Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1 Jan-21 25
2 Feb-21 36 Demanda
3 Mar-21 46 80
4 Apr-21 51 70
5 May-21 56 60
6 Jun-21 64 50
Demanda
7 Jul-21 32 40
8 Aug-21 52 30
9 Sep-21 73
20
10 Oct-21 36
10
11 Nov-21 53
0
12 Dec-21 75 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-
13 Jan-22 20
Meses
14 Feb-22 33
15 Mar-22 43
16 Apr-22 45
17 May-22 47
18 Jun-22 52 Análisis del comportamiento de la demanda:
19 Jul-22 27
20 Aug-22 48
21 Sep-22 70
22 Oct-22 31
23 Nov-22 49
24 Dec-22 60
nda
Demanda
30
Quincena 7 56 20
Quincena 8 61 10
0
Quincena 9 63 0) 5 9 13 17 21 1) 5 9 13 17 21 2) 5 9 13 17 21
02 na na a a a 02 na na a a a 02 na na a a a
Quincena 10 59 (2 nce nce cen cen cen (2 nce nce cen cen cen (2 nce nce cen cen cen
1 i i 1 i i 1 i i
a u u uin uin uin a u u uin uin uin a u u uin uin uin
Quincena 11 58 cen Q Q Q Q Q cen Q Q Q Q Q cen Q Q Q Q Q
in in in
Quincena 12 70 Qu Qu Qu
Quincena 13 71 Quincenas
Quincena 14 38
Quincena 15 41
Quincena 16 46 Análisis del comportamiento de la demanda:
Quincena 17 48
Quincena 18 69
Quincena 19 73
Quincena 20 49
Quincena 21 47
Quincena 22 58
Quincena 23 68
Quincena 24 35
Quincena 1 (2021) 41
Quincena 2 43
Quincena 3 46
Quincena 4 48
Quincena 5 51
Quincena 6 57
Quincena 7 59
Quincena 8 65
Quincena 9 66
Quincena 10 63
Quincena 11 61
Quincena 12 74
Quincena 13 74
Quincena 14 42
Quincena 15 45
Quincena 16 49
Quincena 17 52
Quincena 18 72
Quincena 19 77
Quincena 20 52
Quincena 21 51
Quincena 22 61
Quincena 23 72
Quincena 24 39
Quincena 1 (2022) 43
Quincena 2 46
Quincena 3 49
Quincena 4 50
Quincena 5 53
Quincena 6 60
Quincena 7 62
Quincena 8 67
Quincena 9 68
Quincena 10 66
Quincena 11 64
Quincena 12 76
Quincena 13 76
Quincena 14 45
Quincena 15 48
Quincena 16 52
Quincena 17 56
Quincena 18 75
Quincena 19 79
Quincena 20 56
Quincena 21 53
Quincena 22 62
Quincena 23 73
Quincena 24 40
manda
5 9 3 7 1 ) 5 9 3 7 1
a a 1 1 2 22 a a 1 1 2
en cen ena ena ena (20 cen cen ena ena ena
in nc nc nc 1 in in nc nc nc
Qu Qui Qui Qui ena Qu Qu Qui Qui Qui
c
in
Qu
Quincenas
1ER. CRITERIO de PMS n = 15 1ER. CRITERIO de PMS n = 24
PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO
ERROR ERROR
REGISTRO DEMANDA DE LA ERROR DE LA ERROR
CUADRATICO CUADRATICO
DEMANDA DEMANDA
1 38 - -
2 39 - -
3 43 - -
4 44 - -
5 48 - -
6 53 - -
7 56 - -
8 61 - -
9 63 - -
10 59 - -
11 58 - -
12 70 - -
13 71 - -
14 38 - -
15 41 - -
16 46 52.13 -6.13 37.62 -
17 48 52.67 -4.67 21.78 -
18 69 53.27 15.73 247.54 -
19 73 55.00 18.00 324.00 -
20 49 56.93 -7.93 62.94 -
21 47 57.00 -10.00 100.00 -
22 58 56.60 1.40 1.96 -
