the ends of the duration
an estimate is being prepared for

 1  r 
Pt  n
Pt  n  Pt  1  r 
n n

Pt
1 1
 Pt n  n
 Pt  n  n
   1  r  r    1
 Pt   Pt 
Example. Philippine Population
P1990 = 60.7 M and P1995 = 68.6 M then what is P2000 ?

1
 Pt  n  n 1
𝑃1995 5
First solving for r : r    1 𝑟=
𝑃1990
−1
 Pt 
1
68.6 5
𝑟= − 1= 0.02477
60.7
we get r equal to 2.477% per year, then

Pt  n  Pt  1  r 
𝑃2000 = 𝑃1995 ∙ 1 + 0.02477 5
n

𝑃2000 = 68.6 ∙ 1.1301

calculating, we get P2000 =77.525 million

as projected using the geometric method
3) Modified exponential and logistic models

– Linear growth and exponential growth methods allow for infinitely large
populations, which may not be realistic or reasonable. Several methods that
might be applied (if a maximum population can be identified) are as follows:

3.1 Modified exponential growth model

𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑃𝑡+𝑛
The ratio is constant for all n
𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑃𝑡
Pmax - Pt+n
Pmax
Pmax - Pt

Pt+n
Pt

Year
 3.2 Logistic model
◦ The basic assumption of the exponential model is that the rate of
growth, relative to population level, is constant. If we assume the
rate of growth to be a linearly decreasing function of the
population level (i.e of the form a-bPt) then we get:
1
𝑃𝑡 =
1 𝑏 −𝑎𝑡 𝑏
− 𝑒 +
𝑃0 𝑎 𝑎
Pmax

Practical values of a and b can

Pt be derived using a plot of the
values of the ratio:
𝑃𝑛+1 − 𝑃𝑛
P0 𝑃𝑛
t Year
Individual Assignment No. 1
1. Given the 1930 and 1975 data, estimate the population in 1993:
◦ Using linear growth rate?
◦ Using exponential growth rate? Year 1930 1975
World Population 2 billion 4 billion

◦ Round to the fourth decimal in intermediate calculations; round to the second decimal place
for the final answer.

◦ In 1993, World Population was 5.5 billion. Do your estimates tally with the actual outcome?
What are the possible explanations for why or why not?

2. Using 1975 and 1993 data, and applying the methods, in what year
will population reach 8 billion?
• Growth rate: what drives it?
– Calculated growth rate depends on the available data (questions of data
quality, period of coverage, etc.)
– Consider the following case:

Barangay
Population

70 75 80 85 90 Year

Depending on the period covered by the data, there will be different

indications of the trend in the change of population.

Thus, it is clear that growth rate methods may be good for short periods,
but may be weak for long periods where the underlying mechanisms
(fertility, mortality, migration) are not described.
• Suppose we would like to prepare a projection for 2030, we can use scenario
building, wherein alternative growth assumptions are laid out as scenarios.

• Growth Assumptions / Scenarios

– Declining growth (graphical estimates of “growth” extended from past period
growth rate, or curve-fitting methods like regression used to establish pattern over
time)
– Constant growth pegged at the last period growth
– Average growth (can be used if fluctuation pattern, but do not use if smoothly
declining)
– Use of alternative method (when data is limited; such as the use of the pattern of
a similar area with available data)
– Putting constraints (application of a maximum or limit to the population; good for
saturated cases, or cases where growth has been constrained; perhaps not yet
applicable to Philippines)
Use of regression
When many data points are available, this becomes possible
Otherwise, when only two points are available, graphical methods
Interpolation – when a middle value is derived,
Extrapolation – when a value beyond the data points is estimated
◦ Forecasting
◦ Backcasting: may be done to calibrate / check the model for evaluation of its
predictive ability

forecasting

backcasting
•General form: Pt  a  bX t
or more precisely,
Pt t n  a  bX t t n
– which means that the change in population between years t and t+n
are explained by the change in independent variable X between those
years

•for multiple regression:

Pt  a  b1 X1t  b2 X 2t  ...  bm X mt
Pt  a   bi X it
i

– theoretical inadequacy may exist; poor causal structure when causal

factors linked in several different ways to dependent variable – careful
selection of appropriate factors
Comparative Method
Comparative method assumes that the future growth of the study area will be similar to
that of another area called the control or pattern area.
It is assumed that the study area has a “lag” which means that the study area is expected
to follow as similar growth “pattern” as the pattern area.
Population
Pattern area Study area

Lag

Year
Choosing appropriate pattern area is a fundamental problem of this method, which is
more of an examination of patterns - and like trending does not really explain underlying
causes
1) Area ratio method – study area compared to a pattern area of which it is a
part (ex. Province compared to the Country)
Ps (t )  R  PP (t )

• study and pattern area experiencing similar economic, social and political forces influencing
population change; hypothesized relationship between both areas where:

– Ps (t ) = population of the study area

– R = ratio of study area to pattern area
– PP (t ) = population of pattern area

Year Population of Ratio of study Population in study

Pattern Area area to pattern area (millions
(millions) area
1990 1 0.12 0.120
2000 1.2 0.12 0.144
2010 1.5 (forecast 0.12 0.270
» but of course the ratio may not be a constant