ANALISIS

SISTEM KEPUTUSAN
KELOMPOK 1
AHMAD RIFQI ANDA : (6032222137)

ELIEZER LAKINES TARIGAN : (6032222095

PUTU AYU HS : (6032222043)

PRIHANTINA ARDANISWARIE : (6032222059)

SITI NURJANNAH : (6032211227)

QUESTION 2
Construct a Gantt chart for the
following set of activities and indicate
the project completion time and slack
for each activity:
 ANSWER 2
Project Network

Time & Slack

Activities ES EF LS LF Slack

1 0 3 0 3 0 CRITICAL

2 0 7 2 9 2

3 3 5 3 5 0 CRITICAL
Project Completion Time :
15 Weeks
4 7 12 9 14 2

5 5 11 5 11 0 CRITICAL

6 12 13 14 15 2

7 11 15 11 15 0 CRITICAL
 ANSWER 2

Gantt Chart
 QUESTION 3
Construct a Gantt chart and

project network for the

following set of activities,
compute the length of each
path in the network, and
indicate the critical path:
 ANSWER 3

Project Network
 ANSWER 3
Activities ES EF LS LF Slack

1 0 4 0 4 0 CRITICAL

2 0 7 1 8 1

3 4 12 4 12 0 CRITICAL

4 4 7 14 17 10

5 7 16 8 17 1

6 12 17 12 17 0 CRITICAL

7 12 14 21 23 9

8 17 23 17 23 0 CRITICAL

9 7 12 18 23 11

TIME & SLACK

ANSWER 3

Gantt Chart
QUESTION 10
A farm owner is going to erect a maintenance building with a connecting
electrical generator and water tank. The activities, activity descriptions,
and estimated durations are given in the following table :

(Notice that the activities are defined not by node numbers by activity
description. This alternative form expressing activities and precedence
relationship is often used in CPM/PERT). Construct the network for this
project, identify the critical path, and determine the project duration time.
 ANSWER 10
Project Network
 ANSWER 10
Activities ES EF LS LF Slack

a 0 2 0 2 0 CRITICAL

b 2 8 2 8 0 CRITICAL

c 2 6 4 8 2

d 2 4 6 8 4

e 8 12 9 13 1

f 8 13 8 13 0 CRITICAL

g 8 11 12 15 4

h 13 15 13 15 0 CRITICAL
 ANSWER 10

Gantt Chart

4 weeks 2 weeks
d g
2 weeks
1 week
c e

a b f h
0 2 8 10 13 15 weeks
QUESTION 12
The Farmer's American Bank of Leesburg is planning to
install a new computerized accounts system. Bank
management has determined the activities required to
complete the project, the precedence relationships of the
activities, and activity time estimates, as shown in the
following table :
Determine the expected
project completion time
and variance and
determine the probality
that the project will be
completed in 40 weeks or
less.
ANSWER 12

Project Network
 ANSWER 12
Time Estimates
Activity Expected Time Varians Schedule
Activities Activity Description (Weeks) Slack
Predecessor
a m b t = (a+4m+b)/6 σ2 = ((b-a)/6)2 ES EF LS LF

a Position Recruiting - 5 8 17 9 4 0 9 0 9 0 CRITICAL

b System Development - 3 12 15 11 4 0 11 7 18 7

c System Training a 4 7 10 7 1 9 16 11 18 2

d Equipment Training a 5 8 23 10 9 9 19 9 19 0 CRITICAL

e Manual System Test b, c 1 1 1 1 0 16 17 18 19 2

Preliminary System
f b, c 1 4 13 5 4 16 21 26 31 10
Changeover
Computer-Personnel
g d, e 3 6 9 6 1 19 25 19 25 0 CRITICAL
Interface
Equipment
h d, e 1 2,5 7 3 1 19 22 21 24 2
Modification
i Equipment Testing h 1 1 1 1 0 22 23 24 25 2

System Debugging
j f, g 2 2 2 2 0 25 27 31 33 6
and Isolation
Equipment
k g, i 5 8 11 8 1 25 33 25 33 0 CRITICAL
Changeover
ANSWER 12
Probability

Expected Project : 33 weeks

Probability Project Within : 40 weeks

Z = (PROBABILITY PROJECT - EXPECTED PROJECT) / Ꝺ

= ( 40 - 33) / 3,87
= 1,81
BASED ON DISTRIBUTION NORMAL
Z = 0,4649
P( Z ≤ 1,81) = 0,5 + 0,4649
= 0,9649
= 96,49 %
 QUESTION 19

Jane and Jim Smith are going to give a dinner party on Friday evening at 7:00 P.M. Their two children, Jerry
and Judy, are going to help them get ready. The Smiths will all get home from work and school at 4:00 P.M.
Jane and Jim have developed a project network to help them schedule their dinner preparations. Following is
a list of the activities, the precedence relationships, and the activity times involved in the project:

Develop a project network and determine the earliest and latest start and finish times, activity slack, and
critical path. Compute the probability that they will be ready by 7:00 P.M
 ANSWER 19

