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Modeling the impacts of sea-level rise on the Amazon Macrotidal Mangrove Coast

Poster · June 2018

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31965.97763

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 Modeling the impacts of sea-level rise on the Amazon Macrotidal Mangrove Coast
Raoni Tomaz ,
1 Ozeas Costa Jr , André
2 Santos ,
Milton Kampel , Celso Silva Jr , Adriano Santos , Denilson Bezerra
Introduction
Mangroves are among the most biologically important ecosystems
on the planet, and a common feature of tropical and sub-tropical
coastlines. Recent data suggests that over half of the world’s
original mangrove forests have already been lost, and less than
150,000 km2 remains. Brazil has the second largest mangrove
coverage in the world (13,400 km2); the most extensive area,
which corresponds to about 57% of all mangroves in Brazil, is
found in the northern coast, along a continuous, tide-dominated
complex of deltaic systems (Fig. 1). This area, called the Amazon
Macrotidal Mangrove Coast (AMMC), covers over 7,000 km2,
and form the largest contiguous mangrove system in the world.
Because of its size and difficult access, ground-based data on the
state of AMMC mangroves is scanty, and most recent analysis
have relied on remote sensing data to survey the health of this
important ecosystem.
Figure 1. The Amazon Macrotidal Mangrove Coast (AMMC)
A few studies have attempted to map and monitor the conditions
and changes in Brazilian mangroves, and evaluate the response of
these mangroves to modern stressors, including climate change. It
is estimated that Brazil has lost at least 500 km2 (about 4%) of its
mangrove forests since the 1980s. Some of these studies have
reported mangrove loss with sea level rise and others have
reported mangrove expansion (landward migration).
Objectives
This study consists of a modeling exercise aimed at simulating the
response of the mangroves in the AMMC to sea level rise, and
identifying the intensity of landward migration and inundation
for different IPCC scenarios of eustatic sea level rise. We used a
spatially explicit model, based on cellular automata and
Geographic Information System (GIS). The simulation considers
90 elevation events, from 0.01 to 0.97 m, for the time interval
from 2010 to 2100. The highest elevation value corresponds to the
most alarming scenario of sea-level rise in the AR5-IPCC,
i.e. 0.97 m of global average elevation by 2100. Results of the
simulation were used to map areas where mangroves did not keep
pace with sea level rise and were inundated, as well as areas
where mangroves were able to migrate landward.
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Karla
3 Hélder Fook ,
3 Dario Borges ,
Viviane 3 Conceição ,
4 Brito ,
5 5 6 1
The Study Area
The AMMC coastline is very jagged, with numerous long peninsulas up to 10 km wide and
extending an average of 30 km out to the sea. In this area, a combination of coastal current
patterns, extreme tidal ranges and sediment discharge from numerous rivers produce a highly
dynamic mangrove ecosystem. Tides in the region are semidiurnal, with mean spring tide ranging
around 3.3 m on the inner shelf, although significant amplification occurs inside estuaries and
bays. The tidal range in Marajó Bay (Pará State) is around 4.0 m, while in São Marcos Bay
(Maranhão State) it can reach more than 8.0 m during equinoctial spring tides (Fig. 1).
The continental platform extends some 330 km into the Atlantic Ocean, and receives the discharge
of the Amazon River (16% of the World’s freshwater discharge to the oceans) and dozens of other
estuaries, which together supply over 1 billion tons of sediments, nutrients and organic material
annually to the coastal zone. The outer shelf is dominated by carbonate sedimentation, both in the
form of sand and reefs that have been dated at 17,000 cal yr BP. The inner shelf initiates
approximately at the 20 m isobath (15 km away from the coast along the northeast section of Pará
State), where transgressive siliciclastic marine sands start to occur. The majority of the sand is
composed of well-sorted clear quartz and suggests a marine origin.
The climate is governed by seasonal changes in the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ), which is positioned around 14°N during the dry season (September-November) and
around 2°S during the wet season (February-April), when 73% of the annual precipitation occurs.
Average air temperatures are usually above 25°C, with little variation between seasons, and annual
precipitation ranges from 2300-2800 mm.
This study focuses only on the portion of the AMMC within the Maranhão state (Fig. 2A). Here,
mangroves reach their maximum seaward development, with widths varying between 26-40 km.
This section contains about 72% (5,414 km2) of the mangroves in the AMMC.
Figure 2. (A) The study area comprises a section of the AMMC within the Maranhão State; (B)
satellite images were used to map the extent of the mangrove at the start of the simulation (2010);
(C) soil attribute data and (D) altimetry classes from the Ecological-Economic Zoning of the State.
1 Silvana Amaral ,
5
Modeling Experiment
The model used in this study (BR-MANGROVE) was designed to
simulate mangrove ecosystem response to sea-level rise (SLR).
Modeling procedures were carried out in order to simulate the
following events: (i) sea level advancement over the continent; (ii)
displacement of the tidal influence area (TIA); (iii) sediment
longitudinal accretion (formation of new mud banks) in areas
adjacent to the mangrove forests; (iv) changes in the extent of the
mangrove areas; (v) the impact of barriers to landward migration
and the development of new mangrove areas. Satellite images were
used to map the mangrove extent at the beginning of the simulation
in 2010 (Fig. 2B). Data on soil attributes and altimetry classes (Fig.
2C,D) were taken from official mapping conducted by EMBRAPA
for the Ecological-Economic Zoning of the Maranhão State.
Results & Discussion
The area of mangrove at the start of the simulation (2010) was
calculated at 4,180 km2, which corresponds to 20.3% of the study
area. At the end of the simulation (2100), the original mangrove
area was reduced to 2,916 km2, a loss of 30.2%. However, this loss
of original mangrove area was compensated by extensive landward
migration, which resulted in the addition of 1,585 km2 of new
mangrove cover, for a final mangrove area of 4,481 km2, a net
addition of 301 km2 of mangrove (a 7.2% increase).
Figure 3. Final condition for the modeling exercise in the study area
These results suggest that mangroves in the AMMC are very
resilient and their adaptive capacity to SLR appears to be large.
Soil accretion processes, through the production and accumulation
of organic matter and the trapping and retention of mineral
sediment, are likely the main sources of this resilience, as observed
elsewhere. Two main factors facilitated the landward migration of
these mangrove forests: The availability of a number of migration
corridors at the margins of the many existing stream channels
(created by large ebb currents) and the absence of natural or
artificial barriers for landward migration. Studies done elsewhere
in Brazil have also demonstrated how the rising post-glacial sea
level invaded low elevation coastal areas and fostered mangrove
colonization into these shallow and broad fluvial valleys.