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  • Answer TEST 2

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    Ash Denem
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    1) Various forecasting techniques were used to predict future demand including naive forecasting, simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 produced the most accurate forecasts. 2) Linear regression was performed on historical demand data, finding a slope of 150 units per month and intercept of 1000 units. This model was used to forecast demand for December and June of the following year. 3) The linear regression model predicted a 32.439% improvement in demand between December and June next year.

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    1) Various forecasting techniques were used to predict future demand including naive forecasting, simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 produced the most accurate forecasts. 2) Linear regression was performed on historical demand data, finding a slope of 150 units per month and intercept of 1000 units. This model was used to forecast demand for December and June of the following year. 3) The linear regression model predicted a 32.439% improvement in demand between December and June next year.

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    14 views4 pages

    Answer TEST 2

    Uploaded by

    Ash Denem
    1) Various forecasting techniques were used to predict future demand including naive forecasting, simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 produced the most accurate forecasts. 2) Linear regression was performed on historical demand data, finding a slope of 150 units per month and intercept of 1000 units. This model was used to forecast demand for December and June of the following year. 3) The linear regression model predicted a 32.439% improvement in demand between December and June next year.

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    of 4

    Data to be manually changed accordingly

    L3D = 4

    Adju
    Q2 Input Quantity unit/mth Base data Add multiplication of L3D L3D
    A 23530.8448 Demand= 20000 unit/mth 100 204
    B 22354.3025 ScrapRate PA= 5 % 0
    C 21460.1304 PB= 4 % 0
    D 20816.3265 PC= 3 % 0
    PD= 2 % 0
    Machine Required ProcesTime TA 100 0.02 100.
    A 3.40707023 TB 130 0.01 130.
    B 4.2056619 TC 39 0
    C 1.21085805 TD 30 0
    D 0.90348639
    Operation Time
    24 day/mth
    8 hr/day

    Q2(a)
    𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
    𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝐷 =
    (1 − 𝑃𝐷) 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
    𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝐶 =
    (1 − 𝑃𝐶)(1 − 𝑃𝐷)

    = 20400 = 20400
    (1-0.02) (1-0.03)(1-0.02)
    = 20400 = 20400
    (0.98) (0.97)(0.98)

    = 20816.327 = 20816.327 = 21460.13 = 21460.13


    1 mark 1 mark

    Quantity rejected at process C = Input D - Input C = 21460.130 "- 20816.327

    "= 643.804 1 mark

    Rejection rate at process C in units per hour = 643.803913317905 / (24*8)


    "= 3.353 units/hr
    1 mark
    Q2(b)
    𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
    𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝐵 =
    (1 − 𝑃𝐵)(1 − 𝑃𝐶)(1 − 𝑃𝐷)

    𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝐵
    No of machine at 𝐵 = 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐵
    = 20400 = 22354.303
    (1-0.04)(1-0.03)(1-0.02) (24*8*3600) /130.04

    = 20400 = 22354.303
    (0.96)(0.97)(0.98) 5315.2876

    = 22354.303 = 22354.303 = 4.205662 = 5 units 2 mark


    2 mark
    Adju
    Q3 Base data Add multiplication of L3D L3D
    i. Naïve = 1568 units (1 mark) Jan 980 unit/mth 0 9
    Feb 1100 0 11
    Simple Moving Average Mar 1270 0 12
    ii. 3 period SMA= (1558+1538+1568)/3 = 1554.666667 Apr 1325 0 13
    1554.66667 units (1 mark) May 1380 0 13
    Jun 1500 1 15
    Weighted Moving Average Jul 1550 2 15
    iii. 4 period WMA= (0.4*1568)+(0.3*1538)+(0.2*1558)+(0.1*1504) Aug 1530 2 15
    iii. 4 period WMA= 1550.6 (2 marks) Sep 1560 2 15

    iv. Exp Smoothing= Actual Forecast Weight for WMA Exp Smoothing
    July 1558 1608 W1 0.4 Alpha= 0.3
    Aug 1538 1593 W2 0.3 FcastJuly= 1608
    Sep 1568 1576.5 W3 0.2
    Oct 1573.95 W4 0.1

    Forecast
    Aug= 1608+0.3(1558-1608) = 1593 Linear regression
    Sep= 1593+0.3(1538-1593) = 1576.5 m 150 1 1
    1576.5+0.3(1568-
    Oct= 1576.5) = 1573.95 (3 marks) c 1000 0.1 1000

    v. Linear regression=
    y = m(x) +
    c
    X Y
    Dec 12 2848.4 (1 mark) Y(12) = 154(12) + 1000.4
    June next yr 18 3772.4 (1 mark) Y(18) = 154(18) + 1000.4
    Improvement= 32.439 % (1 mark) 100(3772.4 - 2848.4) / 2848.4

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