Is Russia a power in Decline?

Its been one year since Russia invaded its little brother Ukraine in February 2022. No one thought that
Ukraine will survive more than two weeks against its mighty neighbour. As rockets rained against the
entire logistics of Ukrainian armed forces, USA suggested its president Volodomyr Zelesenky to quickly
leave the country as Russian forces can anytime reach its capital and take him either prisoner or
assassinate him.

A year on, Russia is still struggling to control even the russian majority areas of Eastern Ukraine. What
happened in between? Can one say that Ukraine has become too powerful or we can now talk about the
eventual Russian decline?

No statement is technically correct. Neither Ukraine has become too powerful nor Russia is in much
decline!

Ukraine has survived on the battlefield because of heavy support from its transatlantic allies. They have
supplied it alot of weapons, trainings and technology. Without this vital support Ukraine could not have
genuinely stood upto its mighty neighbour. The country has got more than $100 billion support in a
single year by its friendly countries. To compare, The entire budget of Pakistan's Armed Forces is $10
billion in a year. Means, in a single year, Ukraine has got more budget than the last 10 years combined
budget of Pakistan Armed Forces. This is a reason, why it has stood up but the question is, can
transatlantic countries maintain this soldiarity for another year? This is a matter to be left for the future.

Russia has not been able to achieve the desired results because of some mistakes and weaknesses. The
Russian leadership has committed mistakes since the start of the war while not properly addressing their
weaknesses.

First mistake, the Russian soldiers initially was not mentally prepared for the war. They were only
mobilized under the guise of military exercise. A sudden order for the invasion exposed them to hostile
neighbour without any proper preparation. On the contrary, Ukraine was preparing for such scenario for
a long time.
Another mistake was that they tried to circle Ukraine from all sides, dividing their resources in a
dengerous way. All their forces started feeling the heat of poor logistics as this strategy was developed
without coherent preparation. The divided units of Russian forces did not stand upto a ferocious
Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainians first gave them way and then started neutralising them in a very tactical
manner. This starved the Russian army from all positions and they started retreating from some of their
gains.

Third mistake was not using the airpower effectively. Russia is a very formidable airpower after USA &
China. But for some reasons, it didn't make the proper use of it. Russia showed air aggression only for
some days before its land forces entered the country. It could have used its airpower in a sustained
manner until it had neutralised all the critical infrastructure of Ukrainian armed forces and tookover the
control of Ukrainian airspace. This gave Ukraine a huge sigh of relief as they took their own positions to
engage russian land forces and neutralise the random attacks by Russian Air Force.

However apart from these mistakes, Russian stalemate is also due to some serious weaknesses in its
military.

The country has relied on old tactics of war! Making enemy bleed and ultimately succumb, this is what
they used against Napoleon and Hitler. But that was another case. They were great powers and had
invaded Russia. Ukraine is neither a great power, nor it has invaded the Russia. Russian military is
basically a defence force. It has always failed in aggression. They have lost the wars of aggression. In
1856 against Ottomans, in 1904-05 against Japan and in 1980s against Afghan Mujahideens. On the
contrary they have won the wars of defense, for example in 1812 by Napoleon or in 1942 by Hitler.

Before invading Ukraine, Russian leadership should have identified this perennial weakness in its armed
forces. Or atleast it could have arranged a false falg operation on its territory (Like India does against
Pakistan) before sending its forces to Ukraine so that it could have portrayed the war as defensive and
got an overwhelming response from its poeple taking benefits of all the elements of state power.

Another weakness is the outdated tactics of Russian soldiers. They fight a war like medieval armies.
World has grown too sophisticated. Russian military should develop some strategic sense of fighting.
Mass attacks by both the soldiers and their ammunition has long passed its days. Countries (especially
weaker) have learnt to absorb the mass aggression first and then counter strike. Pakistan has the same
strategy of absorbing the indian land forces attack first and let them penetrate deep inside the Pakistani
territory before counter striking and squeezing them from different strategic ways.
Russian soldiers also lack experience. They have not fought much wars in modern world. Their last great
war was against Chechen Revolt in 1990s (let aside the Georgian Operation) where Russian military had
suffered alot of problems. In fact, at some point they were at near defeat before they used
overwhelming military power. Still they were not able to control the chechans. At the end they used an
old chinese tactic of neutralising the enemy by making it a friend. They befriended and installed a
comrade Kadyrov family to control the autonomous republic. Alexander, the great, had also used this
same tactic when he was struggling to suppress Bactrian Revolt in Central Asia.

To sum up, Russia is still a great power. In past, it has won the wars and it has lost the wars. It always
depends on situations. Russia today, even if defeated in Ukraine, doesn't mean its power has declined. If
Nato or any other force tried to invade it, the entire balance of power can be radically shifted as
Russians have shown from time to time. It is the history of Russians since Rurik the great, they fight the
wars, they win, they lose, but they never get neutralised.