Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Probability Distribution
Learner's Module in Statistics and
Probability
Quarter 3 ● Module 1
BRYAN A. HIDALGO
Developer
Published by:
DepEd CAR REGIONAL OFFICE
Curriculum and Learning Management Division
COPYRIGHT NOTICE
2021
“No copyright shall subsist in any work of the Government of the Philippines.
However, prior approval of the government agency of office wherein the work is
created shall be necessary for exploitation of such work for profit.”
This material has been developed for the implementation of K-12 Curriculum
through the DepEd Cordillera Administrative Region – Curriculum and Learning
management Division (CLMD). It can be reproduced for educational purposes and
the source must be acknowledged. Derivatives of the work including creating an
edited version, an enhancement or a supplementary work are permitted provided all
original work is acknowledged and the copyright is attributed. No work may be
derived from this material for commercial purposes and profit.
ii
PREFACE
This module is a project of the DepEd CAR Regional Office through the
Curriculum and Learning Management Division (CLMD) which is in response to the
implementation of the K to 12 Curriculum.
Grade Level 11
Learning Resource Type Module
Language English
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The developer wishes to express his gratitude to the Curriculum and Learning
Management Division (CLMD) of DepEd Cordillera Administrative Region for the
guidance from the start until the completion of this Self-Learning Module.
Development Team
Developer: Bryan A. Hidalgo
Layout Artist: Jeremy Kermit B. Padilla/ Jopie B. Ferrer
Illustrator: Warly E. Kindiawan
Consultants
Carmel F. Meris Chief Education Supervisor – CLMD
Florante E. Vergara SDS/ OIC– Office of the ARD
Estela L. Cariño EdD, CESO III Director IV/ Regional Director
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Copyright Notice ………………………………………………………………………… ii
Preface ………………………………………………………………………………….... iii
Acknowledgement ………………………………………………………………………. iv
Table of Contents ……………………………………………………………………….. V
Title Page ………………………………………………………………………………… 1
What I Need To Know ………………………………………………………………….. 3
What I Know ……………………………………………………………………………... 3
What’s In …………………………………………………………………………………. 6
What’s New ………………………………………………………………………………. 7
Activity ………………………………………………………………………. 7
What Is It …………………………………………………………………………………. 8
Random Variables …………………………………………………………. 8
Discrete and Continuous Random Variables …………………………… 8
Discrete Random Probability Distribution ……………………………….. 9
What’s More ……………………………………………………………………………… 17
Activity 1 …………………………………………………………………….. 17
Activity 2 …………………………………………………………………... 17
Activity 3 …………………………………………………………………... 18
What I Have Learned …………………………………………………………………… 18
What I Can Do …………………………………………………………………………… 19
Post-Assessment ………………………………………………………………………... 20
Additional Activities ……………………………………………………………………… 22
Answer Key ………………………………………………………………………………. 23
References ………………………………………………………………………………. 24
v
Random Variables and
Probability Distribution
Learner's Module in Statistics and
Probability
Quarter 3 ● Module 1 ● Week 1
BRYAN A. HIDALGO
Developer
1
Introductory Message
This self-Learning Module (SLM) is prepared so that you, our dear learners, can continue
your studies and learn while at home. Activities, questions, directions, exercises, and
discussions are carefully stated for you to understand each lesson.
Each SLM is composed of different parts. Each part shall guide you step-by-step as you
discover and understand the lesson prepared for you.
Pre-test is provided to measure your prior knowledge on the lessons in each SLM. This will
tell you if you need to proceed on completing this module or if you need to ask your facilitator
or your teacher’s assistance for better understanding of the lesson. At the end of each
module, you need to answer the port-test to self-check your learning. Answer keys are
provided for each activity and test. We trust that you will be honest in using these.
Please use this module with care. Do not put unnecessary marks on any part of this SLM.
Use a separate sheet of paper in answering the exercises and tests. Read the instructions
carefully before performing each task.
If you have any questions in using this module or any difficulty in answering the tasks in this
module, do not hesitate to consult your teacher or facilitator.
Thank you!
2
What I Need to Know
This module was designed and written with you in mind. It is here to help you master
the knowledge and skills on random variables and probability distribution. The scope of this
module permits it to be used in many different situations. The language used recognizes the
diverse vocabulary level of students. The lessons are arrranged to follow the standard
sequence of the course. But the order in which you read them can be changed to
correspond with the textbook or reference you are now using.