Project Network

Critical Path : c - d - f - g -j - k - o - r
 ANSWER 19
Time Estimates
Activity Expected Time Varians Schedule
Activities Activity Description (Minutes) Slack
Predecessor
a m b t = (a+4m+b)/6 σ2 = ((b-a)/6)2 ES EF LS LF

a Prepare Salad - 18 25 31 24,83 4,69 0,00 24,83 45,50 70,33 45,50

b Prepare Appetizer - 15 23 30 22,83 6,25 0,00 22,83 47,50 70,33 47,50

c Dust/Clean - 25 40 56 40,17 26,69 0,00 40,17 0,00 40,17 0,00 CRITICAL

d Vacuum c 20 30 45 30,83 17,36 40,17 71,00 40,17 71,00 0,00 CRITICAL

e Prepare Dessert a, b 12 21 30 21,00 9,00 24,83 45,83 70,33 91,33 45,50

f Set Table d 10 17 25 17,17 6,25 71,00 88,17 71,00 88,17 0,00 CRITICAL

g Get Ice from Market f 5 12 18 11,83 4,69 88,17 100,00 88,17 100,00 0,00 CRITICAL

h Prepare/Start Tenderloin e 10 20 25 19,17 6,25 45,83 65,00 91,33 110,50 45,50

Cut and Prepare

i e 9 15 22 15,17 4,69 45,83 61,00 95,33 110,50 49,50
Vegetables

j Jim Shower and Dress g 8 10 15 10,50 1,36 100,00 110,50 100,00 110,50 0,00 CRITICAL

k Jane Shower and Dress h, i, j 20 27 40 28,00 11,11 110,50 138,50 110,50 138,50 0,00 CRITICAL
Uncork Wine/Water
l h, i, j 6 10 15 10,17 2,25 110,50 120,67 128,33 138,50 17,83
Carafes

m Prepare Bread k, l 4 7 10 7,00 1,00 138,50 145,50 148,00 155,00 9,50

Prepare and Set Out

n k, l 10 14 20 14,33 2,78 138,50 152,83 146,50 160,83 8,00
Dishes

o Cut Meat k, l 7 15 20 14,50 4,69 138,50 153,00 138,50 153,00 0,00 CRITICAL

p Heat Vegetable Dish k, l 3 4 6 4,17 0,25 138,50 142,67 156,67 160,83 18,17

q Put Out Appetaizers m 4 6 7 5,83 0,25 145,50 151,33 155,00 160,83 9,50

r Pour Champagne o 5 8 10 7,83 0,69 153,00 160,83 153,00 160,83 0,00 CRITICAL
 ANSWER 19
Probability

Total Planning Time : 180 minutes (4 PM to 7 PM)

Finished Time : 06.23 P.M
Expected Project : 160,83 minutes

Z = (PROBABILITY PROJECT - EXPECTED PROJECT) / Ꝺ

= (180 - 160,83) / 8,54
= 2,25

BASED ON DISTRIBUTION NORMAL

P( Z ≤ 2,25) = 0,9878
= 98,78 %
 QUESTION 26
Lakeland-Bering Aircraft Company is preparing a contract proposal to submit to the defense
departement for a new military aircraft, the X-300J jet fighter. Part of the proposal is a
development and production schedule for completion of the first aircraft. The project consist of
three primary categories: engine design and development, development and production of the
airframe (e.g., the aircraft body), and design and development of the aircraft avionics (e.g., the
electronic systems, equipment, and other devices used to operate and control the aircraft).
Following is a list of the project activities, sith time estimates (in months) :

Develop a project network and determine the critical path, the expected project duration, and
the variance. What is the probability that the project will be completed within 8 years?
ANSWER 26
Project Network

Critical Path
2 - 5 - 9 - 11 - 14 - 16
ANSWER 26

Time Estimates
Activity Expected Time Varians Schedule
Activities Activity Description (Months) Slack
Predecessor
a m b t = (a+4m+b)/6 σ2 = ((b-a)/6)2 ES EF LS LF
1 General Design - 5 10 22 11,17 8,03 0,00 11,17 4,00 15,17 4,00
2 Engine Design - 20 33 57 34,83 38,03 0,00 34,83 0,00 34,83 0,00 CRITICAL
3 Airfram Design 1 6 17 33 17,83 20,25 11,17 29,00 15,17 33,00 4,00
4 Avionic Design 1 2 8 20 9,00 9,00 11,17 20,17 19,83 28,83 8,67
5 Develop Test Engine 2 7 10 12 9,83 0,69 34,83 44,67 34,83 44,67 0,00 CRITICAL
6 Develop Test Airframe 3 8 11 18 11,67 2,78 29,00 40,67 33,00 44,67 4,00

7 Develop Interim Avionics 4 7 15 28 15,83 12,25 20,17 36,00 28,83 44,67 8,67

8 Develop Engine 2 19 24 41 26,00 13,44 34,83 60,83 37,33 63,33 2,50

9 Assemble Test Aircraft 5, 6, 7 4 6 10 6,33 1,00 44,67 51,00 44,67 51,00 0,00 CRITICAL
10 Test Avionics 4 5 10 16 10,17 3,36 20,17 30,33 38,83 49,00 18,67
Conduct
11 Engine/Airframe Flight 9 5 9 12 8,83 1,36 51,00 59,83 51,00 59,83 0,00 CRITICAL
Trials
Conduct Avionics Flight
12 10 5 9 24 10,83 10,03 30,33 41,17 49,00 59,83 18,67
Trials
13 Produce Engine 8 11 14 15 13,67 0,44 60,83 74,50 63,33 77,00 2,50
14 Produce Airframe 11 12 15 20 15,33 1,78 59,83 75,17 61,67 77,00 1,83
15 Produce Avionics 11, 12 14 16 25 17,17 3,36 59,83 77,00 59,83 77,00 0,00 CRITICAL
16 Final Assembly/Finish 13, 14, 15 2 3 5 3,17 0,25 77,00 80,17 77,00 80,17 0,00 CRITICAL
ANSWER 26
Probability

Expected Project : 80,17 months

Probability Project Within : 8 years (96 months)

Z = (PROBABILITY PROJECT - EXPECTED PROJECT) / Ꝺ
= ( 96 - 80,17 ) / 6,69
= 2,37
BASED ON DISTRIBUTION NORMAL
Z = 2,37
P( Z ≤ 2,37) = 0,9911
= 99,11 %
THANK YOU