1 USING SWAT MODEL TO IDENTIFY EROSION PRONE AREAS AND TO

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2 ESTIMATE SOIL LOSS AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN MOGI GUAÇU

3 RIVER BASIN IN SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL

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4 Franciane Mendonça dos Santos1, Natália de Souza Pelinson2*, Rodrigo Proença de

5 Oliveira3, José Augusto Di Lollo4

6 Conflict of interest: None

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1 Post-Doctoral Researcher, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal.
E-mail: fmdsantos@fc.ul.pt
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2 Visiting Researcher, Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Urbanism and Geography (FAENG), Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul
(UFMS), Av. Costa e Silva - Pioneiros, 79070-900, Campo Grande - MS, Brazil (*Corresponding author). E-mail: natalia.pelinson@gmail.com
3 CERIS, Civil Engineering Research and Inovation for Sustainability, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal. Av. Rovisco
Pais, 1049-001, Lisboa – Portugal. E-mail: rodrigopoliveira@tecnico.ulisboa.pt
4 Sao Paulo State University (UNESP), Graduate Program in Civil Engineering, Brazil, Alameda Bahia, 550, CEP 15385-000, Ilha Solteira - SP,
Brazil. E-mail: jose.lollo@unesp.br

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 7 Abstract: Water-driven erosion associated to the transport and deposition of sediments

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8 in watersheds may lead to contamination problems causing significant damage to land

9 and infrastructures. The key factors that influence the erosive processes are well-known

10 and include precipitation rate, terrain topography, soil type, and vegetation cover. The

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11 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) considers these factors and may be used to

12 identify areas susceptible to soil erosion and to estimate soil loss and sediment transport

13 and deposition. To corroborate this assumption, real data on linear erosion and sediment

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14 transport from the Mogi Guaçu River Basin, in southeastern Brazil, were used to validate

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15 SWAT estimates. The study shows that the model is able to identify soil eroded areas and

16 replicate the scale and variation pattern of sediment production, although not with great

17
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precision. Hence, it can successfully be used for prioritizing areas that require action and

18 for evaluating alternative soil management and conservation practices to mitigate erosive
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19 processes.

20 Keywords - geo-hydrological modeling; rural erosion; erosion classification; soil

21 degradation.
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 22 1. Introduction

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23 The degradation processes of natural resources, particularly soils and water, increasingly

24 threatens many human activities (FAO 2011, WWAP 2015), to the point that MEA (2005)

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25 describes the situation as dangerously close to environmental collapse. Water erosion has

26 the potential to reduce soil fertility and agricultural land productivity, degrade water

27 quality, affect water availability, intensify reservoir sedimentation, and impact road

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28 infrastructures (Hardouz and Damnati, 2020).

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29 Erosive phenomena can generate different results depending on well-discussed local

30 factors, such as the natural properties of the soil, terrain relief, vegetation cover, and

precipitation regimen. The measurement and evaluation of soil erosion and sediment
31
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32 production are fundamental in the planning and management of watersheds.
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33 Some watershed hydrological models have the ability to simulate hydrosedimentological

34 dynamics, including the transport of sediment, nutrients, and toxic materials transport

35 from urban, agricultural, and forested lands to water bodies (Pack et al., 2008). If properly
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36 calibrated and validated using monitored data, these models constitute well-structured

37 and well-fitted tools that may contribute to understanding the effects of changes in soil
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38 use and management and help control the deleterious impacts of sediments on water

39 resources (Santos et al. 2020, Rapalo et al. 2021).

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40 In Brazil, the low availability of monitored data on erosion and sediment transport

41 hampers model calibration and validation, makes it difficult to evaluate models’

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42 performance, and often leads to errors in evaluating the hydro sedimentological dynamics

43 of a watershed. This manuscript proposes to carry out the calibration and validation using
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44 real Brazilian data of linear erosion for an important basin in southeastern Brazil, in the

45 state of São Paulo. The Mogi Guaçu River Basin was one of the most affected by an

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 46 extended drought in 2014 and 2015 (Galinaro et al., 2021), which seriously impacted the

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47 ability to sustain the water supply. The monitored data include soil erosion data obtained

48 from extensive fieldwork and sediment transport data recorded at two river gages. To

49 model hydro sedimentological dynamics, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)

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50 model was used to identify erosion-prone areas, to predict soil erosion in the watershed,

51 and to evaluate flow and sediment yield at different locations of the river network.

Erosive processes as the main mechanism of environmental degradation in this portion of

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52

53 the Mogi-Guaçu River Basin have been studied (Lossardo and Lorandi 2014, Costa, et al.

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54 2015; Dorici et al. 2016, Galiano et al. 2021), but still a research gap remains and the

55 existing databases of hydrological and climatic conditions fail to provide reliable

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56 predictions for water management.

Many methods are available for modeling sediment from watershed surfaces (Wischmeier
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57

58 and Smith 1965 and 1978; Renard 1997; Williams 1975; Leavesley et al. 1983; Bicknell

59 et al. 2001). The surface erosion method used by the SWAT model is the Modified
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60 Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) method. William (1975) developed the MUSLE

61 method to predict sheet and rill erosion from a single rainfall runoff event.
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62 SWAT is indicated as one of the most used models in recent years (Borreli et al. 2021),

63 with such research being discussed by our peers and constantly re-evaluated for
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64 improvement (Gessesse et al. 2015, Yesuf et al. 2015). SWAT is widely used to assess

65 climate change and hydrological models related to Land use and land cover (LULC)
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66 changes (Affessa et al. 2022, Serrao et al. 2022), and hydrological responses (Son et al.

