Pràctiques – Població 1

Population 1
 C. Population calculation. Nomenclature

pop[r] = spop[r] *(1 + (rpop[r]/100))

pop [r]= population per year x for the region r (world, country, city...)
spop [r]= population per year (x-1) for the region r
rpop [r]= population variation rate in% by region r (if we divide by 100, it
is is expressed by unit)
Pràctiques – Població 1

rpop[r] = rpopd[r] * rpopm[r]

a) if we have annual historical data (note the “d” letter):
rpopd [r]= historical population variation rate in% for the region r

b) if we want to calculate the variation of the population in the future:

rpopm [r]= multiplier, variable for creating scenarios
=1 we don't use it
<1 p.ex. birth control measures
>1 p.ex. birth boosting measures
 Calculation of the rate of change (rpopd)
Per unit time (year):
Annual rate (%)= [(value year- value (year-1))/ value (year-1)]*100
Average of the result for each couple of years

For a period of years:

Pràctiques – Població 1

Average annual variation rate (%)=(((b/a)^(1/ Δt)) – 1)*100

b: value of the population of the last year we have

a: value of the initial year
Δt: last year – initial year
 Scenarios

rpop[r] = rpopd[r] * rpopm[r]

In the reference scenario (BAU):

● Variation rate rpopm =1
Pràctiques – Població 1

● So that: rpop = rpopd (rate of historical variation)

In alternative future scenarios (practice Population2):
● rpopm =1
● rpop = rpopd
 EXERCISE 1:

Create the reference scenario (BAU, multiplier

equal to unity, rpopm = 1), of the population in the
world, Niger and Spain, from 1960 to 2050.

Population data (from 1960 to the latest year, with

Pràctiques – Població 1

data from):
http://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/SP.POP.TOTL

“Download data (excel)”

 First exercise: steps to take

- Download population data from the website

- Calculate the historical population growth rate for the
selected impoverished country, Spain and the world (from
1960 to the latest year, with data from)
- Apply the rate according to the formula to calculate the
population from 2020 to 2050
Pràctiques – Població 1

- Graphically represent the population in the selected

impoverished country, Spain and the world from 1960 to
2050 (in 3 different graphs, as the scale will be very
different)
- Comment on the results obtained