Tons 175

∝= 0.10
∝= 0.50

Actual Tonnage ∝ = 0.10

Quarter
Unloaded Forecast

1 180 175.00
2 168 175.50
3 159 174.75
4 175 173.18
5 190 173.36
6 205 175.02
7 180 178.02
8 182 178.22
9 ? 178.60

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

∝ = 0.10 ∝ = 0.50 ∝ = 0.50
Absolute Deviation Forecast Absolute Deviation

5.00 175.00 5.00

7.50 177.50 9.50
15.75 172.75 13.75
1.82 165.88 9.13
16.64 170.44 19.56
29.98 180.22 24.78
1.98 192.61 12.61
3.78 186.30 4.30
184.15
82.46 98.63
10.31 12.33
Tons 175
∝= 0.10
∝= 0.50

Actual Tonnage
Quarter Forecast with ∝ = .10
Unloaded

1 180 175.00
2 168 175.50
3 159 174.75
4 175 173.18
5 190 173.36
6 205 175.02
7 180 178.02
8 182 178.22

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

 Absolute Deviation for ∝ = .10 (Error)2 Forecast with ∝ = .50

5.00 25.00 175.00

-7.50 56.25 177.50
-15.75 248.06 172.75
1.82 3.33 165.88
16.64 276.97 170.44
29.98 898.70 180.22
1.98 3.92 192.61
3.78 14.31 186.30
1526.54
Error (MSE) 190.82
Absolute Deviation for ∝ = .50 (Error)2

5.00 25.00
-9.50 90.25
-13.75 189.06
9.13 83.27
19.56 382.69
24.78 614.11
-12.61 159.00
-4.30 18.53
1561.91
195.24
Tons 175
∝= 0.10
∝= 0.50

Actual Tonnage
Quarter Forecast with ∝ = .10
Unloaded

1 180 175.00
2 168 175.50
3 159 174.75
4 175 173.18
5 190 173.36
6 205 175.02
7 180 178.02
8 182 178.22

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

 Absolute
Absolute Percent Error
Deviation for ∝ (Error)2
100(Error/Actual) for ∝ = .10
= .10
5.00 25.00 2.78
7.50 56.25 4.46
15.75 248.06 9.91
1.82 3.33 1.04
16.64 276.97 8.76
29.98 898.70 14.62
1.98 3.92 1.10
3.78 14.31 2.08
44.75
MAPE) 5.59
 Absolute
Forecast with ∝ = .50 Deviation for ∝ (Error)2
= .50
175.00 5.00 25.00
177.50 9.50 90.25
172.75 13.75 189.06
165.88 9.13 83.27
170.44 19.56 382.69
180.22 24.78 614.11
192.61 12.61 159.00
186.30 4.30 18.53
 Absolute Percent Error
100(Error/Actual) for ∝ = .50

2.78
5.65
8.65
5.21
10.30
12.09
7.01
2.37
54.05
6.76
 ∝ ∝
0.10 0.50

Actual Tonnage
Quarter Forecast |Error| Error2 APE
Unloaded

1 180
2 168 180.00 12.00 144.00 7.14
3 159 106.8 52.20 2724.84 32.83
4 175 69.3 105.70 11172.49 60.40
5 190 52.15 137.85 19002.62 72.55
6 205 45.075 159.93 25576.01 78.01
7 180 43.0375 136.96 18758.73 76.09
8 182 39.51875 142.48 20300.91 78.29
9 ? 37.959375
106.73 13954.23 57.90
MAD MSE MAPE