BLAST FURNACE DISASTER AVOIDANCE SYSTEM

Laura Ronholm and François Boudreau

Process Automation, Dofasco Inc.

Box 2460, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, L8N 3J5

Abstract: A blast furnace hearth chill can be one of the most serious disruptions in the
steelmaking process, resulting in equipment damage and extended shutdowns. In order to
provide the operators with advance notification of potential chill conditions at Dofasco’s
#4 Blast Furnace hearth, the Blast Furnace Disaster Avoidance System was developed.
The system uses a multivariate statistical model to predict the hot metal temperature two
hours in advance. Results analysis has shown that the system is able to provide advance
notice of 70% of potential chill conditions. Copyright © 2007 IFAC

Keywords: Blast Furnace, Multivariate Statistics, Process Monitoring, Predictive Model,

Hearth Chill.

1. INTRODUCTION 2. BACKGROUND

A blast furnace hearth chill occurs when the
temperature of the hot metal that is tapped from the
furnace is too low. When the hot metal temperature
is low, the hot metal and slag become more viscous.
This can cause difficulties with the drainage of the
hot metal from the furnace. If the temperature is low
enough, the hot metal may begin to solidify within
the piping.
Previous chilled hearth conditions at Dofasco have
resulted in shutdowns of approximately 1 to 2 days
to remove the hot metal and slag from the furnace
and to replace damaged equipment. The shutdowns
were followed by recovery periods of several days to
bring the furnace back up to normal operation. The
cost of such a shutdown can range in the millions of
dollars. A system which would detect the hearth
chill in an early stage and allow the operator
sufficient time to take corrective action would result
in extension of the furnace campaign life, prevention
of unsafe and unhealthy working conditions for the
operators, and production gains by avoiding lengthy
furnace shutdowns,
This paper describes a multivariate statistical model
developed to predict the hot metal temperature two
hours in advance at Dofasco’s #4 Blast Furnace. The
system alerts the operator when the predicted hot
metal temperature is below a threshold value. The
operator can then follow standard operating
procedures to prevent the hearth chill.
2.1 Process Description
The first process in a steelmaking facility is the blast
furnace, which is illustrated in Fig. 1. Iron, coke,
flux (limestone/dolomite), heated air (hot blast), fuel,
and other components are combined in the blast
furnace to produce hot metal, or “pig iron”. The hot
metal is then used as the raw material in the
steelmaking plant.
The blast furnace is a continuous counter-current
batch operation in which the iron, coke, and flux are
added at the top of the furnace while the hot blast and
fuel are introduced through openings at the bottom of
the furnace. The heated air reacts with the fuel and
coke to produce the heat required for the
reduction/smelting process. The reduced iron melts
and accumulates in the bottom of the hearth, while
the by-product of the process, slag, which consists of
the iron ore impurities and flux, accumulates on top
of the hot metal.
The lower part of the blast furnace, or hearth, is
operated batch-wise in that hot metal and slag are
periodically drained out of the furnace through tap
holes. The time between successive furnace
drainages is termed a cast and is typically 2-3 hours.
The residence time of the iron in a blast furnace is
approximately 8 hours.

