TO INVESTIGATE THE EFFECT OF IMPERVIOUSNESS ON

FLOWS AND FLOODS OF A RIVER

Session: 2017-2021

Project Advisor
ENGR. USMAN ALI

SUBMITTED BY

M. HASNAIN KHALIL (G.L) 2017-CIV-121

M. MOOSA ABID 2017-CIV-183
HASEEB BAHADAR 2017-CIV-120
M. ZUBAIR ALI 2017-CIV-136

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
LAHORE, PAKISTAN
TO INVESTIGATE THE EFFECT OF IMPERVIOUSNESS ON
FLOWS AND FLOODS OF A RIVER

Session: 2017-2021

GROUP MEMBERS

M. HASNAIN KHALIL (G.L) 2017-CIV-121

M. MOOSA ABID 2017-CIV-183
HASEEB BAHADAR 2017-CIV-120
M. ZUBAIR ALI 2017-CIV-136

INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

Engr. Usman Ali

Final year project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Degree of B.Sc. Civil Engineering

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
LAHORE, PAKISTAN
 Dedications
This report is specially dedicated to Hazarat Mohammad (PBUH) and all the people who
love and continuously struggle to live their lives according to the teachings and guidance
of our beloved Prophet Mohammad (PBUH).
 Acknowledgements
First and foremost, all praises for ALLAH Almighty, the Most Merciful and the ever
Beneficent Who gave the courage and wisdom to accomplish this task successfully. I
offer my humblest respects to our beloved PROPHET MUHAMMAD (peace be upon
him), who is forever a torch of guidance and knowledge for humankind.

We want to express our deepest gratitude and modest thanks to 0ur supervisor Engr.
Usman Ali and wish to articulate my appreciation and admiration to him whose
cooperation, intellectual guidance and professional assistance enabled us to accomplish
this task. We are thankful to him for many insightful conversations during the
development of the ideas in this thesis, and for constructive comments on the text.

We are thankful to Punjab Irrigation Department who provide us the rainfall and inflow
data of twenty years (2000-2020) for the Rawal Dam.

In the last, we are grateful to our family members and teachers for their continuous
support, prayers and encouragement which enlightened our ways to accomplish this task.
 ABSTRACT

Booming population causes more urbanized area, less percolation and more floods and
surface-runoff. This rapid increase in urbanization is clued to growing population owning
to the scientific development and control on fatal diseases. With increase in population,
most of the forest, agriculture land and barren has converted into residential area and
paved roads and foundation which has caused a lot of impervious areas. This rapid
increase in urbanization has increased peak floods and peak volumes of dams and
reservoirs. So, to assess the priority of dams and other hydraulic structures it is very
essential to find how much urbanization in increasing and how much it affects the inflows
and peak floods. So, we can determine the spillway capacity and maintenance and
operations of our hydraulic structures.

An attempt has been made to assess the effect of future and present imperviousness over
the watershed of the Rawal lake with reference to change in flows and peak floods of
dams. To simulate the precipitation runoff with actual catchment inflows, HEC-HMS
(Hydrologic Engineering Center’s-Hydrologic Modeling System) is used, input data was
the precipitation data and observed flows of dam which we used to calibrate the model.
The model of our catchment area is calibrated for year 2013. Model is validated for 2006
and 2015 for high and low flow years. The results of simulated and observed flows were
quite close to each other. The calibrated HEC-HMS model is applied for the future
urbanization scenarios to assess the potential urbanization impacts on flows and peak
floods at the dam. The results for the next 20 years showed that the future urbanization is
expected to increase by 5.37% that would cause 6.15% increase in urbanized area which
will increase mean annual flows by 6.22 % and 11.72% increase in the flood at the dam.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1
1.1. PROBLEM STATEMENT ................................................................................... 2
1.2. STUDY AREA ...................................................................................................... 3
1.3. OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH ........................................................................... 3
1.4. BRIEF APPROACH ............................................................................................. 4
1.5. NEED OF STUDY ................................................................................................ 4
1.6. SCOPE OF STUDY .............................................................................................. 5
1.7. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS ............................................................... 5
1.8. THESIS OUTLINE ............................................................................................... 5

LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................. 6

2.1. POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION .......................................... 7
2.2. HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING ...................................................................... 9
2.2.1. Hydrological Models ..................................................................................... 9
2.2.2. The she Models .............................................................................................. 9
2.3. MODEL COMPONENTS................................................................................... 10
2.3.1. Basic Model Components: ........................................................................... 10
2.3.2. Metrological Model: .................................................................................... 11
2.3.3. Control specification component: ................................................................ 11
2.3.4. Input Data components: ............................................................................... 11
2.4. CAPABILITIES OF HEC-HMS ......................................................................... 12
2.4.1. Physical description of a watershed ............................................................. 12
2.4.2. Hydrologic simulation: ................................................................................ 12
2.4.3. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number ................................................... 14
2.4.4. Direct Runoff: Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph ....................... 14
2.4.5. Baseflow: The Recession Model ................................................................. 15
2.5. POPULATION PROJECTION METHODS: ..................................................... 15
2.5.1. Arithmetic growth rate method: ................................................................... 15
2.5.2. Geometric growth method ........................................................................... 15
2.5.3. Compound growth rate method ................................................................... 16
2.5.4. Logistic method: .......................................................................................... 16

METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 17
 3.1. INTRODUCTION:.............................................................................................. 18
3.2. DATA COLLECTION:....................................................................................... 18
3.2.1. Rainfall data: ................................................................................................ 18
3.2.2. Flow data:..................................................................................................... 18
3.2.3. Landsat’s data: ............................................................................................. 18
3.2.4. Population data: ........................................................................................... 18
3.3. DATA ANALYSIS: ............................................................................................ 19
3.3.1. Analysis of Rainfall Data ............................................................................. 19
3.3.2. Analysis of flow data ................................................................................... 20
3.4. FUTURE URBANIZATION MODEL: .............................................................. 22
3.4.1. Approach: ..................................................................................................... 22
3.4.2. Population vs Time: ..................................................................................... 22
3.4.3. Population vs Urbanized Area: .................................................................... 23
3.4.4. Future Population projection: ...................................................................... 24
3.5. FUTURE URBANIZED AREA: ........................................................................ 25
3.6. SETTING UP OF HEC-HMS MODEL .............................................................. 26
3.6.1. Input Data Preparation ................................................................................. 26
3.6.2. Model Calibration ........................................................................................ 26
3.6.3. Model Validation ......................................................................................... 27
3.6.4. Model Application ....................................................................................... 29
3.7. COMPARISON BETWEEN PAST AND PREDICTED FLOWS..................... 30
3.8. FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PAST AND PREDICTED FLOOD
DATA ............................................................................................................................. 31

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ................................................................ 32

4.1. GENERAL .......................................................................................................... 33
4.2. COMPARISON BETWEEN AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS .......................... 33
4.3. COMPARISON BETWEEN AVERAGE ANNUAL INFLOW VOLUMES .... 34
4.4. COMPARISON BETWEEN FLOOD DATA .................................................... 35
4.5. COMPARISON BETWEEN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS RESULTS 37

