LECTURE

Strategic
Foresight
9.2.2023 – 29.4.2023

Lecture 16.02.2023
Dipl.-Kffr. Martina Schwarz-Geschka
Zoom, 16.02.2023
Strategic Foresight
Date Day Time Format Content
Introduction, Overview Strategic Foresight,
09.02.2023 Thursday 16:15 - 19:30 On Site
Methods Part I
Methods Part II,
16.02.2023 Thursday 19:30 - 21:00 Online
Work Assignment Essays
02.03.2023 Thursday 15:30 - 20:30 On Site Prof. Ralf Isenmann: Technology Roadmapping
Basics of Scenariotechnique,
23.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
Theoretical Input Scenariotechnique,
30.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
Theoretical Input Scenariotechnique,
06.04.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
12.04.2023 Wednesday 8:30 - 13:30 On Site Presentations: Scenarios and first Implications
Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Integration/Implementation of
14.04.2023 Friday 13:30 - 18:30 On Site
Future Knowledge into Strategy (Working Title)
21.04.2023 Friday 14:30 - 16:00 Online Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Discussing Excercise
Organisation of Strategic Foresight, the Human Factor
29.04.2023 Saturday 13:30-16:45 On Site
in Strategic Foresight; Summary, Final Questions
02.05.2023 (Tuesday) Written Exam

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 2

Agenda 16.02.2023

Methods for Strategic Foresight – Part 2

Work Assignment Essays

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 3

Strategic Foresight: Methods

Markt-oriented Technology-oriented
Drivers for change are market Drivers are technological
Trend-braking developments (market pull) developments (technology push)
Events: …
Wildcards Lead Market Integrativ
Trendanalysis, Technology- Technology
Trendradars Analysis scouting and
Scenarios forecasting, Radars
-monitoring
Industry Forecasting … Vision … … Publication Analysis
analysis (Markets,
Economy, …) Backcasting Analysis of
Patents Bibliometrics
… Technology-
Focusgroups Roadmapping Delphi-Studies
Expert- Benchmarking
Interviews …
Knowledge
Broker Expert- Data Mining
… interviews
…

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 4

Wild Cards: Incidents with low probability but strong impact
https://www.aerzteblatt.de/archiv/67200/Tsunami-im-indischen-
Ozean-Der-Wiederaufbau-ist-abgeschlossen https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2012/07/05/156295055/report-bad-
procedures-caused-the-fukushima-nuclear-disaster https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/maki
ng-putin-pay-russia-must-finance-the-rebuilding-of-
post-war-ukraine/

2001 Tsunami Indian Ocean 2008 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster 2020 Russian Invasion

World Trade Center Attacks 2004 Global Financial Crisis 2011 Corona Virus 2021

https://www.history.com/news/2008-financial-crisis-causes https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1
https://www.latimes.com/travel/la-xpm-2001-sep-12-na-sept-11-
attack-201105-01-story.html

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 5

Charakteristics of Wildcards (Trendbraking Events)

▪ Unexpected events that Attention

have a low probability,
but whose occurrence Incident
causes strong
changes. Over-reaction (panic or hype)
▪ They drive
developments in a General Effects
Acceleration
direction that deviates
from the trend
specific impacts
▪ They are very difficult Trigger
or impossible to Normalisation under
predict (If at all, then via changed conditions
Weak
weak signals) Signals Getting used to a new
normality

Latency Phase Manifest Phase Time

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 6

Course of Wildcards (Trendbraking Events)

Elina Hiltunen (2006): What is a wildcard or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change? Journal of Futures Studies, November 2006, 11(2): p. 61 - 74

