Strategic Foresight 01 - Final PDF

LECTURE
Strategic
Foresight
9.2.2023 – 29.4.2023
Dipl.-Kffr. Martina Schwarz-Geschka

Oestrich-Winkel, 09.02.2023
Strategic Foresight
Date Day Time Format Content
Introduction, Overview Strategic Foresight,
09.02.2023 Thursday 16:15 - 19:30 On Site
Methods Part I
Methods Part II,
16.02.2023 Thursday 19:30 - 21:00 Online
Work Assignment Essays
02.03.2023 Thursday 15:30 - 20:30 On Site Prof. Ralf Isenmann: Technology Roadmapping
Basics of Scenariotechnique,
23.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
Theoretical Input Scenariotechnique,
30.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
06.04.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
12.04.2023 Wednesday 8:30 - 13:30 On Site Presentations: Scenarios and first Implications
Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Integration/Implementation of
14.04.2023 Friday 13:30 - 18:30 On Site
Future Knowledge into Strategy (Working Title)
21.04.2023 Friday 14:30 - 16:00 Online Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Discussing Excercise
Organisation of Strategic Foresight, the Human Factor
29.04.2023 Saturday 13:30-16:45 On Site
in Strategic Foresight; Summary, Final Questions
02.05.2023 (Tuesday) Written Exam
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 2

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction
The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight
Overview Strategic Foresight and Definitions
Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 1
Sources of future knowledge

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

Martina Schwarz-Geschka – CEO Geschka GmbH
Relevant experience
• More than 20 years experience in consulting large and medium enterprises,
as well as institutions
• Numerous scenario and foresight projects for enterprises, institutions
and associations
• Development of a cloud-based scenario software
• Lecturer at Zurich International Business School (CH) and Wilhelm-Büchner
University of applied Sciences Darmstadt (DE) (Innovation, Foresight)
Specific know how
• Development of innovation strategies and processes
• Foresight methods, especially scenario development
• Design and moderation of innovation workshops
• Strategic ideation, creativity techniques, idea management
Industries
• Automotive, Manufacturing, Energy, Research Institutions, Associations
Profiles
• Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martina-schwarz-geschka/
• Homepage: www.geschka.de, www.szenariotechnik.com

References
Examples
• Methodical Lead of the "Future of Mobility" scenarios study conducted by the
Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo) in Munich and a consortium of BMW,
MAN, Deutsche Bahn and Lufthansa. (over 10 years)
• Development of the next generation product strategy for an commercial
vehicle manufacturer (based on scenario of freight transport in Europe and
regional scenarios for Germany, Great Britain, Denmark, Russia, China)
• Preparation and methodical lead for a stakeholderworkshop „Mobility and
public transport“
• Scenario „Intelligent cars“ as basis for strategic planning for an OEM
• The energy network of the future - scenarios as the basis for an alternative
network planning in Germany
• Methodical lead of a Scenario-based Technology-Roadmap for
„Self healing Materials“

Excercise
1. Think back 10 Years!
- How old were you?

- What is for you the biggest change since then?
Past Future
2013 2023
2. Lets make a time travel
To which time (past or future)

would you travel and why?

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

9
Forecasts are not correct!
Costs in the
healthcare sector
Tax revenues Number of horse-

drawn carriages

About Accuracy of Technology Forecasts ….
“No Sir. The Americans may need the phone, "The television will not succeed in the market.
but we don't! We have great many couriers.“ People will very soon get tired of staring at a
plywood box every night."
(Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer of the BritishPost Office,
1896, to Graham Bell, when the latter showed him the (D.F. Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946)
practicality use of the telephone.)
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/webwelt/gallery13791023/TV-Geraete-von-1931-bis-2011.html
https://www.elektronikpraxis.de/alexander-graham-bell-und-der-kampf-ums-telefon-a-f755f199d598a66a192cdb1c14e78606/

About Accuracy of Technology Forecasts ….
"I think there is a world market for maybe five "There's no reason to put a computer in the
computers." home."
(Ken Olson, Digital Equipment, 1977)
(Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943)
ENIAC 1942 Apple II 1977
https://www.planet-wissen.de/technik/computer_und_roboter/geschichte_des_computers/pwiegrossrechner100.html https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/search/object/nmah_334638

Development of Electromobility in Germany
"By 2020, one million

electric vehicles are to be
on the German market and
Germany is to be Number of electrically powered cars in Germany 2011-2021
developed into the lead
market for Share of electric vehicles in new
electromobility.“ registrations:0,6%
(National Electromobility
Development Plan, 2009)

