DISTRIBUTION OF INSECTS, TAYLOR’S

POWER LAW, ISLAND BIOGEOGRAPHY,

POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION
PROJECTION, PREDATOR-PREY MODELS
AND CROP MODELLING

Presented by:
Sandeep Kumar Sathua
 Insect Distribution and Diversity
 Insects are invertebrate animals of the Class Insecta, the
largest and (on land) most widely distributed taxon (taxonomic
unit) within the Phylum Arthropoda
 Insects occupy a critical role in both ecology and human
society. Being widespread and numerous, they are a vital link
in food webs. They are also invaluable as pollinators and in
the recycling of nutrients.
 The beetles are the most numerous insects, with over
400,000 species identified. There also are approximately
170,000 butterfly and moth, 120,000 fly, 82,000 true bug
(Hemiptera), 110,000 bee and ant, 5,000 dragonfly, 2,000
praying mantis, and 20,000 grasshopper species. However,
thousands of new insect species are identified each year, and
estimates of the total number of current species.
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION ZONES
 Taylor’s Power Law
 Taylor's law (also known as Taylor’s power law) is an
empirical law in ecology that relates the variance of the
number of individuals of a species per unit area of habitat
to the corresponding mean by a power law relationship.
 It is named after the ecologist Lionel Roy Taylor who first
proposed it in 1961, (1924–2007)

 This law was originally defined for ecological systems,

specifically to assess the spatial clustering of organisms.
For a population count Y with mean µ and variance
var(Y), Taylor’s law is written,
var (Y) = aµb

where a and b are both positive constants

BIOGEOGRAPHY
It is the branch of biology that deals with the geographical
distribution of plants and animals.

Island Biogeography
• Islands, as natural experiments, have not been protected from
damage and extinction through human activities. Since islands
are isolated, and in many cases the species found on them are
endemic, extinction has been particularly common on islands.
• One of the reasons islands are important in the more general
structure of ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology is
that islands, as at least relatively isolated areas, are excellent
natural laboratories to study the relationship between area and
species diversity.
TYPES OF ISLANDS: NEO-ENDEMICS AND PALEO-
ENDEMICS
Neo-endemics typically form on isolated islands that have
been created de novo, and have abundant empty ecological
space into which those few colonists can diversify. Ex.
Hawaii, other volcanic archipelagoes, including the
Marquesas, Societies, and Galapagos in the Pacific and the
Canaries in the Atlantic, have provided ideal conditions for
the formation of neo-endemics.

Over evolutionary time, the species on these islands may

change through a process termed relic-tualization, with the
formation of paleo-endemics, usually without adaptive
radiation (This phenomenon, where single colonists, isolated
genetically from their source population, give rise to a series of species
that have diversified ecologically, is termed adaptive radiation, and
usually occurs beyond the so-called ‘radiation zone’)
Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography (ETIB)
MacArthur and Wilson formalized this idea in the 1960s with the
development of the ETIB. This theory relates species and area by
the formula,
S = C Az
where:
S is the number of species present,
C is a constant measuring overall species richness
A is the area of the island, and the exponent z has been shown to be
fairly constant for most island situations (0.18 and 0.35)
The premise of the theory is that the rate of immigration decreases
with increasing distance from the source, whereas the rate of
extinction decreases with increasing island size. The balance of
these processes results in an equilibrium number of species on
any one island.
 POPULATION DYNAMICS & LIFE TABLE
OF INSECTS
The population dynamics of pest insects is a subject
of interest to farmers, agricultural economists, ecologists,
and those concerned with animal welfare.
LIFE TABLE:
• A statistical model for measuring the mortality (or any
other type of “exit”) experiences of a population,
controlling for age distributions. In other words, it
represents the survivorship of insects from a certain
population.

• It is described as ‘Biometer’ of population by Willium Farr

 LIFE TABLE
A statistical model for measuring the mortality (or
any other type of “exit”) experiences of a
population, controlling for age distributions.

Types of Life Tables

• Current/Period vs. Generation/Cohort
• Complete vs. Abridged
• Single vs. Multiple Decrement
• Increment/Decrement Tables
Age specific vs. Time specific

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 LESLIE MATRIX
• The Leslie matrix is a discrete, age-structured model of
population growth that is very popular in population
ecology.

• It was invented by and named after Patrick H. Leslie.

• The Leslie matrix is used in ecology to model the changes

in a population of organisms over a period of time. In a
Leslie model, the population is divided into groups based
on age classes.

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To build a matrix, some information must be known from the
population:
the count of individuals (n) of each age class x

nx, the number of individual (n) of each age class x.

sx, the fraction of individuals that survives from age class x to
age class x+1.
fx, fecundity, the per capita average number of female
offspring reaching n0, born from mother of the age class x.
More precisely it can be viewed as the number of offspring
produced at the next age class mx + 1 weighted by the
probability of reaching the next age class. Therefore, fx =
sxmx + 1.

Where ω is the maximum age attainable in our population.

This can be written as;
or
The observations that n0 at time t+1 is simply the sum of all
offspring born from the previous time step and that the
organisms surviving to time t+1 are the organisms at time t
surviving at probability sx , we get nx + 1 = sxnx. This then
motivates the following matrix representation:

Leslie Matrix:

i.e. ( s+1) * 1 = (s+1) (s+1) * (s+1) * 1

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF LESLIE MATRICES:

Advantages:
1.Can conduct sensitivity analysis to see how changing certain
age-specific vital rates affects population size and age structure.
2.Can incorporate density-dependence, i.e., can dampen values in
the matrix to account for density-dependent factors limiting
population growth.
3.Can derive useful mathematical properties from the matrix
formulas, including stable-age distribution and finite rate of
population change (i.e., lambda).

Disadvantages:
4.Requires a large amount of data (i.e., age-specific data on
survival, fecundity, and population structure).
5.In practice, the estimation of Fx is difficult at best.

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EXAMPLE-1
EXAMPLE-2
 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
 Population projections are estimates of the population for
future dates. They are typically based on an estimated
population consistent with the most recent decennial
census and are produced using the cohort-component
method.

 A population projection is an extrapolation of historical

data into the future

 A set of calculations, which show the future course of

fertility, mortality and migration depending on the
assumptions used
 Projection – Linear growth
Assumption:
 Implies that there is a constant amount of increase per unit of
time i.e. population with constant growth rate
 Change is only experienced at the end of unit time

 A straight line is used to project population growth

 It is expressed as:
Pt = P0 + bt
where P0 = initial population
Pt = population t years later
b = annual amount of population change

24
 Projection – Geometric growth
• The growth assumes a geometric series
• It is expressed as
Pt = P0 (1+ r)t

where, P0 = initial population

Pt = population t years later

r = annual rate of growth

 Projection – Exponential growth
 This is the equivalent to the growth of an investment
with compound interest
 Growth is constant, but compounding is continuous
 It is expressed as

Pt = P0(ert)

where, P0 = initial population

Pt = population t years later

r = annual rate of growth
e = base of the natural logarithm
 PREDATOR-PREY MODELS
 Predator is an organism that eats another organism. The
prey is the organism which the predator eats.

 The interaction among the predator and prey population

can be by means of various model called predator- prey
model.

Predator-Prey models:
– Lotka-Volterra Model
– Nicholson- Bailey Model
– Competition models
– Mutualism or Symbiois Model
– General Models
 LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL

► Alfred J. Lotka ► Vito Volterra

(1880-1949) (1860-1940)
 American mathematical  famous Italian
biologist mathematician
 primary example: plant  Retired from pure
population/herbivorous mathematics in 1920
animal dependent on that  Son-in-law: D’Ancona
plant for food
The Lotka-Volterra Model: Assumptions

1. Prey grow exponentially in the absence of

predators.
2. Predation is directly proportional to the product of
prey and predator abundances (random
encounters).
3. Predator populations grow based on the number of
prey. Death rates are independent of prey
abundance.
4. The model Describes interactions between two
species in an ecosystem: a predator and a prey
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 Consists of two differential equations-

1. dF/dt = F(a-bS) -Prey Equation

2. dS/dt = S(cF-d) -Predator Equation
Example- F: Initial fish population
S: Initial shark population
a: reproduction rate of the small fish
b: shark consumption rate
c: small fish nutritional value
d: death rate of the sharks
dt: time step increment
Prey Equation: The prey population will grow exponentially
in the absence of predator.
Predator Equation: Predator population can increase only
proportionally to the number of prey and the predators
simultaneously faced with decay due to constant death rate
NICHOLSON–BAILEY MODEL
• The was developed in the 1930s to describe the
population dynamics of a coupled host-parasitoid system.
• It is named after Alexander John Nicholson and Victor
Albert Bailey.
• The model assumes that – a) parasitoids search for hosts
at random, and b) both parasitoids and hosts are
assumed to be distributed in a non-contiguous ("clumped")
fashion in the environment.
• The model is a two-dimensional system of difference
equations given by-

