Hi Florin, no problem.

I decided it would be quicker and easier for me to give you my feedback in a Word
document, hope that’s OK.

I assume that this is a write-up on the conflict you are doing for someone else.

My comments in your text I will put in bold italics like this.

SBK

Good morning.

Dear Stefan, I would very much appreciated your option on the below text. Short, short brief on war.
Feel free and thank you very much for your precious time.

In 2014, separatists backed by the Russian Federation (RF) formed the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk
People’s Republics, the ensuing conflict being carried out along a contact line that divided the two
oblasts’ territory (generically known as Donbas) in a roughly 60/40 ratio in favour of Ukraine.

I think over time historians and observers will emphasize the Russian military intervention aspect
more: paratroopers attacking Mariupol, advisors and technicians permanently attached to DPR/LPR
forces, and of course the major Russian army intervention around Debaltsevo. The way you have it
written, it seems like the separatists led the creation of DPR/LPR and Moscow just helped. That was
conventional wisdom in 2015, but in 2023 I think most observers would say it was Russia-initiated,
Russia-led and Russia-fought. In the NGO/Institutional context, I tell everyone to be careful about
what they write about Russia’s intentions in the past, because what was accepted as fact five years
ago is now considered by many direct support to Russian aggression.

On 24 February 2022, the RF launched an all-out attack in north, east and south, pushing the contact line
westward (and seizing Mariupol and Kharkiv) whereas the troops in Crimea seized Kherson and joined
with the Donbas forces.

Kharkiv was not seized. Ever. The best the Russians managed was to send reconnaissance units into
the center of the city and they were annihilated. This has been thoroughly reported and I have spoken
personally with Ukrainian participants.

The Ukrainian Army denied access to Kiev and pushed RF forces back to Belarus. In April 2022, the heavy
fighting shifted again to Donbas but in September-November the Ukrainians launched a
counteroffensive, reclaiming large territories in the south and east, including cities of Kharkiv and
Kherson.

I would consider a single sentence noting the Ukrainians fought a Russian “win-the-war” offensive in
Donbass to a full stop. But that is just an option. The main error here is that the city of Kharkiv was
never lost.

Starting October 2022, the RF launched a massive campaign of cruise missile strikes against Ukraine’s
critical infrastructure, almost crippling the national electricity system. Moreover, following a stalemate
of Ukraine’s operations, the RF forces launched a fast-paced offensive and seized Soledar city.
Currently, the fighting in Donbas is focused on Bakhmut city and other villages along the contact line.

I would delete the reference to Soledar because it is a minor feature in a large campaign. You might
want to add an additional sentence giving a little more detail on fighting focusing on Bakhmut and
how both sides seem to have decided the battle and the morale impact of its outcome is more
important than the actual city.

The recent increase in the Western support gives enough reasons to forecast a Ukrainian offensive on a
short term, aimed to shatter the already weakened Russian forces, and push them back at least to the
pre-24 February 2022 contact line. However, the prognosis for an end of war during current year are
rather poor.

I would add a sentence pointing out that the UAF has not yet conducted a major, combined arms
offensive against an organized defense, so the success of the Spring offensive is far from guaranteed.
(Russians retreated on their own in Kyiv and Kherson, in Kharkiv the Ukrainians caught an
unprepared, weak Russian defense by surprise).

In short, the conflict in Donbas comprises the following characteristics:

1. All types of weapon systems are used (SALW, artillery, tanks, IFVs, attack helicopters, jet fighters as
well as land, sea and air-launched cruise missiles) which reflects in the high number of casualties and
material losses.

2. The RF attacks target not only the military troops and installations, but also the population and critical
infrastructure, hence aiming to destroy economy, starve the troops and civilians, impact the housing and
health systems, and erode the morale.

I would consider a sentence about how Ukrainian morale and the UAF’s readiness to fight seems very
strong, and in this sense the Russian attacks seem not to be achieving those objectives.

3. The propaganda and disinformation campaigns, along with gathering political, economical and
military support from states as China, India, Iran and North Korea, aim to shatter and stall the Western
support in order to reach a settlement under own conditions.

I likewise would consider a sentence about the direction of Western support, is it getting stronger or
weaker, etc.