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SCENARIO PLANNING: Strategy planning acti vity in which Managers brainstorm to identify possible future scenarios.
top management envisions diff erent what-if scenarios to Although managers often tend to overlook pessimistic future
anti cipate plausible futures in order to derive strategic scenarios, it’s imperative to consider negative scenarios
responses carefully.
Managers need to consider the existence of black swans events.
Strategic planning: In a fast-changing environment happens in
I.e, incidents that describe highly improbable but high-impact
a similar fashion to do planning in a fire department. We don’t
events.
know when or where is going to be the next fire, but we can
make contingency plans.
2. Formulation Stage:
Scenario planning:
Teams develop different strategic plans to address possible
- Asks those “what if” questions
future scenarios. These what-if question force managers to
- Starts with a top-down approach to the strategy process
create contingency detail plans before the events occur. Finally,
- Top management envisions different scenarios to anticipate
managers transform the most viable options into full-fledge
plausible futures in order to derive strategic responses.
detailed strategic plans that can activate and executed as
Examples:
needed.
o New laws might restrict carbon emission
o Demographic shifts may alter the ethnic diversity of
Scenario planning gives the enterprise flexibility because if a
a nation new scenario should emerge, the firm won't lose any time
Typical scenario planning: optimistic and pessimistic coming up with a new strategy.
Model a scenario planning: 3. Implementation Stage:
Managers execute the dominant strategic plan, the option that Strategic planning is not the same as strategic thinking
top managers decide most closely matches the current reality. according to the critics of top-bottom and scenario planning.
Dominant strategic plan: The strategic option top managers Strategic planning process: These are too regimented and
decide most closely matches the current reality and which is confining. Also has a lack of flexibility needed for quick and
then executed. effective responses. Managers with a more formalized
approach to the strategy process may also fall prey to an
illusion of control, which describes a tendency by managers to
overestimate their ability to control events.
Spanish:
Proceso de planificación estratégica: Son demasiado
regimentados y confinados. Además, carecen de la flexibilidad
necesaria para dar respuestas rápidas y eficaces. Los directivos
con un enfoque más formalizado del proceso de estrategia
también pueden ser presa de una ilusión de control, que
describe una tendencia de los directivos a sobrestimar su
capacidad para controlar los acontecimientos.
Spanish: