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Background
Thomas Malthus
The first significant contribution to the theory of population ecology was that of
Thomas Malthus, an English clergyman, who in 1798 published his Essay on the
Principle of Population. Malthus introduced the concept that at some point in time
an expanding population must exceed supply of prerequisite natural resources, i.e.,
population increases exponentially resulting in increasing competition for means of
subsistence, food, shelter, etc. This concept has been termed the "Struggle for
Existence".
Charles Darwin
Harry Smith, pioneering biological control worker with the University of California
(1935), proposed the equivalent and now accepted terms density-dependent and
density-independent. Density-dependent mortality factors are those that are
facultative in effect, density-independent mortality factors are those that are
catastrophic in effect.
Royal N. Chapman, Univ. Minnesota, in the 1930s proposed the concept of a balance
between biotic potential and environmental resistance. Chapman`s model was a
mathematical representation of the Malthusian concept, illustrated here by the
logistic growth of a laboratory population of yeast cells. Population growth
trajectory (N1 = N0 + (Rm -sN0)N0 ); Rm = maximum rate of increase, here = 1, s =
interaction coefficient, here = 0,0001, and carrying capacity of environment = 1000.
Fig. 2B. Population growth
(N1 = N0 + RN0), where N1 = 10 and R=0.5 (blue), R=0 (black), and R=-0.5 (red).
1 billion
1804
2 billion
1927
3 billion
1960
4 billion
1974
5 billion
1987
6 billion
1999
7 billion
2013
8 billion
2028
9 billion
2054
(range of estimates: 10.4-17
2100
billion)
Exercise: Compute annual population growth rates for each of the time perioids
above:
Equation for population growth model is X=X0ert where the original population is
X0 mathematical constant: natural log (e = 2.718), represents Malthusian
parameter. Population will increase in size to X, over time (t), if rate of increase (r) is
positive. If population not growing, i.e., r = 0.0, then rt = 0.0, and e0.0= l.0, X = X0.
When r has a value greater than 0 population will increase, e.g., rt = 0.693 (e0.693 =
2.0), population will double in time t (X = 2X0). The doubling time of this population
will be t = 0.693/r. If the population is decreasing, r is a negative value. The function
of X = X0ert can be made a straight line by the natural log transformation, i.e., lnX =
lnX0 + rt (the equation for a straight line). Characteristics of this line are: an
intercept at lnX0 and a slope of r. Linear regression analysis can be applied (since
this is a straight line), with the independent variable being time. The linear equation
thus describes the rate of population growth (+) or decline (-). Algebraic
rearrangement of this equation permits one to solve for the rate of population
increase.
In the 1920s, A. J. Lotka (1925) and V. Volterra (1926) devised mathematical models
representing host/prey interaction. This was the first attempt to mathematically
represent a population model as achieving a cyclic balance in mean mean
(characteristic) population density, i.e., to attain a dynamic equilibrium. The Lotka-
Volterra curve assumes that prey destruction is a function not only of natural enemy
numbers, but also of prey density, i.e., related to the chance of encounter.
Populations of prey and predator were predicted to flucuate in a regular manner
(Volterra termed this "the law of periodic cycle"). Lotka-Volterra model is an
oversimplification of reality, as these curves are derived from infinitesimal calculus
when in nature association is seldom continuous over time (life cycles being finite).
Fig 4A (above). Steady-state
population model (N1 = N0 + Rm(1 -sN0 /K)N0, where Rm = 2, K = 1000, and intitial
displacement from equilibrium x = -10.
These arguments became heated in the mid-1950s and early 1960s. Much of the
confusion and controversy regarding mechanisms of population regulation stemmed
from an inadequate data base, but an even more confining limitation was the
essential impracticality of making the extremely complex calculations required to
manipulate such data. Accordingly rapid advances in theoretical ecology, especially
in the area of population ecology, only occurred with the introduction of high speed
computers and the refinement of statistical theory.
Much of early population theory was developed deductively from controlled
laboratory experiments or fragmented field observations. This resulted in a
tendency to oversimplification and the development of models often not reflecting
biological reality.
One of the most useful starting points for a population ecologist is the development
of a life table. A life table is a schedule of mortality for each cohort (age group) of
individuals in the population. The methods were developed originally for actuarial
or demographic studies. Multifactor studies which incorporated the life table
technique were once largely the province of forest entomologists, but are now widely
used in agriculture.
The final test of any population model is its usefulness to predict (generation to
generation) changes in abundance or to explain why changes occur at particular
population densities.
Interactions between species can be very complex even when only 2 species are
considered (through impact on environment of other species). Each species can
affect environment of other positively (+), negatively (-), or have no effect (0). Major
categories include: mutualism (++), commensualism (+0), predator/prey (+-),
competition (- -), and amensalism (rare) (-0).
Insects and plants of two types: 1) good colonizers, e.g., weed species, with high
reproductive potential (capacity), adaptable, invaders, readily dispersed, "r-
strategists"; 2) good competitors, high survival, tend to stable population (K =
equilibrium), exploit stable environments, win out in competition, "K-strategists"
(R. H. MacArthur and E. O. Wilson 1967).
