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Hydrologic modeling of Guinale River

Basin using HEC-HMS and synthetic
aperture radar

Ferdinand Bien, Joanaviva Plopenio

Ferdinand E. Bien, Joanaviva C. Plopenio, "Hydrologic modeling of Guinale

River Basin using HEC-HMS and synthetic aperture radar," Proc. SPIE
10444, Fifth International Conference on Remote Sensing and
Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2017), 104440N (6 September
2017); doi: 10.1117/12.2277690

Event: Fifth International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation

of the Environment (RSCy2017), 2017, Paphos, Cyprus

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 Hydrologic modeling of Guinale River Basin using HEC-HMS and
Synthetic Aperture Radar
Ferdinand E. Bien*a and Joanaviva C. Plopeniob
a
Chief Science Research Specialist Phil-LiDAR 1, Ateneo de Naga University, Ateneo Avenue,
Bagumbayan Sur, Naga City, 4400, Philippines; bProject Leader Phil-LiDAR 1, Ateneo de Naga
University, Ateneo Avenue, Bagumbayan Sur, Naga City, 4400, Philippines

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the methods and results of hydrologic modeling of Guinale river basin through the use of HEC-HMS
software and Synthetic Aperture Radar Digital Elevation Model (SAR DEM). Guinale River Basin is located in the
province of Albay, Philippines which is one of the river basins covered by the Ateneo de Naga University (ADNU)
Phil-LiDAR 1. This research project was funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) through the
Philippine Council for Industry, Energy and Emerging Technology Research and Development (PCIEERD). Its objectives
are to simulate the hydrologic model of Guinale River basin using HEC-HMS software and SAR DEM. Its basin covers an
area of 165.395 sq.km. and the hydrologic model was calibrated using the storm event typhoon Nona (international name
Melor). Its parameter had undergone a series of optimization processes of HEC-HMS software in order to produce an
acceptable level of model efficiency. The Nash-Sutcliffe (E), Percent Bias and Standard Deviation Ratio were used to
measure the model efficiency, giving values of 0.880, 0.260 and 0.346 respectively which resulted to a “very good”
performance rating of the model. The flood inundation model was simulated using Legazpi Rainfall Intensity Duration
Frequency Curves (RIDF) and HEC-RAS software developed by the US Army corps of Engineers (USACE). This
hydrologic model will provide the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (MDRRMO), Local
Government units (LGUs) and the community a tool for the prediction of runoff in the area.

Keywords: SAR DEM, rainfall-runoff simulation, model calibration, model validation

1. INTRODUCTION

Following the trends of global flood-related disasters there is a dire need to look for a sustainable solution to mitigate flood
risk, and ultimately be able to forecast flooding on identified flood-risk areas. Production of hydrologic models is an
effective flood-risk preventive measure. The hydrologic model can be used as a tool for the prediction of runoff.

Because Philippines is among world’s most disaster prone countries, one of the main thrusts of the government program is
to create a disaster risk reduction management system whose main vision is to establish safer, adaptive and resilient
Filipino communities against these natural disasters. In order to achieve this, there are four areas that must be
institutionalized: disaster prevention and mitigation, disaster preparedness, disaster response, and disaster rehabilitation
and recovery6. The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) is the responsible agency for the disaster prevention
and mitigation. It is mandated to provide concerned agencies as well as the public with timely warnings and information to
develop appropriate mitigation strategies for disaster and climate change resilient communities using state of the art
technologies and methodologies. The main implementing institution of the DOST is the University of the Philippines,
Diliman. The UP-DOST team has officially commissioned the Higher Education Institutions (HEI’s) and State
Universities and Colleges (SUC’s) to perform the hydrologic model and flood models of their respective assigned
watershed using HEC-HMS and SAR DEM.

Hydrologic modeling is a complex task and hydrologic models should be well calibrated to increase the user’s confidence
in its predictive ability4. An observed discharge is taken from an identified hydrometric station, the Imperial Bridge. An
event (heavy rainfall and/or typhoon) must trigger a significant increase of discharge, and observation must be recorded
before, during and after the event. The simulated discharge is those generated from the model using the same rainfall data.