What I Know
Pre-Assessment
Read and answer each question. Write your answer in capital letters before the number.
Two dice are thrown. Let 𝑋 represent the sum of the numbers
shown when the dice come to rest.
3
4. How many sample space will there be for the random variable, 𝑋?
A. 6 B. 9 C. 11 D. 12
4
14. Which of the following represents the probability distribution of the random variable?
A. 𝑋 𝑷(𝒙) C. 𝑋 𝑷(𝒙)
0 0 0.375
1 0.25 2 0.375
2 0.50 3 0.125
3 0.25 4 0
B. 𝑋 𝑷(𝒙) D. 𝑋 𝑷(𝒙)
0 0.125 1 0.25
1 0.375 2 0.50
2 0.375 3 0.25
3 0.125 4 1
15. Which of the following graphs represents the probability distribution of the random
variable?
A. RF 1 C. RF 1
0.5 0.5
0 0
0 1 2 3 1 2 3 4
𝑥 𝑥
B. RF 1 D. RF 1
0.5 0.5
0 0
0 1 2 3 1 2 3 4
𝑥 𝑥
5
Lesson Random Variable and Probability
1 Distribution
What’s In
Before starting formally with the main lesson, go over the discussion and activity on
probability of simple and compound events, which you have learned when you were in lower
grades. The knowledge and skills on these topics are pre-requisite skills to the
understanding of random variables.
Recall that the probability of a simple event describes the chance of a single event
occuring because the event can only happen in only one way. On the other hand, the
probability of compound events describes the chances of more than one simple event.
In general, when all the outcomes are equally likely, the probability of a particular
event occurs is
Example:
Suppose a fair coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes which are head and
tail. It is assumed that the outcomes are equally likely because the coin is fair. Therefore, the
probability of tossing a head is
𝟏
𝑷(𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒅) = 𝟐 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟓𝟎%
When outcomes are not equally likely, the relative frequency of historic data is
used and the probability of an event occuring is
Example:
Suppose that one wants to calculate the probability that an electronic chip produced
by a machine is defective. If records show that out of 8000 electronic chips already produced
by the machine only 80 were defective then an estimate of the probability of a defective chip
is
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒅𝒆𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒑𝒔 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒆𝒅
𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒅𝒆𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒑 = .
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒑𝒔 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒆𝒅
6
𝟖𝟎
𝑷(𝑫𝒆𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆) = 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝟏%
𝟖𝟎𝟎𝟎
What’s New
From the examples under What’s In, the outcome of the probability experiments is a
numerical value. When this occurs, the outcome is called a random variable. Informally, a
random variable is a variable whose numerical value is determined by the outcome of a
random procedure. What makes it random is that the observed value of the random variable
cannot be determined until a random procedure is carried out. A random variable is
associated to observations in the real world where uncertainty is involved.
The following are examples of random variables because the outcomes are numbers.
Values (𝒙) of
Random Variable (𝑿)
Random Variable 𝑿
The number of boys in a family of 3 children 0, 1, 2, or 3
The temperature in Baguio City on a particular day From 8.5 oC to 29 oC
The percentage of SHS students infected by COVID 19
From 0 % to 100 %
in CAR
The age of a child selected at random From 1 to 17 years old
The number of phone calls received by a food delivery
0, 1, 2, 3, …, 𝑛
service crew in a day
ACTIVITY
Decide whether the following situations are random variables or not. Write YES if it is
a random variable and NO if it is not on the space provided.
Situation Answer
1. The color of the next car to go past my house
Are you able to answer all the problems? If yes, you may now check your answers in the
Answer Key Section at the end of the module.
7
What Is It
Random Variables
A random experiment is a process by which we observe something uncertain.
A sample space is a collection of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. A sample
space may be finite or infinite. Infinite sample spaces may be discrete or continuous.
A random variable is a function defined on a sample space. It takes specific values and can
be thought as a variable whose value depends on the outcome of an uncertain event.
We usually denote random variables by capital letters of the English Alphabet like
𝑋, 𝑌, 𝑜𝑟 𝑍 and its values can be denoted by its corresponding small letters.