Most crop pests are r-strategists, e.g., aphids and phytophagous insects in general.
Natural enemies, i.e., parasites and predators, are mostly K strategists. This is said
to be one reason for the high failure rate associated with introductions of exotic
natural enemies.
Most crop plants are early succession plants, i.e., they are weedy species and
accordingly they also are r-strategists. The r-selected species are particularly suited
to exploiting the ecological patchiness and instability of the agroecosystem.
Effects of various regulating factors on the population dynamics of the host tend to
differ: predators, harmonic (cyclic), parasitoids, intrusive, pathogens, disruptive,
food, catastrophic (W. J. Turnock and J. A. Muldrew 1971).
Numerical response is the key to the success of entomophagous insects; occurs in the
following ways:
1. Concentration, not different from sigmoid curve of functional response.
2. Immediate numerical response, increased survival
3. Delayed numerical response, increased reproduction.
Fig. 6 A + 6B. Carl B. Huffaker
et al. 1968 graphically presented four postulated types of functional (behavioral)
responses of predators including entomophagous insects to prey density. (A) number
killed, (B) percent killed. After Huffaker et al. 1968.
Nicholson curve: number of attacks determined by searching capacity (i.e., density-
dependent). C. S. Holling (1965) disk curve: characteristic of invertebrate predators.
Sigmoid curve: characteristic of vertebrate predators. Thompson curve: number of
attacks limited by capacity for consumption or production of eggs, but not by
searching capacity or host density.
Interactions between species, especially between predators and prey are of great
theoretical and practical interest to ecologists.
2. Predation increases with increasing host (herbivore) density, then declines as host
populations overwhelm (and escape) their regulating influence. This occurs because
the characteristic pattern is for overall predator response to be sigmoid, based on a)
functional response of the individual predator and b) numerical response of the
population.
The net result of these interacting factors is that changes in the population are
subjected to dramatic changes in cumulative mortality rates. These are illustrated in
the following figures.
Fig. 13 (above). Synoptic model of population growth (after Southwood and Comins
1976, J. Anim. Ecol. 45: 949-965). The synoptic model of Southwood demonstrates
the link between habitat stability (natural ecosystems evolving toward a K-selected
type, agroecosystems representing an r-selected type) and relative favorability of
each for pests and natural control agents. Pests having a relative advantage in r-
selected habitats, while natural enemies tend to dominance in more stable
ecosystems.
Common feature of epidemics (epizootics) is that outward migration (emigration)
occurs advancing in waves. Knowledge of spatial distributions and population
dynamics can be used to manage populations over large areas.
Simulation games have been used to study and test ecological theory. One such
model is the so-called "Game of Life". This is a game invented by a mathematician
to illustrate (mimic) environmental feedback loops, a number of individuals
(checkers) are positioned at random on board. Rules are that any individual
adjacent to one or more neighbors dies of isolation and any adjacent to four or more
individuals dies of overcrowding (two negative feedbacks) and that whenever an
empty square exists adjacent to exactly three individuals, a new individual is born (a
parody of real-life).
The population dynamics of pests occurring over large areas can be investigated by
gridding the area and monitoring population trends, studies of dispersal (migration)
reproduction, competition, weather, environmental conditions, etc.
Pest management is as applied science with no unique principles. Focus of all pest
management programs is to "erode the homeostatic capability" ("homeostasis") of
pest populations i.e., to reduce the equilibrium position of populations (K) spatially
and temporally so that the frequency and duration of fluctuation above economic
thresholds are reduced or eliminated.
Ecology References
Websites
Huffaker, C. B. and R. L. Rabb, editors. 1984. Ecological Entomology. John Wiley &
Sons. 844 pp.
Price, P. W. 1984. Insect Ecology. John Wiley & Sons. 600 pp.
Odum, H. T. 1983. Systems Ecology: an Introduction. John Wiley & Sons. 644 pp.
Levins, R. and M. Wilson. 1980. Ecological theory and pest management. Annual
Review of Entomology 25: 287-308.
Apple, J. L. and R. F. Smith. 1976. Progress, problems, and prospects for integrated
pest management. In: Integrated Pest Management, J. L. Apple and R. F. Smith,
editors, pp. 179-97. Plenum Press.
Huffaker, C. B., F. J. Simmons, and J. E. Laing. 1976. The theoretical and empiracal
basis of biological control. In: Theory and Practice of Biological Control, C. B.
Huffaker and P. S. Messenger, editors, Chapter 3, pp. 41-78. Academic Press.
Sailer, R. I. 1971. Invertebrate predators. In: Toward Integrated Control, pp. 32-44.
USDA Forest Research Paper NE-194.
Harcourt, D. G. 1969. The development and use of life tables in the study of natural
insect populations. Annual Review of Entomology 14: 175-191.
Biosphere: The sum of all living things taken in conjunction with their
environment. In essence, where life occurs, from the upper reaches of the
atmosphere to the top few meters of soil, to the bottoms of the oceans. We
divide the earth into atmosphere (air), lithosphere (earth), hydrosphere
(water), and biosphere (life).
