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Will the coups keep coming?

Dr Mazhar Abbas
Dialogue
August 14, 2022

Since 1958, Pakistan has seen the rule of four military leaders
W
ill the coups against elected governments continue to derail democracy
in Pakistan? This is a question on many people’s mind because: 1)
Pakistan has seen several military coups during its young history; 2) military
is the most powerful and disciplined service (wrongly described sometimes as
an ‘institution’) perceived by many as the lone saviour of the country; 3) every
other government uses the possibility of a coup as a scare tactic even when
the real threat to their rule is on account of feeble governance, corruption and
mismanagement; 4) tension between the elected governments and the military
top brass on issues ranging from foreign policy to economic management and
from appointment/ extension in service of heads of the army or the Inter-
Services Intelligence (ISI) make headlines; and 5) the people are not in
agreement with regard to the kind of political system they would like to live
under. Tracing the history and the causes of military takeovers in the country
is necessary to answer the question.
Why did all these coups happen in Pakistan? To begin with, a combination of
hostile neighbours (mainly India) and threats to internal security are among
the major determinants of the national security. It has been claimed for long
that Pakistan got its freedom from India. This is factually incorrect — both
India and Pakistan got their independence from the British colonisers in
August 1947.
The threat from India, a hostile neighbor, is thus exaggerated. The truth is that
Pakistan lost its eastern wind, in 1971, in one of the four wars (1948, 1965, 1971
and 1999) it has fought against India. Besides, several terrorist groups,
insurgents, separatists and extremists (some of them allegedly supported by
foreign powers) pose a serious challenge to the national integration.
Secondly, the absence of an efficient administrative fabric leaves the
underprivileged and unprivileged, even sometimes the privileged citizens, at
the mercy of nefarious elements. Unfortunately, there is a vast administrative
vacuum. Disasters, both natural and man-made, expose the inadequacies in
our civilian setup quite frequently. This makes people dependent on the good
work done by the military in times of emergencies like floods, earthquakes,
fires and pandemics. This provides an opportunity to the military to build its
image and to create authority that is deemed necessary to rule a developing
country. This creates the impression that military is the lone messiah. When
some adventurous generals overthrow a civilian government people
remember and acknowledge their services and welcome them.
The demise of Quaid-i-Azam (1948) and the murder of Liaquat Ali Khan (1951)
created a leadership crisis on one hand and triggered an endless power tussle
among the politicians on the other. Their lack of capacity and maturity ceded
space first to the bureaucracy and then the military.

Thirdly, political instability, erupting either naturally due to shoddy

performance of elected leaders or engineered through covert means, invites
the ‘saviours’ to fix the problems they are never trained for. For example, the
demise of Quaid-i-Azam (1948) and the murder of Liaquat Ali Khan (1951)
created a leadership crisis and triggered an endless tussle among the
politicians. Their lack of capacity and maturity ceded space first to the
bureaucracy and then the military. The ‘messiah’ the people had been waiting
for turned up in October 1958. In 1977, the Pakistan National Alliance had
launched a countrywide protest campaign against the Bhutto-led Pakistan
Peoples Party (PPP) alleging rigging in the elections. This resulted in the coup
led by Gen Zia ul Haq.
Lastly, collusion between political leaders and the military also paves the way
for a military takeover. Some politicians are opportunists and prefer personal
gains over national interests. They consider politics a profitable business. That
is why instead of holding elections at the end of their terms, they try to
collude with the military.
Thus, instead of handing over power to their political opponents, such
politicians prefer to invite the military to take charge. In a similar vein, those
in the opposition also look for such collusion, even at the cost of becoming a
king’s party. Such behavior is mainly due to lack of political training and the
willingness to accept their opponents in government. The judiciary, too, has
been providing cover to unconstitutional actions under the doctrine of
necessity.
Have these causes been rooted out? No, they are still there. So, will the coups
keep coming? One cannot answer this question with a plain ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.
However, the chances of a military coup have been reduced by the following
developments:
First, the PPP, supported by both coalition partners and the opposition,
amended Clause 2 of the Article 6 of the Constitution that deals with ‘high
treason,’ in the Eighteenth Amendment. Now the clause reads as “Any person
aiding or abetting or collaborating the acts mentioned in Clause 1 shall
likewise be guilty of high treason.” Anyone would now be afraid of being
tried for high treason.
Second, two former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, after
their ouster from the office, have launched massive campaigns against
interference by external forces in political matters. This has not only created
awareness among the youth but also mobilised them. The educated and
charged youth can be a serious check on any (mis)adventure.
Lastly, a mature, active and strong civil society chiefly comprising lawyers
will, unlike the past, vehemently resist any unconstitutional move.

The writer has a PhD in history from Shanghai University and is a    lecturer at
GCU, Faisalabad. He can be contacted at   mazharabbasgondal87@gmail.com.   He
tweets at   @MazharGondal87
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Will the coups keep coming?

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