67 2021). A state-of-the-art review on the erosion process modeling (Bezak et al. 2021)

68 reveals that RUSLE is significantly more cited than the original USLE, and that SWAT
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69 receives even more citations (around 6% of the reviewed papers), showing its wide use

70 among the technical and scientific community.

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 71 To evaluate SWAT’s ability to simulate soil erosion, sediment production, streamflow,

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72 and sediment yield a spatial and alphanumeric database was created using records from

73 the Mogi Guaçu River Basin, including in situ measurements of linear soil erosion. The

74 model was calibrated and validated using daily and monthly streamflow records from

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75 1980 to 2018, and bimonthly sediment yield data from 2009 to 2018. The results were

76 considered satisfactory.

Subsequently, a map of sediment production in the study area was generated and

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78 compared with erosion data compiled by the IPT (2012), aggregated by HRUs adopted

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79 by SWAT. Results show a tendency for greater erosive processes to occur in the upper

80 part of the basin. er

81 SWAT ability to corroborate current erosion records and to evaluate future different land

management options, proposed by citizens and technicians, shows that it can become an
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83 effective and applicable tool for designing public policies that mitigate environmental

84 degradation in the basin. The model’s spatial distributed results and their visual
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85 representation in maps is key to support the communication effort and to build local

86 consensus on early intervention aiming at the recovery of degraded areas.

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87 2. Materials and methods

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88 2.1. SWAT model

89 2.1.1. Model description

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90 SWAT is a semi-distributed model applied to simulate water, sediment, and chemical

91 flow in watersheds considering multiple climatic conditions, soil types, channel

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92 characteristics, land use, as well as different agricultural managements (Arnold et al.

93 2012). This study used SWAT 2012 released in 2018.

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 94 The Mogi Guaçu basin was first sectioned into sub-basins, each one sub-divided into

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95 hydrological response units (HRUs) with a predominant specific combination of land

96 cover, soil, slope, and management practices. Each sub-basin has at least one HRU and

97 one main channel and the outlets of each are water and the mass inflow into the river

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98 network at the outlet of the upstream river network (Neitsch et al. 2009). The Mogi Guaçu

99 river basin was divided into 99 delineated sub-basins and 99 HRUs as they consisted of

100 unique combinations of land cover, soils, and slope in each sub-basin considering the

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101 predominant aspects of each area.

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102 SWAT water flow calculation through the basin includes the computation of the amounts

103 of water, sediment, nutrients, and pesticides that reach the main channel in each sub-
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104 basin. In a second stage, the movement of water, sediments and contaminants arriving

105 through the channel network to the outlet of the basin is traced (Neitsch et al. 2009;
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106 Neitsch et al. 2011, Arnaldo et al. 2012).

107 The Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) method is the default model for estimating
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108 surface runoff and was applied in this study. The “alternative method” of estimating the

109 SCS retention parameter in SWAT was selected as this parameter may vary according to
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110 the evapotranspiration (Neitsch et al. 2009). This method was added since the traditional

111 one may predict excessive runoff values, which was the case in our preliminary runs.
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112 The Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) is used to estimate erosion and

113 sediment production (Williams, 1975). The production of sediment carried by the surface
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114 flow on a specific day can be calculated considering:

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115

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 116 where the 𝑆𝑌𝑡 is the sediment yield carried by superficial flow on a day (t), 𝐻𝑡 is the daily

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117 surface runoff volume (mm), 𝑇𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 3
𝑡 is the peak runoff rate (m /s), 𝐴ℎ𝑟𝑢 is the HRU area

118 (ha), 𝐾𝑠 is the USLE/MUSLE soil erodibility, C is the USLE/MUSLE cover and

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119 management factor, P is the USLE/MUSLE support practice factor, LS is the

120 USLE/MUSLE topographic factor and CFRG is the coarse fragment factor. The CFRG

121 can be calculated as:

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122 𝐶𝐹𝑅𝐺 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝( ‒ 0.053 ∙ 𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑘) (2)

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123 Where rock would express the percentage (%) of soil particles in the first layer with a

124 diameter larger than 2mm. The total sediment load reaching the stream, 𝑆𝑇𝑡, can be

125
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explained as the sum of the sediments transported through the superficial runoff, 𝑆𝑆𝑡, and

126 the lateral and ground flow, 𝑆𝐿𝐺

𝑡:
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127 𝑆𝑇𝑡 = 𝑆𝑆𝑡+𝑆𝐿𝐺
𝑡 (3)

128 The sediment transported by surface runoff, 𝑆𝑆𝑡, is estimated from total sediment yield
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129 from the watershed, 𝑆𝑌𝑡 assuming that a part is temporarily retained by vegetation or in
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130 ponds. The lag is applied to:

131 (
𝑆𝑆𝑡 = (𝑆𝑌𝑡 + 𝑆𝑌𝑡 ‒ 1) ∙ 1 ‒ 𝑒𝑥𝑝 [ ‒ 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑙𝑎𝑔
𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐 ]) (4)
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132 where 𝑆𝑆𝑡 is the sediment throughout the channel in a day (t), the coefficients 𝑆𝑌𝑡 and
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133 𝑆𝑌𝑡 ‒ 1 are the amounts of sediment load generated in the HRU on days t and t-1. The

134 (
expression 1 ‒ 𝑒𝑥𝑝 [ ‒ 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑙𝑎𝑔
𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐 ]) in Equation (4) represents the fraction of the total available
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135 sediment allowed to enter the reach on any one day. 𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐 is the HRU time of

136 concentration (h) and surlag is the surface runoff lag coefficient.