Why do forecasts not occur?
▪ Deliberate counter-reactions to forecasts with negative effects

▪ Forecasts can be normative (see electromobility example)
▪ Unpredictable exogenous events:
Natural disasters, major technical accidents, scientific breakthroughs, political events, etc.
▪ The (individual) human being is a poor estimator,
especially in the case of circumstances for which there is no empirical knowledge
▪ The interrelationships are too complex and intransparent
e.g. exponential developments
▪ The forecaster can rarely detach himself from the general mood in society

Zürich International Business School (ZIBS) © Martina Schwarz-Geschka 15
https://wetter.tagesschau.de/import/wetter-cms/vorhersagen/img//eu-vs-t_xl.jpg
https://www.dw.com/de/tod-und-verw%C3%BCstung-nach-hurrikan-maria/a-40636110
https://f3.blick.ch/img/incoming/origs7351907/4251036774-w980-h960/20170907-BLI-Hurrikan- 16
maria.png
Why is it still worth looking at the future?
The purpose of a forecast is not exact Studies of the future are not produced to
accuracy, but rather be right, but rather
▪ the conscious choice of certain ▪ to better prepare for future developments
assumptions
.... away from gut feeling! ▪ to plan in a better way
▪ the recognition of bottlenecks ▪ to make better ( more substantiated)
▪ the sensibilization for discontinuities decisions
▪ pointing out possible consequences

▪ thinking in alternatives

A Brief History of Foresight
Technology Foresight
Oracle of Delphi Study "Institutionalization of
Strategic Foresight as a Process
and Method in the German
Federal Government".
Ossip Flechtheim: Economy

Futurologie Delphi, System Dynamics Simulation, Scenariotechnique https://www.n-tv.de/thema/deutscher-bundestag
Fortune Teller
Ancient Prophets 1943 60´s 70´s/80´s 2022
0
20. Cent. 0
2010
50´s Military/Politicians 70er Jahre
Philosophers
Hermann Kahn:
Poets
Scenarios
Politicians First professorship
for future research
Rand Corporation
Gloomy long-term forecasts
Hudson Institut
Club of Rome (Meadows): „Limits to Growth“
Oracle of Deophi: www.alaturka.info/ Military Planning: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milit%C3%A4risches_Planspiel#/media/
Jule Verne: www.amazon.de Datei:The_Royal_Navy_during_the_Second_World_War_A13200.jpg
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka Karl Marx: www.deutschlandfunk.de
Ossip Flechtheim: https://medium.com/@YelticVR/futurolog%C3%ADa-la-disciplina-que-se-
The next 100 years (Kahn): www.medimops.de
Shell: https://creativehub.shell.com/web/1783c1190a5b2744/brand-and-identity/?mediaId=8F721F09-4165-47EA- 18
adelanta-a-los-hechos-1089a665d1e3 ACF06CB71464A44ALimits to growth: https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/
Hermann Kahn: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn RWTH Aachen: https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:RWTH_Logo_3.svg
Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

Our World is characterized by many Uncertainties....
https://www.vuca.de/#VUCA_Definition
https://digitalleadership.com/blog/bani-world/
https://ticommunication.eu/de/von-vuca-zu-vucad%C2%B2-gehts-noch-komplizierter/

„ Strategy is not about future
decisions but about the future
impact of today's decisions“
Peter F. Drucker, 1909 - 2005
What does Future Research/Futurology mean?
Foresight or Futurology (latin futurum „Future“ und -

logy) is the systematic and critical scientific
investigation of questions of possible future
developments in the technical, economic and
social fields.*
Other terms, sometimes slightly different meanings :
Future Research, Futures Studies, Futurism
Futurology is, in other words: Foresight is not...

▪ Method-supported, systematic and comprehensible ▪ Strategic Planning
elaboration of statements about the future ▪ Planning roadmaps
▪ Elaboration of proposals or requirements for ▪ "Future workshop" (e.g., as pure idea-
✓ 
achieving desired future situations (shaping of the finding or brainstorming events).
future)
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka * Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zukunftsforschung 22

Characteristics of Strategic Foresight
“Strategic foresight refers to the long-term forward-looking behavior of an

organization that is geared to decision-making.
It integrates the ideas, procedures and instruments of trend research and
futurology to support strategic decision-making in an organizational context.”
(Translated: Adrian W. Müller, Günter Müller-Stewens (2009): Strategic Foresight, p. 6)
“Strategic foresight helps us to anticipate and better prepare.