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................... 38

5.1. GENERAL .......................................................................................................... 39
5.2. LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES AND URBANIZATION IN
THE RAWAL LAKE CATCHMENT ........................................................................... 39
 5.3. DISCUSSIONS ................................................................................................... 39
5.4. RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................... 40

REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 41
 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.2.1: Rawal Dam Spillway Side .............................................................................. 3
Figure 1.3.1: Catchment of Rawal Dam .............................................................................. 4
Figure 1.3.2: Google Map Location of Rawal Dam ............................................................ 4
Figure 2.1.1: World Urban and Rural Population, 1950-2030 ............................................ 8
Figure 2.1.2: Projected Growth of Urban Population in Pakistan with Base Year 2005 ..... 9
Figure 2.3.1: Catchment Water Cycle................................................................................ 11
Figure 2.4.1: Basic Model in HEC-HMS........................................................................... 12
Figure 2.4.2: A Typical Output Hydrograph ..................................................................... 13
Figure 2.4.3: Global Summer Table .................................................................................. 13
Figure 3.3.1: Comparison of Rainfall Data for Islamabad ................................................. 19
Figure 3.3.2: Comparison of Annual Rainfall at Islamabad .............................................. 20
Figure 3.3.3: Average Annual Flows at Rawal Dam ......................................................... 21
Figure 3.3.4: Annual Volume at Rawal Dam .................................................................... 21
Figure 3.3.5: Cum. Mean Annual Rainfall at Islamabad ................................................... 21
Figure 3.4.1: Main Approach for Future Urbanization Model .......................................... 22
Figure 3.4.2: Population vs Time Plot ............................................................................... 23
Figure 3.4.3: Population vs Urbanized Area Plot .............................................................. 23
Figure 3.4.4: Selection of Suitable Method for Population Projection .............................. 25
Figure 3.6.1: Model Calibration for year 2013 .................................................................. 27
Figure 3.6.2: Model Validation for Year 2006 .................................................................. 28
Figure 3.6.3: Model Validation for Year 2001 .................................................................. 28
Figure 3.6.4: Model Validation for Year 2012 .................................................................. 28
Figure 3.6.5: Model Validation for Year 2015 .................................................................. 29
Figure 3.6.6: Model Validation for Year 2020 .................................................................. 29
Figure 3.6.7: Model Validation for Year 2030 .................................................................. 30
Figure 3.6.8: Model Validation for Year 2038 .................................................................. 30
Figure 4.2.1: Comparison of Predicted and Observed Annua Average Flows .................. 34
Figure 4.3.1: Comparison of Predicted and Observed Average Annual Volumes ............ 35
Figure 4.4.1: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Average Peak Flows ..................... 36
 LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.2.1: Population of Islamabad ................................................................................ 18
Table 3.4.1: Estimated Urbanized Area ............................................................................. 24
Table 3.4.2: Estimated Population using Various Models ................................................. 24
Table 3.5.1: Future Population and Corresponding Urbanized Area................................. 26
Table 3.6.1: Results of Model Calibration and Validation ................................................ 27
Table 3.8.1: Flood Frequency Analysis for Past Flood Data ............................................. 31
Table 3.8.2: Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Flood Data .......................................... 31
Table 4.2.1: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Average Annual Flows .................. 33
Table 4.4.1: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Flood Data ..................................... 35
Table 4.5.1: Results of Flood Frequency Analysis ............................................................ 37
 SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS
Symbol Representation

HEC-HMS Hydraulic Engineering Center Hydraulic Modeling System

UNO United Nation Organization

GIS Geographic Information System

SCS Soil Conservation Service

CN Curve Number

Pf Future Population

Pi Present Population

Tf Final Year

Ti Present Year

K Growth Rate Constant

n number of intermediate years

R Compound Growth Rate

X Random hydrological series

XT Variate of X

N Sample Size

𝜕𝑛−1 Standard Deviation

yT Reduced Variate

𝑆𝑛 Reduced Standard Deviation

𝐶𝑠 Coefficient of skewness

DEM Digital Elevation Model

𝑇𝑐 Time of Concentration

𝐶𝑝 Peak Flow Coefficient

I𝑎 Initial Abstraction
 Chapter No. 1

INTRODUCTION

Page | 1
 Introduction

The world population is concentrated in urban centers where rapid expansion is one of the
critical factors in damaging their streams and watershed. Increasing impervious surface
are causing intensified storm water runoff within urban water shed. Storm water runoff in
urban streams effects flood peaks and destabilized water channel.
To estimate imperviousness effect on inflows and design floods, there are two general
resources which are the history record and hydrological modeling simulation results.
Previous research relate urbanization with the frequency and magnitude of flooding
through the measurements from rainfall gauge station. More recently, adverse non
stationary hydrological models have been applied to demonstrate that imperviousness has
statistical effects on the frequency and magnitude of the peak flows and floods on the
catchment area.
Bradstreet al et. (2006) employed a hydrological modeling system directed the combined
model to simulate the design discharge over the watersheds in various impervious levels
and formulated a couple of relationships between the earth cover and peak flows under
varying rainfall or precipitation events.
Benasik and Pham’s studied the flood hydrographs for varying earth cover and the
impervious conditions for different times were simulated using a precipitation surface-
runoff models, peak flows and floods for varying earth cover uses. Hauge (2016) try to
simulate the impervious area and different earth cover levels for the few years in
maximum flood scenario to the hydrological model.
Pakistan is a populous country and having impervious problems particularly in the
important cities e.g., Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Karachi. The increase rate of
population is more concentrated in the cities than the rural areas of the country. Presently
near 37% of the population of the country is dwelling in the cities i.e., in urban area that is
estimated to increase more than half of total population in year 2050. This sharp
enhancement in the urban population has increased the need of housing societies,
infrastructure, industries, and roads for the last few years.

1.1. PROBLEM STATEMENT

There is a rapid increase in Islamabad population, especially after it has become the
capital of Pakistan in 1959. This extensive population growth has resulted in changing the
forest land, crop land and vegetative area into paved roads and industrial which resulting
increase the urbanization of Rawal Dam catchment. This increase in urbanization over the
watershed has a certain impact on flows and peak floods.
This change is flows and floods require the change in reservoir operation and spillway
capacity. Hence there is a need to investigate the effect of changing impervious area on
inflows and peak floods for the Rawal Dam.

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 Introduction

1.2. STUDY AREA

Rawal Dam is a masonry dam that is constructed by Punjab Irrigation Department in 1961
under the supervision of water and power development authority (WAPDA) on Korang
River and it is 34.5 m high and 213.4 m long. It has completed in 1961 and then it has
handed over to Punjab irrigation department in 1967.
It’s major function was to supply water for irrigation purpose but with rapid growth in
urbanization of Islamabad, water demand increases and then the dam water was
connected to water supply system after getting require treatment.
Two canals off taking from the dam are left bank canal and right bank canals which
provide water for irrigation and domestic purpose.
The Rawal Dam has an ogee type spillway which is a gated structure build up with the
reinforced cement concrete having the capacity of 2300 m3/s discharge. Its surface area is
8.9 km2 with 58.64*106 m3 storage capacity. It has a drainage area of about 275km2 which
mainly covers Islamabad territory is divided into five different zones.
Zone 1 consists of developed sectors covering an area of 223 km2, while zone 2
comprises of underdeveloped residential sectors covering 40 km2 area. Margalla hills and
national parks are situated in zone 3 that is about 487km2.