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 137 In large sub-basins, with a concentration time of more than 1 day, only a part of the

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138 surface runoff would reach the main channel on the same day it is generated. To account

139 for this factor, SWAT incorporates a feature related to the storage of runoff to lag a

140 portion of the surface water (Neitsch et al. 2002, Neitsch et al. 2009).

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141 SWAT assumes that lateral and underground flows contribute to sediment transport into

142 the main channel and estimates this load using the equation:

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(𝐿𝑡 + 𝐺𝑡) ∙ 𝐴ℎ𝑟𝑢 ∙ 𝑆𝐶
143 𝑆𝐿𝐺
𝑡 = (5)

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144 where 𝑆𝐿𝐺

𝑡 represents the sediment loading in the lateral and groundwater flow in ttons 𝐿𝑡

145
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is the lateral flow for a specific day (mm), 𝐺𝑡 is the groundwater flow for a day (mm),

146 𝐴ℎ𝑟𝑢 expresses the area of the HRU (km2), and 𝑆𝐶 is the user-specified sediment
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147 concentration in lateral and groundwater flows (mg/L).

148 Finally, the sediment that reaches the channel is routed considering deposition and

149 erosion as a function of sediment load and flow transport capacity. The model estimated
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150 the sediment transport capacity using a modification of the Bagnold equation (Bagnold,
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151 1977).

152 2.1.2. Sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation

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153 Before calibration and validation, a sensitivity analysis was performed using the

154 Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) algorithms by SWAT-CUP to identify the

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155 parameters that are most important in predicting flow and sediment production (Table 1).

156 The parameters were manually adjusted until the predicted daily streamflow and sediment
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157 yield approximately matched the monitoring records. As sediment yield depends on flow,

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 158 the flow generation parameters were calibrated first, followed by the sediment parameters

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159 (Arnold et al., 2015).

160 Table 1. Parameters applied in the SWAT model with their default and calibrated values.

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Default Calibrated
Parameters Definition Unit Range
value value

ALPHA_BF.gw Base flow alpha factor days 0 to 1 0.048 0.005

Deep aquifer percolation
RCHRG_DP.gw mm 0 to 1 0.05 0.12
fraction

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GW_DELAY.gw Groundwater delay time (days) days 0 to 500 31 1
Threshold depth of water in the

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GWQMN.gw shallow aquifer required for mm 0 to 5000 1000 750
return flow to occur
Urban area 30
Agriculture 60
CANMX.hru er
S (Maximum Range-grasses mm 0 to 100 0 25
t canopy storage)
r Forest mixed 90
e Water 70
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m ESCO.hru Soil evaporation compensation
- 0.01 to 1 0.95 0.7
f factor
l Slope length for lateral
o SLSOIL.hru subsurface flow
m 0 to 150 0 50
w
SURLAG.hru Surface runoff lag coefficient - 0 to 1 2 1
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Initial SCS runoff curve

CN.mgt - 0 to100 Varies 0.8a
number for moisture AMC‐II
Available water capacity of soil
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SOL.awc mm/mm 0 to 1 Varies 0.7a

layer
Water 0 0 (2)
Agriculture 0.2 0.2013 (1)
USLE_C.crop - 0 to 1
Range-grasses 0.003 1 (3)
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Forest mixed 0.001 0.0004 (1)

USLE_P.mgt USLE support practice factor - 0 to 1 1 0.8
S
e CH_COV1.rte -0.05 to
Channel erodibility factor - 0 0.1
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d 0.6
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CH_COV2.rte Channel cover factor - -0.001 to 1 0 0.1
m
e Sediment concentration in
n LAT_SED.hru lateral flow and groundwater mg/L 0 to 5000 0 3000
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t flow

161 aMultiplying factor to be applied to the parameter's original value. Values adapted by (1) Cavalieri
162 (1998). (2) Farinasso et al. (2006). (3) Bertoni and Lombardi Neto (2010). (4) Weill (2008).

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 163 2.1.3. Model performance evaluation

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164 The model performance in SWAT was analyzed to determine the quality fit of the

165 simulated and observed data, using the coefficient of determination (R2) (Krause et al.

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166 2005), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (Nash and Sutcliffe 1970), and percentage bias

167 (PBIAS) (Gupta et al. 1999). The value of NSE ranges from -∞ to 1.0 (considering 1.0

168 the optimal value) and allows us to evaluate a normalized difference between the model

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169 results and the observed results (Eq. 6).

