Planning & Scheduling (PSP) Código Revisión: RA

Compound Questions # 2 Fecha 10-Sep-22

CCM and PERT Method Pagina Pág. 1 de 2

1. A partially solved PERT problem is detailed in the table below. Times are given in weeks.
Optimistic Probable Pessimistic Expected
Activity Preceding Variance
Time Time Time Time
A -- 7 10 19
B A 2 2 8
C A 8 12 16
D A 3 5 10
E B 4 6 8
F B 6 8 10
G C, F 2 3 4
H D 2 2 8
I H 6 8 16
J G, I 4 6 14
K E, J 2 5 8
a. Calculate the expected time and variance for each activity. Enter these values in the
appropriate columns in the table above.
b. Which activities form the critical path?
c. What is the estimated time of the critical path?
d. What are the project variance and the project standard deviation?
e. What is the probability of completion of the project before week 42?
f. If the Project Manager request a range for complete the project with 95% of confidence; what
will be?
g. True or False: In PERT analysis, the identification of the critical path can be incorrect if a
noncritical activity takes substantially more than its expected time?
h. True or False: Variation in activities that are not on the critical path cannot affect the overall
project completion time? Why?
i. True or False: The standard deviation of project duration is the average of the standard
deviation of all activities on the critical path? Why?
j. True or False: We can use a Gaussian distribution in PERT analysis to calculate expected
activity times and variances. after all, the theorem of limit central is used here? Why?

Para ganar hay que poner toda la fuerza en movimiento. Carl Von Clausewitz
Carlos Javier Carranza Baez I PfMP PgMP PMP CCP PSP PRMP CPEM MBA Página 1 de 2
 Planning & Scheduling (PSP) Código Revisión: RA
Compound Questions # 2 Fecha 10-Sep-22
CCM and PERT Method Pagina Pág. 2 de 2

2. Estimating a buffer of time for a Project.

You are planning the manufacture of a new product. Your project estimate results in an expected net
project cost of $400,000 and a total expected duration of 224 days. In addition, your analysis has come
up with the following risks (keep in mind that in reality you will have many more risks than the five listed
here):
1. A 5 percent probability of a stakeholder making a major change to the project, costing the
project $75,000 and adding 14 days to the schedule.
2. A 15 percent probability of gaining a new, valuable resource, making the project $30,000
cheaper than expected and saving 28 days.
3. A 75 percent probability that the software will be delayed in its release from the vendor,
resulting in an extra $3,000 labor expense and a 56-day delay.
4. A 5 percent probability that the coding may be simpler than expected, resulting in a $2,500
savings and saving 14 days.
5. A 15 percent probability of a major bug causing $8,000 of rework and a 21-day delay.
Answer the following questions:
a. What is the EMV of these risks? What is the EV (time)?
b. What is the optimistic estimate duration (only good things happen)?
c. With no further risk analysis, how much time will management expect to take the project?
d. What is the schedule baseline for the project?
e. What is the pessimistic estimate duration (only bad things happen)?

Para ganar hay que poner toda la fuerza en movimiento. Carl Von Clausewitz
Carlos Javier Carranza Baez I PfMP PgMP PMP CCP PSP PRMP CPEM MBA Página 2 de 2