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 7

Wildcard Management

Example: Evonik Industries

Cross-departmental project
Identification
▪ 1 interdisciplinary team of
experienced experts in the
fields of foresight,
chemistry, controlling,
Evaluation economics, and risk
management
▪ 8 meetings for joint
Prevention and identification and
Preparation discussion of wild cards
over a period of six months
▪ 95 wild cards identified
Early Warning
“Surprise Anticipation

https://www.creavis.com/en/foresight/wildcards

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 8

Example Evonik Industries

Source: Evonik, https://www.creavis.com/de/foresight/wildcards

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 9

Wildcard Management

John L. Petersen (1997):

Out of the Blue, Madison Books,
Identification
Laham

Seven Criteria to evaluate Wild Cards

Evaluation 1. Speed of change
2. Range (local to global)
3. Vulnerability of the environment
4. Uncertainty of the effects
Prevention and
Preparation
5. Timeline
6. Opposition (against the wildcard)
7. Strength of Influence
Early Warning
“Surprise Anticipation

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 10

Wildcard Management

Character of Wildcard

Event/Situational Development/Process
Identification
Preventive measures to

Latent Phase
Preventive measures to
influence the

(prevent)
influence the
occurrence

Time of own action

development
Evaluation (e.g. beeing prepared for
(e.g. WHO program on
remote work, laptops
emerging virus diseases)
instead of computers

Prevention and

Manifest Phase
Preparation
Reactive measures to Reactive measures to

(reactive
react on the occurence react on the occurence
(e.g. emergency plans for at a special point
Early Warning technical incidents) (e.g. Fossil fuel ban)
“Surprise Anticipation”

Translated: Alexander Fink, Andreas Siebe(2006): Handbuch Zukunftsmanagement, p. 145

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 11

Dramatic increase in extreme climatic situations
"Extreme heat and floods occur regularly. Climate fluctuations in Central Europe became
more severe: hurricanes, torrential floods and prolonged periods of drought were repeated
at ever shorter intervals. The hurricanes devastated individual regions in both southern and
northern Germany in a short period of time. Heavy rainfall also increased, tending to occur
more frequently in southern Germany than in northern Germany. At the same time, hot
spells occurred more frequently in the summers, causing many deaths in Europe."
(translated from: ifmo, Studie „Zukunft der Mobilität 2025“; 2005)

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/panorama/hochwasser-an-der-elbe-weitere-evakuierungen-in-sachsen-
anhalt/8336174.html 12
Strategic Foresight: Methods

Markt-oriented Technology-oriented
Drivers for change are market Drivers are technological
Trend-braking developments (market pull) developments (technology push)
Events: …
Wildcards Lead Market Integrativ
Trendanalysis, Technology- Technology
Trendradars Analysis scouting and
Scenarios forecasting, Radars
-monitoring
Industry Forecasting … Vision … … Publication Analysis
analysis (Markets,
Economy, …) Backcasting Analysis of
Patents Bibliometrics
… Technology-
Focusgroups Roadmapping Delphi-Studies
Expert- Benchmarking
Interviews …
Knowledge
Broker Expert- Data Mining
… interviews
…

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 13

Technology Intelligence Methods (Lichtenthaler)

Big Data
Patent Analytics
Online Search Only a few with a long-term
Quantitativ

Engines
Bibliometrics
horizon!
Knowledge Management
Technology Radars
Venture Capital Funds
Internal
Kind of Method

Newsletter
Crowd Sourcing
Technology
Landscape Maps Delphi Interviews
Technology Scouts
Innovation Service Consultants
Roadmapping Lichtenthaler, E. 2005:
Opinion
Papers The Choice of Technology
Trend Intelligence Methods in
Workshops
Qualitativ

Incentive
Awards
Multinationals: Towards A
Technology Brokers Contingency Approach“;
Innovation Panels International Journal of Technology
Scenario Planning
Management, Vol. 32, No. 3-4
Listening Posts
1-3 5 10 15 20 25

Timeline [Years]