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(
2
∑(𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠
)
𝑠𝑖𝑚
𝑡 ‒𝑇 𝑡 )
170 𝑁𝑆𝐸 = 1 ‒ 2 (6)
∑(𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑠
𝑡 ‒ 𝑇 𝑡 )

171 where 𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑠

er 𝑠𝑖𝑚
𝑡 is observed value, 𝑇 𝑡 is average observed value, 𝑇 𝑡 is computed value,

172 𝑇𝑠𝑖𝑚
𝑡 is average computed value.
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173 PBias estimates the mean difference between observed and measured values over a

174 known period (Eq. 7). The PBIAS values close to 0% indicate a smaller deviation of the
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175 model results from the measured values, but higher values are also acceptable when the

176 precision of the measured values is relatively low.

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( ∑𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑚
177 𝑃𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆 =
𝑡 ‒ ∑𝑇 𝑡

∑𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠
𝑡
).100 (7)
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178 The coefficient of determination, R2 (Eq. 8) describes the proportion of the variance of

179 the measured data that can be explained by the model. R2 ranges from 0 to 1, with higher
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180 values indicating a good fit of the estimate performed.

2
(∑[𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠
𝑡 ‒ 𝑇 𝑡 ][𝑇 𝑡 ‒ 𝑇 𝑡 ])
𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑚 𝑠𝑖𝑚

181 2 (8)
𝑅 =
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∑(𝑇𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑠 2 𝑠𝑖𝑚 2

𝑡 ‒ 𝑇 𝑡 ) ∙ ∑ (𝑇 𝑡 ‒ 𝑇 𝑡 )
𝑠𝑖𝑚

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 182 To identify the main variables that impact the sediment generation in the Mogi Guaçu

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183 River Basin a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed. A hierarchical

184 dendrogram was developed, with HRUs clustered by similarity of the predominant

185 geospatial features estimated by the Ward's method.

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186 2.2. Study area and data sources

187 The Mogi Guaçu River basin is in two Brazilian states (Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais) and

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188 is part of the Paraná River basin, an international basin shared with Paraguay, Argentina,

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189 and Uruguay. The Mogi Guaçu River is almost 500 km long and flows from southeast to

190 northeast, through more than 50 Brazilian cities, towards the Pardo River. Its watershed

191 covers an area of over 17,303 km2 in total, 15,000 km2 in Sao Paulo state. Due to the

192
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basin dimension and data availability, this research was limited to the part located in São

Paulo state, known by its acronym in the Brazilian system of water resources committees
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193

194 (UGRHI-9) (Fig. 1).

195 The Mogi Guaçu River Basin is one of the most important in the state of São Paulo for
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196 public water supply. Due to changes in weather patterns in the last ten years, the basin’s

197 water quality and quantity problems are increasing and raising serious concerns
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198 (Medeiros et al. 2008, Coelho et al. 2016, Galinaro et al. 2021).
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199 er
200 Figure 1. Mogi Guaçu River Basin with precipitation gauges (white circles), water quality gauge

201 (grey diamonds), and river flow gauges (green circles).

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202 The basin climate can be classified as humid subtropical (Cfa in the Köppen-Geiger

203 classification), with an average annual precipitation temperature of 21.6°C and 1480 mm.
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204 The temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data were obtained from a

205 gauge operated by the Center for Water Resources and Applied Ecology (CRHEA),
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206 located in the basin. The other meteorological and hydrological data were obtained from

207 the databases of two Brazilian agencies: the Department of Water and Energy of the State
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208 of São Paulo (DAEE) the and National Water Agency (ANA). A total of 30 rain gauges,

209 three river flow gauges (5C-025, 4C-007, and 4D-029), and two water quality gauges

210 (2900 and 2250) were selected based on their location and the continuity of the data record
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211 (Fig. 1).

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 212 Furthermore, the watershed altitude ranges from 469 m, in the West, to 1594 m, in the

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213 East, according to a 12.5m resolution DEM obtained from Advanced Land Observing

214 Satellite (ALOS) from 2011.

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215 The land use and land cover (LULC) in the Mogi Guaçu River Basin can be described

216 using a variety of approaches. First, LULC could be divided into agro-industrial activities

217 and agricultural crops (e.g., beans, potatoes, cotton, citrus, coffee, and sugarcane) (SigRH

2021). For flow modeling, a 30x30 meters Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite image from

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219 2010 was used to describe land use. Moreover, the Brazilian monitoring program of

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220 LULC, Map Biomass (online platform), was checked and indicated that the UGRHI-9

221 basin has been mainly covered by agriculture since 1985 (see Fig. SM1 in the
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222 Supplementary Material). In the SWAT validation stage, some of these areas were

223 classified mainly as mixed forest, considering the predominant characteristic of each
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224 Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) even if they are areas with shrub formation. The main

225 data from this analysis were collected from the Secretary of the Environment of the State

226 of São Paulo (SMA-SP 2021) and depicted the location in which the soils do not present
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227 vegetation cover (bare soil), and, therefore, are potentially more vulnerable to erosive
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228 processes (Fig. 2).