*freddie.bien@gmail.com; Tel: +63(054) 473-8447 loc. 2217

Fifth International Conf. on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2017), Kyriacos Themistocleous,
Silas Michaelides, Giorgos Papadavid, Vincent Ambrosia, Gunter Schreier, Diofantos G. Hadjimitsis, Eds.,
Proc. of SPIE Vol. 10444, 104440N · © 2017 SPIE · CCC code: 0277-786X/17/$18 · doi: 10.1117/12.2277690

Proc. of SPIE Vol. 10444 104440N-1

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 Theoretically, the simulated discharge must equal the observed data; otherwise, the hydrologic model must undergo the
process of calibration until the two would match.

The HEC-HMS version 3.5 is used in the calibration since the tool includes optimization manager that allows automated
model calibration. Finally, a statistical process must be used to measure the model efficiency (how the simulated discharge
matches with the observed discharge) and must achieve an acceptable performance rating.

2. METHODOLODY

2.1 Study Area

Guinale watershed lies in the province of Albay that has a total land area of 165.395 sq.km. The watershed extends to the
municipality of Malinao and Tabacco City which covers a total of 47 barangays. It is located at coordinates
13° 21’29.28”North and 123° 38'8.36” East.

LOCATION MAP
OF
GUINALE RIVER BASIN

Legend
n1 Watershed Boundary
- Rivera and Streams
= HEC HMS Model Domain

0 300 600 1,200 1,800

Kilometers

u
PROJECTION:
Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTM) Zone 51N
World Geodetic System
(WGS) 1984

lie e
123.350'E 123'40'0£

Figure 1. The study area Guinale Watershed

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 2.2 HEC-HMS Model Development

SAR DEM
Soil and Land Cover Map
Digitized River Network

HEC -HMS MODEL

DEVELOPMENT

PRECIPITATION HEC -HMS MODEL DISCHARGE FROM

FROM AN EVENT CALIBRATION RAINFALL EVENT

RIDF CALIBRATED
(5, 25 and 100yr) HEC -HMS MODEL

SIMULATION OF DISCHARGE l
USING HEC -RAS
J5, 25 and 100yr RETURN PERIOD)}

Figure 2. HEC-HMS Model development framework

The major input in the creation of the HEC-HMS Model includes the following: 10-m SAR DEM (Figure 3), digitized river
network, soil map (Figure 4), and land cover map (Figure 5). The HEC-HMS model was generated using the GeoHMS
toolbar in the ARC GIS software. The soil map and land cover map are the important inputs in determining the Manning’s
coefficient. With the advent of new knowledge and technology, these processes can be modeled by different modeling
approaches2, one of these is using HEC-HMS Model. HEC-HMS is the software developed by the US Army Corps of
Engineers to simulate the rainfall-runoff processes. Rainfall-runoff models using HEC-HMS have been widely used to
formulate a reliable relationship between the rainfall (input of the model) and runoff (output of the model) 1. The
HEC-HMS model of Guinale watershed consists of 13 sub-basins, 6 junctions and 6 reaches. The HEC-HMS model is
illustrated in Figure 6. The precipitation from Typhoon Nona (December 14-15, 2015) was taken from San Rafael St. Rain
gauge installed by the Department of Science and Technology – Advance Science and Technology Institute
(DOST-ASTI). The total rain from San Rafael St. rain gauge is 61.71mm and peaked to 7.07mm on December 14, 2015 at
5:45 pm. The lag time between the peak rainfall and discharge is eight hours and five minutes as seen in Figure 7.

The Hydrologic process was organized by HEC-HMS into six components namely, meteorologic component, rainfall loss,
direct runoff, river routing, base flow and reservoir component 7. Each of the components uses several processes. In this
study the following processes were used: The user hyetograph was used in modeling the meteorologic component, the SCS
curve number method was used to model the rainfall loss component, the Clark Unit Hydrograph method was used for the
runoff component, Muskingum-Cunge was used to model the river routing, and the Recession method was used in the base
flow model.

