10 CONFLICTS

2023
UKRAINE
So far, Ukraine has withstood Russia's assault, thanks to the courage
of Ukrainians and Western aid. One in three Ukrainians has been
displaced in the past year.The ideologies of Ukrainians is to resist
giving up land when they have been gaining it. Moscow hopes that
the winter cold and high gas prices, caused by Western boycotts of
Russian hydrocarbons, will make Europeans reluctant to support
Ukraine.Western leaders should keep the door open difficult to do; to
some extent, it baffles other parts of the world. So far, however, it is
the right one. backing Ukraine, even at the risk of nuclear escalation,
is better than allowing Russia to assert itself through a brutal military
campaign and nuclear threat.

NAGORNO KARABAKH
Russia's problems in Ukraine also have other repercussions. As part
of the 2020 cease-fire, Russian peacekeepers were deployed in
the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh still inhabited by Armenians. The
idea was that the contingents, though small, would deter attacks
because Baku would guard against provoking Moscow. Moscow
has tended to lead peacemaking efforts over Nagorno-
Karabakh.Since the war began in Ukraine, Moscow sees EU
diplomacy as part of broader efforts to curb Russia's influence.As
a result, two draft agreements are circulating, Each draft
addresses trade and stabilization of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border.

IRAN
Tens of thousands of people, mostly young people, led by women and
schoolgirls who reject the mandatory hijab as a symbol of misogyny and
oppression in general, have taken to the streets in acts of crude defiance
against the regime. The Iranian government has killed hundreds of people,
including dozens of children. At the moment, there is no indication that
the regime will break away. Tehran's nuclear capability has advanced by
leaps and bounds in recent years. Its uranium enrichment capacity has
increased and its breakout time has been reduced to almost zero. This is
likely to lead Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a
potential casus belli for the United States and Israel. It is hard for the
protesters to gain if the nuclear crisis comes to a head; more likely, the
beleaguered regime will change its tune.

YEMEN
Fighting has not resumed, but both sides are preparing to
return to war.Had they taken the town of Marib and nearby oil
and gas facilities, they would have won the war for the north,
they would have secured much-needed funds. Initial hopes for
a broader agreement have faded.After two extensions, UN-led
negotiations on an extended truce failed in early October.
Major ground offensives and cross-border attacks have not
resumed. the Huthis lack funds and their forces are weakened.

ETHIOPIA
The seizure of a series of national military bases in the region,
claiming that they preempted a federal intervention. During two
years of fighting, the advantage was tilted from one side to the
other. Sexual violence has been widespread and appears to have
been used strategically to humiliate and terrorize the civilian
population. In Nairobi, Abiy's commanders appeared to offer a
more flexible timetable for disarmament, agreeing that Tigrayan
forces would surrender heavy weapons as Eritrean and Amhara
fighters withdrew. The Eritreans, for their part, have not yet
withdrawn, although reports suggest that some of their troops
have begun to withdraw. It is not clear whether the Ethiopian
prime minister recognizes the need
 THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO AND
THE GREAT LAKES
The M23, a hitherto dormant rebel group reported by the UN to be
supported by Rwanda, is wreaking havoc in eastern Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC). M23 controls several towns and surrounds
the provincial capital of Goma. Tshisekedi accuses Kagame of backing
the M23 as a way of extracting Congolese resources.The long-
suffering local population has high hopes that Kenyan troops can push
back the rebels, but Kenya sensibly sees the objective as being more
about securing Goma and its surrounding main roads and pushing the
M23 into a ceasefire. The East African force is an opportunity, in other
words, to make room for diplomacy as much as to fight the M23.

THE SAHEL
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger show no signs of having defeated the
tenacious Islamist insurgency. Most worryingly, Traoré is recruiting
volunteers to fight the jihadists, which could lead to ethnic
bloodshed. Mali suffered two coups of its own, in 2020 and 2021.
The state is virtually absent in the far north.But now, feeling
abandoned, some rebels could see advantages in rejoining the
jihadists. Niger is in better shape, although there are also worrying
signs. The government has integrated civilian militias into the security
forces or refused to arm them. France, which intervened to drive
militants out of northern Mali in 2013, has ended its operations there,
due to its strained relations with Bamako, although it maintains bases
in Niger. Anger across the region against the French is growing,
thanks in large part to a decade of Western failures to stem militant
advances, but also to Russian disinformation.

HAITI
Haiti is paralyzed by political paralysis and rampant gang violence. Public
services are collapsed and cholera is spreading. The situation is so dire that
some Haitians are now pinning their hopes on foreign troops. Hundreds of
gangs control more than half of the country. They are suffocating the
capital, Port-au-Prince, blocking the roads and imposing a reign of terror,
including the use of rape to punish and intimidate people, etc. Things have
come to a head in the last six months; in July, battles between the G9 and
another gang over Cité Soleil, a slum near Port-au-Prince, killed more than
200 people in just over a week. The result has been a humanitarian
catastrophe. there is also political opposition. few foreign countries are
willing to deploy troops

PAKISTAN
Khan's departure from power last spring was accompanied by his fall from
grace with the Pakistani military.Violent protests intensified across the
country when Sharif's government rejected Khan's call for early elections.
His supporters also lashed out at senior commanders, particularly . Bajwa.
Khan's claims that Sharif is mismanaging the economy. Reliable estimates
put the total damage and economic losses at $31.2 billion, with at least
another $16.3 billion needed for recovery. Meanwhile, Islamist militants
are resurgent. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bordering Afghanistan,
militant attacks on security forces have increased. During the U.S. war in
Afghanistan, Islamabad appears to be struggling to impose its will on its
former ally.

TAIWAN
Unification has long been China's goal. The United States maintains a
"one China" policy. But with an increasingly powerful and assertive
Beijing, Washington is showing signs of tightening policies adopted
when China's military was weaker. Taiwan and deployed warships and
warplanes across the "median line," which for decades has served as a
tacitly agreed limit on Chinese military activity in the Taiwan
Strait.Biden seems aware of the danger. Although he has a disturbing
tendency to engage in military aid to Taiwan. Should Beijing's domestic
economic and political problems worsen, a more forceful show of
resolve would be possible, especially considering that the U.S. is
pushing at a time of perceived Chinese weakness.