23 68 56.73 11.27 126.94 -
24 35 57.20 -22.20 492.84 -
25 41 55.33 -14.33 205.44 53.13 -12.13 147.02
26 43 54.13 -11.13 123.95 53.25 -10.25 105.06
27 46 53.13 -7.13 50.88 53.42 -7.42 55.01
28 48 51.53 -3.53 12.48 53.54 -5.54 30.71
29 51 50.00 1.00 1.00 53.71 -2.71 7.34
30 57 50.87 6.13 37.62 53.83 3.17 10.03
31 59 51.93 7.07 49.94 54.00 5.00 25.00
32 65 52.80 12.20 148.84 54.13 10.88 118.27
33 66 53.93 12.07 145.60 54.29 11.71 137.09
34 63 53.73 9.27 85.87 54.42 8.58 73.67
35 61 53.07 7.93 62.94 54.58 6.42 41.17
36 74 53.87 20.13 405.35 54.71 19.29 372.17
37 74 55.67 18.33 336.11 54.88 19.13 365.77
38 42 56.73 -14.73 217.07 55.00 -13.00 169.00
39 45 55.00 -10.00 100.00 55.17 -10.17 103.36
40 49 55.67 -6.67 44.44 55.33 -6.33 40.11
41 52 56.20 -4.20 17.64 55.46 -3.46 11.96
42 72 56.80 15.20 231.04 55.63 16.38 268.14
43 77 58.53 18.47 341.02 55.75 21.25 451.56
44 52 60.47 -8.47 71.68 55.92 -3.92 15.34
45 51 60.53 -9.53 90.88 56.04 -5.04 25.42
46 61 60.13 0.87 0.75 56.21 4.79 22.96
47 72 60.27 11.73 137.67 56.33 15.67 245.44
48 39 60.73 -21.73 472.34 56.50 -17.50 306.25
49 43 58.93 -15.93 253.87 56.67 -13.67 186.78
50 46 57.60 -11.60 134.56 56.75 -10.75 115.56
51 49 56.60 -7.60 57.76 56.88 -7.88 62.02
52 50 54.93 -4.93 24.34 57.00 -7.00 49.00
53 53 53.33 -0.33 0.11 57.08 -4.08 16.67
54 60 54.07 5.93 35.20 57.17 2.83 8.03
55 62 55.07 6.93 48.07 57.29 4.71 22.17
56 67 55.93 11.07 122.47 57.42 9.58 91.84
57 68 56.93 11.07 122.47 57.50 10.50 110.25
58 66 56.67 9.33 87.11 57.58 8.42 70.84
59 64 55.93 8.07 65.07 57.71 6.29 39.59
60 76 56.73 19.27 371.20 57.83 18.17 330.03
61 76 58.40 17.60 309.76 57.92 18.08 327.01
62 45 59.40 -14.40 207.36 58.00 -13.00 169.00
63 48 57.60 -9.60 92.16 58.13 -10.13 102.52
64 52 58.20 -6.20 38.44 58.25 -6.25 39.06
65 56 58.80 -2.80 7.84 58.38 -2.38 5.64
66 75 59.47 15.53 241.28 58.54 16.46 270.88
67 79 61.20 17.80 316.84 58.67 20.33 413.44
68 56 63.13 -7.13 50.88 58.75 -2.75 7.56
69 53 63.33 -10.33 106.78 58.92 -5.92 35.01
70 62 62.87 -0.87 0.75 59.00 3.00 9.00
71 73 62.87 10.13 102.68 59.04 13.96 194.84
72 40 63.27 -23.27 541.34 59.08 -19.08 364.17
73 61.40 -61.40 3769.96 59.13 -59.13 3495.77
-19.27 371.20 15.13 228.77
205.42 197.64
1ER. CRITERIO de PMS n = 54
PRONOSTIC ERROR
O DE LA ERROR CUADRATIC
DEMANDA O
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
54.48 -5.48 30.03
54.70 -4.70 22.09
54.92 -1.92 3.69
55.12 4.88 23.81
55.44 6.56 43.03
55.72 11.28 127.24
56.00 12.00 144.00
56.24 9.76 95.26
56.34 7.66 58.68
56.36 19.64 385.73
56.70 19.30 372.49
57.06 -12.06 145.44
56.56 -8.56 73.27