The word “random” in the term “random variable” simply means that the value is
uncertain.
Illustrative Example:
Random Experiment
Tossing of a coin
Sample Space
𝑆 = {𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑, 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙} or 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}
Random Variables
(below are two examples from tossing a coin)
Discrete random variables are countable while continuous random variables are
measurable.
8
The result of throwing a die is a discrete random variable because it can only take
some of the values from 1 to 6. On the other hand, the temperature in Baguio City on a
particular day is a continuous random variable because it can take any value within the
range 8.5oC to 30oC.
It is usual to give a random variable a label. The probability that 𝑿 takes a particular
value, say 𝒙 can then be written 𝑷(𝒙) 𝑜𝑟 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙). For instance, the probability that 𝑋 takes
a value of 2 can be written 𝑃(2) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝑋 = 2).
Let 𝑋 be the time between the commencement of the spin and the coin coming
to rest, measured in seconds.
Let 𝑌 be the number of tails showing when the coin comes to rest. Then, 𝑌 takes
the value 0 if the coin finishes up ‘heads’, or 1 if the coin finishes up ‘tails’.
Example 1
Decide whether the following random variables are discrete or continuous.
9
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable, 𝑋, is a list of
all possible values of 𝑋 can take and the associated probabilities.
As the probability distribution includes all possible outcomes for 𝑋, and these
outcomes are mutually exclusive (only one can occur at once) the probability of each value
of the discrete random variable is from 0 to 1. In notatotion, 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑥) ≤ 1. The sum of all the
probabilities in the probability distribution is 1. In notation, ∑ 𝑃(𝑥) = 1. The capital Greek
letter sigma (Σ) denotes summation.
Example 2
A coin is tossed twice. Let 𝑋 be the number of heads observed in tossing of the coin.
Construct a probability distribution of the random variable 𝑋.
Solution
Frequency Distribution
No. of Heads (𝒙) Frequency of Outcome (𝒇)
0 1
1 2
2 1
Σ𝑓 = 4
Computing the probability of each outcome
1. Sum of frequencies of outcomes is 4.
2. Probability of each outcome
10
a. Probability of getting no head:
Since there is 1 outcome of getting no head and the sum of
frequencies is 4, then
1
𝑃(0) = .
4
𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
3. Observed that 0 < 𝑷(𝟎) = < 1, 0 < 𝑷(𝟏) = < 1, and 0 < 𝑷(𝟎) = < 1.
𝟒 𝟐 𝟒
1 1 1
Also, when 𝑃(0), 𝑃(1) and 𝑃(2) are added, the sum is 1. That is, + + = 1.
4 2 4
Notice that the probabilities of all outcomes are between 0 and 1; and the
sum of the probabilities of all outcomes is 1. Thus, if 𝑥 is the outcome (Number of
heads) and 𝑃(𝑥) is the probability, then the probability distribution of 𝑋, the
number of heads observed is
Probability Distribution
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
1
0 4
1
1 2
1
2 4
Σ𝑃(𝑥) = 1
11
Example 3
A survey about mobile phone ownership reports that 96% of the surveyed individuals
own at least 1 mobile phone. Of these, 40% own 2 mobile phones, 25% own 3 mobile
phones, 5% own 4 mobile phones and none owns 5 or more mobile phones. Let 𝑋 be the
number of mobile phones owned by an individual. Construct a probability distribution.
Solution
Probability of each outcome:
a. Probability of no mobile phone
Since the percentage of individuals who own at least 1 mobile phone
is 96%, then the precentage of individuals with no mobile phone is 4%. Thus,
the probability of no phone is 0.04, 𝑃(0) = 0.04.
Before one can find the probability of owning 1 mobile phone, the probabilities of
owning 2, 3, and 4 mobile phones shall be computed first. The probability of owning 1 mobile
phone is equal to the probability of owning at least 1 phone minus the probabilities of owning
2, 3, and 4 mobile phones.
12
The probability distribution of 𝑋, which is the number of mobile phones owned by an
individual is
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
0 0.04
1 0.288
2 0.384
3 0.24
4 0.048
5 0
Σ𝑃(𝑥) = 1
Example 4
At a school fair, there is a spinner with 12 equal sectors. If you spin the spinner and
lands on a specific sector, the number on that sector corresponds to the number of tokens
you will win. What is the probability distribution of X, the number of tokens you will win?