Figure 1.2.1: Rawal Dam Spillway Side

1.3. OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH

These are the two objectives of the study.

• To investigate the effect of future imperviousness on the flows and floods of the
Rawal Dam
• To study the increase in design floods magnitude due to imperviousness.

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 Introduction

Figure 1.3.1: Catchment of Rawal Dam

Figure 1.3.2: Google Map Location of Rawal Dam

1.4. BRIEF APPROACH

We have the current population and record of previous 30 years population and
imperviousness area of attachment. We correlate the population with time and
urbanization with time so indirectly we can correlate the population with the urbanization.
After correlating we can forecast the future population by using any projected method like
Arithmetic growth method, geometric growth method etc.
After finding the future population, we can find the future urbanization by the relation
which we formulate for the past data. The impact of this urbanization can be analyzed by
analyzing the change in inflows and floods at the dam using HEC-HMS solution.

1.5. NEED OF STUDY

After the Islamabad has declared as capital of Pakistan, there is a rapid increase in houses,
industries, pavements, and infrastructures which produce a lot of imperviousness area
resulting in increase of surface run-off and reduction in infiltration rates. This assumes as
enhancement in the floods and volumes of the Rawal Dam. Hence it is mandatory to
assess the effect of future urbanization on the floods and inflows of Rawal Dam, so we
can design and operate the dam and its spilling maximum efficiency.

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 Introduction

1.6. SCOPE OF STUDY

The results of urbanization are evaluated in terms of inflows and floods at the dam. The
calibration and validation of model was done with the past data and then observed flows
at outlets. The model was then utilized to estimate the future inflows and peak floods for
the next twenty years taking into consideration the future imperviousness predictions. The
future inflows and design floods were comparing with past data to estimate the overall
change due to imperviousness.

1.7. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS

Followings are assumptions and limitations in the current thesis.

1. Population data of Islamabad territory was utilized to develop a relation between
population growth rate and urbanization. This was due to the reason that most of
the area of Islamabad is situated in the catchment of Rawal dam (75%). Secondly
population data is areas of Islamabad present in catchment were evaluated for the
census year 1998 only.
2. Daily rainfall data was used from 2000-2021 and assuming that this data would
be recycling over the next decades.
3. Forecasting future urbanization is assumed that it would have same trend as in
the future.

1.8. THESIS OUTLINE

There are five chapters included in our research report which discuss in detail the
different aspects during the research.
4. The first chapter includes the introduction of the study area, needs and objectives
of the study, assumptions, and scope of the study.
5. Second chapter deals with the literature that has been done to have better
understanding of the nature of project, to know objective of the study, basic
understanding and parameters of modeling, methodology of research work and
become familiar with different terms that we would encounter during our project.
6. Third chapter includes the methodology of our research work. It describes the
data collection, analysis of the data (rainfall and inflow data), working of the
HEC-HMS modeling, calibration, and validation of the model. This also includes
the forecasting future population, correlating it with urbanization and then we
will use future imperviousness values to calculate inflows and peak discharges in
future.
7. Fourth chapter discuss in detail the results to explain the results of the study.
This chapter includes a comparison between past and future inflows to
quantifying the change in the imperviousness over the future few years.
8. Fifth chapter comprises of the conclusions and recommendations made from the
results of the study.

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 Literature Review

LITERATURE REVIEW

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 Literature Review

Literature review is an essential part of any research work. It helps in recognizing the
various terms that we will use in our research. It provides the methodology and approach
different people adopts to achieve the goal. In our study, there is focus on correlating the
future population and future urbanization, so we can use this data to find the impervious
effect on the floods. In second case we must assess the effect of future urbanized area in
terms of increase in inflows and floods at the Rawal Dam by applying HEC-HMS.

2.1. POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION

Imperviousness is the result of increase in the urbanized areas due to rapid growth in
population. Population is concentrated in cities and towns. Department of Economics and
social affairs of the United Nations state that population is chiefly concentrated in urban
areas. In Asia, it is estimated that more than half of population will be in cities.
United Nations studies reveals that the world population increases by 35% over the next
fourth years. It is expected that urban population would become greater than 72% of
present. As the global absorbing all population and drawing some population from rural
areas as well. Pakistan is a populous country having almost 170 million as per 1998
census. It is fast emerging as an urban society with 37% of the population which is twice
as compared with total population in 1956, and by the 2050, urban population would
cross 50% of the total population.
Population projections reveal that urbanization, the gradual switch in dwelling of the
human population from villages to cities, added to the overall increase of the world’s
population could add other 3 billion people to urban areas by 2060, with 90% of this
growth occurring in the continent of Asia and Africa, as per the new United Nations
studies launched presently.
World Urbanization Prospects is revised in 2018 developed by the Population Division of
the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) estimated that future
growth in the urban population of the world is expected to be more concentrated within
few cities.35% of the totral world population will be concentrated in the countries of
India, China and Nigeria between 2018 and 2050. India will have 417 million urban
people, China 254 million and Nigeria 190 million by the year 2050 as per the population
projected data.
The urban population of the world has grown rapidly from 751 million in 1950 to 4.2
billion in 2018. Asia, despite its relatively lower level of urbanization, is home to 54% of
the world’s urban population, followed by Europe and Africa with 13% each.
Currently the most populated regions are Northern America (with 83% of its total
population dwelling in cities by 2020), %), Europe (75%) and Oceania (67%), Latin
America and the Caribbean (80%). The urbanization in Asia is now close to 50%. In
opposite to it, continent Africa still have mostly rural population, with 40% of the total
population dwelling in urban areas

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 Literature Review

There is a rapid increase in the world urban population from 750 million in 1945 to 4.5
billion in 2019. Asia is having 55% of the world’s urban population, Europe, and Africa
with 15% each following Asia.

Figure 2.1.1: World Urban and Rural Population, 1950-2030

Following are the important points regarding urbanization:

1. Presently, more than 2.5 billion people are living in the rural.
2. Rural population concentration is very high in most of the under-developed parts
of the world. Standards of the life, although improving, remain still very low. It
is very unpredictable whether the increasing population will develop improved
agricultural development -contrarily it may have worse effects to the
development of many non-urban areas.
3. In under-develop countries increasing rural population will make it difficult to
stop the migration of people from rural areas to the cities. Other important point
to remember is that the birth rates of the rural areas are more than urban rates.
4. The difference between the number of deaths and the number of births of the
rural areas i.e., natural growth is more than the 1.5% rate given here - often more
than twice. The difference is the number of migrants to the cities.
5. In contrary to the rest of the under-develop world, for most of continent of Africa
there will be an increase in the rural population that will continue well into the
next century. Population concentration in Africa is generally lower than in Asia.
6. Islamabad, capital of Pakistan has a population of 1.20 million. Population
census data of 1981 and 1998 shows that there has been 135% increase in
population of Islamabad city with the average annual growth rate of 5.3%. At the
same time urban growth rate was estimated to be 10.5%. This rapid urban growth
rate increases the impervious area.