Coke Iron Ore Flux
Waste Gases Waste Gases
Hot Blast Hot Blast
Slag
Hot Metal
Fig.1. Schematic of a blast furnace.
Dofasco, located in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada,
currently has two blast furnaces in operation, with a
combined production of approximately 2.2 million
metric tonnes annually. The #4 Blast Furnace, which
was used as the basis for this work, has a working
volume of 1595 m3 and daily production rate of 4400
tonnes per day.
2.2 Blast Furnace Models
The blast furnace is a very complicated process
consisting of complex chemical and thermodynamic
reactions. Much work has been done in the area of
developing first principal mathematical models of the
blast furnace (Burgess, 1992). These models have
been useful as offline tools in providing insight into
the operation of the blast furnace. The
computationally intensive algorithms, however, are
impractical for online applications due to the long
calculation times and the high development costs.
For this reason, empirically derived models of the
blast furnace are favoured for online
implementations.
Within the last couple of decades, work in the area of
the blast furnace has focussed on the development of
empirical models. In particular, there have been
many applications of expert systems, genetic
algorithms, and neural networks (Singh, et al., 1996;
Otsuka, et al., 1999). Jiminez, et al. (2004)
developed a neural network model that was able to
predict hot metal temperature with a deviation of +/-
10°C. However, this model provided the predicted
hot metal temperature only two minutes in advance,
so a model of this type would not provide the
operator with enough notice to take corrective action.
If the prediction horizon was increased, the accuracy
of the model would deteriorate.
3. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Hundreds of process variables at Dofasco’s #4 Blast
Furnace are monitored and stored. Many of these
variables are highly correlated. Due to sensor
malfunctions or to the variability in time required to
obtain certain measurements, it is possible that not all
of the data will be available at all times for an online
application. For these reasons, a multivariate
statistical model was chosen as the modelling
technique for this application. Multivariate
techniques have the advantage of being able to
handle large numbers of correlated variables. They
also include provisions for missing data handling.
3.1 Variable Selection
Over 35 process variables were determined to be
significant in the prediction of hot metal temperature.
These variables summarize characteristics of the
inputs (coke, iron ore, flux, fuel, and hot blast) and
outputs (hot metal, slag, and waste gases) of the
process. An important step in the model building was
the selection of lagging for each of the variables in
order to adequately capture the dynamics of the
process. The lags used in the model were chosen
based on a combination of process knowledge and
the effect on model accuracy.
There are two types of process variables in the blast
furnace: continuous variables and batch variables.
Continuous variables are measured at a high
frequency and include hot blast and waste gas
analysis variables.
The batch variables are those that are only available
once per cast. These include hot metal and slag
variables. Since the cast times or batch duration
times are not consistent and vary between batches,
the sampling interval between these variables varies.
To account for the different sampling intervals, the
model input values for the batch variables were
interpolated between successive measurements at
pre-determined time intervals. The pre-determined
intervals were chosen to maximize the model
accuracy.
The lagged process variables that were determined to
be important in the prediction of hot metal
temperature were combined to form a (n×k) matrix,
X. Similarly, the measured hot metal temperatures
were combined to form a (n×1) vector, Y, where n is
the number of observations and k is the number of
model input (process) variables.
3.2 PLS Model
A Partial Least Squares (PLS) model was developed
to predict the hot metal temperature two hours in
advance. The NIPALS (Nonlinear Iterative Partial
Least Squares) algorithm (Geladi and Kowalski,
1986; Hoskuldsson, 1988; Kresta et al., 1994) was
used to develop the PLS model. The algorithm can 3.3 Reliability Index
be described as follows:
In addition to a hot metal temperature, the model also
1. Mean centre and scale X and Y. calculates a reliability index which is based on the
2. Set U equal to a column of Y. amount of missing data. Each model input is
3. Regress columns of X on U: WT=UTX/UTU. assigned a weighting in the calculation of the
4. Normalize W to unit length. reliability index that is proportional to its weighting
5. Calculate the scores: T=XW/WTW. in the PLS model. Thus, a missing variable that has
6. Regress columns of Y on T: Q=YTT/TTT. a large weighting in the PLS model will have a larger
7. Calculate new U: U=YQ/QTQ. impact on the reliability index than one which has a
8. Check for convergence on U. Iterate steps 3 to 7 low weighting in the model.
until convergence.
9. Calculate X loadings: P=XTT/TTT. The reliability index is calculated as follows. First a
10. Calculate residual matrices: E=X-TPT and F=Y- vector of the relative weightings (β) for each of the
TQT. model variables are calculated using the weightings
11. If additional PLS dimensions are required, set from the PLS model (W, P, and Q) as follows:
X=E and Y=F and repeat steps 2 to 10.
β = W(P T W ) −1 Q T (1)
Missing data handling capability (Kresta et al., 1994)
was also included in the algorithm to ensure that the
model would be able to provide predictions with where W is a matrix of PLS x-weightings, P is a
incomplete data. matrix of PLS x-loadings, and Q is a matrix of PLS
y-weightings. These matrices are defined in the PLS
Since the goal of the system is to predict chill algorithm described above. Next the reliability index
incidents in the blast furnace hearth, it is more for a particular hot metal temperature prediction is
important that the model is able to predict hot metal calculated:
temperature more accurately at low temperatures as
compared to high temperatures. However, there are ⎛
⎜ ∑ δ(i)β(i) ⎞⎟ (2)
very few data points at these low temperatures since RI = 100⎜ i ⎟
it is very undesirable to operate the furnace under ⎜
⎜
⎝
∑ β(i) ⎟⎟⎠
i
these conditions. To improve the model accuracy at
low temperatures, more weighting was placed on
those casts with low hot metal temperature in the where δ is a vector containing missing data status
training data set. As a result, the model is less information for each x-variable (0=missing). By
accurate at higher temperatures but more accurate in including the reliability index as a model output, the
the low temperature range, which is more important operator has an indication of how reliable the model
for the purpose of detecting chills. prediction is.

