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Investors should be proactive and prepare for volatility in 2022. The coming
months will be dominated by decelerating economic growth, diverging central
bank policies and persistent inflation. At the same time, it’s critical to align with
the long-term trends – from lower-for-longer rates to the energy transition – that
are driving disruption and could offer opportunities for investors.
Value. Shared.
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
Exhibit 1: will the turnaround in macro data cause investors to realign their portfolios?
Change in global economic momentum (2013-2021 YTD)
0.50
0.40
Month-over-month chnage (%)
0.30
0.20 Improving macro data
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
Deterioriating macro data
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
– Appreciating China. The world’s second-largest economy “tighten” too much. They have become more comfortable
is in the midst of an unparalleled strategic transformation, with higher inflation and are allowing it to outpace their
and it’s important not to lose sight of that even as rate increases. In monetary policy-speak, they are “behind
economic growth slows and regulatory clampdowns the curve”. Given today’s high private and public sector
impact certain sectors. Volatility will continue to be a debt levels, they are also aware that if they were to pull
hallmark of investing in China, but we remain convinced back on the monetary reins too hard, they could risk
of the long-term investment case. Those who understand triggering defaults.
China’s wider political context and strategy – and navigate This continued monetary support is one reason we expect
its markets actively – may be best-placed to avoid bumps higher inflation to last longer than the markets currently
in the road along the way. expect. And there are other long-term developments in
– Achieving sustainability. With the global effort to the real economy that are at least marginally inflationary:
reach “net-zero” emissions within a few decades, how slowing international trade, higher labour compensation
can investors use their portfolios to have a positive and the fight against climate change are just a few. Rising
impact? Investor demand, fast-evolving regulations prices for CO2 certificates and the economic adjustments
and a deluge of data will raise the bar on what impact needed for a “green” economy will likely increase prices
investors can achieve – and how they can achieve it. It’s initially, even though they should benefit economic growth
a highly complex topic, involving disparate stakeholders and the planet over the long term (see Exhibit 2).
at different stages of their net-zero journeys. We
expect sustainability to be a disruptor for the older Exhibit 2: the fight against climate change will likely push
economy, as citizens around the world look to have a inflation higher in the near term
smaller ecological footprint while having a broader US, EU, China: change in inflation vs baseline for “net zero 2050” scenario
environmental and social “handprint”. 4
“Net Zero 2050” scenario-change
3 in inflation versus baseline
Navigating rates: reinforce portfolios
Percentage point change
2
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
But overall, the forces that have driven interest rates 3. Tap private markets
steadily towards zero over the past four decades are still Private markets may hold particular interest for institutional
at work, and we believe they will remain dominant for investors in this environment, where illiquidity premia are
some time (see Exhibit 3). Against this background, rates holding up well. They can offer various built-in hedges if
and yields seem likely to stay lower for longer overall. the recent rise in inflation becomes a longer-term trend.
Investors can also use private markets to seek financial
What it means for investors: consider fundamental
alpha while also improving the world in which we live.
changes for this fast-changing environment
This is particularly timely given the public and private
Given our view that interest rates are likely to stay lower sectors’ commitment to “build back better” in the wake
for longer – while inflation remains higher than it was in of the Covid-19 pandemic – for example, by investing in
the pre-Covid era – investors may want to rethink their education, healthcare or enhanced digital infrastructure.
asset allocations. Different approaches will likely be
needed to navigate diverging levels of growth and yield 4. Stay agile
potential. And it will be critical to be far more agile to Monetary and fiscal support is still high, though fading.
navigate an era when market conditions can shift quickly Growth and inflation data will likely remain much more
– and the potential for policy mistakes remains elevated. volatile than in past cycles, making predictions harder
Here are four ideas for the year ahead: to make. And growth may be increasingly driven by
“endogenous” (internal) factors such as consumption or
1. Use “barbells” high-tech advancement. In such an environment, scenarios
Higher central bank interest rates, reduced bond can change quickly. That means the optimum mix of
purchases and higher inflation will likely lead to weaker assets will naturally need to shift in response – all while
bond prices and rising yields. One way to approach this keeping exposure to riskier assets without taking on undue
is to view portfolios as “barbells” that span two groups levels of overall risk. This calls for a highly dynamic, active
of assets: those suited to preserving capital (including approach that can switch positions rapidly as economic
government bonds, credit, cash-like investments and conditions evolve.
liquid alternatives) and those designed to generate
capital growth and income (including emerging-market
Appreciating China: don’t be deterred
bonds, stocks and even private-markets assets). Investors
can target a variety of outcomes via multi-asset solutions by volatility
that combine elements from each group.
A critical factor to watch in 2022 is how much China – the
2. Think themes world’s second-largest economy – will continue to unnerve
Thematic investing offers the ability to diversify portfolios markets. Growth has undoubtedly slowed, and recent
while aligning with powerful, long-term social and regulatory issues have triggered market selloffs. But in
demographic shifts. Themes such as healthcare our view, these changes are part and parcel of investing
transformation and the embrace of digital technologies in China, and investors should seek to weather them
represent new sources of growth and yield potential – over the long term. More immediately, there is plenty
which traditional classifications by sector or region may miss. of good news out of China. Its banking sector is robust,
The UN Sustainable Development Goals provide a helpful its government is committed to strengthening its “seat
“window into the future” to identify companies that are at the table” in the global economy and the country is
addressing these opportunities. financed to only a small extent from abroad. China’s
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg, Allianz Global Investors. Data as at June 2021.
