Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Forecast Accuracy
Basic Forecasting Methods
Stochastic Processes
Autoregressive Processes
Moving Average Processes
ARMA Processes
ARIMA Processes
Markov Chains
Appendices
Cubic formula
Roots of a polynomial
Bairstow's method
Complex numbers
Complex matrices
Statistical tables
Real Statistics Using Excel - Time Series Examples Workbook
Charles Zaiontz, 27 July 2018
Table of Contents
Forecast Accuracy
Error Statistics
Diebold-Mariano Test
Pesaran-Timmermann Test
Stochastic Processes
Stationary Process
Autocorrelation Function
Correlogram
Random Walk
Deterministic Trend
Dickey-Fuller Test
Autoregressive Processes
Basic Concepts
Partial Autocorrelation
Basic Concepts
Invertibility
ARMA(1,1) Processes
Forecasting
ARIMA Processes
Differencing
Comparing models
Forecasting
Markov Chains
Appendix
Bairstow's Method
Complex Numbers
Complex Matrices
Table of Contents
Forecast Accuracy
Error Statistics
Error statistics
Diebold-Mariano Test
Diebold-Mariano Test and Comparison of Forecasts
HLN Test
Pesaran-Timmermann Test
Pesaran-Timmermann Test
Stochastic Processes
Stationary Process
Dow Jones Time Series (Example 1)
Lag 1 Differencing
Autocorrelation Function
Autocorrelation Function (Example 1)
ACF and Correlogram (Example 2)
Bartlett's Test (Example 3)
Box-Pierce Test (Example 4)
Ljung-Box Test (Example 4)
Correlogram
Correlogram ACF
Correlogram PACF
Random Walk
Random Walk Simulation (Example 1)
First differences of RW
Deterministic Trend
Simulation (Example 1)
Detrending
Dickey-Fuller Test
Example 1 (no constant, no trend)
Example 1 (constant, no trend)
Example 1 (constant, trend)
Autoregressive Processes
Basic Concepts
Simulated AR(1) Process (Example 1)
ACF for AR(1) Process
Partial Autocorrelation
PACF for AR(1) Process (Example 1)
ACF and PACF for AR(2) Process (Example 2)
Basic Concepts
Simulated MA(1) Process (Example 1)
ACF for MA(1) Process
PACF for MA(1) Process (Example 2)
Invertibility
Roots of the characteristic equation for MA(3) process (Example 1)
ARMA(1,1) Processes
Psi coefficients for ARMA(1,1) process (Example 1)
Simulate ARMA(1,1) process without constant (Example 2)
Simulate ARMA(1,1) process with constant (Example 3)
Forecasting
ARMA(1,1) process without constant
ARMA(1,1) process with constant
ARIMA Processes
Differencing
Differencing (Example 1)
Comparing models
AIC and BIC (Example 1)
Forecasting
Forecasting using an ARIMA(2,1,1) model without constant (Example 1)
Markov Chains
Example 1
Example 2
Appendix
Roots of a Polynomial
Using ROOTS function (Example 1)
Using ROOTS function (Example 2)
Bairstow's Method
First two roots
Find next roots
Complex Numbers
Excel Capabilities
Real Statistics Capabilities
Polar format and nth roots
Complex Matrices
Real Statistics Capabilities
n 20
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Diebold-Mariano Test
n 20 d-mean 0.263288
d-var 0.552946
Real Statistics Analysis
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-1
-2
-3
PT #NAME?
p-value #NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
=1-NORM.S.DIST(E11,TRUE)
#NAME?
Simple Moving Average
MAE MSE
12.05556 226.3889
12.05556 226.3889
226.3889
Excel data analysis tool
t y pred s.e.
