-Why isn't John in class?

"Degree of certainty" refers to how sure we are-what we

100% sure: He is sick. think the chances are-that something is true.

I 95% sure: He must be sick.

He m a y be sick.
less than 50% sure: He might be sick.
He could be sick.
If we are sure something is true in the present, we don't
need to use a modal. For example, if I say, "John is sick,"
I am sure; I am stating a fact that I am sure is true. My
degree of certainty is 100%.

-Why isn 'z John in class? I Must expresses a strong degree of certainty about a 1
(a) He must be sick. (Usually he is in class every
day, but when I saw him last night, he wasn't
feeling good. So my best guess is that he is sick
today. I can't think of another possibility.) In (a): The speaker is saying, "Probably John is sick. I
have evidence to make me believe that he is sick. That is
my logical conclusion, but I do not know for certain."

-Why isn't John in class?
(b) He may be sick.
(c) He might be sick.
(d) He could be sick. (I don't really know. He may
be at home watchingw. He might be at the
library. He could be out of town.)
*Maybe (one word) is an adverb: Maybe he is sick.
May be (two words) is a verb form: He m y be sick.
May, might, and could express a weak degree of
certainty.
In (b), (c), and (d): The speaker is saying, "Perhaps,
maybe," possibly John is sick. I am only making a guess.
I can think of other possibilities."
(b), (c), and (d) have the same meaning.

EXERCISE 2. Degrees of certainty: present time. (Chart 10- 1)

Directions: From the given information, make your "best guess" by using must. This
exercise can be done in pairs, in small groups, or as a class. If the exercise is done in pairs,
A and B should switch roles halfway through.
Example:
SPEAKER A (book open): Alice always gets the best grades in the class. Why?
SPEAKER B (book closed): She must study hard. / She must be intelligent.
1. ( . . . ) is yawning. Why?
2. ( . . . ) is sneezing and coughing. Why?
3. ( . . . ) is wearing a wedding ring. Why?
4. ( . . . ) is shivering and has goose bumps. Why?
5. ( . . . )'s stomach is growling. Why?
6. ( . . . ) is scratching his arm. Why?
7. ( . . . ) has already had two glasses of water, but now helshe wants another. Why?
8. ( . . . ) is smiling. Why?
9. ( . . . ) is crying. Why?
10. There is a restaurant in town that is always packed (full). Why?
11. I am in my car. I am trying to start it, but the engine won't turn over. I left my lights
on all day. What's wrong?
12. Every night there is a long line of people waiting to get into (a particular movie). Why?
13. Don't look at your watch. What time is it?

176 CHAPTER 10
 You're coughing and sneezing,
blowing your nose, and running a
fever. You

I do.
This winter jacket is still in good shape,
but Tommy has outgrown it. Do you
think it would fit one of your sons?
Well, it's probably too small for
Johnny, too, but it

How long has it been since you last saw

your family?
More than a year.
A: You
B: I do.

10. A: How old is their daughter now?

B: Hmmm. I think she was born around the same time our daughter was born.
She

100% sure: Sam isn't hungry.

99% sure: { Sam couldn't be hungry,

Sam can't be hungry.

95% sure: Sam must not be hungry.

Sam may not be hungry.
less than 50% sure:
Sam might not be hungry.

(a) Sam doesn't want anything to eat. He isn't In (a): The speaker is sure that Sam is not hungry.
hungry. He told me his stomach is full. I heard
him say that he isn't hungry. I believe him.
- -

(b) Sam couldn'tlcan't be hungry! That's
impossible! I just saw him eat a huge meal. He
has already eaten enough to fill two grown men.
Did he really say he'd like something to eat? I
don't believe it.
In (b): The speaker believes that there is no possibility
that Sam is hungry (but the speaker is not 100%
sure). When used in the negative to show degree of
certainty, couldn't and can't forcefully express the
idea that the speaker believes something is impossible.

(c) Sam isn't eating his food. He must not be
hungry. That's the only reason I can think of.
(d) I don't know why Sam isn't eating his food. He
may notlmight not be hungry right now. Or
maybe he doesn't feel well. Or perhaps he ate just
before he got here. Who knows?
In (c): The speaker is expressing a logical conclusion, a
"best guess."
In (d): The speaker uses may notlmight not to
mention a possibility.

178 CHAPTER 10
PAST TIME: AFFIRMATIVE In (a): The speaker is sure.
-W%y wasn't Mary in class? In (b): The speaker is making a logical conclusion,
(a) 100%: She was sick. e.g., "I saw Mary yesterday and found out that
she was sick. I assume that is the reason why she
(b) 95%: She must have been sick. was absent. I can't think of any other good
reason."
She may have been sick.
In (c): The speaker is mentioning one possibility.
(c) less than 50%: She might have been sick.
She could have been sick.

PAST TIME:
NEGATIVE
-Why didn't Sam eat? In (d): The speaker is sure.
(d) 100Y0: Sam wam't hungry. In (e): The speaker believes that it is impossible
Sam couldn't have been hungry. for Sam to have been hungry.
(e)
Sam can't have been hungry. In ( f ) :The speaker is making a logical conclusion.

(f) 95%: Sam must not have been hungry. 1 h (g) : The speaker is mentioning one possibility.
(g) less than so%: Sam may not have been hungry.
Sam might not have been hungry.

EXERCISE 9. Degrees of certainty: past time. (Chart 10-3)

Directions: Work in pairs, in groups, or as a class.
Speaker A: Your book is open. Give the first cue. After the response, give the second cue.
Speaker B: Your book is closed. Respond to the first cue with may have / might have 1
could have. Then after you get more information in the second cue, use
must have.
Example:
SPEAKER A (book open): 1st cue: Jack was absent yesterday afternoon. Where was he?
SPEAKER B (book closed): I don't know. He may have been at home. He might have gone
to a movie. He could have decided to go to the zoo because the
weather was so nice.
SPEAKER A: 2nd cue: What if you overhear him say, "My sister's plane was late
yesterday afternoon. I had to wait almost three hours." Now
what do you think?
SPEAKER B: He must have gone to the airport to meet his sister's plane.
1 . 1st cue: ( . . . ) didn't stay home last night. Where did shehe go?
2nd cue: What if you overhear herhim say, "I usually go there to study in the evening
because it's quiet, and if I need to use any reference books, they're right there."
2. 1st cue: How did ( . . . ) get to school today?
2nd cue: What if you see herlhim pull some car keys out of herhis pocket?
3. 1st cue: ( . . . ) took a vacation in a warm, sunny place. Where do you suppose shethe
went?
2nd cue: What if you then overhear herihim say, "Honolulu is a nice city"?
4. 1st cue: ( . . . ) visited a person in this class yesterday. Do you know who shehe visited?
2nd cue: What if I say this person (supply a certain distinguishing characteristic)?
5 . 1st cue: ( . . . ) walked into class this morning with a broken arm. What happened?
2nd cue: Then you overhear herihim say, "After this I'm going to watch where I'm
going when I'm riding my bicycle."
Modals, Part 2 181