FAPM Statistics 24th May 2005 2 hours

This test comprises 2 sections. The multiple-choice section consists of 10 questions (2

marks each, 20%). The long answer section has 5 questions (each with subsections)
totalling 80%.
SECTION 1: MULTIPLE-CHOICE—20%
Q1

SECTION 2: LONG QUESTIONS —80%

Q1 14 marks

A common method to model the movements of risky assets such as shares is by the use of
a type of decision tree, known as a "binomial tree". A share, valued S at time t = 0, can
take on values S×u (pricing rising) or S×d (pricing declining) at time t = 1, with
probability p and 1 - p respectively. This is illustrated in the figure below:
Su
p

1-p Sd

Time: t=0 t=1

1a. Write down algebraic expressions for the expected value and variance of S at time
t = 1. [4]

1b. If we assume that u > 1, 0 < d < 1 and ud = 1, expand the binomial tree to show
the possible movements of share prices up to t = 4. [4]

1c. Can S be reached in more than one way at t = 2? Illustrate by way of arrows in
the diagram. [2]

1d. In how many different ways can the price S be reached at t = 2, t = 3, t = 4 and
t = 5? [2]

1e. What is the probability of reaching the price S at t = 2, t = 3, t = 4 and t = 5?

[4]
University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

Q2 24 marks

A forester is studying the rate at which leaves fall from a mature tree. The following
table gives the probability that X number of leaves falls from the tree per minute.
Assume the number of leaves falling from minute to minute is independent.

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6+
P(X) 0.2614 0.3799 0.2031 0.1003 0.0260 0.0190 0.0104

2a. Identify the random variable under consideration. Is this random variable discrete
or continuous? Why? [3]

2b. Determine the mean number of leaves falling per minute, and the variance of the
number of leaves falling per minute. [5]

2c. Which probability distribution would best describe the number of leaves falling
from a tree? Why? [3]

2d. Determine a theoretical table similar to the one above, using the distribution you
selected in 5c. [4]

2e. Verify your conclusion by performing a goodness-of-fit test comparing the

theoretical distribution with the actual. [4]

2d. Suppose there are 15 trees per acre in a 1000 acre wood. How many leaves would
you expect to fall in two weeks? [2]

2e. The average time it takes a tree to shed all it’s leaves is 35 days, with a standard
deviation of 2 days. Suppose the distribution of the number of days for a tree to
shed all its leaves is a symmetrical, bell-shaped frequency distribution. Give a
range of days within which 95% of all trees will have shed their leaves. [3]

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University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

Q3 14 marks

It can be shown that when only two treatments are involved, ANOVA and the t-test result
in the same conclusions. Also, t2 = F. As an example, suppose that 14 randomly selected
students were divided into two groups, one consisting of 6 students and the other of 8.
One group was taught using a combination of lecture and tutorials, the other group using
a combination of lecture and television. At the end of the course, each group was given a
50-item test. The following is a list of the number correct for each of the two groups.

Lectures and Lectures and

television tutorials
19 32
17 28
23 31
22 26
17 23
16 24
27
25

3a. Using analysis of variance techniques, test H 0 that the two mean scores are equal;
α = 0.05.

3b. Using the t-test, test the same null hypothesis as in 3a.

3c. Comment on the claim that the two tests yields the same results.

Q4 8 marks

Claude, a budding investor, bought a number of shares on 31 May. The table below
shows the name, number and prices of each of the shares that be bought:

Name Number Price (at 31/05)

Sasol 1200 R60
Bidvest 500 R82
Afrox 800 R95

He kept the portfolio of shares untouched for three months. The prices at successive
month ends are given in the table below:

30/06 31/07 31/08

Sasol R70 R73 R69
Bidvest R88 R81 R79
Afrox R100 R95 R99

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University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

a) Calculate an index for Claude’s portfolio that will aid him to track the total
value of his portfolio over the period 31/05 to 31/08. The base value of the
index must be 100. [4]
b) Determine the monthly return for the portfolio for each of the three successive
months he held the portfolio. (Note that the return is defined as the percentage
change of value in the past month relative to the value at the start of the
month). [4]

