DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS

DR. RAMJIT KUMAR

PROSPECTS & TRENDS OF POPULATION
GROWTH OF INDIA

____
SOURCE:
THE UNITED NATIONS’ WORLD POPULATION
2022
 Population Dynamics: Overall Trend
As per the 2022 edition of the United Nations’ World Population
Prospects (WPP), released in July:
 The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is
slowing down.
 The global population is expected to grow to around 8.5 billion in
2030.
 In 2020, the global growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first
time since 1950.
 Currently, with 7 billion Asia is the most populous continent and has
61 per cent of the global population.
 India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous
country in 2023.
 Population Dynamics: Global Prospepct

• The report pointed out that a sustained drop in fertility has led to an
increased concentration of the population at working ages (between 25
and 64 years) and the population of older persons is increasing both in
numbers and as a share of the total.
• The share of the global population aged 65 years or above projected to
rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050.
• The UN report also pointed out that rates of population growth vary
significantly across countries and regions.
• More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050
will be concentrated in just eight countries.
• These countries are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt,
Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United
Republic of Tanzania
 Population Dynamics: Migration

• A sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration

of the population at working ages (between 25 and 64 years).
• International migration is having important impacts on
population trends for some countries:
 For high-income countries between 2000 and 2020,
the contribution of international migration to population
growth (net inflow of 80.5 million) exceeded the balance of
births over deaths (66.2 million).
 Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of
population growth in high-income country.
 India
• With a population of 1.4 billion, India accounts for
about 17.5 per cent of the world’s population, 1 of
every 6 people on the planet live in India.
• India is projected to surpass China as the world’s
most populous country in 2023. India is currently
at a stage of demographic transition with a
substantial percentage of the youth population.
Top 10 Countries: Population in Billion

Source: World Population Prospect 2022

Global Population Size and Annual Growth Rate
World Population Prospect 2022
 National Family Health Survey Report

• According to National Family Health Surveys report following trends have been
found:
– There is mounting concern that future growth could turn out to be jobless due to de-
industrialization, de-globalization, and the industrial revolution 4.0.
– Over 95% of India’s children attend primary school. Poor infrastructure in
government schools, malnutrition, and scarcity of trained teachers have resulted in
poor learning outcomes.
– The gender inequality in education is a concern as in India, boys are more likely to be
enrolled in secondary and tertiary school than girls. However, in the Philippines,
China and Thailand, it is the reverse and in Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, the
gender differences are rather minimal.
– India ranked at 131st position by the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) Human Development Index 2020, which is alarming. Therefore, health and
education parameters need to be improved substantially to make the Indian workforce
efficient and skilled.
 Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18 (NSSO)

• According to Labor Force Survey conducted by National Sample Survey

Organisation following points are important:
– India’s labor force participation rate for the age-group 15-59 years is around
53%, that is, around half of the working age population is jobless.
– The informal nature of the economy in India is another hurdle in reaping the
benefits of demographic transition in India.
– Without proper policies, the increase in the working-age population may
lead to rising unemployment, fuelling economic and social risks.
– A greater proportion of youth at present will result in a greater proportion
of elderly in the population in future.
– This will create a demand for better healthcare facilities and development of
welfare schemes/programmes for elderly people.
– People, typically in informal employment, don’t have social security, it will
add burden to the respective state.
 Policy Implications

• For those already in the 25-64 age bracket, Skilling is the

only way to ensure they are more productive and have
better income.
• The 65+ category: Provisioning of social security is
obviously a big challenge. This will stretch the resources of
the future governments.
• In this context, aged stay within the family set-up, reduces
the burden on the government.
Median Age of Population of Different States of India
 India

• India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most

populous country in 2023.
• India’s population is already 1.4 billion and may go up to 1.6
billion before declining.
• From data it is clear that cohorts of 0-14 years and 15-24
years will continue to decline while those of 25-64 and 65+
will continue to rise for the coming decades.
 India’s Demographic Dividend
• While India as a country is growing, the status and pace of
population ageing vary among States.
• Southern States have a higher percentage of older people.
• Kerala’s population is already ageing. The working age population of
Bihar is predicted to continue to increase till 2051.
• The difference in age structure reflect differences in economic
development and health of the states.
• When the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger
than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger,
and 65 and older), this yields potential of economic growth.
• The median age in India is 28 years., compared to 38 in China and
the US, 43 in Western Europe, and 48 in Japan.
 Youth in India- 2022 Report

• Youth in India 2022’ Report is released by the Ministry of

Statistics and Programme Implementation. According to the
report following point have pointed out-
– The proportion of elderly population to the total population
has increased from 6.8% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2016. This
is projected to reach 14.9% in 2036.
– The population of youth in the age group of 15-29
years comprise 27.2% of the population for the year 2021.
– This is expected to decrease to 22.7 by 2036.
 Youth in India 2022’ Report
• India’s favorable demographic dividend is at an inflection point of sorts,
with the population share of the youth starting to taper off even as the
share of the elderly is expected to steadily surge during 2021-2036.
• The states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which experienced a rise in
proportion of youth population to total population till 2021, are expected
to see a decline from here on.
• These two states, along with Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and
Rajasthan, are projected to have over half (52 per cent) of the country’s
youth.
• States such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are projected
to see a higher elderly population than the youth by 2036.
 Youth in India 2022’ Report

• For Kerala, which saw the youth population peak earlier than other
states, the elderly population share in total population has been
projected at 16.5 per cent compared with 22.1 per cent of youth
population in 2021.
• The share of elderly in total population (22.8 per cent) in Kerala is then
projected to cross the share of youth (19.2 per cent) by 2036.
• Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are also projected to experience
elderly population more than the youth by 2036.
 Youth in India 2022’ Report
• A greater proportion of youth at present will result in a greater
proportion of elderly in the population in future. This will create a
demand for better healthcare facilities and development of welfare
schemes/programmes for elderly people.
• Proportion of youth to the total population had increased from 26.6 per
cent in 1991 to 27.9 per cent in 2016 and then projected to start a
downward trend and to reach 22.7 per cent by year 2036.
• On the contrary, the proportion of elderly population to the total
population has increased from 6.8 per cent in 1991 to 9.2 per cent in
2016 and is projected to reach 14.9 per cent in 2036.
 Youth in India 2022’ Report
• Citing the findings from the Report of Technical Group on
Population Projections, 2020, constituted by Ministry of Health and
Family Welfare, this report said youth in the age group of 15-29
years comprise 27.2 per cent of the population for 2021, which is
expected to decrease to 22.7 by 2036.
• The proportion of the population aged under 15 years is projected
to decline, the elderly in the population is expected to increase.
• The total youth population increased from 222.7 million in 1991 to 333.4
million in 2011 and is projected to reach 371.4 million by 2021 and,
thereafter, decrease to 345.5 million by 2036.
 A Window of Opportunity

• The large number of youths in terms of work participation has

been called a window of opportunity in terms of growth and
development of our country. However this opportunity need to be
reaped.
 How can India take Advantage from the
Demographic Dividend?
• With more than 65% of the working age population, India can rise as an
economic superpower, supplying more than half of Asia’s potential
workforce.
– Increase in the Labor Force can enhance the productivity of the
economy.
– Rise in Women’s Workforce that naturally accompanies a decline in
fertility, and which can be a new source of growth.