Previziunea vanzarilor

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

This spreadsheet was created by either POM, QM or POM-QM for Windows, V4.

Alpha 0.14
Data Error Analysis
Period Vanzari Media vz Forecast Error Absolute Squared
January 250 244.4167 250
February 245 244.4167 250 -5 5 25
March 237 244.4167 249.3 -12.3 12.3 151.29
April 235 244.4167 247.578 -12.578 12.578 158.206084
May 249 244.4167 245.8171 3.18292 3.18292 10.1309797264
June 260 244.4167 246.2627 13.7373112 13.737311 188.71371900565
July 245 244.4167 248.1859 -3.185912368 3.1859124 10.150037616575
August 234 244.4167 247.7399 -13.73988463648 13.739885 188.78442982378
September 241 244.4167 245.8163 -4.81630078737283 4.8163008 23.196753274448
October 249 244.4167 245.142 3.85798132285936 3.8579813 14.884019887532
November 236 244.4167 245.6821 -9.68213606234096 9.6821361 93.743758729683
December 252 244.4167 244.3266 7.67336298638676 7.673363 58.88049952085
Total -32.8506583449477 89.753809 922.98028158491
Average -2.98642348590434 8.1594372 83.907298325901
Bias MAD MSE
SE 10.126863513475
Next period 245.400908
Tabel centralizator

Luna Vanzari Media vz Prev cu alpha 0.3 Prev cu alpha 0.9

1 250 244.4167 250 250
2 245 244.4167 250 250
3 237 244.4167 248.5 245.5
4 235 244.4167 245.05 237.85
5 249 244.4167 242.035 235.285
6 260 244.4167 244.1245 247.6285
7 245 244.4167 248.88715 258.76285
8 234 244.4167 247.721005 246.376285
9 241 244.4167 243.6047035 235.2376285
10 249 244.4167 242.82329245 240.42376285
11 236 244.4167 244.676304715 248.142376285
12 252 244.4167 242.0734133005 237.2142376285
13 245.05138931035 250.52142376285
 Forecasting
270
260
250 Vanzari

Value
240 Forecast
230
|% Error| 220
1 3 5 7 9 11
0.0204081632653061 Time
0.0518987341772152
0.0535234042553192
0.0127828112449799
0.0528358123076923
0.0130037239510204
Reprezentarea grafica a mediilor vanzarilor
265
0.0587174557114531 260
0.0199846505700117 255
0.0154939008950175 250
0.0410260002641566 245
0.0304498531205824 240
0.370124509762754 235
0.0336476827057049 230
MAPE 225
220
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Vanzari Media vz

prev cu alpha optim

250 Previziunea Hatz |Gioonule
250
265
249.29999999702
260
247.577999990106 255
245.817079983994 250
246.262688788132 245
248.185912365981 240
247.739884632845 235
245.816300776057 230
245.142018664538 225
245.682136053803 220
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
244.326637000499
245.400907831707 Vanzari Media vz Prev cu alpha 0.3
Column F Prev cu alpha 0.9 prev cu alpha optim
 Vanzari
Forecast

mediilor vanzarilor

7 8 9 10 11 12

Media vz

onule

8 9 10 11 12

Prev cu alpha 0.3

prev cu alpha optim