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229

230 Figure 2. Simplified Mogi Guaçu land use and occupation (LULC) in 2018 adapted from SMA-
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231 SP (online resource)
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232 The land use land cover map presented (Fig. 2) was used as input for SWAT. The map

233 identifies five classes of land use in the basin: agriculture (almost 60% of the area), range-

234 grasses (21.53%), forest-mixed (15.87%), and urban zone (2.74%), and water (0.76%).
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235 For each HRU identified by the SWAT model, predominant uses were assigned, which

236 resulted in 3 main uses: forest-mixed (in 75 HRUs in an area of 13246.02 km2, 89.32%),
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237 range grasses (in 16 HRUs, in an area of 1222.99 km2, 8.25%), and agriculture

238 (predominant in 8 HRUs, in an area of 360.04 km2, 2.43%).

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239 The soil map of the state of São Paulo (Rossi, 2017) was adopted. It indicates five

240 predominant soil orders in the water resources units (HRU) segmented by SWAT for the
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241 UGRHI-9 area: gleysols (in 12 HRU in an area of 258 km2, 1.7% in area), histosols (in 6

242 HRU, in 2.6% of the basin area, about 393 km2), neosols (in 3 HRU, totaling 424 km2,
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243 about 2.9% of the basin), argisols (in 11 HRU, totaling 2582 km2 or 17.4% of the total

244 area), and oxisols (in 67 HRU, about 75.3% or 11171 km2). When analyzing the

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 245 distribution (not evaluating predominance by HRU), it is also possible to identify ultisols,

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246 cambisols, and chernosols portions. Additional information on 14 soil parameters were

247 obtained from Freire et al (1978), Oliveira and Prado (1984), Lombardi Neto et al (1989),

248 and Saxton and Rawls (2006). Deeper soils have 0.5% to 1% organic carbon (OC) in the

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249 top layer (0-30 cm) and 0.2 % in the deepest layer. Most soils contain clay from 35 to

250 40% in the upper layers, usually increasing with depth.

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251 2.3. Soil Erosion data (IPT, 2012)

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252 The expansion of the agricultural area in the state of São Paulo occurred in the 1980s and

253 1990s, mainly at the expense of forests. The increase in land use associated with human

254
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activity was an important cause related to erosion processes (Prandini, 1974). The growth

255 of such erosive processes in the state of São Paulo motivated the Institute of
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256 Technological Research (IPT) and the Department of Water and Electricity (DAEE-SP)

257 to launch the Erosion project in the state of São Paulo. The first IPT project recorded

258 about 700 points of urban erosion and 7000 points of rural erosion, through the
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259 interpretation of aerial photos from 1972, as well as locations with urban linear erosion

260 (IPT, 2012). This first project was updated in 2010 and 2012, leading to a records total of
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261 about 1,400 points of urban erosion and 40,000 of rural erosion in the State of São Paulo

262 (IPT, 2012).

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263 The methodology developed by the IPT (2012) to evaluate the erosive processes, starts

264 with a visual interpretation of Google Earth images to identify the erosive processes.
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265 Characterization forms are prepared to register the natural environment and the main

266 aspects of the erosive process. Finally, visits are carried out to verify the occurrence of
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267 erosion processes and to correct the automatically interpreted data. In this way, the IPT

268 (2012) identified and recorded most linear erosive processes throughout the state of São

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 269 Paulo, with information on the type and origin of erosive processes, as well as their

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270 relationship with the main characteristics of the natural environment.

271 Erosion processes are associated with hydrological imbalances caused, such as

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272 deforestation and human interventions in areas of urban sprawl. Laminar erosion occurs

273 by diffuse surface runoff, after the impact of raindrops on the soil (Bertoni and Lombardi

274 Neto 1985). Linear erosion begins when the surface runoff velocity exceeds the

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275 mechanical resistance of the soil and causes incisions in the soil, which concentrates

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276 runoff and intensifies the development of larger linear erosive features.

277 The laminar erosion can be assessed by applying the Universal Soil Loss Equation

278
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(USLE), established by Wischmeier and Smith (1965) which uses soil erodibility, rain

279 erosivity, slope length and slope, coverage management, and support practice to calculate
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280 soil loss for different landforms and land uses. MUSLE, adopted the SWAT model, uses

281 runoff volume and peak flow to calculate sediment yield and can be used to assess soil

282 erosion for a water erosion event (Williams and Berndt 1977, Zhang, Degroote, Wolter,
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283 Sugumaran 2009, Alewell et al. 2019).

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284 The IPT (2012) states the criticality of erosion processes for São Paulo State based on the

285 erosion concentration index (ICE) and on the erosion susceptibility index (ISE). The ICE

286 is defined as the number of erosion events per unit of area (Eq. 9). An ICE value was
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287 determined for each HRU considered by SWAT and analyzed according to predominant

288 soil types, land use, and slope class of the HRU. The ICE value is classified in one of
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289 three classes according to its position vis-a-vis the mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ):

290 Low if ICE ≤ μ-σ, Intermediate if μ-σ < ICE ≤ μ+σ, and High if ICE>μ+σ < ICE.
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291 𝐼𝐶𝐸 = 𝑛/𝐴 (9)

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 292 The ISE (Eq. 10) represents the percentage of the watershed in a condition of high or very

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293 high susceptibility to erosion (IPT, 2012), evidencing the fragility of the natural

294 environment to the

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𝐴𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐼 𝐴𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐼𝐼
295 𝐼𝑆𝐸 = ( 𝐴 )+( 𝐴 ) (10)

296 where 𝐼𝑆𝐸 represents the erosion susceptibility index, A is the total area of the water

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297 resources management unit, in km2, 𝐴𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐼 is the area classified as class-I of

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298 susceptibility to erosion, in km2, representing the category “Very high”, and 𝐴𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐼𝐼 is

299 the area of the unit classified as class-II of susceptibility (high), in km2.

