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de • Chart 1

Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment –

Experiences from the RIESGOS project

Guenter Strunz
German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Department Georisks and Civil Security

2nd Multi-Hazard Early Warning Conference (MHEWC-II)

“​Big data and Space applications”
14 May 2019
Geneva, Switzerland
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Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

… as basis for Impact Based Early Warning

Source: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems: A Checklist; 1st MHEWC, Cancun, May 2017
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Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

… as basis for Impact Based Early Warning

Source: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems: A Checklist; 1st MHEWC, Cancun, May 2017
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From Single-Hazard to Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

• Hazard & Risk are usually treated individually

• This leads to the neglection of the spatial, temporal and causal relationships between
hazards

• These relationships can significantly amplify the risk

Earthquake Tsunami Exposure Vulnerability Critical Infrastructure

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Hazard Interactions

• Triggering relationships
• e.g. earthquake triggering landslides
• groundwater abstraction triggering regional subsidence

• Increased-probability relationships
• e.g. landslides blocking rivers and increasing the probability of floods
• wildfires increasing the probability of landslides
• earthquakes affecting buildings and increasing the vulnerability for following
hazards

• Networks of hazard interactions (cascades)

• natural disasters triggering technological accidents (e.g. release of hazardous
materials)
• natural disasters affecting “critical infrastructures” (energy, water, transport,
health, etc)
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The RIESGOS Project

From single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment, including exposure and dynamic

vulnerability, and progressing towards the analysis of cascading effects

PARTNERS ú DLR ú TUM ú EOMAP

ú GFZ ú 52°North ú plan + risk
ú AWI ú geomer ú Dialogik

ASSOCIATED ú GIZ ú UNOOSA / UN-SPIDER

PARTNERS ú Munich RE ú UNESCO

REGION Chile, Ecuador and Peru

TOPIC Natural risks

FUNDING BMBF – CLIENT II (Funding code: 03G0876)

DURATION 01/11/2017 – 30/10/2020

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Research & Development towards Practical Application

NATURAL HAZARD MULTI-RISK INFORMATION

AND SCENARIO ASSESSMENT SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT COMPONENTS

Research Development
§ Earthquakes § Exposure models and § Decentralized
§ Landslides dynamic vulnerability architecture
§ Volcanoes § Evaluation of physical § Standards for
§ Floods and systemic impacts interoperability
§ Tsunamis § Critical infrastructure
§ Web services
§ Cascading effects
§ Multi-risk exploration Application
tool
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Exposure and dynamic vulnerability

• Characterization of the built environment

• by combining space-based data and data from social media / web data

• New data science approaches

• e.g. convolutional neural networks, deep learning techniques

Combined “Top-down” and “Bottom-up” approach

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Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery

Copyright: ESA–P. Carril

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TanDEM-X mission

Copyright: DLR
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TanDEM-X WorldDEM – Santiago de Chile

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nDSM Building heights – Santiago de Chile

high

medium

low
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nDSM Building heights – Lima

high

medium

low
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Exposure and dynamic vulnerability

• Characterization of the built environment

• by combining space-based data and data from social media / web data

• New data science approaches

• e.g. convolutional neural networks, deep learning techniques

Combined “Top-down” and “Bottom-up” approach

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Images from Social Media, Google Street View, ...

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Exposed elements – building structures

• Automated estimation of geo-localized in-situ building structure information using

Google Street View and Deep Learning techniques

• Separation of facade / non-facade view using pre-trained Convolutional Neural

Networks (CNN)

Reclassification
VGG16 - CNN

Building facade Other

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Building facade Other

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RIESGOS Multi-Risk Exploration Tool

Results are transferred as web services into an exploration tool*)

Selection of
seismic event

*) screenshots for demonstration purpose only

(simplified representation of various cascading steps)
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RIESGOS Multi-Risk Exploration Tool

Results are transferred as web services into an exploration tool*)

Selection of
seismic event

Ground motion
forecasting
(shakemap)

*) screenshots for demonstration purpose only

(simplified representation of various cascading steps)
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RIESGOS Multi-Risk Exploration Tool

Results are transferred as web services into an exploration tool*)

Selection of
seismic event

Ground motion
forecasting
(shakemap)

Exposure
(according to
building types)

*) screenshots for demonstration purpose only

(simplified representation of various cascading steps)
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Demonstrator
under development
RIESGOS Multi-Risk Exploration Tool V1.0 available Nov 2019

• Explore, describe and quantify multi-risk situations and cascading effects

• Combine and orchestrate decentralized web services
• Modular and interoperable approach
• Guided by the needs of the users and its practical applicability
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www.riesgos.de

The research and development project RIESGOS (Grant No. 03G0876) is funded by the German Federal
Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as part of the funding programme 'CLIENT II – International
Partnerships for Sustainable Innovations'.