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 Literature Review

Figure 2.1.2: Projected Growth of Urban Population in Pakistan with Base Year 2005

2.2. HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING

Different hydrological processes take place over the watershed area like rainfall and other
precipitation, surfacing, infiltration, base flow, evaporation etc. hydrological Modeling
includes the simulation or modeling of the catchment area under their physical
phenomenon.

2.2.1. Hydrological Models

It is a set of mathematical operations that simulate the rainfall data and produce the results
in the form of hydrographs. Various hydrographic methods are described below.

2.2.2. The she Models

The system hydrologic European provide capabilities for the simulation of one or more
catchments in a gridded modeling system from minor experiments areas to whole
catchment basin. It is a distributed model and distributes the area into small grids or
rectangles to some reach which are located on the hill slope of the catchment area. The
distributed elements are divided into two directional range and ground water
compartments. The inner boundary conditions allow the surface flows and deep
percolation into unsaturated zone.

2.2.2.1. IHDM
The institute of hydrology distributed model discriminate the catchment into hill slope
planes. The model assumes no internal flow boundaries between adjacent hill slopes
planes. The watershed model of the study area is made by a network of hill slope grids
and channel parts by assigning them as group of integer value with one variable value for
each part like basin 1, reach 1, joint 1, reservoir 1. Over flow is produced on the complete
length of the hill slope areas satisfy the soil and moisture relationships.

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 Literature Review

2.2.2.2. TOPNET
Topnet is a hydrological model which is used to simulate a variety of hydrological
processes naturally taking place over a watershed and generate a hydrological at the outlet
of watershed and generate a hydrograph at the outlet of watershed. The model made use
of digital elevation model (DEM) to produce elevation parameter for a specific watershed.
The model distributes the surface-runoff and soil moisture deficiencies over the watershed
depending upon the elevation index and weighing after calculating the water balance at
the sub-basin level.

2.2.2.3. HEC-HMS
HEC-HMS is hydrological modelling system used for the simulation of the rainfall runoff
processes of water shed system. It is developed in a variety of hydrological areas for
solving a broad variety of problems. The model consists of large river basin water supply
and flood hydrology to small urban basin surface-runoff. Hydrographs generated by the
simulation can be used directly as well as with other systems for studies of water
availabilities, reservoir spillway design, urban drainage flow forecasting, etc.

2.3. MODEL COMPONENTS

These are the components used for the simulation of the hydrological event e.g., rainfall
in a basin. Basic components consist of basin model, metrological model, time series data,
control specifications and the input data components. A simulation calculated the rainfall
runoff response in the form of simulated runoff in the basin model given input from
hydrological model using time series data assigning the precipitation gauge to it. Time
series data, period data and gridded data are often used as parameter or boundary
conditions in basin or sub-basin and hydrological models.

2.3.1. Basic Model Components:

It is used to represents the physical catchment or basin. The user develops a basin model
by connecting and adding hydrological elements like reach, junction etc. Hydrological
elements are the models used for the description of physical processes in the catchment.

2.3.1.1. Sub Basin:

This element is used to represent physical watershed.

2.3.1.2. Reach:
It is the element used to carry river discharge downstream in basin model.

2.3.1.3. Junction:
This element is used to join river flow from hydrological elements located upstream
elements.

2.3.1.4. Source:
This is used to introduce flow into the basin model.

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 Literature Review

2.3.1.5. 2.3.1.5 Sink:

The sink element is used to represent outlet of the physical watershed.

2.3.1.6. Reservoir:
It is used to model the hydrograph caused by reservoir.

Figure 2.3.1: Catchment Water Cycle

2.3.2. Metrological Model:

The metrological model calculates the rainfall data in the form of input required by a sub-
basin element. The metrological model can utilize both concentrated and distributed
rainfall and possess the capacity to model with frozen type and liquid like rainfall along
with evapotranspiration. Snowmelt and evapotranspiration methods are included in the
metrological models. Shortwave, long wave methods are also included in the metrological
model for developing input data for snow melt and evapotranspiration.

2.3.3. Control specification component:

This component defines the time length of a simulation run. A starting times, ending time
and computation time interval is the information that is set into this component.

2.3.4. Input Data components:

Three types of data are included in this component including the time series data, paired
data, and gridded data. This type of data is often necessary as is boundary conditions in
watershed and metrological models for the computation run. This type of data can be put
either reference or manually to an already present data set in a HEC-HMS file.

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 Literature Review

2.4. CAPABILITIES OF HEC-HMS

Many capabilities are available in HEC-HMS software to carry out hydrological

simulation.

2.4.1. Physical description of a watershed

Catchment area is generally represented by different hydrologic components such as
subbasin, reach, junction, reservoir, outlet, sink etc. Number of options are available to
calculate surface runoff like synder unit hydrograph, Clark unit hydrograph and mud
Clark method etc. Linear reservoir method, exponential recession method and constantly
monthly method etc. are used for the computation of the contribution of the base flow to
surface runoff. Hydrological routing method like Muskingum methods are present in the
model to simulate runoff in open channels like rivers.

Figure 2.4.1: Basic Model in HEC-HMS

2.4.2. Hydrologic simulation:

After defining the control specification including start time and end time and time interval
hydrologic simulation is started. This is done by creating a simulation run (a colored sun
like shape appears) by combining all the defined components like basin model,
metrological model, and control specifications. Results can be seen in the form of global
summary, hydrograph, and summary table.

2.4.2.1. Parameter estimation:

We put input data into precipitation gage and assign this gauge to the sub basin. Then we
enter the flow data through discharge gauges. We run simulation and obtain the results
after assigning the discharge gauge to the outlet of the basin. We observe the difference
between these two discharges (simulated and observed) and see the difference. Then we
change different parameters like SCS curve number, initial abstraction, time to peak etc.
one this approach to permissible values, we assume it to be calibrated and then we
validate it for through other years like maximum, minimum and average discharges.

