Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2014
ISSN 2196-3940
A political power struggle between South Sudanese president Salva Kiir and former
vice president Riek Machar resulted in violent clashes between ethnic army factions
in December 2013. Since then fighting has spread across South Sudan and claimed the
lives of around 10,000 people.
Analysis
South Sudan has experienced several insurgencies since gaining independence in 2011.
Nevertheless, the current war has the potential to be more destructive to the country
than previous ones because both parties – President Salva Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, and his
opponent, former vice president Riek Machar, an ethnic Nuer – are instrumentalizing
ethnic identities and pulling their communities into their personal feud.
A number of latent issues have contributed to the current crisis. These include
South Sudan’s dysfunctional political system and inadequate political leadership,
the historical distrust between the Dinka and the Nuer, and the country’s unhealthy
dependence on oil rents.
The civilian population is carrying the cost of the conflict. More than 10,000 people
have been killed and more than one million displaced since the outbreak of the
latest violence. Livelihoods have been destroyed and more than 3.7 million people,
approximately a third of the population, are estimated to be at risk of food insecurity.
The short- and long-term economic consequences for South Sudan are harsh. Oil
production has dropped by 40 percent, severely affecting the state’s budget. Trade
has suffered. In the long run, political instability will jeopardize foreign direct
investment in South Sudan.
The international community’s reaction has been varied: Neighboring countries
have supported the government diplomatically and militarily, while the United
States and the European Union plan to impose sanctions on the leaders of both sides
of the conflict. China has taken an active role in the ongoing peace process.
Keywords: South Sudan, civil war, power struggle, ethnic violence, international conflict
mediation
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Finally Independence and Then War Again ulation. Although the power struggle between Ki-
ir and Machar is not an ethnic one per se, it has se-
The recent history of the newest nation on the vere implications for relations between the Dinka
globe has been troubled. When the South Suda- and Nuer communities. The ethnic equilibrium in
nese voted for independence in 2011, many of the government – a Dinka as president and a Nuer
them foresaw a future of freedom, peace, devel- as vice president – has been widely viewed as an
opment, and prosperity. The international com- important safeguard to preserve stability between
munity expected progress, too. Yet since South the two largest ethnic communities.
Sudan’s independence in 2012, the world has At 10:00 p.m. on 16 December 2013, fighting
mostly received bleak news from the country. Re- erupted among the presidential guards in Juba.
ports of ethnic violence, local insurgencies, wide- According to military sources, the fighting start-
spread corruption, the autocratic practices of the ed when unexpected changes were made to the
dominant Sudan People’s Liberation Movement guards’ deployment. An argument between the
(SPLM), and border conflicts with the country’s groups is believed to have ignited the clash that
northern neighbor, Sudan, have been common in left approximately 20 dead. Other reports say that
the headlines. fighting broke out after President Kiir ordered the
The recent political and violent conflict be- arrest of dissident politicians. Following the initial
tween President Salva Kiir and former vice pres- clash, Kiir accused Machar and other SPLM offi-
ident Riek Machar, both members of the SPLM, cials of attempting a coup against his government
represents a new dimension of instability. The – which Machar denied. Several government offi-
conflict could potentially result in a failed state, cials were arrested for their alleged links to the vi-
an outcome that could destabilize the whole re- olence, including Pagan Amum. Machar fled Juba
gion. This article summarizes how the crisis has for his home, Jonglei State. In the following days,
evolved and which latent factors have contributed targeted ethnic killings of civilians took place in
to it. Based on this analysis, it then discusses the Juba, illustrating the immediate ethnic implica-
humanitarian and economic implications of the tions of the political power struggle between Ki-
conflict, as well as its impact on South Sudan’s in- ir and Machar.
ternational relations. During the days and weeks after the clash-
es erupted in Juba, heavy fighting between army
units loyal to the government and rebel forces loy-
From Internal Power Struggle to Civil War al to Machar spread to the states of Jonglei, Unity,
Central Equatoria, and Upper Nile. Machar had
The Outbreak of Violence the support of 10,000 recent army deserters and
The current crisis began in July 2013 when Pres- a number of local militias. Among the latter was
ident Kiir sacked his entire cabinet, including the White Army, which consists of approximate-
his chief rival, Vice President Riek Machar, with- ly 25,000 armed Nuer youth. The fact that 10,000
out giving any reasons. Analysts agree that Kiir’s troops broke rank demonstrates that almost 10
move exposed a power struggle that had been tak- years of security sector reform in South Sudan
ing place within South Sudan’s ruling party, the have failed to address ethnic fragmentation with-
SPLM. A number of senior SPLM members, in- in the South Sudanese army.