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 Sythetic Aperlre Radar
Glglbl ElevationMode lot
Guinale Rivet-Basin

Legend

Legend
Watershed Boundary
Municipal Boundary

SAR_DEM
Value
Mgn:241244

Low: -0 .733172

0 345 690 1386

Klometers

PROJECTION:
Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTAB Zone 61111
LWdd Gendetk System
(WGS)19e0

Figure 3. SAR DEM of Guinale River Basin

The soil shape file was taken in 2004 from the Bureau of Soils. This is under the Department of Environment and Natural
Resources Management. The land cover shape file is from the National Mapping and Resource information Authority
(NAMRIA).

SOIL MAP OF
GUINALE
RIVER BASIN

Legend
NEC Rigs model Domain
- Rivers and streams
eouo
Soil Classes
sin

Sand

Loam
CI, Loam
aw. Loam

sai Lam a
Sin Clay
ME Saner Ont Loam
R eq on Leans
N/eFeol
Unarrarernated

0200100 6001200
Kilometers
PROJECTION:
Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTM)Zone SIN
World Geodetic System

iIß
(WGS)198d

LLa
Figure 4. The soil map of Guinale river basin.

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 LAND COVER MAP OF
GUINALE
RIVER BASIN

Legend
oHEC [Imam
Watershed Boundaries

¡ 4CrCas
mein rsrea
Grl

Grassland
ae

Forest Plantation
na

-- peen ore,
Gases Forest
Men mre
Water Girlies
Gu rupArea
Cultivated
Barren
Marshland

0 250500 1.000 1 500

Kilometers

it
PROJECTION:
Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTM)Zone SIN
World Geodetic System
(WGS)1084

Figure 5. The land cover map of Guinale river basin

Legend
HEC -HMS Model Domain

HMS Symbology
itt Diversion
(IV Junction
WReservoir
Sink
Source
Subbasln
Llnklype
Basin Connector
Reach

Figure 6. Guinale river basin HEC-HMS Model

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 2.3 HEC-HMS MODEL CALIBRATION

The main inputs in the model calibration are the rainfall from an event and the discharge from the designated bridge from
the downstream side of the river. Figure 7 shows rainfall and discharge data used in the calibration. For this study, the
discharge used to calibrate the HEC HMS Model was taken from the imperial Bridge, Malinao Albay (13° 24' 12.6"N,
123°42'6.44"E). This was recorded on December 14-15, 2015 during typhoon Nona. The HEC-HMS version 3.5 was used
to calibrate the hydrologic model that includes optimization manager which allows automated model calibration. A series
of iteration process was performed to match the observed discharge taken from an event and the simulated discharge.

N m

a, o
ro
O

zo '
+
l
ó $ó
0 0

o
Discharge (cu.mJs)

Rainfall Value (mm)

o
(
0 ó

lot
ó0 óó0 ó
ó

>g9

ó
ó
G 12/15/2015 3:30
12/15/2015 4:40
12/14/2015 17:00
12/14/2015 18:10
12/14/2015 19:20
12/14/2015 20:30
12/14/2015 21:40
12/14/2015 22:50

12/15/2015 10:30
12/15/2015 11:40
12/15/2015 12:50
12/15/2015 14:00
12/15/2015 15:10
12/15/2015 16:20
12/15/2015 17:30
CD 12/15/2015 9:20
a. 12/15/2015 7:00
12/15/2015 0:00
12/15/2015 1:10
12/15/2015 2:20

12/15/2015 8:10
g 12/15/2015 5:50

Figure 7. Guinale Rainfall and Discharge data used in model calibration

2.4 Legazpi RIDF and HEC-HMS outflow

The Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) computed Rainfall
Intensity Duration Frequency (RIDF) values for the Legazpi RIDF. This station was chosen based on its proximity to the
Guinale watershed. The extreme values for this watershed were computed based on a 26-year record. Three return periods
were used, namely, 5-, 25-, and 100-year RIDF. All return periods are 24 hours long and peaks after 12 hours. The data for
the Legazpi RIDF serve as an input to the calibrated HMS model to determine the outflow in the river for each return
period. The HEC-HMS outflows are shown in Figure 8.