1 3 #N/A #N/A
ing Average 2 5 #N/A #N/A
Moving Aver
3 9 5.666667 #N/A
4 20 11.33333 #N/A 100
5 12 13.66667 5.446712 80
60
Value
6 17 16.33333 5.109903 40
7 22 17 3.06715 20
8 23 20.66667 3.208784 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111
9 51 32 11.42285
Data Point
10 41 38.33333 11.15879
11 56 49.33333 11.72683
12 75 57.33333 11.0101
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 60 63.66667 11.10555
14 75 70 10.8098
pred
15 88 74.33333 8.66453
Moving Average
Actual
Forecast
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415
Data Point
Moving Average (Excel data analysis tool)
t y
1 3 #N/A #N/A
2 5 #N/A #N/A
3
4
9
20
5.666667
11.33333
#N/A
#N/A
Moving Average
5 12 13.66667 5.446712 100
80
6 17 16.33333 5.109903 60 Actual
Value
7 22 17 3.06715 40 Forecast
8 23 20.66667 3.208784 20
9 51 32 11.42285 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415
10 41 38.33333 11.15879
Data Point
11 56 49.33333 11.72683
12 75 57.33333 11.0101
13 60 63.66667 11.10555
14 75 70 10.8098
15 88 74.33333 8.66453
erage
Actual
Forecast
1112131415
Simple Moving Average (Real Statistics)
value
10 41 8 23 17 40
30
11 56 9 51 20.66667
20
12 75 10 41 32 10
13 60 11 56 38.33333 0
14 75 12 75 49.33333 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 >
15 88 13 60 57.33333 time
14 75 63.66667
15 88 70
> 74.33333
MAE MSE
12.05556 226.3889
ecast
actual
forecast
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 >
Weighted Moving Average
MAE MSE
10.9083 191.3658
10.9083 191.3658
191.3658
ghted Moving Average
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
y pred
Weighted Moving Average
MAE MSE
11.2256 184.6878
eighted Moving Average
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
y pred
Single Exponential Smoothing
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
pred
Exponential Smoothing (Excel data analysis tool)
t y
1 3 #N/A #N/A
2 5 3 #N/A
3 9 3.8 #N/A Exponential Smoothing
4 20 5.88 #N/A
100
5 12 11.528 8.763835 80
6 17 11.7168 8.691705 60 Actual
Value
7 22 13.83008 8.708413 40 Forecast
20
8 23 17.09805 5.623836
0
9 51 19.45883 6.569953 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415
10 41 32.0753 19.11741 Data Point
11 56 35.64518 19.22957
12 75 43.78711 22.27715
13 60 56.27226 22.12249
14 75 57.76336 21.62144
15 88 64.65802 20.69817
alpha 0.4
Value
Forecast 15.88574 7.861923 40 Forecast
20.16572 4.814882 20
0
22.14972 4.442694 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415
42.34491 17.10513
Data Point
41.40347 16.75491
51.62104 18.68338
67.98631 15.93155
62.39589 16.56719
71.21877 16.01271
alpha 0.3
(default)
ng
Actual
Forecast
Exponential Smoothing (Real Statistics data analysis tool)
t y Exponential Smoothing
1 3
2 5 alpha 0.4
3 9
4 20 t y forecast Forecast
5 12 1 3 3
100
6 17 2 5 3 90
7 22 3 9 3.8 80
8 23 4 20 5.88 70
60
9 51 5 12 11.528
50
value
10 41 6 17 11.7168 40
11 56 7 22 13.83008 30
12 75 8 23 17.09805 20
13 60 9 51 19.45883 10
0
14 75 10 41 32.0753 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
15 88 11 56 35.64518
time
12 75 43.78711
13 60 56.27226
14 75 57.76336
15 88 64.65802
> 73.99481
MAE MSE
12.67764 262.7882
Exponential Smoothing
alpha 0.4
value
forecast 17 11.7168
40
22 13.83008 30
23 17.09805 20
51 19.45883 10
41 32.0753 0
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
56 35.64518
time time
75 43.78711
60 56.27226
75 57.76336
88 64.65802
> 73.99481
MAE MSE
12.67764 262.7882
Forecast
actual
forecast
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
time
Single Exponential Smoothing Single Exponential Smoothing (MAE)
39.51232 60
50
9.992257
