Myanmar testament to vulnerability of democracy

Rashed Rahman 18 Jan, 2022

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The military junta that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected
National League for Democracy (NLD) by a coup on February 1, 2021 on the
eve of the NLD’s return to power for a second consecutive term after a
landslide victory in the November 2020 general elections continues its
extreme repression against all opposition. In the latest development, hundreds
of Buddhist monks have fled two major towns in the east of the country,
Loikaw in Kayah state (province) and Demoso, amongst thousands of people
displaced by fighting between the military and anti-coup rebel groups. Around
30 monasteries lie abandoned, in a reversal of traditional respect for holy men
and temples being considered sanctuaries. Fighting has intensified in the
eastern region since December 2021. Over Christmas, 35 bodies, including two
Save the Children workers, were found burnt in Kayah state, an atrocity
blamed on the junta’s troops. The junta is pressing ahead with brutal,
indiscriminate air and ground attacks against rebel fighters and the
population in this and other sectors.

Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, the junta has killed 1,469 peaceful
protestors and arrested 11,000 (200 of the latter died under torture). The
junta feels no compunction for its brutal crackdown because it fears no
repercussions from the US-led west (despite mealy-mouthed statements of
‘principle’ regarding human and democratic rights) and has so far been able to
rely on inaction internationally with the help of Russia, China and other
countries (e.g. the UN General Assembly has condemned the coup, but the
Security Council is hamstrung by Russian and Chinese obstruction, partly a
reaction to Russia being taken for a ride by the west on Libya in the name of
‘humanitarian intervention’, partly China’s support to Myanmar on the by now
‘leaky’ plea of no interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states).

Not only does the junta not suffer from sleepless nights on account of no
repercussions, it can rely on some governments arming, legitimising and
financing it. The latter is critical, given that the junta’s handling of the
economy since the coup has been described as in ‘zombie mode’. Part of this
zombie behaviour is the military being used to extract electricity bills on pain
of death from people subscribing to withholding payment as part of a civil
disobedience movement. This has deprived the junta of a crucial source of
revenue. In the immediate aftermath of the coup, millions walked off their
jobs in protest and millions more refused to pay their electricity bills on the
grounds that these revenues translate into bullets to kill people. Many have
compensated for being forced to pay at gunpoint by making donations to the
People’s Defence Force (PDF), an anti-regime militia formed since the coup
and the brutal crackdown on peaceful protestors.

The armed resistance to the junta includes all the ethnic insurgencies of long
standing, most of whom emerged after the military’s first takeover in 1962.
Fighting has been most intense in Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Shan states
and the Sagiang Region. Myanmar has a central area inhabited by the Bamar
majority ethnic group, surrounded by minority ethnic groups on its periphery
and borders, almost all of whom have been waging armed resistance against
military dictatorship for decades. Aung San Suu Kyi’s five-year stint in power
was expected to yield a resolution of these ethnic conflicts. Its failure may have
persuaded the military that the NLD would decline at the polls in November
2020. But the result was the opposite. The NLD swept 80 percent of the
civilian seats (25 percent are reserved for the military), had an overwhelming
majority, and was poised to come back triumphantly into power. This electoral
sweep panicked the military since it perceived it as an indicator that its
monopoly over power was being eroded and slipping away in the face of the
democratic forces led by the NLD’s triumphant march forward. Army chief
General Min Aung Hlaing demanded a power-sharing arrangement on the eve
of the coup, which the NLD declined. The General also had a personal agenda.
He was due to retire in July 2021 and saw the NLD’s electoral victory as
foreclosing his chance to become president. Hence the February 1, 2021
overthrow. It has also been alleged that General Hlaing moved to capture
power fearing his reported invested wealth may be exposed. The military
dominates Myanmar’s important economic sectors. Aung San Suu Kyi’s 2015-
20 government opened up the economy to diversification and competition,
which threatened the military-owned monopolies in the largest economic
sectors.

Arguably therefore, the Myanmar coup may be summed up as (1) a

continuation after a brief semi-democratic five year interregnum of the
military’s hold on power since 1962; (2) a testament to the vulnerability of
even the most popular (and strengthening) democracy when a military expects
no serious repercussions from the so-called ‘international community’ (read
the US-led west) and support at some level or the other from the ‘other side’
(read the international ‘competitors’ of the US-led west). The favourite ploy of
the former against regimes considered unacceptable, i.e. sanctions, are
nowhere in sight. The new global ‘Cold War’ has persuaded the latter to weigh
its possibilities and advantages in any situation in that light. In this ‘happily’
divided world, the Myanmar military junta has little to fear except the
consequences and fallout of its own actions. If its intent to charge Aung San
Suu Kyi with one absurd charge after another in order to sentence her to a
possible 100 years imprisonment (which, for the 76-year old leader, amounts
to a death sentence) is carried out, Myanmar’s brave resistance brothers and
sisters will not rest till justice, peace and democracy is restored to a country
unremittingly in the grip of a brutal military dictatorship. The arrogance of
possessing arms will not stand forever in the face of the winds of change
history promises.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

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