Q5 21 marks
You observe the following relationship between the Zimbabwean/US Dollar
exchange rate and the number of months since April 1992.
600
Exchange rate: US$1 costs Z$:

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time (months since April 1992)

Your family owns a house in Zimbabwe and, when they left the country in April 2002,
their house was worth Z$100 000. At that stage the exchange rate was exactly 1:1, i.e.
their house was then worth US$100 000 as well. Times have changed. Your plan is to
successfully complete the FAPM course and then sell your family home in June 2005.
Your father asks you to estimate the price of the house in US$ in June 2005. You live
in Hermanus and forgot your laptop at a party in Rondebosch on Friday. All you have
available are (1) the graph above and (2) a graph of the natural logarithm (ln) of the
exchange rate shown below.
7
ln (US$/Z$ exchange rate)

6
R2 = 0.9514
5

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Time (months since April 1992)

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University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

(a) Was your conclusion that the runaway currency exchange rate is increasing
exponentially in time correct? Why or why not? [2]

(b) Establish the equation linking the graphed quantities in the second graph (ignore
the values of the random component). [3]

(c) Establish the relationship between the exchange rate and the time (in months)
elapsed since April 1992, i.e. the first graph. [3]

(d) What is your forecast for the US$/Z$ exchange rate in Jun 2005 [3]

(e) What will your parents' house be worth in June 2005, in US$, assuming (1) that it
is STILL WORTH ZIM$100 000 and (2) your forecast in (d) is correct? [2]

(f) What is meant by the R2 value on the second graph? [2]

(g) What is meant by "least squares regression"? [3]

(h) What is meant by homoscedasticity? Does the regression display that property?
[3]

Extra formulas:

Linear regression:

Correlation coefficient:

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 University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

Critical Values of the F Distribution

at a 5% level of significance
0.05

Degrees of Freedom for the Numerator

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 24 30 40
1 161.45 199.50 215.71 224.58 230.16 233.99 236.77 238.88 240.54 241.88 243.90 245.95 248.02 249.05 250.10 251.14
2 18.51 19.00 19.16 19.25 19.30 19.33 19.35 19.37 19.38 19.40 19.41 19.43 19.45 19.45 19.46 19.47
3 10.13 9.55 9.28 9.12 9.01 8.94 8.89 8.85 8.81 8.79 8.74 8.70 8.66 8.64 8.62 8.59
4 7.71 6.94 6.59 6.39 6.26 6.16 6.09 6.04 6.00 5.96 5.91 5.86 5.80 5.77 5.75 5.72
5 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19 5.05 4.95 4.88 4.82 4.77 4.74 4.68 4.62 4.56 4.53 4.50 4.46

6 5.99 5.14 4.76 4.53 4.39 4.28 4.21 4.15 4.10 4.06 4.00 3.94 3.87 3.84 3.81 3.77
7 5.59 4.74 4.35 4.12 3.97 3.87 3.79 3.73 3.68 3.64 3.57 3.51 3.44 3.41 3.38 3.34
Degrees of Freedom for the Denominator

8 5.32 4.46 4.07 3.84 3.69 3.58 3.50 3.44 3.39 3.35 3.28 3.22 3.15 3.12 3.08 3.04
9 5.12 4.26 3.86 3.63 3.48 3.37 3.29 3.23 3.18 3.14 3.07 3.01 2.94 2.90 2.86 2.83
10 4.96 4.10 3.71 3.48 3.33 3.22 3.14 3.07 3.02 2.98 2.91 2.85 2.77 2.74 2.70 2.66

11 4.84 3.98 3.59 3.36 3.20 3.09 3.01 2.95 2.90 2.85 2.79 2.72 2.65 2.61 2.57 2.53
12 4.75 3.89 3.49 3.26 3.11 3.00 2.91 2.85 2.80 2.75 2.69 2.62 2.54 2.51 2.47 2.43
13 4.67 3.81 3.41 3.18 3.03 2.92 2.83 2.77 2.71 2.67 2.60 2.53 2.46 2.42 2.38 2.34
14 4.60 3.74 3.34 3.11 2.96 2.85 2.76 2.70 2.65 2.60 2.53 2.46 2.39 2.35 2.31 2.27
15 4.54 3.68 3.29 3.06 2.90 2.79 2.71 2.64 2.59 2.54 2.48 2.40 2.33 2.29 2.25 2.20