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 Literature Review

Figure 2.4.2: A Typical Output Hydrograph

Figure 2.4.3: Global Summer Table

Boyx feng, Ving Zhing and Bonrthe method use of the HEC-HMS model to develop
relation between impervious area and floods thy found a nonlinear relationship between
the surface simulated flow rate and percentages impervious area. The found that although
surface runoff is largely dependent upon precipitation data, but the hydrograph is also
governed by both percentages impervious area and spatial distribution of land use, but
one of them, which from their results seem to be impervious surface area percentages has
more impact than other.
Junc du, Linlin Chey and Yumeng Yandf used 2010 land use data and weather data to
mimic eight flood events in the 2002-2010 estimation period. It shows good harmony
between the predicted and observed hydrographs of all precipitations. According to Nash
and Sutcliffe when the efficiency index is above 0.7, the simulation results are reliable.
They showed that the minimum efficiency is 0.7 and the minimum efficiency is 0.93
percent errors which is a 25% indicator for most precipitation events

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 Literature Review

2.4.3. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number

SCS-CN is abbreviation of the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number which relies on
the soil types, cumulative precipitation, antecedent moisture and LULC. In this research,
we used this approach to find the excess precipitation:

𝑃 − 𝐼𝑎
𝑃𝑒 =
𝑃 + 𝐼𝑎

𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑃𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 are the excess rainfall and rainfall height, respectively, at any time t, S
is the potential maximum and Ia is the initial abstraction or loss. An empirical linear
relationship between Ia and S was formulated by the SCS, as

1
𝐼𝑎 =
4𝑆

. S is determined using the following equation (SI units).

25455
𝑆= − 346
𝐶𝑁

where CN is the SCS curve number, which is computed with respect to the type of the
watershed area consisting of the land cover, land use, past catchment levels and soil type.
CN number differ from 130 for river to 30 for pervious soils. CN number is one of the
important parameters used to represent the imperviousness conditions. To calculate the
CN values of the watershed area, the land cover and earth cover were laid using HEC-
GeoHMS tools in ArcGIS tool. CN is utilized in the current research, and it is relying on
the table provided by the SCS research ‘‘Urbanization Society of Hydrology for Small
Catchments’’ and the research of Yuan (2003) in Shenzhen, China. Urbanized area,
quantified by the impervious surface ratio (ISR)—the portion of an area that is covered by
impervious surfaces—is the other parameter used to show the urbanization level, and was
taken from Landsat TM images. Impervious surfaces can be explained by low and high
albedo endmembers.

2.4.4. Direct Runoff: Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph

The Soil conservation system Unit Hydrograph (SCS-UH) model is utilized applied to
calculate the flows or discharge for the given rainfall event. The Soil conservation system
Unit Hydrograph model relies on the mean UH acquired from measured precipitation and
flows in several small agricultural watershed areas throughout the United States:

𝐶𝐴
𝑈𝑝 =
𝑇𝑝

where A denotes the watershed area, C represents the value constant of conservation (3.05
in the SI system), Up is the UH peak discharge, Tp is peak UH time, and t lag is the
catchment lag time, that is, the time delay between observing the center of the mass of
rainfall and the peak flows of the UH.

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 Literature Review

2.4.5. Baseflow: The Recession Model

This model is applied in the study to show the percolation phenomenon from natural
storage in a watershed. Assigning the parameters for the baseflow in flood studies is
crucial as it assigns the minimum catchment height at which excess surface-runoff get
collected. The formula is used to formulate a relation among baseflow Qt at t to an
absolute value Qo can be formulated as follows

𝑄𝑡 = 𝑄𝑜 ×kt

where Qo denotes the value of the baseflow (at t = 0) and k is a constant of exponential
recession. The initial discharge which initiates after the land peak flows and discharge,
may be specified as a discharge to the estimated peak flow when the recession model is
applied.

2.5. POPULATION PROJECTION METHODS:

There are various methods for future population fore casting. The method we must select
depends upon the growth rate of the areas, development rate and some new discovery. We
will discuss one by one in the following paragraphs.

2.5.1. Arithmetic growth rate method:

This method is suitable for under develop and low type villages and towns in which the is
a constant rate is increase of population each year. This technique is designed based on an
assumption that the growth rate is constant. So, a same people will be added each year to
the current population of an area. This approach has a very restricted application and is
mostly useful for old and big cities (Steel et al., 1992). The mathematical formula is
present in equation below.

𝑃𝑓 = 𝑃𝑖 + 𝐾(𝑇𝑓 − 𝑇𝑖

Where, Pf is used to represent population in future or in year Tf, Po is showing the current
population, to is denoting the current year, tf is future year when population prediction is
required, and K is a growth rate constant.

2.5.2. Geometric growth method

This approach is appropriate for big and large regions where there is appreciable
increment in growth rate. This technique is developed on the supposition that the rate of
population growth is proportional to the population of an area. Continually the population
increases as a combined interest and when the population data is organized at a time in a
small log paper it becomes a straight-line relationship. This method is widely used to
estimate the future population but should be used with caution as it can yield significant
results especially if the city is small in a rapidly growing sector (Steel et al., 1991). The
mathematical expression is given equally.

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 Literature Review

𝑃𝑓 = 𝑃𝑖𝑒 𝐾(𝑇𝑓−𝑇𝑖)

Where, Pf is future population in year Tf, Po is present population, to is present year, Tf is

future year when population forecast is required and K.

2.5.3. COMPOUND GROWTH RATE METHOD

This technique is a little modified version of simple growth rate method. It computes the
compound rate of population growth based on the formula given in equation

𝑃𝑛 1
𝑅=( )𝑛
𝑃𝑜

Where is R is Compound rate of growth

2.5.4. Logistic method:

For a city, town, area initially population increase in if touches a saturation point. There is
enough space for further growths. After that the increasing in population in minimum and
the population is said to be stabilized. Such city, town, area. Logistic method is used for
the population forecasting.

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 Chapter No. 3

METHODOLOGY

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 Methodology

3.1. INTRODUCTION:

Every research work has a worth plan which is generally followed from start to end. This
chapter will describe the step-by-step progress of the project starting from data, collection
then analysis of data, adequacy of data, setting up of HEC-HMS model calibration and
validation and application of model for future urbanization condition.

3.2. DATA COLLECTION:

To select appropriate data some relevant source is an essential step of any research work.
Following in the data collected for the different sources.

3.2.1. Rainfall data:

Rainfall data of twenty years was collected from irrigation department at Rawal dam. It
includes data from 2000 to 2020 on daily basis.

3.2.2. Flow data:

Daily inflow data of twenty years from 2000-2020 was collected from irrigation
department Rawal dam. The flow data is measured in acre-feet. The discharge at the dam
is measured by determining the change in reservoir storage over the desired interval of
time.

3.2.3. Landsat’s data:

It is image of the study area were downloaded from the website. There images were freely
available for the required years.

3.2.4. Population data:

Population of capital of Pakistan, Islamabad for different census was obtained from the
Pakistan census.

Table 3.2.1: Population of Islamabad

Year Population

1951 95940

1961 117669

1972 237549

1981 340286

1998 805235

2017 139253

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 Methodology

3.3. DATA ANALYSIS:

Analysis of rainfall and flow data was carried out to see the variation in the rainfall and
inflows for the past two decades 2000-2021.

3.3.1. Analysis of Rainfall Data

Data of Rawal Dam was analyzed, and it was observed that minimum daily rainfall was
observed in the year 2012. Similarly, the maximum annual rainfall was observed.
The figures show the maximum daily rainfall occur in year 2001 that is nearly equal to
500mm. In the remaining years the maximum daily rainfall was in the range of 50 to 170
mm. So, there is no sharp fluctuation in the maximum rainfall data.