cluding Machar and the SPLM’s secretary-gener- In December 2013, rebels held the strategically
al, Pagan Amum, had increasingly viewed Kiir’s important towns of Bor, Bentiu, and Malakal. The
leadership as autocratic. Kiir’s decision was ap- latter two are particularly important hubs for the
parently also further driven by Machar’s aspira- oil industry. Using aerial bombardment (alleged-
tions to run as the SPLM’s presidential candidate ly carried out by the Ugandan army), the govern-
in the upcoming elections in 2015. ment was able to regain control of Bor and Bentiu.
There is a distinct ethnic element to power Control over Malakal and Bentiu has shifted be-
and politics in South Sudan. President Kiir be- tween rebel forces and government troops sever-
longs to the Dinka, the largest ethnic communi- al times since the end of 2013. While the army has
ty in South Sudan with 36 percent of the popula- secured a number of strategically important tar-
tion. Machar belongs to the Nuer, the second-larg- gets such as major towns and oil infrastructure,
est ethnic community with 16 percent of the pop- the rebels have retreated into the bush and started
Historical Distrust between the Dinka The current violence, which has now lasted five
and the Nuer months, has severely deteriorated the humanitar-
Although the Dinka and the Nuer fought side by ian and economic situation in South Sudan and in
side against the government in Khartoum for de- its neighboring countries.
cades, their relationship has been ambivalent. In
1991, internal leadership struggles between late Humanitarian Crisis
SPLM leader John Garang (Dinka) on the one side Since fighting erupted in Juba in December 2013,
and his deputy, Riek Machar (Nuer), and Lam seven out of South Sudan’s 10 states have been af-
Akol (Shilluk) on the other led to a split within the fected by the violence, which has left an estimat-
SPLM. Machar and Akol created the SPLM-Nasir ed 10,000 people dead and over one million dis-
faction. The major blowback for the SPLM (Din- placed (UNHCR 2014). Large parts of the South
ka) was not only that a large faction of its troops Sudanese population have faced atrocities, dis-
broke away in a critical phase of the war, but also placement, and food shortages. As of the begin-
that the SPLM-Nasir faction switched sides to ally ning of May, fighting and food insecurity had
with the central government in Khartoum. After forced more than 400,000 people to flee to neigh-
becoming Khartoum’s new proxy in the civil war, boring countries. Up to 100,000 South Sudanese
the SPLM-Nasir, consisting mainly of Nuer fight- refugees had entered each of Ethiopia and Ugan-
ers, killed at least 2,000 Dinka civilians in the town da. Yet most of the people fleeing their homes have
of Bor, in what was known as the Bor massacre, on remained within South Sudan’s borders. Approx-
15 November 1991. Even though this happened al- imately 80,000 of the more than 800,000 internally
most a quarter of a century ago, the event remains displaced persons have sought shelter within lo-
present in the collective memory of the Dinka and cal bases of the United Nations Mission in South
the Nuer and has the potential to fuel resentment Sudan (UNMISS). However, even these supposed-
in the current struggle. ly safe camps have come under attack, and people
seeking refuge have been targeted and killed.
Oil Rents Sponsor the Government’s UN agencies and international nongovernmen-
Underperformance tal organizations are trying to help the 3.7 million
Governments that depend largely on income from people – one-third of the entire South Sudanese
natural resource extraction often face a dilemma, population – at high risk of severe food insecu-
popularly known as the “resource curse.” This ap- rity. At the beginning of April, the World Food
plies by and large to South Sudan, which has the Programme announced plans to supply the pop-
most oil-dependent budget in the world. Govern- ulation of South Sudan’s remote areas with about
Thea Gutschke is an intern at the GIGA Institute of African Affairs. She has a BA in political science from
the University of Heidelberg and has volunteered at the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict
Research (HIIK) for the past three years. Her research interests include the causes of armed conflicts,
conflict mediation, and transitional justice.
Contact: <gutschke@hiik.de>
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