40
846.0392
30
1.666E-08
20
224.9987
10
583.5561 0
44.82282 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
161.2468 y pred
301.5643
RMSE
13.15885
Single Exponential Smoothing
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
y yhat
Holt's Linear Trend
8 23 24.64932 80
9 51 26.66414
60
10 41 45.88707
11 56 52.05245 40
12 75 62.85699 20
13 60 80.33976
0
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 75 79.13429 1 2 3 4 5
y pred 15 88 83.2534
16 92.25392
17 99.3558
18 106.4577
19 113.5596
20 120.6614
Holt's Method
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
y pred
Holt's Method (minimize MAE)
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 60 74.56716 0
1 2 3 4 5
14 75 79.43384
y pred
15 88 86.33403
16 95.16312
17 103.5394
18 111.9156
19 120.2919
20 128.6681
Forecast using Holt's Linear Trend
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
y pred
Holt's Method Holt's Method
t y t y u v forecast
1 3 1 3 3 0
2 5 2 5 3.8 0.56 3
3 9 3 9 6.216 1.8592 4.36
140
4 20 4 20 12.84512 5.198144 8.0752
120
5 12 5 12 15.62596 3.50603 18.04326
6 17 6 17 18.27919 2.909073 19.13199 100
7 22 7 22 21.51296 3.136359 21.18827 80
value
8 23 8 23 23.98959 2.67455 24.64932 60
9 51 9 51 36.39848 9.48859 26.66414 40
10 41 10 41 43.93224 8.120209 45.88707 20
11 56 11 56 53.63147 9.225522 52.05245
0
12 75 12 75 67.7142 12.62556 62.85699 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
13 60 13 60 72.20386 6.930431 80.33976
14 75 14 75 77.48057 5.77283 79.13429
15 88 15 88 85.15204 7.101878 83.2534
> 92.25392
> 99.3558
> 106.4577
> 113.5596
> 120.6614
60 forecast
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 > > > > >
time
Holt's Method (minimize MSE)
0 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13
1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
y pred
Holt-Winters
2 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14
4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
d
Holt-Winters
30 forecast
20
10
0
> > >
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13
time
Stationary Time Series
Date Dow
Oct-01 16272.01
Oct-02 16472.37
Oct-05 16776.43
Dow Jones - October 2015
Oct-06 16790.19
18000
Oct-07 16912.29
17800
Oct-08 17050.75
17600
Oct-09 17084.49
Oct-12 17131.86 17400
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Autocorrelation Function (ACF)
t y
1 23.4 s2 #NAME? =COVARIANCE.S(B4:B21,B6:B23)
2 24.1 r2 0.338691 #NAME?
3 44.4
4 25.5 mean 49.9 #NAME?
5 19.2 s0 564.3673 =VAR.P(B4:B23)
6 37.1 devsq 11287.35 #NAME?
7 45.0 n 20 #NAME?
8 61.8 s2 151.9401 #NAME?
9 56.7 r2 0.269222 #NAME?
10 62.3 =SUMPRODUCT(B4:B21-E7,B6:B23-E7)/E9
11 30.9
12 69.6
13 11.0
14 56.6
15 83.4
16 33.9
17 75.5
18 87.3
19 55.4
20 95.2
Autocorrelation Function (ACF)
ACF
Oct 9, 2015 17084.49 6 #NAME?
Oct 12, 2015 17131.86 7 #NAME? 4
Oct 13, 2015 17081.89 8 #NAME?
2
Oct 14, 2015 16924.75 9 #NAME?
Oct 15, 2015 17141.75 10 #NAME? 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Oct 16, 2015 17215.97
Lag
Oct 19, 2015 17230.54
Oct 20, 2015 17217.11
Oct 21, 2015 17168.61
Oct 22, 2015 17489.16
Oct 23, 2015 17646.70
Oct 26, 2015 17623.05
Oct 27, 2015 17581.43
Oct 28, 2015 17779.52
Oct 29, 2015 17755.80
Oct 30, 2015 17663.54
Bartlett
n 22 #NAME?
relogram s.e. 0.213201 #NAME?
alpha 0.05
crit 0.417866 =NORM.INV(1-P5/2,0,P4)
k 5
ACF #NAME? #NAME?
p-value #NAME? =1-NORM.DIST(P8,0,P4,TRUE)
sig #NAME? #NAME?
n 22 #NAME? n 22
df 5 df 5
alpha 0.05 alpha 0.05
crit 12.832502 =CHISQ.INV.RT(U5/2,U4) crit 12.832502
Q #NAME? #NAME? LB #NUM!
p-value #NAME? =CHISQ.DIST.RT(U7,U4) p-value #NUM!
sig #NAME? #NAME? sig #NUM!