Guinale IIEC HNIS Outflow using Legazpi RIDF

.-,
6000
8 5000 20 E
4000 E
40
3000
Vi 2000 60
á woo
a0,0
V
0
0o .0N0 rl
0 04 0v)0o0. 0N0mn
0 0O.-^
0 0 0N0m0 v0 O.-
O.- N m4 vi r 00 Ói Ó.-- el ä
0 0N0
N0 [ 00 0A N Ñ Ñ
- 80
100

Time
Q (5 -yr return period) Q (25 yr return period)
Q (100 -yr return retiod) rainfall (5 -yr return period)
rainfall (25 -yr return period) rainfall (100-yr return period1

Figure 8. Guinale HEC-HMS Outflow using Legazpi RIDF (5-, 25-, and 100-yr return period)

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 3.0 Results and Discussion

Each method in HEC-HMS has parameters and the values of these parameters were entered as input to the model to obtain
the simulated runoff hydrographs. While some parameters like the measurements of stream and basin characteristics were
estimated by observation, some underwent optimization process. When the required parameters cannot be estimated
accurately, the model parameters are calibrated. Model calibration is a systematic process of adjusting model parameter
values until model results match with acceptable observed data. Calibration can either be manual or automated. Manual
calibration relies on the user’s knowledge of the basins physical properties and expertise in hydrologic modeling. In this
study, automated calibration was used where the model parameters were iteratively adjusted. The optimum parameters
were found as a result of a systematic search process that yielded the best fit between the observed and the computed
runoffs. This systematic search process is called optimization. Optimization begins from initial parameter estimates and
adjusts them so that the simulated results match the observed streamflow as closely as possible.

The HEC-HMS Model version 3.5 includes optimization manager that allows automated model calibration. The initial
values of parameters that are subject to automated calibration are required to start an optimization process. In this study, the
optimization output was assessed by means of the flow comparison graph that shows the modeled and observed
hydrographs at the optimization location. Figure 9 shows the observed flow and the simulated flow.
oó
o
t.4
Discharge, (cu.m./sec)

oó
Nn

SID
oó
v. óv ó
oó
.

%
oó
ó oó

12/15/201511:40
12/15/2015 10:30

12/15/2015 12:50
12/15/2015 14:00
12/15/2015 15:10
12/15/2015 16:20
12/15/2015 17:30
12/15/2015 5:50
12/15/2015 7:00
12/15/2015 8:10
12/15/2015 9:20
12/15/2015 4:40
12/14/2015 17:00
12/14/2015 18:10
12/14/2015 19:20
12/14/2015 20:30
12/14/2015 21:40
12/14/2015 22:50
12/15/2015 0:00
12/15/2015 1:10
12/15/2015 2:20
12/15/2015 3:30

Figure 9. Outflow Hydrograph produced by the HEC-HMS model compared with observed outflow

Three statistical criteria were used to better evaluate the calibrated model performance such as: Nash and Sutcliffe Model
Efficiency (NSE)3, Percent Bias Ratio (PBR) and Standard Deviation Ratio (SDR). The three parameters were computed
separately using the statistical equation given below.
 n sim 2 
  Yi  Yi 
obs
 
The Nash-Sutcliffe (E) E  1   in1  (1)

  
Yi  Yi
obs mean 2 
 
i 1

 Y 
n
Percent Bias (2)
i
obs
 Yi sim *100
PBIAS  i 1
n

Y
i 1
i
obs

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  Y 
n

i
obs
 Yi sim
i 1
RSR 
 Y 
n
2
and Standard Deviation Ratio i
obs
 Yi mean (3)
i 1

Table 1. Criteria used for model validation and performance rating

Performance Statistic
Standard deviation
Rating Nash-Sutcliffe (E) Percent Bias (PBIAS) Ratio (RSR)
Very Good 0.75 < E ≤ 1.00 PBIAS < ±10 0.00 < RSR ≤ 0.50
Good 0.75 < E ≤ 1.00 ±10 ≤ PBIAS < ±10 0.50 < RSR ≤ 0.60
Satisfactory 0.5 < E ≤ 0.65 ±15 ≤ PBIAS < ±25 0.60 < RSR ≤ 0.70
Unsatisfactory E ≤ 0.50 PBIAS ≥ ±25 RSR > 0.70