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 14

Strategic Foresight: Methods

Markt-oriented Technology-oriented
Drivers for change are market Drivers are technological
Trend-braking developments (market pull) developments (technology push)
Events: …
Wildcards Lead Market Integrativ
Trendanalysis, Technology- Technology
Trendradars Analysis scouting and forecasting, Radars
Scenarios -monitoring
Industry Forecasting … Vision … … Publication Analysis
analysis (Markets,
Economy, …) Backcasting Analysis of
Patents Bibliometrics
… Technology-
Focusgroups Roadmapping Delphi-Studies
Expert- Benchmarking
Interviews …
Knowledge
Broker Expert- Data Mining
… interviews
…

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 15

Technology Scouting and -Monitoring

Activity Observation object Perspective Objective

Technological business Undirected and Overview of global

Scanning environment unfocused technology trends

Keeping track of what is

Specific technology Directed and weakly
Monitoring fields focused
happening in relevant
technology fields

Specific technology
Directed and strongly Obtaining detailed
Scouting topics and sources of
focused technology information
knowledge

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 16

Technology S-Curve

The higher the performance, the

more efforts have to be made for
further increases

Josef Gochermann (2022):

Technology Management; Chapter:
What Is the Significance of the Technology S-
Curve?, Springer, Pages 9-13

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 17

 Technology Radar - Zalando
put technology on hold

promising technology,
start R&D

potential value, R&D

activities have started

works well for the

company,well supported

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka

https://opensource.zalando.com/tech-radar/ 18
Gartner Hype Cycle of Technologies

Attention
Peak of Inflated
Expectations

Plateau of productivity

Trough of
disappointments
Innovation
www.garnter.com Trigger
Time

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 19

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2010

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 20

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2012

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 21

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 22

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2014

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 23

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2014

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 24

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2015

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 25

Survey

When Ethereum had

its hype phase?
(Peak of Inflated Expections)

Source: Gartner Inc, modified by Anthony Bertolino

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka Article to read/hear: https://abertolino.medium.com/ethereum-and-the-gartner-hype-cycle-706c022d1ec4 26

Strategic Foresight: Methods

Markt-oriented Technology-oriented
Drivers for change are market Drivers are technological
Trend-braking developments (market pull) developments (technology push)
Events: …
Wildcards Lead Market Integrativ
Trendanalysis, Technology- Technology
Trendradars Analysis scouting and forecasting, Radars
Scenarios -monitoring
Industry Forecasting … Vision … … Publication Analysis
analysis (Markets,
Economy, …) Backcasting Analysis of
Patents Bibliometrics
… Technology-
Focusgroups Roadmapping Delphi-Studies
Expert- Benchmarking
Interviews …
Knowledge
Broker Expert- Data Mining
… interviews
…

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 27

Delphi-Method

1964: First public study

Theodore J. Gordon/Olaf Helmer:
Delphi study on technological breakthrouhgs until the year 2000

Assumption:
Group judgements are more valid than individual judgements

Characteristics:
▪ Anonymous written questioning of experts (big number) Oracle of Delphi
www.alaturka.info/
▪ Questioning in several rounds (->Panel)
▪ After each round, panelists can review the aggregated results and can reconsider their
assessment based on the added information
▪ Aiming for consensus

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 28

Process Delphi-Method

Setup 1. Questioning Analysis

• Research Topic
Definition Result
• Development of a
standardised
questionnaire
• Expert Panel
selection
Several Rounds
(3-4)
Adaption Feedback
Modification of own Of the group voting to
expert assessment, the panelists
if desired

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 29

Process Delphi-Method

Daniel Beiderbeck, Nicolas Frevel,

Heiko A. von der Gracht, Sascha
L. Schmidt, VeraM. Schweitzer:

Preparing, conducting, and analyzing

Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary
practices, new directions, and
advancements

Elsevier MethodsX 8 (2021) 101401

https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S2215016121001941?
token=B534401981E5AA61BA3785FE503FDA00A6AAB0EC4
3C62690C8719851E4167E7CA48E2D319CDEBE6D5C6B6F6
01F23496D&originRegion=eu-west-
1&originCreation=20230216003355

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 30

Strategic Foresight: Methods

Markt-oriented Technology-oriented
Drivers for change are market Drivers are technological
Trend-braking developments (market pull) developments (technology push)
Events: …
Wildcards Lead Market Integrativ
Trendanalysis, Technology- Technology
Trendradars Analysis scouting and forecasting, Radars
Scenarios -monitoring
Industry Forecasting … Vision … … Publication Analysis
analysis (Markets,
Economy, …) Backcasting Analysis of
Patents Bibliometrics
… Technology-
Focusgroups Roadmapping Delphi-Studies
Expert- Benchmarking
Interviews …
Knowledge
Broker Expert- Data Mining
… interviews
…

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 31

Work assignment Essay

1. Choose a company and a product area of this company

(e.g. Apple -> Smartphones; Nestlé -> Baby Foods; Barclay Banks -> Insurance, ….)
2. Describe the key facts for this company/product area: the product/service offering, number of employees and sales,
locations, the most important markets and competitors (0,75-1 page) (citation of sources)
3. Identify 8 trends that strongly influence the future development of your selected product area/market
(Brainstorming, no zitation necessary) (be more specific than megatrends!)
4. Rank them by pairwise comparison; include an enumeration of the trends, the matrix and the final ranking in your
essay (0.5 pages) (your own judgement)
5. Describe the 5 most relevant Trends briefly but precise (appr. 1,5 - 2 pages) (citation of sources)
6. Fill in the Trend Canvas for the most important trend (Rank 1), insert a grafic in your essay (1 page) – provide also the
original as separate file.
7. Consider your business: What opportunities and risks arise from the trends? (1 page)
8. Reflection: what went easily, where did questions/problems arise? (0.5 pages)
Formalities
▪ cover sheet with full name, matriculation number, course
▪ 5-6 Pages (Arial 11, Times Roman 12), pdf-format
▪ Send in until 17.03.2023

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 32

Pairwise Comparisation

Ranking of trends according to relevance for the product/market

Line by line approach:

Example question: Is trend 1 more relevant than trend 2? Yes = 1, No= 0
Trend

8
nd

nd

nd

nd

nd

nd

nd

nd
Tre

Tre

Tre

Tre

Tre

Tre

Tre

Tre
Trend Sum Rank
Trend 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1

Trend 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 2

Trend 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 5 3

Trend 4 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 4 4

Trend 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 5

Trend 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 6

Trend 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 7

Trend 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8

Entry Field

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 33

Trendcanvas

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 34

Strategic Foresight
Date Day Time Format Content
Introduction, Overview Strategic Foresight,
09.02.2023 Thursday 16:15 - 19:30 On Site
Methods Part I
Methods Part II,
16.02.2023 Thursday 19:30 - 21:00 Online
Work Assignment Essays
02.03.2023 Thursday 15:30 - 20:30 On Site Prof. Ralf Isenmann: Technology Roadmapping
Basics of Scenariotechnique,
23.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
Theoretical Input Scenariotechnique,
30.03.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
Theoretical Input Scenariotechnique,
06.04.2023 Thursday 18:00 - 19:30 Online
Working on "Mini Scenarios" (Groupwork)
12.04.2023 Wednesday 8:30 - 13:30 On Site Presentations: Scenarios and first Implications
Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Integration/Implementation of
14.04.2023 Friday 13:30 - 18:30 On Site
Future Knowledge into Strategy (Working Title)
21.04.2023 Friday 14:30 - 16:00 Online Dr. Stefan Pastuszka: Discussing Excercise
Organisation of Strategic Foresight, the Human Factor
29.04.2023 Saturday 13:30-16:45 On Site
in Strategic Foresight; Summary, Final Questions
02.05.2023 (Tuesday) Written Exam

© www.geschka.de • Martina Schwarz-Geschka 35