=CHISQ.INV.RT(Z5/2,Z4)
#NAME?
=CHISQ.DIST.RT(Z7,Z4)
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF)
Bartlett
PACF Correlogram
12 n
s.e.
10
alpha
8 crit
k
PACF
6
PACF
4 p-value
sig
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Lag
2 3
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
22 #NAME?
0.213200716 #NAME?
0.05
0.417865726 =NORM.INV(1-P5/2,0,P4)
2
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? =1-NORM.DIST(K34,0,K30,TRUE)
#NAME? #NAME?
4
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
ACF
9 0.108345 8 #NAME? #NAME? 3.9
10 0.975447 9 #NAME? #NAME?
1.9
11 -0.045408 10 #NAME? #NAME?
12 -1.665696 11 #NAME? #NAME? -0.1
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
13 -0.699614 12 #NAME? #NAME?
14 0.737761 13 #NAME? #NAME? Lag
15 1.367736 14 #NAME? #NAME?
16 -0.084435 15 #NAME? #NAME?
17 0.851066 16 #NAME? #NAME?
18 -1.756233 17 #NAME? #NAME? White Noise
19 0.055645 18 #NAME? #NAME? 3
20 -1.499975 19 #NAME? #NAME?
21 1.312147 20 #NAME? #NAME? 2
22 -0.929352 21 #NAME? #NAME?
23 -0.744178 22 #NAME? #NAME? 1
24 -0.809841 23 #NAME? #NAME?
25 -0.779452 24 #NAME? #NAME? 0
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 1091211331451571691811932
26 -0.897002 25 #NAME? #NAME?
-1
27 -0.923775 26 #NAME? #NAME?
28 0.393816 27 #NAME? #NAME?
-2
29 0.260448 28 #NAME? #NAME?
30 -0.730464 29 #NAME? #NAME? -3
31 -1.322394 30 #NAME? #NAME?
32 -0.375139 31 #NAME? #NAME?
33 -0.17791 32 #NAME? #NAME?
34 0.187609 33 #NAME? #NAME?
35 0.649424 34 #NAME? #NAME?
36 -0.837827 35 #NAME? #NAME?
37 -0.256453 36 #NAME? #NAME?
38 0.800767 37 #NAME? #NAME?
39 0.171321 38 #NAME? #NAME?
40 1.330447 39 #NAME? #NAME?
41 -0.647744 40 #NAME? #NAME?
42 0.231122
43 -1.190859
44 -0.586978
45 0.146458
46 0.511185 var 1.009226
47 0.412832
48 -1.151893
49 -1.7145
50 -0.676343
51 -1.70517
52 0.927207
53 0.798677
54 -1.918679
55 -0.212467
56 0.223478
57 -0.694178
58 -0.525088
59 -0.213903
60 -0.770113
61 0.628863
62 0.719112
63 -1.225395
64 -1.627668
65 -1.724909
66 0.156872
67 -0.551446
68 -0.336391
69 0.675958
70 -0.347462
71 -0.95468
72 1.134599
73 -1.902408
74 -1.577572
75 0.736304
76 -0.002512
77 1.216026
78 0.953627
79 -0.849945
80 -1.146495
81 -1.267865
82 0.193091
83 -0.466163
84 -0.551362
85 -0.432425
86 -0.95611
87 -0.362
88 -0.895452
89 -1.0839
90 -0.905925
91 1.971598
92 -0.936744
93 0.722898
94 0.100591
95 -0.688225
96 0.311398
97 -0.728714
98 0.329144
99 -1.092803
100 -0.361442
101 0.395023
102 0.554902
103 -1.060959
104 0.572969
105 1.694769
106 -0.750841
107 -0.182007
108 -1.360852
109 0.874421
110 -0.939773
111 0.730793
112 0.397914
113 1.068624
114 -1.60254
115 -0.828497
116 2.576232
117 0.715369
118 0.225171
119 -0.991917
120 0.683722
121 -1.159454
122 -2.278905
123 0.884388
124 1.917588
125 0.395518
126 -1.726556
127 0.442817
128 1.438893
129 0.122753
130 -2.304329
131 -1.228056
132 0.526641
133 -0.239363
134 -0.406232
135 2.152642
136 0.815372
