ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS

The constituents that influence the rate of change in the numbers of a particular species found in the wild include such density-dependent factors. Environmental aspects such as weather, temperature, flooding, snowfall, all of which are density-independent will also affect population dynamics.

FIVE BASIC COMPONENTS

Birth Death

Gender Ratio
Age Structure

Dispersal

A number of components affect a populations birth rate:

The amount and quantity of food

Age at first reproduction

The birth interval The average number of young born per pregnancy

BIRTH or NATALITY RATE

Is the total number of births per 1000 of a population each year.

DEATH or MORTALITY RATE

Is defined as the number of animals that die per unit time divided by the number of animals alive at the beginning of that time period.

GENDER RATIO
Is the proportion of males to females within a population.

AGE STRUCTURE
Percentage of the population at each age level in a population.

DISPERSAL
Is defined as the movement of an animal from the location of its birth to a new area where it lives and reproduces.

The simplest (exponential) model assumes that the resources necessary for population growth are unlimited. Therefore, the population grows at an exponential rate, which is the maximum rate possible for that particular species:

= rN (Eq.1)

where

the change in numbers of animals within a certain population per unit time r the specific rate of change N number of animals within a certain population

If No is the no. of organisms at time zero, the no. of organisms at any particular time, N can be determined by integrating Eq.1 over that particular time period:
N = Noexp(r) Noer

Growth occurs in discrete intervals described by the term .

(+) ()

= =

where N(+1) - population after (+1) no. in years N population after years r the specific growth rate (net new organisms per unit time)

Example 1: Use the ff. data along with the exponential model to determine the population of the predicted

eastern gray wolf in the state of Wisconsin in the year

2005. Compare that result with that obtained with the geometric model.

Year 1975 1980 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Number 8 22 45 83 99 148 180 200

Solution:
N() = N(0)e0.123() = 8e0.123(30) = 320 wolves

For year 0 to year 1: 8 x = a

For year 1 to year 2: a x = b

For year 2 to year 3: b x = c And so on until we get

year 4 to year 5: x = d

8 x 5 = N(5)

where N(5) is the no. of individuals 5 years later; and is equal to 22. So
8 x 5 = 22

Solving for yields = 1.224

where is the year of calculation and 0 is the first year for which data is available.

YEAR
0 5

NUMBER
8 22

1.224

15 20
21 22 23 24

45 83
99 148 180 200

1.122 1.124
1.127 1.142 1.145 1.144 Average: 1.147

N(30) = N(24) x (1.1476) = 455 individuals

The population change can be represented by the model:

rN[ ]

N() =

+()

Example 2: Assume that the population of the greater roadrunner in the Guadelope Desert was 200 per hectare at the beginning of 1999. If the carrying capacity, K, is 600 and r = 0.25 . year-1, what is the no. of roadrunners one, five & ten years? What happens when the no. of roadrunners equals K? SOLUTION:
N(1) =
+()^(.)

= 234 roadrunners N(5) = 381 roadrunners N(10) = 515 roadrunners

Numerous more complex models exist. These include phenomena known as monotonic damping, damped oscillations, limiting cycles, or chaotic dynamics. A number of these models can also be used to describe plant population dynamics.

Much more complex models describe the interactions between species by considering predator-prey relationships. These models show how the interactions between two species result in periodic behavior.

The models use the following two differential equations to describe the numbers of predators, K, and prey, P: = = where a = growth rate of the prey b = mortality parameter of the prey c = growth rate of the predator d = mortality parameter of the prey These equations are often referred to as the LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL.

HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

Human population dynamics also depend on birth, death, gender ratio, age structure, and dispersal. In humans, cultural factors play a significant role. In human populations, dispersal is referred to as immigration and emigration. The effect of cultural differences can be easily illustrated using population pyramids. Population pyramids display the age by gender data of a community at one point in time.

Population pyramids

Assuming an exponential growth rate, the population can be predicted using the equation:

P(t) = Po
where P(t) - the population at time, t Po - population at time, 0 r - rate of growth t time The growth rate can be determined as a function of the birth rate (b), death rate (d), immigration rate (i), and emigration rate (m):

r=b-d+im
where the rates are all expressed as some value per unit time.

Example 2: A population of humanoids on the island of Huronth on the planet Szacak has a net birth rate (b) of 1.0 individuals/(individual x year) and a net death rate (d) of 0.9 individuals/(individual x year). Assume that the net immigration rate is equal to the net emigration rate. How many years are required for the population to double? If in year zero, the population on the island is 85, what is the population 50 years later? Solution: r = 1.0 0.9 = tdouble =
.

No = 85 t = 50 years r = 0.1

= 6.93 years

N50 = No = 85 . () = 12,615 humanoids

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

Is the number of children a woman will have over her entire lifetime.