0 4
3 1
1 0
5
0 2
2 3
1 0
Solution
1. Let 𝑋 be the number of tokens you will win.
From the spinner, the possible outcomes of spinning or the possible values of 𝑋
are 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4.
13
Frequency Distribution
No. of Tokens (𝑿) Frequency of Outcome (𝒇)
0 4
1 3
2 2
3 2
4 1
Σ𝑓 = 12
14
Probability Distribution
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
4
0 12
3
1 12
2
2 12
2
3 12
1
4 12
Σ𝑃(𝑥) = 1
Example 5:
Decide whether the distribution is a probability distribution or not. State your reason.
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
1
1 2
1
2 4
5
3 4
1
4 4
Solution:
There are two properties to be checked in deciding whether a distribution is a
probability distribution. These are: (1) the probability of each value of the discrete random
variable is from 0 to 1 or 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑥) ≤ 1 and (2) the sum of all probabilities in the probability
distribution is 1 or ∑ 𝑃(𝑥) = 1. If one or both of these two properties are not satisfied, then
the distribution is NOT a probability distribution.
a. Check if the probability of each value of the discrete random probability is from 0 to 1,
or it is equal to 0 or 1.
15
𝑷(𝒙) Is the probability of 𝒙 from 𝟎 to 𝟏?
1
𝑃(1) = Yes
2
1
𝑃(2) = Yes
4
5
𝑃(3) = No
4
1
𝑃(4) = Yes
4
5
Because 𝑃(3) = is not from 0 and 1, the first property of a probability distribution is
4
not satisfied.
1 1 5 1 9 1
∑ 𝑃(𝑥) = + + + = 𝑜𝑟 2 .
2 4 4 4 4 4
The sum of the probabilities is not equal to 1. Thus, the second property of the
probability distribution is not also satisfied.
c. Because the two properties of a probability distribution are not satisfied, the
distribution is NOT a probability distribution.
Example 6:
Find the value of 𝑃(1) to make the distribution a probability distribution.
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
0 0.05
1 ?
2 0.23
3 0.21
4 0.17
5 0.11
6 0.08
Solution:
The probability of each value of the random variable and the sum of all probabilities
in the distribution must satisfy the properties of a probability distribution.
a. From the given distribution, 𝑃(1) is missing. We know that the sum of all
probababilities shall be 1 for the distribution to be a probability distribution. Thus, if
we add all probabilities in the distribution the sum should be 1. That is,
16
Σ𝑃(𝑥) = 0.85
P(1) = 1 − Σ𝑃𝑥
𝑃(1) = 1 − 0.85
𝑷(𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓
b. All the probabilities are between 0 to 1. Thus, the value of 𝑃(1) = 0.15.
What’s More
Now, it is your turn to apply all the knowledge and skills you have learned on random
variables and probability distribution.
Activity 1
Write Discrete if the random variable can take some values within a range or Continuous if
it can take any value within the range.
Random Variable 𝑿 Answer
1. The number of problems answered correctly in a test
Activity 2
Solve the given problem.
In a children’s game, the die has two faces marked with 1, two faces marked with 2,
and two faces marked with 3.
a. Write down all the possible outcomes that will be shown by throwing two dice
then find their sums.
First Die Second Die Sum
17
b. Let 𝑋 be the sum of the numbers. Construct a probability distribution.
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
Activity 3
Write whether the distribution is a probability distribution or not. State your reason.
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
1 0.30
2 0.25
3 0.25
4 0.05
5 0.15
Are you able to answer all the problems? If yes, you may now check your answers in the
Answer Key Section at the end of the module.
To summarize what you have learned from the discussions on random variables and
probability distributions, accomplish this activity.
18
1. From the given situation above, give two examples of a random variable that can be
done as experiments.
a.
b.
a.
b.
What I Can Do
Conduct an experiment on the following random variables by interviewing 30
households in your community. Make a summary of your findings by constructing a
frequency distribution and a probability distribution for each of the random variables.
b. Probability Distribution
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
19
Post-Assessment
Read and answer each question. Write your answer in capital letters before the number.