Table 2. Result of the model validation and performance rating

Statistics Parameter Computed Value Remarks

Nash-Sutcliffe (E) 0.880 Very Good
Percent Bias (PBIAS) 0.260 Very Good
Standard deviation Ratio (RSR) 0.346 Very Good

A summary of the total precipitation, peak rainfall, peak outflow and time to peak of Guinale discharge using the Legazpi
Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (RIDF) in three different return periods is shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Peak values of the Guinale outflow using the Legazpi RIDF

Total Peak
RIDF Precipitation rainfall Peak outflow Time to Peak
Period (mm) (mm) (cu.m./s)
5-Year 260.50 29.1 1,384.2 1 hour, 40 minutes
25-Year 386.40 41.3 2,084.4 1 hour, 30 minutes
100-Year 490.30 51.3 2,664.3 1hour, 30 minutes

The peak outflow in table 3 was simulated using Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS)
software for 100-yr return period which resulted to figure 9. The HEC-RAS software version 4.1.0. HEC-RAS software
was developed by the US Army corps of Engineers which allows the user to perform one-dimensional steady flow
analysis8.

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 Figure 10. River inundation for 100-yr RIDF

4. CONCLUSION

Guinale watershed was the identified subject of this research. The main objective of the study is to produce an event-based
rainfall-runoff model and simulation of Guinale watershed that can produce reliable hydrologic model. In this study,
Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) tools and the SAR DEM were used to achieve the research objective of creating the
hydrologic model.

The HEC-HMS model was used for the simulation of the runoff hydrograph of Guinale Watershed. The structure of the
event model comprised six components that described the main hydrologic processes in the river basin. The SCS curve
number method was used to model the rainfall loss component, the Clark Unit Hydrograph method was used for the runoff
component, Muskingum-Cunge was used to model the river routing, and the Recession method was used in the base flow
model. The HEC-HMS Model version 3.5 optimization manager was utilized in the calibration method. Initial parameter
estimates were inputted in the model, and allowed the optimization process to adjust them so that the simulated results
match the observed streamflow as closely as possible.

Field data validation was conducted at Imperial Bridge, the identified hydrometric station. Typhoon Nona was used as the
event to produce the actual rainfall-runoff measurements. The field validation also resulted to a Stage-Discharge model
that could reliably predict the discharge based on the recorded water elevation measurements from the deployed depth
gauge in the Imperial Bridge.

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 The statistical criteria of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (E), percent bias (PBIAS) and Standard deviation ratio (SDR)
were used on observed and simulated discharge to assess the performance of the model, and had been found with values
0.880, 0.260 and 0.346 respectively, indicating a good performance of the model for simulation of stream flow. Thus, the
study shows that based on the typhoon event Nona, the calibrated model performs well in simulating stream flow and is
usable in rainfall-runoff simulation. The calibrated model was simulated using the Legazpi RIDF for three different return
periods (5, 25 and 100-year) which produced the following peak discharge 1,384.2 cu.m./sec, 2,084.4 cu.m./sec and
2,664.3 cu.m./sec respectively. This discharge was used to simulate the 1-D flood inundation of the River system using
HEC-RAS software.

For future study, it is recommended that the rainfall-runoff simulation be further tested and calibrated using future
hydrologic events to increase the confidence level of its simulation performance.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research is an output of the “Phil-LiDAR 1: Nationwide Hazard Mapping Using LiDAR: Bicol Region” project. We
are grateful to the monitoring agency the Philippine Council for Industry, Energy and Emerging Technology Research and
Development (PCIEERD), the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) for the financial support, and the
University of the Philippines Disaster Risk and Exposure for Mitigation (UP DREAM) Phil-LiDAR 1 Program for
providing the SAR DEM, soil map, land cover map and Legaspi RIDF used in this work. We also thank all ADNU
Phil-LiDAR 1 technical staff and assistants, as well as the LGUs in the Guinale River Basin for their assistance during the
conduct of the flow measurements and flood validation surveys. This research was conducted in the Ateneo de Naga
University, Philippines.
.
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