Fish Population Dynamics, Stock Assessment

and Ecosystems
(AFS 81207) – Lecture 1
Populations and population demographics
• Any fish species population is characterized by the following properties:
o Defined population size
o Population growth rate
o immigration and emigration rates
o age and size structure of individual fish
o specific geographic distribution.
• How these properties change with time affect the dynamic behavior of a
population.
• Population models attempt to describe and explain aspects of this
dynamic behavior
 Fish population models
• In this lecture, the following fish population models are discussed:
o Exponential population growth model
o Logistic population growth model
 The exponential fish population growth
• The rate at which the size of a population changes with time is described by the following
equation:

dN/dt = (b-d)N ≡ rN Equation 1.1

where:
N = population size
t = time
b = birth rate
d = death rate
r = intrinsic rate of increase (b-d), or instantaneous rate of population growth or percapita rate of
population growth
dN/dt = rate of change of the population
• Assumptions of the exponential growth model
o Birth and death rates are constant
o The intrinsic rate of population increase is constant and independent of the population size
 The exponential fish population growth - contd

• An integration of equation 1.1 leads to the following equation:

Nt = N0e(b-d)t ≡ N0ert ≡ Nt-1er Equation 1.2

Where:
Nt = expected population size at time t
N0 = Initial population size
e = constant
b = birth rate
d = death rate
• Equation 1.2 is called the exponential growth.
o It implies a continuously increasing population (density independent) which may not always be the case.
o In real life depending on balances between births and deaths the population can
 Be reduced to extinction,
 stay stable
 grow rapidly.
The exponential fish population growth - contd

• Population size (Nt) as a function of time (t)

 The exponential fish population growth - contd
• The exponential growth model can be linearized using a natural logarithm transformation as follows:

Ln(N0ert) = Ln(N0) + Ln(ert) = Ln(N0)+ rt Equation 1.3

• The equation for the linearized graph is:
• Ln(N) = Ln(N₀) + rt
• This equation has the same form as the equation for a straight line (y = mx + b), where:
• Ln(N) corresponds to the y-axis.
• t corresponds to the x-axis.
• r is the slope (gradient) of the line.
• Ln(N₀) is the y-intercept.

• The slope of Equation 1.3 is an estimate of the population growth rate, r, and the intercept an
estimate of Ln(N0)
• At equilibrium (dN/dt =0).
o i.e. either N=0 (population extinct, and no immigration) or b = d and both are positiveis
Growth rate (King 2007)
 The logistic fish population growth model
• Derived from the exponential model, after some algebraic manipulation and re-parameterization,
e.g.
o Allowing r value to change in response to population size,
o Introducing the equilibrium population size K
• The derived logistic model was:

dN/dt = rN (1-N/K) Equation 1.4

o Where
 dN/dt = rate at which the size of a population changes with time
 r = intrinsic rate of increase
 K = equilibrium population size (also called carrying capacity)
• The reasoning behind the model is that as the population size increases, birth rate decreases due to
the following density dependent factors:
o increased competition
o reduced growth which would affect fecundity
o reduce energy allocated to reproduction
o increase in the death rates (possibly due to starvation, cannibalism, or predation).
• The parameters r and K are always strongly correlated.
• The maximum rate of population change occurs when N = K/2.
 The Logistic population growth model -
contd

Equilibrium rate of change of population size versus population size i.e. production versus stock size curve
 The Logistic population growth model -
contd
• Integrating equation 1.4 and reparametrization of the constants leads to the
continuous solution to the logistic equation.

Equation 1.5

• Where
Nt = expected population size
N0 = starting population size
t = any time after some starting time
γ =(K – N0)/ N0
K = equilibrium population size,
r = rate of population change
• Equation 1.5 of Nt against t generates an S-shaped curve
 The Logistic population growth model - contd

Population trajectory when growing according to the logistic equation

 Discrete logistic model
• The assumption of no significant time delays for differential equations
(Equations 1.4 and 1.5) is unrealistic,
• Hence, equation 1.5 can be converted to discrete time intervals as:

Nt+1 = Nt + rNt (1-Nt/K) Equation 1.6

• The discrete logistic model (Equation 1.6) is more appropriate for populations
in seasonal environments with non overlapping cohorts.
• Extra mortality source, e.g. fishing can be included to equation 1.6 as:

Nt+1 = Nt + rNt (1-Nt/K) - Ct Equation 1.7

where Ct is the catch at time t.

 Discrete logistic model - contd
• Stability properties of discrete logistic model
o Being density dependent, it is more capable of compensating for increases in
mortality than exponential model
o An equilibrium exists where Nt+1 = Nt (see diagonal line on phase diagram)
o Has a non linear relationship between successive generations.
o Assumes that the productivity, beyond replacement at any time, could be
harvested (cropped) without damaging the population.
o The maximum difference (which occurs at K/2) between the equilibrium and
productivity beyond replacement is the MSY.
The stock biomass needed to generate this productivity level is BMSY.
Discrete logistic model - contd

Phase diagram of the discrete logistic growth

Dynamic behaviour of the discrete logistic model
Dynamic behaviour of the discrete logistic model
• Equation 1.6 (or 1.7) has a
wide variety of different
behaviours depending upon
the value of the r parameter
(at constant K value)
• Most of such behaviours relate
to imbalances in the density-
dependent compensation for
changes in population size.
Tutorial 1
(based on theoretical information)
Question 1
The initial number for each of the three populations of fish species (X, Y
and Z) in a small lake was 10,000. Assuming that the birth rate for all
the three populations was 0.11;
a) Calculate and plot the exponential growth curves of the three fish
populations if their death rates were 0.05; 0.11 and 0.3 respectively.
b) How long could it take for the fish population with a death rate of 0.05 to
double its number?
c) How long could it take for the fish population with a death rate of 0.3 to
become extinct?
Tutorial 1 - contd
Question 2
You are provided with the following information about one Tilapia population: Initial population
size (Nt) is 500; the maximum equilibrium size (K) is 10000; the rate of population increase (r) is
0.6 and constant catch value (C t) is 100 Tilapia fish.
a) Using the Microsoft Excel, calculate the logistic population growth model (N t+1 = Nt + rNt (1-
Nt/K) - Ct) for the Tilapia population between zero and twenty five years and plot the graph
of population size against time.
b) Plot a graph of Nt+1 against Nt and in the graph include an equilibrium line (i.e. line where
Nt+1 = Nt.).
c) Using the graphs plotted determine:
i. The time at which the Tilapia population will reach the maximum equilibrium size.
ii. The population size associated with maximum productivity for the Tilapia fishery.
d) Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of application of the logistic population growth in
assessment of fish population dynamics and stock assessment.