Cell: The fundamental unit of living things. Each cell has some sort of
hereditary material (either DNA or more rarely RNA), energy acquiring
chemicals, structures, etc. Living things, by definition, must have the
metabolic chemicals plus a nucleic acid hereditary information molecule.
Ecology is the study how organisms interact with each other and their
physical environment. These interactions are often quite complex. Human
activity frequently disturbs living systems and affects these interactions.
Ecological predictions are, of a consequence, often more general than we
would like.
1. growth
2. stability
3. decline
Population growth occurs when available resources exceed the number of
individuals able to exploit them. Reproduction is rapid, and death rates are
low, producing a net increase in the population size.
Nearly all populations will tend to grow exponentially as long as there are
resources available. Most populations have the potential to expand at an
exponential rate, since reproduction is generally a multiplicative process.
Two of the most basic factors that affect the rate of population growth are
the birth rate, and the death rate. The intrinsic rate of increase is the birth
rate minus the death rate.
The age within it's individual life cycle at which an organism reproduces
affects the rate of population increase. Life history refers to the age of
sexual maturity, age of death, and other events in that individual's lifetime
that influence reproductive traits. Some organisms grow fast, reproduce
quickly, and have abundant offspring each reproductive cycle. Other
organisms grow slowly, reproduce at a late age, and have few offspring per
cycle. Most organisms are intermediate to these two extremes.
Population curves. a) three hypothetical populations (labelled I, II, and
III); b, c, and d) three real populations. Note that the real curves
approximate one of the three hypotheticals. Images from Purves et al., Life:
The Science of Biology, 4th Edition, by Sinauer Associates (www.sinauer.com) and
WH Freeman (www.whfreeman.com), used with permission.
Limits on population growth can include food supply, space, and complex
interactions with other physical and biological factors (including other
species). After an initial period of exponential growth, a population will
encounter a limiting factor that will cause the exponential growth to stop.
The population enters a slower growth phase and may eventually stabilize
at a fairly constant population size within some range of fluctuation. This
model fits the logistic growth model. The carrying capacity is the point
where population size levels off.
Relationship between carrying capacity (K) and the population density
over time. Image from Purves et al., Life: The Science of Biology, 4th Edition, by
Sinauer Associates (www.sinauer.com) and WH Freeman (www.whfreeman.com),
used with permission.
Natural populations are not governed by a single control, but rather have
the combined effects of many controls simultaneously playing roles in
determining population size. If two beetle species interact in the
laboratory, one result occurs; if a third species is introduced, a different
outcome develops. The latter situation is more like nature, and changes in
one population may have a domino effect on others.
Human Impact
Removal of Predators
Humans can remove or alter the constraints on population sizes, with both
good and bad consequences. On the negative side, about 17% of the 1500
introduced insect species require the use of pesticides to control them. For
example, African killer bees are expanding their population and migrating
from northward from South America. These killer bees are much more
agressive than the natives, and destroy native honeybee populations.
The death of one species or population can cause the decline or elimination
of others, a process known as secondary extinction. Destruction of bamboo
forests in China, the food for the giant panda, may cause the extinction of
the panda. The extinction of the dodo bird has caused the Calviera tree to
become unable to reproduce since the dodo ate the fruit and processed the
seeds of that tree.
Giant pandas eat an estimated 10,000 pounds of bamboo per panda per
year. Image of a giant panda eating bamboo from
http://www.bonus.com/contour/Save_our_Earth/http@@/library.thinkquest.org/298
8/e-animals.htm#Giant Panda.
The minimum viable population (MVP) is the smallest population size that
can avoid extinction by the two reasons listed above. If no severe
environmental fluxes develop for a long enough time, a small population
will recover. The MVP depends heavily on reproductive rates of the
species.
Geographic ranges of species are dynamic, over time they can contract or
expand due to environmental change or human activity. Often a species
will require another species' presence, for example Drosophila in Hawaii.
Species ranges can also expand due to human actions: brown trout are now
found worldwide because of the sprerad of trout fishing.
How to Determine Population Density
Studying population growth and density offers interesting insights for the
geographic region. For instance, a population-density report may yield demographic
shifts within that region. Comparing and contrasting different lengths of time, such
as the previous decade compared to the current population density, can show the
increases or decreases in residents. The population-density calculation also helps
governments and social scientists know where the most people live in a region,
giving weight to the cultural or political influence of a city or region. To find the
population density of any given region, a researcher needs only a few variables to
make an accurate calculation. Variables depend on the unit of measurement,
however, as some countries utilize miles or kilometers to measure land space.
Researchers need to be cognizant of such measurement differences.
Related Searches:
Ecosystem Ecology
Population Data
Difficulty:
Easy
Instructions
Things You'll Need
Census Data
1.
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Calculate or find the area of the region. The area is defined by the
square miles or kilometers that define the region. Most governments
define the area of a country, state, or municipality. If the measured
region includes two or more countries or states, the researcher needs
to add up the total areas of each state.
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