A plot of the model predictions from offline

simulations is shown in Fig. 2. As indicated in the 3.4 Alarm Threshold
plot, the model predictions are more accurate at
lower temperatures. The overall standard deviation An integral part of the online model performance is
of the error is 14.3°C. However, the standard the selection of the alarm threshold value. If the
deviation of error for those casts in which the predicted temperature is below the threshold value,
measured hot metal temperature is below 1430°C is an alarm is issued. The higher the value chosen for
10.5°C. the threshold, the greater the likelihood that a near-
chill incident will be detected. However, a high
1525
value will also result in more false alarms since there
is a level of uncertainty associated with the
1500 temperature predictions. In order to obtain suitable
C)
o

detection and false alarm rates, numerous offline

Measured Hot Metal Temperature (

1475 studies were performed and the value which resulted

in acceptable rates for both was chosen by the client.
The alarm threshold value currently used by the
1450
system is 1430°C.

1425

4. ONLINE RESULTS
1400
The online system was modified to provide
predictions every 20 minutes although actual hot
1375
1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 metal temperature measurements are only available
o
Predicted Hot M etal Temperature ( C) once per cast. This increase in frequency allows the
operator to visualize how the hot metal temperature
Fig. 2. Comparison between predicted and actual hot is changing between measurements.
metal temperature.
The system has been implemented online in
background mode. In this mode, ironmaking
technology engineers use the system for troubling
shooting purposes; however, operators do not receive
the alarms and thus can not take corrective action as
a result of the alarms. The corrective actions are not
taken until the first measured hot metal temperature
is below the critical limit.
In background mode, the Blast Furnace Disaster
Avoidance System has provided advance notice of
seven separate near-chill incidents in which the
measured hot metal temperature was below the
critical temperature for two or more successive casts.
In each of these incidents, the Blast Furnace Disaster
Avoidance System issued alarms 1 to 5 hours before
the first low hot metal temperature measurement was
taken. If the system was fully implemented, the
operators would have had enough notice to take
corrective measures to prevent the near-chill
incidents from occurring.
A summary of the online performance is shown in
Table 1. In the table below, a fault is considered a
near-chill incident in which the measured hot metal
temperature is below the critical temperature for two
or more casts.
Table 1. Performance of Blast Furnace Disaster
Avoidance System.
Performance Criteria Value
Total number of faults 10
Faults detected with >1 hour notice 7 Dofasco’s #2 Blast Furnace.
Faults detected with <1 hour notice 2
Faults not detected 1
A plot of one of the near-chill incidents is shown in
Fig. 3. The period in which the alarm is active is
shaded on the graph. This alarm period corresponds
to the predicted temperatures which are plotted two
hours in the future. In this example, the first alarm is
issued 3.5 hours before the first hot metal
temperature measurement below the critical
temperature is taken. The predicted hot metal
temperature briefly rises above the alarm threshold
and then falls below once again. The alarm is
subsequently re-issued until the predicted
temperature again increases above the alarm
threshold after the near-chill condition in the hearth
has been corrected.
If the Blast Furnace Disaster Avoidance System were
fully implemented in the above example, the operator
would have received 3.5 hours notice of the near-
chill condition. This would have been sufficient time
to follow standard operating procedures (SOPs) to
prevent the potential hearth chill.
5. CONCLUSIONS
A multivariate statistical model was developed to
predict hearth chill conditions in Dofasco’s #4 Blast
Furnace. Results have shown that the model is
successful in predicting 70% of the near-hearth chill
conditions in which the measured hot metal
temperature is below the critical temperature for two
or more successive casts with at least 1 hour notice.
1550
1525
1500
Hot Metal Temperature ( C)
o
1475
1450
1425
1400
1375
1350
6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00
Time
Measured Predicted Active Alarm Period
Fig. 3. Plot of predicted hot metal temperature
during a near-chill situation in which the
measured cast temperature was below the critical
temperature for 3 casts.
Due to the success of the system in background
mode, a decision was made to proceed with the full
implementation of the system at Dofasco’s #4 Blast
Furnace. The system will also be expanded to
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