56.10 -4.10 16.81
56.38 -0.38 0.14
56.68 18.32 335.62
57.26 21.74 472.63
57.88 -1.88 3.53
57.62 -4.62 21.34
57.22 4.78 22.85
57.48 15.52 240.87
58.00 -18.00 324.00
57.64 -57.64 3322.37
32.10 1030.41
273.26
Semana Demanda
1 1850
2 1855
3 1860
4 1845 Demanda
5 1855 1890
6 1860
1880
7 1850
8 1855 1870
9 1865 1860
Ventas
10 1875 1850
11 1860
1840
12 1855
13 1865 1830
14 1870 1820
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
15 1880
16 1875 Semana
17 1865
18 1860
19 1865 Análisis del comportamiento de la demanda:
20 1860
21 1875
22 1865
23 1860
24 1855
Demanda
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Semana
1ER. CRITERIO de PMS n = 7 1ER. CRITERIO de PMS n = 10
PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO
ERROR ERROR
REGISTRO DEMANDA DE LA ERROR DE LA ERROR
CUADRATICO CUADRATICO
DEMANDA DEMANDA
1 1850 - -
2 1855 - -
3 1860 - -
4 1845 - -
5 1855 - -
6 1860 - -
7 1850 - -
8 1855 1853.57 1.43 2.04 -
9 1865 1854.29 10.71 114.80 -
10 1875 1855.71 19.29 371.94 -
11 1860 1857.86 2.14 4.59 1857.00 3.00 9.00
12 1855 1860.00 -5.00 25.00 1858.00 -3.00 9.00
13 1865 1860.00 5.00 25.00 1858.00 7.00 49.00
14 1870 1860.71 9.29 86.22 1858.50 11.50 132.25
15 1880 1863.57 16.43 269.90 1861.00 19.00 361.00
16 1875 1867.14 7.86 61.73 1863.50 11.50 132.25
17 1865 1868.57 -3.57 12.76 1865.00 0.00 0.00
18 1860 1867.14 -7.14 51.02 1866.50 -6.50 42.25
19 1865 1867.14 -2.14 4.59 1867.00 -2.00 4.00
20 1860 1868.57 -8.57 73.47 1867.00 -7.00 49.00
21 1875 1867.86 7.14 51.02 1865.50 9.50 90.25
22 1865 1868.57 -3.57 12.76 1867.00 -2.00 4.00
23 1860 1866.43 -6.43 41.33 1868.00 -8.00 64.00
24 1855 1864.29 -9.29 86.22 1867.50 -12.50 156.25
25 1862.86 -1862.86 3470236.73 1866.00 -1866.00 3481956.00
-1829.29 3346286.22 -1845.50 3405870.25
192862.84 232203.88
1ER. CRITERIO de PMS n = 18
PRONOSTICO
ERROR
DE LA ERROR
CUADRATICO
DEMANDA
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3350.00 -1485.00 2205225.00
3351.50 -1491.50 2224572.25
3352.00 -1477.00 2181529.00
3353.50 -1488.50 2215632.25
3355.50 -1495.50 2236520.25
3356.00 -1501.00 2253001.00
3355.50 -3355.50 11259380.25
-12294.00 151142436.00
3510837.14
Conclusiones
Este proyecto me a ayudado en lo particular a poder resolver pronósticos que ayuden a las
empresas, este tipo de pronostico es optimo para las demandas aleatorias, este pronostico
pretende elijar eliminar el impacto de los elementos irregulares históricos, la desventaja en
este método para calcular el pronostico es que solo se puede calcular el pronostico siguiente
de los datos proporcionados.