Strategic foresight is a structured and systematic way of using ideas about the future to
anticipate and better prepare for change. It is about exploring different plausible futures that
could arise, and the opportunities and challenges they could present.”
https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/

Characteristics of Strategic Foresight
“Strategic foresight is an organized, systematic way of looking beyond the expected to

engage with uncertainty and complexity. It is critical to effective emergent strategic
planning in volatile and fast-moving environments and is essential in moving past linear
problem-solving approaches.”
(United Nations, CEPA strategy guidance note on Strategic planning and foresight (2021), p. 2)
In the context of corporate strategy,

strategic foresight therefore involves three central tasks:
• the preparation of strategic decisions
• the long-term safeguarding of the company's competitiveness,
• And the permanent strengthening of the company's ability to learn and innovate.
Summarised and translated: Burmeister, K., Neef, A. und Beyers, B. (2004). Corporate Foresight – Unternehmen gestalten Zukunft

Integration of Future Research
Foresight Orientation
Strategic
„Big Picture“ Vision
Scenarios
Mission Statement
Megatrends
Strategy
Understand
Realise
Technology-Roadmaps Strategic Initiatives
Flight Level
Technology-Roadmaps
Trends
Product-Roadmaps
Qualitative Forecasts
Business Plans
Operativ, Market Studies Projects

detailled

Future Elements
Constants, Paradigms:
Knowledge, that qualifies as certain as well as stable
circumstances
Trends
Focused changes that are partially based on facts and
partially based on convictions and subjective Opinion
Uncertainties
Uncertainty about new phenomena and circumstances that
are subject to possible Developments, i.e. objects of
supposition and intuition
Contradiction:
Opposing, mutually exclusive views or opinions that are
possible about all stages of change
Chaos and Wildcards
Not subject to calculation, can lead to sudden change,
subsumed under speculation
Source: Ulf Pillkahn: Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development (2007), p. 119/1120
What actually is....? A few explanations of terms
Foresight Future-related statements in general
Specification of a quantitative value for an indicator at a future point in time (e.g. market
Forecast
volume for product X in 2023)
Vision Idealistic picture of a future situation (optimistic, wishful state)
Utopias show desirable future, but mostly fictitious forms of life or social systems, not
Utopia/Dystopia linked to today.Dystopias, on the other hand, are narratives that depict frightening or
undesirable social orders.
Novelistic representation with acting persons, which takes place either in the future or in
Science Fiction
other living environments. Scientific/technically oriented ("Science")
Description of various future situations based on current situations and trends as well as
Scenarios
the expected changes in the future
“FL is a capability. It is the skill that allows people to better understand the role of the
Future Literacy
future in what they see and do” (https://en.unesco.org/futuresliteracy/about)

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

Futurology:
Variety of methods with different structuring criteria
according to time and Information Basis
Normativ Explorativ
….
Scenarios x x
Delphi x x
Statistical
modeling x
System Dynamics x
….

Methoden der strategischen Frühaufklärung und Technologieplanung
Markt-oriented Technology-oriented
Drivers for change are market Drivers are technological
developments (market pull) developments (technology push)
…
Lead Market Integrativ

Trendanalysis, Technology- Technology
Trendradare Analysis scouting and
Scenarios forecasting, Radars
-monitoring
Industry Forecasting … Vision … … Publication Analysis
analysis (Markets,
Economy, …) Backcasting Analysis of
Patents Bibliometrics
… Technology-
Focusgroups Roadmapping Delphi-Studies
Expert- Benchmarking
Interviews …
Knowledge
Broker Expert- Data Mining
… interviews
…

Trends
Interactive Grafics
How has beer consumption developed? How many Germans have a smartphone? How many Germans eat a
(l/head) (percentage) vegan/vegetarian diet?

.
33
Typ of Trends
• Trends are
„Focused changes that are partially
based on facts and partially based on
convictions and subjective Opinion“*
• Characteristic:
“Consistent, persistent and essentially
continuous development” *
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka * Source: Ulf Pillkahn: Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development (2007), p. 125 34
Typ of Trends – the „Wave Modell“*
Mode
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka * Source: https://www.horx.com/Zukunftsforschung-2010/02-M-03-Trend-Definitionen.pdf 35

Megatrends – Example Zukunftsinstitut
Individualization Silver Society

New Work Neo-Ecology
Globalisation Mobility
Gender Shift Knowledge Culture

Health Connectivity
Urbanisation Security
Duration: Megatrends last at least a couple of decades.

