Name: A.

Rahitya Teja
Reg.No: 20BIT0296

Fault Tree Analysis:

Case study:

This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall
department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method.

Fault tree analysis is a method used to identify potential failures and their causes in complex
technical systems. It was first used in 1962 to study the safety of missile launch control
systems. This method involves breaking down the system into smaller components and
analyzing the relationships between them to determine how a failure in one component can
lead to a failure in the entire system.

To further promote safety, quantitative risk analysis approaches have been developed with
three modules: risk estimation, maintenance planning, and evaluation. These approaches aim
to minimize the probability and consequences of failures in terms of safety, economy, and the
environment. Overall, fault tree analysis and quantitative risk analysis are important tools in
ensuring the safety and reliability of complex technical systems.

Six basic steps used to develop a fault tree analysis:

1. System configuration understanding.
2. Logic model generation.
3. Qualitative evaluation of the logic model.
4. Equipment failure analysis and obtain basic data
5. Quantitative evaluation of the logic model
6. Recommended appropriate corrective actions
This is a failure tree representation for the case study:

The factory can be divided to six branches: mine, crushing and mixing bed hall, raw mill,
cement mill, burning (clinkerization process), and packing house departments in the first step.
This case study focused on crushing and mixing bed hall department. Other departments are
underdeveloped due to lack of relevant sufficient data. The above fig shows fault tree of
crushing and mixing bed hall department that are divided into crusher system, mixing bed
hall system and conveyor belt system. In addition, at the next level, several subsystems are
identified for each system. These systems and subsystems are connected to top event with
logic gate No. 1, 2 and 3. Finally, basic events are represented by codifying in circle symbols
at the last levels.

The above diagram can be enlarged by another level, e.g. the transfer symbol is considered
for stacker subsystem and can be developed it based on type of failure. Therefore, at this level
of fault tree analysis of the system the basic event will be based on type of failure in each
subsystem. In the case of excessive developments of FTA because of the sharp increase in the
calculations, excessive complexity of analysis, difficulties of data collection, and
management's attitude, there was no need to get into the details.
The Azarabadegan Khoy cement factory conducted a case study to address safety concerns
and spontaneous combustion issues. The analysis revealed that the conveyor belt No. 2
subsystem had the highest probability of failure during the first 200 hours, but the crusher
subsystem surpassed it after that period. Therefore, maintenance activities were
recommended for the crusher subsystem to reduce the probability of failure, which would
reduce the overall risk in the system. This approach involved the implementation of risk
control elements, such as modification to reduce the intensity and probability of failure. The
implementation of these measures would help to address the safety concerns and prevent
spontaneous combustion issues in the factory.

Event Tree Analysis in “Wild-Fire Risk Assessment for the City of Kelowna”

An event tree analysis (ETA) is an inductive procedure that shows all possible outcomes
resulting from an accidental (initiating) event, taking into account whether installed safety
barriers are functioning or not, and additional events and factors. By studying all relevant
accidental events (that have been identified by a preliminary hazard analysis, a HAZOP, or
some other technique), the ETA can be used to identify all potential accident scenarios and
sequences in a complex system. Design and procedural weaknesses can be identified, and
probabilities of the various outcomes from an accidental event can be determined.
The devastating inferno of the Okanagan Mountain Park Fire of 2003, which caused
significant damage to infrastructure, home, private properties and caused evacuation of
affected people from the City of Kelowna. Consequently, it raised the importance of
conducting a risk assessment for the City. This study focused on analyzing the existing risks
from wild fire, and the estimation of loss and damage with the help of proposed event tree
method for the City of Kelowna. Finally, the risky areas have been represented spatially with
the help of geographic information system (GIS) to provide a basis for an effective decision
making for the city. From the study, it was found that most of the areas (about 59%) of the
city of Kelowna fall under the medium risk category, whereas, 32% of the areas fall under
high risk category and only 9% of the total area falls under low risk category for the wild fire
hazard.

A risk assessment for fire hazard scenario has become imperative to develop an effective
emergency management plan for the city. Event tree diagrams can be considered as a very
efficient and effective tool in modern risk analysis and emergency management schemes. The
whole scenario of an identified risk and its respective preventive and mitigation barriers can
very effectively be presented graphically in event tree analysis.

For the fire hazard risk assessment, GIS was used to map the whole Kelowna city in different
layers, e.g. historical fire occurrences, location of existing fire stations, existing fire hydrant
locations, accessibility of the areas (i.e. road networks), sensitive areas etc. Finally, with
overlapping all the layers, the risky areas for fire hazard have been selected.. From the event
tree analysis, areas with low identification system and low community reaction are decided as
highly risky areas for wild fire, whereas, areas with better warning systems, with better fire
fighting capacities and fire hydrants have lower risk.
Fire Hazard Risk for the sample case study area:

The identified risky areas can be undergone to deeper level of vulnerability assessment. An
intensive vulnerability assessment may be conducted for the critical infrastructure as well.
Moreover, with the help of the generated scenario, guideline for developing a scenario-based
contingency plan can be proposed. This guideline can be validated with the real time case
study for the city of Kelowna, with the involvement of all the major stakeholders within the
city.