Figure 3.3.1: Comparison of Rainfall Data for Islamabad

The figure explains the variations of annual rainfall data of Rawal dam which also do not
show some sharp variations or deviations from other years annual rainfall data. The
annual rainfall in between 800mm and 1600mm with minimum in 2009 that is near to
600mm, and maximum annual rainfall occurred in year 2006 with a value of about
1700mm. The remaining years have annual rainfall values in between these two limits.

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 Methodology

Figure 3.3.2: Comparison of Annual Rainfall at Islamabad

3.3.2. Analysis of flow data

The flow data of Rawal Dam from 2000-2021 was analyzed in dams of average annual
flows, average inflows volumes and instantaneous peak flows in the year.
The figure shows the behavior of average annual flows at Rawal dam. The maximum
value of average annual flow occurs in the year 2006 in the same year in which the
maximum average annual rainfall was occurred which shows the consistency of the data.
The minimum value of average annual flow occurred in the year 2019 with a value of 4
cumecs. The remaining years have the average annual flows near to the average values
that is about 11.5 cumecs. The consistency of the data is analyzed with double curve mass
analysis which is presented in the curves given below.
The figure shows the variation annual flows at Rawal dam. The maximum flow value
occurs in the year 2014 that is about 625 cumecs. The minimum annual flow occurs in the
year 2019 with a value of 70 cumecs.
Double mass curve shows the rising behavior of cumulative mean annual flow data at
Rawal dam. The curve is above the standard line all along the graph.

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 Methodology

Figure 3.3.3: Average Annual Flows at Rawal Dam

Figure 3.3.4: Annual Volume at Rawal Dam

Figure 3.3.5: Cum. Mean Annual Rainfall at Islamabad

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 Methodology

3.4. FUTURE URBANIZATION MODEL:

The results of the image classification clearly show that there has been an increase in the
area built above the Rawal dam over the past two decades, but it is worrying how this
information could have been used in estimating the future urban area. This problem was
solved by building relationships between the future data of the people of Islamabad and
the area associated with the access point to the water. To achieve this goal, procedural
steps are followed.

3.4.1. Approach:
Approach is very simple. First, population is plotted against the time. After that the
population is plotted against the urbanized area and a relationship is built between the
time and urbanized area by comparing the above two graphs simultaneously. After
finding out the urbanized area it is modified because increment ratio will decrease
continuously with time. The reason is that the catchment area gets saturated with time and
saturation rate with time after attaining a certain saturation level. After finding out the
modified urbanized area it is multiplied with 0.7 because 70 percentage of total urbanized
area is supposed to be impervious and the remaining 30 percentage is considered as
consisting of parks and lawns that are comparatively pervious surfaces.

Figure 3.4.1: Main Approach for Future Urbanization Model

3.4.2. Population vs Time:

A graph is plotted between the population data of Islamabad and the relative years, and a
relation is formulated between the population of the capital city and time in years as
presented in the Figure 3.21. The developed equation is then used to forecast the
population for the next years. which is given in Table 3.4. The average annual growth rate
for the past twenty years has been 5.43 %

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 Methodology

Figure 3.4.2: Population vs Time Plot

3.4.3. Population vs Urbanized Area:

A graph is plotted between Population versus impervious area and an equation is obtained
from the curve. This formula is then used to estimate the impervious from 2000 to 2020.

Figure 3.4.3: Population vs Urbanized Area Plot

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 Methodology

Table 3.4.1: Estimated Urbanized Area

3.4.4. Future Population projection:

There are various methods to forecast the future population. All are utilized in our
research and finally we agreed on results based in geometric growth rate method.
Geometrical growth rate method was used to estimate the future population (2021-2040).
The results of the census using the various population estimates are given in Table 3.6.
These results were then plotted based on census data and in this way the geometric value
of the future demographic value was chosen as the results of this method indicate that the
values are closer to the actual data as represented in Figure 3.23. Geometric growth rate
method has been used to forecast future population numbers from 2020 to 2040.
Table 3.4.2: Estimated Population using Various Models

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 Methodology

Figure 3.4.4: Selection of Suitable Method for Population Projection

3.5. FUTURE URBANIZED AREA:

Urbanized area corresponding to future population was estimated from the available
graphs that were between population and time and another graph between urbanized area
and time. A suitable equation was developed and finally we calculate the urbanized area
using the equation developed from the graph.
The rate of increment in the forecasted future impervious area i.e., 13.20% per year for
the next twenty years was more compared to the impervious area increment rate for the
past twenty years i.e., 8.79% per year. This rate of increment in the future impervious
area should be less compared to the past rate of increment due to the fact most of the
catchment area has already been urbanized and in future less urbanization will take place
over the watershed of the Rawal dam. Therefore, the future urbanized area calculated
based on the relationship was modified in accordance with the future population increase
rate using the following relationship.
Modified urbanized area = Urbanized area based on past relationship x future population
increase ratio
Where, future population increase ratio is the ratio between the population at the start i.e.,
year 2020 and the population of next subsequent years up to 2040. The percentage
urbanized area in the catchment was then calculated by multiplying the modified
impervious area with an imperviousness factor 0.7 with a supposition that 70% of the
impervious area is totally urbanized and rest of the 30% area consists of parks and other
pervious land surfaces. The results of the future urbanized area based on relationship and
modified urbanized area tabulated in Table 3.7 were then plotted with the future
population to develop future urbanization model as illustrated in Figure.

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 Methodology

Table 3.5.1: Future Population and Corresponding Urbanized Area

population
future imperviou
by modified
urbanized impervious pop s
year geometric urbanized
area area . Increase per.
growth area
ratio Area
method
2020 1818228 70.16 67.61177704 47.32824393 0.963679832 17.21027052
2021 1886755.268 75.2 69.83525063 48.88467544 0.928660248 17.77624562
2022 1957904.416 80.64 72.1658049 50.51606343 0.894913255 18.36947761
2023 2031736.584 86.5 74.59696073 52.21787251 0.86239261 18.98831728
2024 2108352.947 92.8 77.12178761 53.98525133 0.831053746 19.63100048
2025 2187858.498 99.6 79.7650304 55.83552128 0.800853719 20.30382592
2026 2270362.186 106.91 82.5079148 57.75554036 0.771751144 21.00201468
2027 2355977.071 114.8 85.3774649 59.76422543 0.74370614 21.73244561
2028 2444820.476 123.28 88.35234446 61.84664112 0.716680276 22.48968768
2029 2537014.147 132.43 91.46099395 64.02269577 0.690636517 23.28098028
2030 2632684.422 142.27 94.6862582 66.28038074 0.665539173 24.10195663
2031 2731962.404 158.88 101.8983002 71.32881013 0.641353853 25.93774914
2032 2834984.137 164.2722091 101.528014 71.0696098 0.618047414 25.84349447
2033 2941890.799 176.570484 105.1632469 73.61427281 0.595587918 26.76882648
2034 3052828.888 189.8158699 108.943791 76.26065372 0.573944587 27.73114681
2035 3167950.43 204.0812233 112.8748271 79.01237898 0.553087762 28.73177418
2036 3287413.181 219.4450018 116.9617421 81.87321945 0.532988863 29.7720798
2037 3411380.847 235.9916953 121.2101364 84.84709548 0.513620347 30.85348927
2038 3540023.309 253.8122888 125.6258319 87.93808233 0.494955672 31.97748448
2039 3673516.85 273.0047626 133.1171222 93.18198556 0.4876 33.88435839
2040 3812044.406 293.6746288 140.7582496 97.67 0.4793 35.51636364

3.6. SETTING UP OF HEC-HMS MODEL

Setting up of HEC-HMS model involves following steps.