Ubiquity: Megatrends illustrate impacts in all societal areas, as well as the economy, consumption habits, value
development, coexistence of people, the media, the political system and so on.
Globility: Megatrends are global phenomena. Even if not distinguished everywhere at the same time to the same extent,
sooner or later they can be observed worldwide.
Complexity: Megatrends are multi-layered and -dimensional trends. They create their dynamic and evolutionary pressure
through their interdependencies. *
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka *Source: https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/dossier/megatrends-en/ 36

https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Megatrend_Doku/MT_Maps_und_Grafiken/Megatrend-
Doku_2021-Megatrend_Map-Englisch_Web.pdf

https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Megatrend_Doku/MT_Maps_und_Grafiken/Megatrend-Doku_2021-Megatrend_Map-Englisch_Web.pdf
Megatrends - Example Zukunftsinstitut
Megatrend Globalisation
The Megatrend Globalisation describes the continuous merging of the world community. Whilst
international economic relations are restrained by fluctuating national interests, science and
economy, culture and civil societies worldwide are constantly in a closer growing free exchange of
ideas, talents, and goods. These connections are maybe the most crucial driver of human progress.
Megatrend Connectivity
The Megatrend Connectivity describes the dominant pattern of societal change in the 21st century
based on digital infrastructures. Networked communication technologies are changing our lives, work
and economising fundamentally. They reprogram socio-cultural codes and bring about new lifestyles,
behavioural patterns and business models.
Megatrend Knowledge Culture

The world is getting smarter: The global education standard is as high as ever and is nearly
everywhere still growing. Fuelled by the Megatrend Connectivity, our knowledge about the world
and the ways how we handle information is changing. Education goes digital. Cooperative and
decentralised structures for knowledge generation are growing, as is our know-how of
knowledge, its origins and distribution.
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka Source: https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/dossier/megatrends-en/ 38

Megatrends - Example European Commission
“Whenever we think about the future,. mega-trends are our first helpers.”*
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka * Source: https://ec.europa.eu/assets/epsc/pages/espas/chapter1.html 39

Structured assessment of trends and new developments

Categorising Trends - Macroenvironment
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka You can find a Description here: 41

Ulf Pillkahn: Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development (2007), p. 125/126
Evaluation of Trends
Example: Priorisation of Trends

How do you evaluate a trend?
Impact
• No science or Rocket Science
• Mostly relative weighing (forming assessments) Prio
• Use of mixed teams (different perspectives!)
1
Possible criteria Clarify
▪ Influence on / relevance for the company 2

▪ Speed of penetration (short, medium, long term) Scheduling
▪ Probability of occurrence (when will it become 3

important?)
Observe
▪ Disruption potential
Uncertainty regarding
occurrence, ignorance
regarding facts

Visualisation: Trend Radar
© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka Quelle: https://www.dhl.com/global-en/home/insights-and-innovation/insights/logistics-trend-radar.html 43

Excercise Trends
What does the future of higher education look like?
What Trends are

influencing the
Future of Education?
Discuss in Groups of 4-5 Persons,

Short Presentation

Trendanalysis and Trendmonitoring
▪ Wide analysis and collection of trendsClustering

Identification ▪ initial selection
▪ In-depth analysis
Trendmonitoring
Analysis ▪ Elaboration of trend profiles
▪ Evaluation of trends in terms of relevance and timeliness

Prioritization ▪ Visualization e.g. in trend radar or trend cockpit
▪ Evaluation of the core capabilities with regard to the trends
▪ Prioritization of possible innovation fields
Selection & Integration ▪ Evaluation of core capabilities with regard to trends

▪ Proposal of strategic options
Trend analysis should be performed regularly, e.g. as part of strategic planning

Trendmanagementprocess
Description of a Trendmanagement-Process
by Fink/Siebe (2006): Handbuch Zukunftsmanagement, p. 130

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

Excercise Sources of Knowledge
How can you obtain

Information about the
Future?
Discuss in Groups of 4-5 Persons,

Try to catogerize your findings

How to gain Knowledge about the Future?
Primary Research Secondary Research

▪ Data collection for the original ▪ Evaluation of already existing information for
purpose own purpose.
▪ Main advantage: to collect ▪ Advantage: usually fast and inexpensive
problem-specific data directly. gathering of information.
▪ Main disadvantage: high effort and ▪ Disadvantage: missing tailoring of the
therefore higher costs information to the actual topic (missing
▪ Methods: problem compatibility)
▪ Interview/Survey ▪ Methods:
▪ Panel Evaluation of e.g.
▪ Observation official statistics,
trade fair reports,
▪ Experiment
press,
company reports.