16 4.49 3.63 3.24 3.01 2.85 2.74 2.66 2.59 2.54 2.49 2.42 2.35 2.28 2.24 2.19 2.15
17 4.45 3.59 3.20 2.96 2.81 2.70 2.61 2.55 2.49 2.45 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.19 2.15 2.10
18 4.41 3.55 3.16 2.93 2.77 2.66 2.58 2.51 2.46 2.41 2.34 2.27 2.19 2.15 2.11 2.06
19 4.38 3.52 3.13 2.90 2.74 2.63 2.54 2.48 2.42 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.16 2.11 2.07 2.03
20 4.35 3.49 3.10 2.87 2.71 2.60 2.51 2.45 2.39 2.35 2.28 2.20 2.12 2.08 2.04 1.99

21 4.32 3.47 3.07 2.84 2.68 2.57 2.49 2.42 2.37 2.32 2.25 2.18 2.10 2.05 2.01 1.96
22 4.30 3.44 3.05 2.82 2.66 2.55 2.46 2.40 2.34 2.30 2.23 2.15 2.07 2.03 1.98 1.94
23 4.28 3.42 3.03 2.80 2.64 2.53 2.44 2.37 2.32 2.27 2.20 2.13 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.91
24 4.26 3.40 3.01 2.78 2.62 2.51 2.42 2.36 2.30 2.25 2.18 2.11 2.03 1.98 1.94 1.89
25 4.24 3.39 2.99 2.76 2.60 2.49 2.40 2.34 2.28 2.24 2.16 2.09 2.01 1.96 1.92 1.87

30 4.17 3.32 2.92 2.69 2.53 2.42 2.33 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.09 2.01 1.93 1.89 1.84 1.79
40 4.08 3.23 2.84 2.61 2.45 2.34 2.25 2.18 2.12 2.08 2.00 1.92 1.84 1.79 1.74 1.69
60 4.00 3.15 2.76 2.53 2.37 2.25 2.17 2.10 2.04 1.99 1.92 1.84 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.59
120 3.92 3.07 2.68 2.45 2.29 2.18 2.09 2.02 1.96 1.91 1.83 1.75 1.66 1.61 1.55 1.50
infinity 3.84 3.00 2.61 2.37 2.21 2.10 2.01 1.94 1.88 1.83 1.75 1.67 1.57 1.52 1.46 1.40

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University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

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 University of Cape Town – FAPM Statistics module Final Exam – 24 May 2005

Critical values of the Chi-Square

Deg of
F reedom Right-Tail Area
df 0.1 0.05 0.02 0.01
1 2.706 3.841 5.412 6.635
2 4.605 5.991 7.824 9.210
3 6.251 7.815 9.837 11.345
4 7.779 9.488 11.668 13.277
5 9.236 11.070 13.388 15.086

6 10.645 12.592 15.033 16.812

7 12.017 14.067 16.622 18.475
8 13.362 15.507 18.168 20.090
9 14.684 16.919 19.679 21.666
10 15.987 18.307 21.161 23.209

11 17.275 19.675 22.618 24.725

12 18.549 21.026 24.054 26.217
13 19.812 22.362 25.471 27.688
14 21.064 23.685 26.873 29.141
15 22.307 24.996 28.259 30.578

16 23.542 26.296 29.633 32.000

17 24.769 27.587 30.995 33.409
18 25.989 28.869 32.346 34.805
19 27.204 30.144 33.687 36.191
20 28.412 31.410 35.020 37.566

21 29.615 32.671 36.343 38.932

22 30.813 33.924 37.659 40.289
23 32.007 35.172 38.968 41.638
24 33.196 36.415 40.270 42.980
25 34.382 37.652 41.566 44.314

26 35.563 38.885 42.856 45.642

27 36.741 40.113 44.140 46.963
28 37.916 41.337 45.419 48.278
29 39.087 42.557 46.693 49.588
30 40.256 43.773
8 47.962 50.892