300
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Complementary, the ISE represents a percentage area, with a variation between 0 and

301 100%, so simple intervals were defined, eliminating the use of statistical analysis: ISE ≤
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302 20% (very low), 20% < ISE ≤ 40% (low), 40% < ISE ≤ 60% (intermediate), 60% < ISE

303 ≤ 80% (high) and 80% < ISE (very high).

304 The IPT identified 72 urban erosion processes in the Mogi Guaçu river basin, 61 of which
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305 were significant and 11 were superficial. The occurrences of urban linear erosion in São
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306 Paulo state are directly related to the precarious conditions of urban infrastructure, poorly

307 conceived projects, and inadequate land subdivision practices (IPT, 2012). Moreover,

308 3331 erosion processes were identified in the rural areas of the basin, which are explained
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309 by the characteristics of the natural environment and inadequate soil management

310 practices. These types of erosion and the soil loss rates are aggravated by land use changes
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311 and deforestation (Kertzman et al. 1995, Gallardo and Bond 2011, Cunha et al 2021,

312 Sousa et al. 2021).

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 313 3. Results and discussion

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314 3.1. Streamflow calibration and validation

315 The periods 1980–2000 and 2001–2018 were used to calibrate and validate the

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316 streamflow, respectively. The agreement between simulated and observed daily and

317 monthly streamflow, during the calibration and validation periods, is presented in Fig. 3

318 and 4. Simulated results are consistent with observed data, with simulated streamflow

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319 matching the low streamflow and most of the peaks.

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320 The model performance indicators also indicate a satisfactory performance in most cases

321 with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient higher than 0.6 when computed from daily values and

322
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higher than 0.7 when computed from monthly values in (Table 2). The model results are

323 slightly worse for the upstream sub-basin.

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324
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325 Figure 3. Daily model calibration and validation for Mogi-Guaçu River basin.

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326

327 Figure 4. Monthly model calibration and validation for Mogi-Guaçu River basin.
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328

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 329 Table 2. Statistic evaluation of simulated versus observed average daily and monthly

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330 streamflow data.

Gauges Daily Monthly

Calibration Validation Calibration Validation

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NSE Pbias R2 NSE Pbias R2 NSE Pbias R2 NSE Pbias R2
5C-025 0.65 7.75 0.67 0.68 9.21 0.69 0.78 0.57 0.78 0.77 2.49 0.76
4C-007 0.70 11.35 0.71 0.64 16.34 0.70 0.75 6.91 0.76 0.71 10.92 0.75
4D-029 0.54 33.10 0.65 0.50 26.98 0.66 0.52 24.66 0.76 0.84 8.33 0.67

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331 3.2. Sediment Yield Prediction

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332 Data from 2009 to 2018 were used to calibrate and validate sediment production. The

333 observed sediment production values (Fig. 5) can be compared with the simulated model

334
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results. As concluded by Santos et al. (2020), SWAT can replicate the scale and variation

335 pattern of sediment production, although not with great precision.

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336
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337 Figure 5. Performance of SWAT model for sediment yield gauges.

338 Table 3 presents the computed performance indicators for sediment yield. The low
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339 monitoring frequency of sediment transport (bimonthly), and the fact that most data has

340 been collected during low flows, hinders the analysis. Nevertheless, the values of NSE
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341 and R2 were above 0.3 and 0.5, respectively, showing a satisfactory adjustment to the

342 observed data.

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343 Table 3. Statistic evaluation of simulated versus observed sediment yield.

Sediment yield
Gauge
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NSE Pbias R2
2900 0.56 -3.71 0.68
2250 0.38 31.35 0.51

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 344 3.3. Soil Erosion Analysis

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345 3.3.1 Observed Data (IPT, 2012) and physiographic data

346 The spatialization of LULC information, soil types, erosion records by area, and related

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347 susceptibility to erosion events allowed us to conduct a complimentary analysis, using

348 map algebra and applied statistics.

349 The areas associated with high ICE values are mostly areas with greater slopes (Figure

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350 6b) which is considered a fundamental factor for triggering erosion studied by several

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351 authors who studied the State of São Paulo, Brazil. (Giordano and Riedel 2008, Dorici et

352 al. 2016, Costa et al. 2018, Junior et al. 2019). This characteristic, associated with soil

353 types, land use and often inadequate soil management practices, makes these areas much
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354 more vulnerable to sediment breakdown and, consequently, to the formation of erosive

355 processes.
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356
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357 Figure 6 - The slope and erosive events records of the Mogi Guaçu River Basin (a) and the main

358 types of soils in the basin.