Sources of Knowledge about the Future: Secondary Research
Typ Example
Official Statistics Statistics portals of the countries (e.g. Destatis), Eurostat, United Nations, Weltbank, …
Commercial platforms for statistics Statista
Industry associations Chambers of Commerce (IHK, Außenhandelskammern), national Associations (e.g. VAA,
VDI, …), international Agencies/Associations (z.B. IEA – International Energy Association),
Bitkom, …
Financial services provider DB Research, FERI (Investment Company)
Service providers, management Gartner, Deloitte, EY, PwC, Boston Consulting, Bureau van Dijk, Deutscher
consultancies, market research institutes Technologiedienst, IfD Allensbach…
Futurologist and consultants Zukunftsinstitut, 2B Ahead, Future Management Group
Think Tanks IZT - Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung,

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V., …
Website „Think Tank Directory Deutschland“
http://www.thinktankdirectory.org/directory/directory.html
Educational institutions, publishers State libraries, universities, colleges, publishing houses (e.g. Springer, Elsevier), …
(literature)
Trade conferences, trade fairs Numerous subject specific conferences: e.g. IAA, Hannover-Messe

Sources of Knowledge about the Future: Primary Research
Use of Expert Knowledge
Individual interviews Workshops & Panels (recurring

▪ Workshops:
▪ Obtain a professional assessment
from the perspective of the individual ▪ Development of specific content-related
expert topics in the discourse of the experts.
▪ Important: Results orientation
▪ Important for interviewing: Discussions must lead to a result and be
▪ Good preparation (technical recorded (no "chit-chat")
knowledge/terminology)
▪ Panels:
▪ Guideline-oriented Group of experts, e.g. as a continuously
▪ Topic-focused, but open used early warning instrument

Video
Richtung 2000 – Vorschau auf die Welt von morgen, ZDF 1972
Teil 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShIgWz5-ScM
Teil 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiOaN5RbCBk&index=2&list=PL17C3312B95B03CF2
Teil 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StxNtLIhf4k&list=PL17C3312B95B03CF2&index=3

Agenda 09.02.2023
Introduction

Strategic Foresight
Date Day Time Format Content
Introduction, Overview Strategic Foresight,
09.02.2023 Thursday 16:15 - 19:30 On Site
Methods Part I
Methods Part II,
16.02.2023 Thursday 19:30 - 21:00 Online
Work Assignment Essays
02.03.2023 Thursday 15:30 - 20:30 On Site Prof. Ralf Isenmann: Technology Roadmapping
Basics of Scenariotechnique,
23.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
30.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
06.04.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
12.04.2023 Wednesday 8:30 - 13:30 On Site Presentations: Scenarios and first Implications
Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Integration/Implementation of
14.04.2023 Friday 13:30 - 18:30 On Site
Future Knowledge into Strategy (Working Title)
21.04.2023 Friday 14:30 - 16:00 Online Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Discussing Excercise
Organisation of Strategic Foresight, the Human Factor
29.04.2023 Saturday 13:30-16:45 On Site
in Strategic Foresight; Summary, Final Questions
02.05.2023 (Tuesday) Written Exam

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LECTURE

Dipl.-Kffr. Martina Schwarz-Geschka

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 2

The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight

Overview Strategic Foresight and Definitions

Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 1

Sources of future knowledge

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 3

The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight

Overview Strategic Foresight and Definitions

Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 1

Sources of future knowledge

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 4

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 5

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 6

1. Think back 10 Years!

- How old were you?

2. Lets make a time travel

To which time (past or future)

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 7

The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight

Overview Strategic Foresight and Definitions

Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 1

Sources of future knowledge

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 8

Tax revenues Number of horse-

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 10

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 11

ENIAC 1942 Apple II 1977

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 12

"By 2020, one million

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 13

▪ Deliberate counter-reactions to forecasts with negative effects

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 14

▪ pointing out possible consequences

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 17

Ossip Flechtheim: Economy

The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight

Overview Strategic Foresight and Definitions

Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 1

Sources of future knowledge

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 19

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 20

Foresight or Futurology (latin futurum „Future“ und -

Futurology is, in other words: Foresight is not...

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka * Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zukunftsforschung 22

“Strategic foresight refers to the long-term forward-looking behavior of an

“Strategic foresight helps us to anticipate and better prepare.

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 23

“Strategic foresight is an organized, systematic way of looking beyond the expected to

In the context of corporate strategy,

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 24

Operativ, Market Studies Projects

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 25

Foresight Future-related statements in general

Vision Idealistic picture of a future situation (optimistic, wishful state)

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 27

The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight

Overview Strategic Foresight and Definitions

Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 1

Sources of future knowledge

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 28

The Problem of Forecasts, History of Foresight