3
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
4
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
What it means for investors: broaden your thinking as inequality falls (see Exhibit 5). Meanwhile, green
and focus on impact investments may be able to provide the attractive
Don’t relegate sustainable investing to one portion yield potential that will be vital in today’s low-interest-
of a portfolio. It is increasingly integral to a successful rate environment.
investment strategy. Consider, for example, how
As the world addresses these critical issues, we expect to see
sustainability crosses over to our two other primary
a broader notion of “impact” come to the fore – including
investment themes for 2022:
how companies are managing their ecological footprint in
– China has a huge role to play as the world seeks to addition to their broader social handprint. Investors should
reach net zero and implement energy solutions, so rightly push for this expanded view of business success.
it’s critical for the rest of the world to understand Moreover, meeting these critical sustainability goals will
China’s journey – and engage with it. require large amounts of financing, which is why we expect
– The “greening” of the economy will likely add to all asset classes (including public and private) in all regions
inflationary pressures in the medium term – even to be increasingly aligned with impact investing.
Lower inequality/
higher inflation 8%
23%
6%
28%
4%
33%
Higher inequality/ 2%
lower inflation
38% 0%
1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
Wealth (share of top 1%) CPI core year over year (5-year moving average, right axis)
Source: World Inequality Database, Bloomberg. Data as at 2019.
5
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
Amid low yields, look for proactive central banks and “green” bonds
By Franck Dixmier, Global CIO Fixed Income
While the global economy is set to remain in expansionary territory in 2022, we recognise that the initial
impressive economic growth rates achieved as economies reopened following the Covid lockdowns
will not be sustained. Central bank and government action since the onset of the pandemic has
significantly reduced some of the worst-case scenarios for the global economy, and dramatically diminished
the prospects of a credit crunch. The path of inflation over the next 12 months will have to be watched closely,
along with the way central banks react to these pressures.
Given that multiple factors indicate that interest rates will stay lower for even longer, rethinking portfolios
to account for this outlook should be an urgent priority for investors. Risk management and diversification
strategies must become far more agile. We are looking closely at selectively overweighting bonds from
emerging-market countries where central banks have been proactive in addressing inflation risks – as long as
valuations look attractive. In addition, global issuance of green, social and sustainability-linked (GSS) bonds
recently hit a record high – evidence of fixed-income investors growing increasingly serious about tackling
climate risks and social challenges.
Address low rates, high valuations and inflation with multi-asset strategies
By Greg Hirt, Global CIO Multi Asset
Growth and inflation data will likely remain much more volatile than in past cycles, making
predictions increasingly hard to make. That is why we will pay particularly close attention to the
potential for negative shocks, such as the risk of a new Covid-19 variant. But overall, we continue
to hold a cautiously optimistic view for 2022.
Equities and other risk assets should be partially supported by the tail end of the post-Covid global recovery, and
by cash-rich investors fighting off the effects of negative real (after-inflation) rates. Traditional fixed income may
be somewhat challenged, as inflation risks stay elevated and major central banks reduce their government-bond
purchases. As investors seek diversification against inflation risk, they may want to use a combination of commodities,
liquid alternatives and inflation-linked bonds. Overall, the current environment of low to negative interest rates, high
valuations and higher inflation might prove challenging for traditional asset classes. Multi-asset strategies that
offer exposure to a broad set of asset classes – and have the flexibility to take long and short positions – may help
investors address a wider range of risks.
6
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
As the year progresses, we will likely have answers to several critical questions around
sustainability and its impact on the economy:
– Will COP-26 prove to be a defining moment for net zero, how will countries finance and fulfil their pledges,
and how will their decisions affect economic growth?
– What could be the near and longer-term implications of the climate transition on inflation and the affordability
of goods?
– What surprises can we expect from increased scrutiny of the modern economic value chain, and can reporting
practices coalesce around clear standards?
The answers to these questions will add to the growing amount of data that investors need to embed into their
decisions, and it’s not yet clear whether this will be helpful or a hindrance. Moreover, as sustainability becomes
an increasingly essential factor in asset allocations, we may see more volatility and divergence in market
performance – which will be yet another input for investors to process. This foots back to what will make 2022
an important year for impact investing. As investors push for positive societal outcomes related to climate and
beyond, there will be a deluge of data on how those outcomes are scoped, measured and reported. Making this
information actionable will be a challenge, but one that will ultimately facilitate positive change for the planet.
7
2022 outlook: agility counts in a year of disruption and divergence
Allianz Global Investors is a leading active asset manager with over 700 investment
professionals in 23 offices worldwide and managing EUR 647 billion in assets.
We invest for the long term and seek to generate value for clients every step of the
way. We do this by being active – in how we partner with clients and anticipate their
changing needs, and build solutions based on capabilities across public and private
markets. Our focus on protecting and enhancing our clients’ assets leads naturally
to a commitment to sustainability to drive positive change. Our goal is to elevate the
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Active is: Allianz Global Investors
Data as at 30 September 2021
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