3.6.1. Input Data Preparation

Input data for the model includes rainfall data of Rawal Dam from 2000-2021, inflow
data of Rawal dam from 2000-2021 and the urbanized area in terms of impervious area in
percentages.

3.6.2. Model Calibration

Calibration of data is accomplished by comparing the results of simulated from for the
rain fall data and observed flow at the outlet. For this purpose, we use the data of 2006.
We put the rainfall data in the precipitation gauge and assign this gauge to sub basin.
After that we create a discharge gauge and put the inflows for the same year 2006 and put
this after that we assigned this gauge to outlet and carry out the simulation. Graph shows
the comparison of simulated hydrograph and observed flows with two differences curves.
Initially there was a large difference between the two values, so we start calibration by

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 Methodology

adjusting the values of different percentages like time to peak, concentration time, curve
number and reach to the point where the efficiency factor reaches to 0.95. We all these
parameters as calibrated at this efficiency.

Table 3.6.1: Results of Model Calibration and Validation

year 2010 2006 2009 2015

observed peak flow(m^/s) 603.8 587.7 449.3 152.2
simulated peak flow((m^/s) 595.4 591.3 455.1 154.7
initial loss(mm) 2.2
constasnt loss rate(mm/hr) 2.5
tp(hr) 2
cp 0.4
initial discharge(m^3/s) 1.5
recession constant 0.6
mean abs error((m^/s)) 7 16.6 16.4 7.5
volume residual(MM) 3.56 4.09 11.66 3.4

Figure 3.6.1: Model Calibration for year 2013

3.6.3. Model Validation

Validation of the model is carried out by imputing the data of some years other than the
calibrated year. For this we selected three years 2004, 2012 and 2018. We keep the
parameters same that were find, we calibrated already. Model efficiency factor for the
year 2004, 2012 and 2018 are

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 Methodology

Figure 3.6.2: Model Validation for Year 2006

Figure 3.6.3: Model Validation for Year 2001

Figure 3.6.4: Model Validation for Year 2012

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 Methodology

Figure 3.6.5: Model Validation for Year 2015

3.6.4. Model Application

Once we determine the parameters and validation is verified, we use these parameters for
the forecasting of future flows and peak volumes.
Impervious area was found from the graph and put into model. Rainfall data was taken
from 2000-2021 if the same rainfall cycle would repeat itself for the next few years. The
model hydrograph for the year 2022-2030 are produced in the figures below.

Figure 3.6.6: Model Validation for Year 2020

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 Methodology

Figure 3.6.7: Model Validation for Year 2030

Figure 3.6.8: Model Validation for Year 2038

3.7. COMPARISON BETWEEN PAST AND PREDICTED FLOWS

The average annual flows and annual volumes of the past twenty years from 2000 to 2020
were compared with the predicted average annual flows for the next 20 years from 2021
to 2040 obtained from the model application. This is to measure the impact of future
urban migration on the flow of the Rawal dam. The results of the comparison are
described in detail in Chapter # 4 of the Outcomes and Discussions.

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 Methodology

3.8. FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PAST AND PREDICTED FLOOD

DATA

Flood frequency analysis is based on past and future flood data for 20 years using
Gumbel's overpowering distribution method. The first flood frequency analysis of the
previous flood data was performed using three different flood frequency analysis methods
namely Gumbel's over-distribution method, the Log Pearson-III method, and the Log
Normal method. Details of these methods are provided in the previous chapter of the
Literature Review. The results of the flood frequency analysis using these methods are
presented in the table
Table 3.8.1: Flood Frequency Analysis for Past Flood Data

Xt Xt Xt

Gamble
extreme Log
Log
Return value Person
Normal
period distribut type III
T ion
year m^3/s m^3/s m^3/s
2 1142 934 1243
10 2033 2282 1923
25 2754 2523 2543.7
50 3343 3302 3267
100 3903.4 3892 3827
200 4567 4987 4432
500 5124 5746 5237
1000 6234 7234 6453

Table 3.8.2: Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Flood Data

Return Xt
period m^3/s
2 1346
10 2375
25 3173
50 3865
100 4476
200 5234
500 6432
1000 7987
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 Chapter No 4

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

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 Results and Discussions

4.1. GENERAL

Results of increasing urbanized area in terms of flood discharge and volume are presented
in this chapter in the form of comparison between the observed flows and volumes and
predicted flows and volumes in the future. The results are obtained after performing the
runoff modeling using HEC-HMS software for the catchment of Rawal dam.

4.2. COMPARISON BETWEEN AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS

After finding out the urbanized area for next 20 years, average annual flows are obtained
from model analysis and are compared with the average annual flows for the past 20
years. The year-by-year comparison of between the observed and predicted flows and
annual volumes is given in table 4.1 and bar chart is represented in figure 4.1. The
purpose of the comparison is quantifying the impact of impervious area on annual average
flows and average volumes. The comparison shows mean annual flow over a period from
2000 to 2020 would increase from 10.83 m 3 /sec to 11.52 m 3 /sec i.e., 6.16% increment
due to urbanization in the next 20 years from 2020 to 2040. The result of comparison
shows that for high flow years the Model showed deficiency as the observed flows are
more than the predicted flows. The comparison also shows more difference between the
observed and predicted mean annual flows especially for the last five years. The reason is
that the flows of these years are very less in comparison with the other years in the data
record and the difference has become more prominent. Another reason is that the
predicted flows for the last few years are corresponding to more than 18 %
imperviousness of the watershed of Rawal dam therefore even for lesser amount of
precipitation the flows would be dominant as compared to the higher amount of rainfall
with less urbanized area of the watershed area as is the case here.