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359 Following the Brazilian classification presented by the IPT (2012), there are 10 HRUs in

360 the upper class (higher ICE values) (Fig 7.). Among these, only one is an urban area with

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 361 a predominance of gleysols, while the other 9 have a forest mixed LULC, with 5 argisols

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362 and 4 oxisols. Finally, 100% of the areas with high ICE registration present a greater

363 slope.

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364 The 80 HRUs classified as intermediate ICE present more variable characteristics. 62

365 HRU have mixed-forest as LULC, 12 are predominantly range-grasses covered, and 6 are

366 mainly arable. Most of these areas have latosols (56 HRU), in addition, they also have a

predominance of gleysols (8 HRUs), argisols (6 HRUs), organosols (6 HRUs), and

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367

368 neosols (3 HRUs). Additionally, 64 HRUs of intermediate ICE have a smooth slope,

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369 while 14 of them are intermediate slopes (13 have forest-mixed as LULC). Finally, the 9

370 HRU with low ICE low do not no records of laminar erosive processes. These are flatter
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371 areas, with a smooth slope. Among the 9 HRU, 6 have latosols and 3 gleysols.

372 Fig. 7 shows the ICE and ISE values for each HRU. The highest ICE values are
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373 concentrated in peripheral areas of the basin, far from the main river of the UGRHI-9,

374 while the areas of high ISE values are concentrated in the middle of the basin. The

375 comparison of the ICE map (Fig. 7a) with the ISE map (Fig. 7b) shows that the percentage
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376 of the basin with ICE values is lower than the percentage of the basin with ISE values.
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377 These areas at the most upstream points of the basin, which are most vulnerable to erosive

378 events, have steeper slopes and correspond to peri-urban areas, with a high degree of land

379 occupation
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380 er
381 Figure 7- ICE (a) and ISE classification (b) adapted to the HRUs derived from SWAT modeling

382 for the Mogi Guaçu River Basin.

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383

384 3.3.2. Soil Erosion Results and Identification of the Critical HRUs
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385 The SWAT model adequately identifies the areas where erosive processes were found in
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386 the field. SWAT model indicates the maximum average annual soil loss in the study area

387 is 1200 kg/km2/year, occurring mainly in the southwestern region (Figure 8), where the
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388 surface runoff is high (Fig. SM11; Supplementary Material) and the soil loss is persistent

389 over the years. These areas correspond to areas with high ISE values, which are, therefore,

390 are highly vulnerable to erosive processes. These results corroborate previous studies on
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391 SWAT ability to predict erosion process and soil loss, such as Beskow et al. (2009).
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392
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393 Figure 8 – Soil loss distribution obtained by SWAT model considering the estimation for 1985,

394 2000, 2012, and 2018.

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395 In addition to slope, flow accumulation also directly impacts the formation and

396 progression of erosive processes (Zhang; Wang, 2017 and Qin et al., 2018). Fig. 4SM and

397 5SM in the Supplementary Material, respectively, show flow direction and the sum of all
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398 pixels accumulated upstream.

399 We run a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the HRUs dataset, considering SWAT
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400 estimates of soil loss (USLE), surface runoff (SURQ), total suspended solids (TSS), and

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 401 sediment transported with water out of reach (SedOut), as well as data obtained by IPT

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402 (2012), such as the number of events per HRU (N) and the calculated concentration of

403 number of erosive events per area (ICE). The goal was to show us how the IPT data are

404 correlated with the SWAT results.

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405
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406 Figure 9 – PCA considering the observation events in the 99 HRU generated by the SWAT

407 Model.
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408 The first component (PC1) accounts for more variance than 35%, while the second

409 component (PC2) represents 20%, as shown in Table 2SM (Supplementary Material) and
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410 Fig. 9. The highest loadings in PC1 are slope, number of events by area in the rural region

411 (ICE), TSS, and USLE; marked on the PCA chart by the purple hatch. In addition, the
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412 size of the area and the number of events that occur are the two loadings of PC2 (yellow

413 hatch). The scree plot that presents the integrity of the analysis and the correlation of

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 414 dimensionality with the referred factors generated can be observed in the elements of the

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415 Supplementary Material (Table 2SM, Fig.7SM, and Fig. 8SM, respectively).

416 The statistically significant variables that present the highest positive correlation with the

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417 number of events recorded by the IPT in 2012 were area, slope and soil loss (USLE) (see

418 the Table 1SM in the Supplementary Material). The number of events per area (ICE)

419 presents a high positive correlation with slope, but also with solids production and the

soil loss values, both estimated by the SWAT model.

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420

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421 Furthermore, an agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) was developed using the PCA

422 for the observations (see Fig. 6SM and Table 3SM). For this purpose, the Ward method

423 and Euclidian distance for dissimilarity were applied. The clustering corroborates that the

424
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soil type is also a predominant factor in the identification of similarities between the

HRUs, forming sets of erosive similarities. The AHC dendrogram allowed us to separate
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425

426 the observations into two clusters, the first one (C1) was the largest, consisting of 86 HRU

427 and the second (C2) consisting of only 13 sub-basins. The first cluster, C1, groups HRUs
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428 with flatter relief and a predominance of oxisol (64 of the 86 HRU have this type of soil).