H t + 1 = R × H t (e - aP t)
P t + 1 = C × H t (1 - e - aP t)
• Here H t and P t represent the densities of the host and
parasitoid population at year t. R is the number of
offspring of an un-parasitized host surviving to the next
year.
• Assuming random encounter between hosts and
parasitoids the probability that a host escapes
parasitism can be approximated by e - a P t , where a is
a proportionality constant. Similarly, the probability to
become infected is then given by ( 1 - e - a P t ) .
• Finally, the parameter C describes the number of
parasitoids that hatch from an infected host.
 The equilibrium of the Nicholson-Bailey model is
obtained by setting H t + 1 = H t and P t + 1 = P t and
is given by
P = log ( R ) a and H = R - 1 log ( R ) a c
• However, this equilibrium is unstable.
 CROP MODELLING

A Crop Model is a model that helps to estimate crop yield as a

function of weather conditions, soil conditions, and choice of crop
management practices.
Why model ?
• Use for manipulations and experiments that are impractical, too
expensive, too lengthy or impossible (in real-world social and
economic systems)
• Identify “best management” strategies (through optimization)
• Study the long-term effects of options (predictions, projections)
• Allow the researcher to control environmental and experimental
conditions
• Allow hypothetical and exploratory situations to be investigated
Models in Agriculture
 Agricultural models are mathematical equations that
represent the reactions that occur within the plant and the
interactions between the plant and its environment.
 Models are built for specific purposes and different models
are built for different subsystems to simulate a particular
crop or a particular aspect of the production system.

Various models used for crop modeling:

I. Empirical model
II. Mechanistic model
III. Static and dynamic model
IV. Simulation model
V. Deterministic and stochastic models etc.
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Strength
The strengths of models in general include the abilities to:
•Provide a framework for understanding a system and for investigating how
manipulating it affects its various components
•Evaluate long-term impact of particular interventions
•Provide an analysis of the risks involved in adopting a particular strategy
•Provide answers quicker and more cheaply than is possible with traditional
experimentation

Model calibration
Calibration is adjustment of the system parameters so that simulation results
reach a predetermined level, usually that of an observation. In many instances,
even if a model is based on observed data, simulated values do not exactly
comply with the observed data and minor adjustments have to be made for some
parameters .

Model validation
The model validation stage involves the confirmation that the calibrated model
closely represents the real situation. The procedure consists of a comparison of
simulated output and observed data that have not been previously used in the
calibration stage.
Some crop models reported in recent literature
Software Details
SLAM II Forage harvesting operation
SPICE Whole plant water flow
REALSOY Soyabean
MODVEX Model development and validation system
IRRIGATE Irrigation scheduling model
COTTAM Cotton
APSIM Modelling framework for a range of crops
GWM General weed model in row crops
MPTGro Acacia spp.and Leucaena Spp.
GOSSYM-COMAX Cotton
CropSyst Wheat & other crops
SIMCOM Crop (CERES crop modules) & economics
LUPINMOD Lupin
TUBERPRO Potato & disease
SIMPOTATO Potato
WOFOST Wheat & maize, Water and nutrient
WAVE Water and agrochemicals
SUCROS Crop models
ORYZA1 Rice, water
[ Kumar and
SIMRIW Rice, water Chaturevdi (2009),
SIMCOY Corn Department of
CERES-Rice Rice, water Agronomy, GBPUAT ]
MODEL USES :
• As research tools- Research understanding, Integration of knowledge
across disciplines, Improvement in experiment documentation and data
organization, Yield analysis, Genetic improvement
• As crop system management tools- Cultural and input management,
Risks assessment and investment support, Site-specific farming

LIMITATIONS:
• Agricultural systems are characterized by high levels of interaction
between the components that are not completely understood.
• The need for model verification arises because all processes are not
fully understood
• Model performance is limited to the quality of input data
• Most simulation models require that meteorological data be reliable and
complete. Meteorological sites may not fully represent the weather at a
chosen location.
• Using a model for an objective for which it had not been designed or
using a model in a situation that is drastically different from that for
which it had been developed would lead to model failure.
 REFERENCES
 Thornton, I.W.B., R.A. Zan, and S. Van Balen (1993)
Colonization of Rakata (Krakatau Is.) by non-migrant land
birds from 1883 to 1992 and implications for the value of
island equilibrium theory. Journal of Biogeography, 20:441-
452.
 Google Scholar
 Wikipedia
 Slideshare
 Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences so that we can get
the review done
 Predator-Prey Models ppt; Sarah Jenson & Stacy Randolph
 Ben Jarabi, Session 2 - Background & first steps
:POPULATION PROJECTIONS, Population Studies.
Research Institute, University of Nairobi
THANK YOU ALL

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