Table 4.2.1: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Average Annual Flows and Volumes

Peak Annual Peak Annual

Year Flows Volumes Year Flows Volumes

m^3/s MM m^3/s mm
2000 326.3 1304.5 1299.389 2020 386.78 1398.67
2001 640 1547.94 2021 702.87 1634.89
2002 523 1470.02 2022 582.89 1523.89
2003 568.8 1554.18 2023 605.89 1633.7
2004 314.6 1295.39 2024 372.9 1360.7
2005 216.3 1237.25 2025 259.8 1288.6
2006 591.6 1849 2026 670.7 1940.54
2007 412 1687.9 2027 478.78 1752.89

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 Results and Discussions

2008 312.7 1245.87 2028 357.7 1288.7

2009 154.7 643.89 2029 191.3 678.3
2010 598.7 1063.9 2030 546.3 998.43
2011 356.6 1162.76 2031 322.67 1134.78
2012 266.7 897.11 2032 298.78 943.89
2013 591.6 1435.85 2033 637.8 1477.7
2014 662.9 1436 2034 690.7 1490.7
2015 455.1 1685.73 2035 441.7 1671.8
2016 269.84 1064.4 2036 293.7 1103.6
2017 266.4 714.84 2037 308.76 771.6
2018 492.9 1343.45 2038 527.6 1374.7
2019 493 1347.8 2039 534.7 1380.6

Figure 4.2.1: Comparison of Predicted and Observed Annua Average Flows

4.3. COMPARISON BETWEEN AVERAGE ANNUAL INFLOW VOLUMES

The comparison of forecasted and observed average annual volumes is presented the in
figure 4.2. Table 4.1 represents the year-by-year comparison between the predicted and

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 Results and Discussions

the observed mean annual volume at the Rawal dam. The mean average annual volume of
past two decades i.e., from 2000 to 2020 was estimated to be 1299.984 Mm3 which
would be become 1383.2 Mm3 with overall increase of 6.22 % in future twenty years due
to increasing human settlements in the watershed of Rawal lake.

Figure 4.3.1: Comparison of Predicted and Observed Average Annual Volumes

4.4. COMPARISON BETWEEN FLOOD DATA

The observed and predicted peak discharges are presented in table 4.2. The observed
flood data for the past 20 years is compared with the predicted flood data over the next 20
years considering the future urbanization. The comparison is presented in the form bar
chart in figure 4.3. The results of comparison show that the magnitude of floods increases
with the increase in urbanized area in the catchment of Rawal dam.

Table 4.4.1: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Flood Data

Average Observed Flow

Year Year
m^3/s
2000 10.48876712 10.83003 2020 10.49
2001 12.07808219 2021 12.08
2002 11.89088398 2022 11.89
2003 10.50824176 2023 10.51
2004 9.993681319 2024 9.994
2005 15.22983425 2025 15.23

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 Results and Discussions

2006 13.7 2026 13.7

2007 14.56202186 2027 14.56
2008 5.180440771 2028 5.18
2009 5.17032967 2029 5.17
2010 10.46393443 2030 10.46
2011 7.218356164 2031 7.218
2012 15.18787879 2032 15.19
2013 11.5860274 2033 11.59
2014 13.73489011 2034 13.73
2015 8.668219178 2035 8.668
2016 5.806575342 2036 5.807
2017 11.01239669 2037 11.01
2018 12.45 2038 12.45
2019 11.67 2039 11.67

Figure 4.4.1: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Average Peak Flows

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 Results and Discussions

4.5. COMPARISON BETWEEN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS RESULTS

Flood frequency analysis was performed based on the visual data predicted and predicted
in the Rawal dam. The results obtained from the flood frequency analysis are shown in
Table 4.3. These results are compared with the graph status between predicted and
displayed data as shown in Figure 4.4. The results show that there will be an increase in
floods of different return times over the next two decades due to urbanization. Comparing
the 1000 years of floods in the past and future flood data, it is found that it will increase
by 11.72% due to the increase in the urban area above the Rawal dam water due to urban
migration.
Table 4.5.1: Results of Flood Frequency Analysis

Xt Xt percent
Return (2020- (2021- age
period 2040) 2040) increase
T
year m^3/s m^3/s
2 1546 1142 26.13195
10 2654 2033 23.39864
25 3343 2754 17.61891
50 3865 3343 13.50582
100 4476 3903.4 12.79267
200 5234 4567 12.7436
500 5765 5124 11.11882
1000 6932 6234 10.06924

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 Chapter No. 5

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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 Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1. GENERAL

After comparing the observed and predicted annual average flows and volumes, a
quantitative assessment of the impact of impervious area on the flows is presented in this
chapter in the form of conclusions. Based on this comparison between the observed and
estimated flows for past and next 20 years, these conclusions are made.

5.2. LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES AND URBANIZATION IN

THE RAWAL LAKE CATCHMENT

The population is growing and the migration to the local catchment areas of Rawal has a
significant local difference depending on the geographical location. The urbanization rate
is extremely high, with an urban area close to Islamabad City. The economic sectors
mainly contain industries and service industries, and the rate of urban migration is very
high, with the city of Islamabad City and regional policies providing a good outdoor
space for urban metropolitan areas in Rawal cities and city expansion are becoming more
dynamic. To analyze the expansion patterns of the city of Rawal ponds from 2000 to
2020, we select the location of the Rawal lake near the main city. In 2000-2020 the Rawal
water dam experienced rapid development in cities. In the sub-discovery the Metropolitan
Agglomerations have shown rapid growth in quantity and quality of built-up areas.

5.3. DISCUSSIONS

Following conclusions are taken from the present study:

• According to previous population data analysis, Islamabad population is found to
have increased by 7.32% per annum over a period of 20 years from 2000 to
2020. people from other parts of the world. As a result of this rapid population
growth, the urban area of Rawal Dam has increased by 8.79% per annum over
the past few years.
• All conclusions drawn from the research are based on considering urbanization
only, however, other activities causing land use change in the catchment are
neglected.
• Based on the population forecasting for the next twenty years from 2020 to 2040,
the population of Islamabad is likely to increase at a rate of 6.40 % per year. This
increase in population is expected to cause the impervious area to increase a rate
of 5.37 % per year over the next two decades.
• Rapid increase in the impervious area in the catchment of Rawal dam has
occurred because of un controlled construction activities, imperviousness would
likely to increase which is estimated to result in 6.22% increase in the mean
annual flows at the Rawal dam over the next twenty years.
• The design flood for the Rawal dam is likely to increase by 11.72 % considering
the future imperviousness.

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 Conclusions and Recommendations

5.4. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Since the design floods would increase considerably as per the research findings,
so the reservoir operation rule curves may be revised for future.
• Discharging capacity of the spillway may also be assessed to pass safely the
future design flood.
• In the current study the rainwater flow model of the Rawal dam was developed
using the HEC-HMS, which is a lumped hydrological model, which in some
cases lacks the normal flow modeling. The same work can therefore be
performed by looking at a physiologically based hydrological model to evaluate
the results of current research work.
• In recent work, the impact of urban migration is read not only on the flow and
flooding of the Rawal dam, but also on the rate at which water residues in the
dam enter. The local water table is also lowered due to an increase in the non-
sinking area. Current work can therefore be extended by considering the impact
of future urbanization on soil erosion, water quality degradation and groundwater
depletion.
• Rapid population growth is taking place worldwide and has become a global
phenomenon. This increase in population requires more infrastructure including
housing communities, roads, and other business premises etc. to meet the current
need for increased urban slowdown on the positive side is recommended which
means overcrowding.
• To reduce groundwater depletion from urban sprawl, access plates can be
constructed in the Rawal dam area so that the natural ecological balance of the
area is maintained by the continuous flooding of these entrances.

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 References

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