429 The first cluster also has 75 HRU classified within the intermediate class for ICE (number
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430 of events per area). ISE indicates more variable susceptibility conditions, with 36 HRU

431 classified in the low class and 29 HRUs in the very high class. The smallest cluster (C2)
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432 groups HRUs with gleisoil as the predominant soil type (70% of the HRUs have this type

433 of soils). Moreover, 9 of the 13 HRUs have forest as predominant landcover, the

434 predominant soil textural class is intermediate, and the slope is steeper. The second cluster
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435 includes 7 HRU within the low ICE class and 6 others in the medium class. Most HRUs

436 have a high ISE.

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437 In addition, a survey of erosive events in rural areas of the Mogi Guaçu River Basin was

438 carried out using a non-parametric regression model relating the number events recorded

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 439 per unit of area (ICE) with slope (Fig. 10). The slope detail can be inferred from the

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440 contour plot and in the digital elevation model extracted from the SRTM image (Fig. 9SM

441 and 10SM, respectively). In order to obtain this model, a Kernel regression was

442 developed, with three phases: first, a fitting step was performed to determine the best

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443 model and associated function using a sampling of the observed data (from IPT, 2012);

444 in the second stage, a sample different from the first was used to validate whether we can

445 predict the observations with reasonable reliability; finally, to apply the generalized linear

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446 model derived from kernel regression, a synthetic sample of slope values was generated

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447 (red triangle) to interpret the prediction of ICEs. Finally, the linear regression fit (R2 >

448 0.9) allows us to state that the linear model is able to describe well the occurrence of

449
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events in the Mogi Guaçu River Basin. Such analyzes are in great agreement with the data

450 presented in the runoff map (Fig 11SM), but mainly in the distribution of sediments
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451 produced (Fig. 12SM).
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452
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453 Figure 10 - Estimation of erosive events in rural areas of the Mogi Guaçu River Basin and its

454 regression model related to events recorded per unit of area (rural ICE) and slope. The blue

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 455 circles represent the observations recorded by the IPT in 2012 and the red triangles represent a

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456 non-parametric estimate of the erosive events used to test the prediction.

457 Thus, the SWAT model supports better management of erosion processes and can be well

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458 used in consonance with other methods of recording, analyzing, and controlling erosion.

459 Simple statistical models for factorial dimensionality reduction (PCA) and generalized

460 linear models can be additional tools aligned to SWAT models in guiding an adequate

analysis of the main erosive processes of a site.

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461

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462 4. Conclusions

463 The methodology applied to the study of spatially distributed erosion (SWAT model) in
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464 the Mogi Guaçu River basin, showed acceptable precision and allowed for identification

465 of the most susceptible areas to water erosion.

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466 The prioritization of the areas that most need interventions would correspond precisely to

467 the points of greater vulnerability and greater criticality of events, as this would indicate
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468 that the same place is susceptible to different levels of erosive processes. However, due

469 to the conflicting interactions existing between the two analyzed methods, the
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470 identification and prioritization of critical zones can be, in practice, quite challenging.

471 Thus, this study developed procedures to complement map algebra, in particular, jointly
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472 analyzing data from ICEs, sediment production and transport. An analysis of the main

473 components and the analysis of the correlation between the factors made it possible to
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474 verify which criteria present, for the study area, statistically significant, so that it is not

475 just a visual analysis directed to multi-criteria decision making. Thus, there is a range of

476 processes that occur in parallel, however, in fact, the most relevant factors indicated by
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 477 the analyzes continue to be the influence of relief forms, soil type and conditions of use

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478 and coverage.

479 Statistical analysis of natural and manmade attributes, summarized in ICE, with SWAT

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480 produced results, demonstrates the correlation between factors made it possible the

481 statistically significance of considered criteria.

482 Acknowledgments

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483 This study was financed by Project UIDP/50019/2020 - Multiannual Financing of R&D

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484 Units 2020 - 2023 - IDL, funded by the Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P.

485 (FCT, I.P.) and the Dom Luiz Institute (IDL), Portugal.

486 6. References
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487 Affessa, G.M., Belew, A.Z., Tenagashaw, D.Y., Tamirat, D. M. (2022) Land Use/Cover Change

488 Impacts on Hydrology Using SWAT Model on Borkena Watershed, Ethiopia. Water Conserv

489 Sci Eng 7, 55–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-022-00128-1.

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490 Beskow, S., Mello, C. R., Norton, L. D., Curi, N., Viola, M. R., & Avanzi, J. C. (2009). Soil

491 erosion prediction in the Grande River Basin, Brazil using distributed modeling. Catena, 79(1),
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492 49-59.

493 Bezak N., Mikos M., Borrelli P., Alewell C., Alvarez P., Anache J.A.A., Baartman J., Ballabio
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494 C., Biddoccu M., Cerdà A., Chalise D, Chen S., Chen W., De Girolamo A. M., Gessesse G.D.,

495 Deumlich D., Diodato N., Efthimiou N., Erpul G., Fiener P., Freppaz M., Gentile F., Gericke

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500 Samani A.N., Schillaci C., Syrris V., Kim H.S., Spinola D.N., Oliveira P.T., Teng H., Thapa R.,

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556 soil erosion by water: A guide to conservation planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss

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