A fair die has 3 faces marked with 1, two faces marked with 2 and
one face marked with 3. Two dice of such are thrown. Let 𝑋 represent
the sum of the numbers shown when the dice come to rest.
4. How many sample space will there be for the random variable, 𝑋?
A. 3 B. 5 C. 6 D. 12
20
9. Which of the following represents the probability distribution of the random variable?
A. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙) C. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
1 0 3 0.333
2 0.250 4 0.278
3 0.333 5 0.111
4 0.278 6 0.028
5 0.111 7 0
B. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙) D. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
2 0.250 0 0
3 0.333 1 0
4 0.278 2 0.250
5 0.111 3 0.333
6 0.028 4 0.278
10. Which of the following graphs represents the probability distribution of the random
variable?
1 1
A. C.
0.50 0.50
0 0
2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5
x x
1 1
B. D.
0.50 0.50
0 0
3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4
x x
For numbers 11 to 15, refer to the given experiment below.
Two fair coins are tossed simultaneously. Let 𝑋 represent the number of tails that
appears when the coins come to rest.
11. How many outcomes are possible for the random variable, 𝑋?
A. 0 B. 1 C. 2 D. 3
21
14. Determine the probability that no tail will appear.
A. 0 B. 0.25 C. 0.5 D. 1
15. Which of the following represents the probability distribution of the random variable?
A. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙) C. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
1 0.25 1 0.25
2 0.50 2 0.50
3 0.25 3 1
B. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙) D. 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
0 0 0 0.25
1 0.50 1 0.50
2 0.50 2 0.25
Additional Activities
Apply the knowledge and skills that you have learned on random variables and
probability distribution by answering the following questions.
Activity 1
Confirm if the relative frequency histogram represents a probability distribution. State
your reason.
Activity 2
Answer the problem below.
Students are given 3 chances to pass a professional examination. A student who
passed is selected at random. The probability distribution of 𝑋, the attempt at which this
student passed, is given as
0.4𝑥−1 (0.6)
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 = 1, 2, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3.
0.936
b. What proportion of the students who passed at the third and final attempt
22
23
What I Know What’s More: Activity 2
1. C a.
2. D First Die Second Die Sum
3. C 1 1 2
4. C 1 2 3
5. A
6. A 1 3 4
7. C 2 1 3
8. A 2 2 4
9. C 2 3 5
10. C
3 1 4
11. C
12. B 3 2 5
13. B 3 3 6
14. B b.
15. A 𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
2 0.111
What’s New
Activity 3 0.222
1. No 4 0.333
2. Yes 5 0.222
3. Yes 6 0.111
4. No
5. Yes
c.
What’s More: Activity 1 1
1. Discrete
2. Continuous
3. Continuous
4. Continuous 0.67
5. Discrete
What’s More: Activity 3 0.33
Answers may vary
Post Assessment
1. B 0
2 3 4 5 6
2. C
3. D
4. B
5. D
6. D What I Have Learned
7. A Answers may vary
8. C
9. B What I Can Do
10. A Answers may vary
11. D
12. B Additional Activities
13. C 1. Yes. Both properties of a probability distribution are
14. B satisfied.
15. D 2. a.
𝑿 𝑷(𝒙)
1 0.641
2 0.256
3 0.102
b. 𝑃(3) = 0.102
Answer Key
References
Bogomolny, Alexander. 2018. Sample spaces and random variables. Accessed March 10,
2021. https://www.cut-the-
knot.org/Probability/SampleSpaces.shtml#:~:text=A%20sample%20space%20is%20
a,defined%20on%20a%20sample%20space.
Glasssrman, Paul. 2001. Random variables, distributions, and expected value. Columbia
Business School. Accsessed March 10, 2021.
https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/pglasserman/B6014/RandomVariables.pdf
Gordon, Ian. 2013. A guide for teachers - years 11 and 12 probability and statistics: module
19. Carlton South Victoria, Australia.
Swift, Louise. 1997. Mathematics and statistics for business, management and finance.
Hampshire: MacMillan Press LTD.
24
For inquiries or feedback, please write or call:
Department of Education – Cordillera Administrative Region
Wangal, La Trinidad, Benguet
Telefax: 442-1318 / 422-4074
Email Address: car@deped.gov.ph
Social Media: facebook.com/DepEdCordillera
25