137 0.311689
138 -1.125795
139 0.88241
140 -0.68361
141 1.059206
142 -0.91302
143 1.422642
144 0.962062
145 0.638752
146 0.742408
147 0.553328
148 1.297541
149 -1.112566
150 0.616129
151 1.005567
152 -0.495572
153 0.479541
154 -0.105562
155 0.275599
156 0.597752
157 -0.091167
158 -0.668672
159 0.146348
160 1.38406
161 -0.223035
162 -0.465433
163 0.190762
164 0.686254
165 1.105264
166 1.407423
167 0.901017
168 -0.018149
169 -1.290934
170 -1.140878
171 -0.144018
172 -0.83035
173 0.754772
174 -0.469048
175 0.964839
176 -0.076919
177 0.4204
178 -1.272197
179 -2.278662
180 -0.491051
181 0.481465
182 -1.644886
183 0.066633
184 0.746036
185 0.278613
186 1.126698
187 -0.420356
188 -1.727617
189 1.331357
190 -2.688282
191 -1.029773
192 1.355601
193 1.680735
194 1.852013
195 -0.075661
196 -0.184074
197 -0.044711
198 1.504056
199 -1.328552
200 -0.333721
201 -0.384708
202 -0.559995
203 -0.027644
204 -0.797996
205 -1.581448
206 -0.578196
207 0.076483
208 -0.120556
209 -0.781518
210 -0.649755
211 0.118193
212 1.269374
213 -0.296299
214 -0.383867
215 0.713966
216 1.395058
217 -0.409947
218 0.407764
219 -0.961711
220 0.174029
221 -0.410625
222 -1.729472
223 0.607092
224 -0.519429
225 -1.378283
226 -0.99234
227 0.463184
228 -0.61527
229 -1.4534
230 -1.158088
231 -1.438804
232 0.942358
233 1.565313
234 0.065644
235 -0.534736
236 0.20199
237 1.352822
238 1.400541
239 1.598134
240 0.058524
241 -0.499618
242 1.418501
243 1.274373
244 -0.11736
245 -0.149915
246 0.122169
247 0.628746
248 -1.442437
249 1.387084
250 1.122206
251 1.35096
252 0.82726
253 -0.233034
254 -1.609202
255 1.484942
256 1.004218
257 0.443256
258 1.454199
259 0.277
260 -0.443294
261 -0.393473
262 -0.191174
263 -0.353456
264 1.061165
265 0.651769
266 -0.876188
267 1.021114
268 0.334557
269 -0.316082
270 -0.2581
271 -1.065981
272 1.325333
273 0.224203
274 1.142799
275 -2.024869
276 1.170052
277 -0.287802
278 0.19996
279 -0.426325
280 -0.949976
281 0.237984
282 -1.709794
283 -0.232062
284 -0.04316
285 0.917416
286 0.949657
287 -0.287088
288 -1.448776
289 1.615344
290 -0.259843
291 1.852915
292 0.620569
293 -1.122482
294 0.653658
295 0.63947
296 1.268701
297 1.913882
298 1.981776
299 -0.30623
300 2.012245
ACF for White Noise PACF for White Noise
12
10
PACF
4
0
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Lag Lag
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Ljung-Box Test
300
40
0.05
59.34171
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
Random Walk
B1 =NORM.INV(RAND(),0,.5)
C1 #NAME?
C2 #NAME?
m Walk Correlogram
yi-1 + εi 12
10
ACF 4
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Lag
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
7
Random Walk
B1 #NAME?
C1 #NAME?
C2 #NAME?
First Differences
ACF
12
10
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
5 6 7
Deterministic Trend
14 1.338981 15.33898
15 -1.08817 13.91183
16 1.141485 17.14148
17 -0.81466 16.18534
18 2.157634 20.15763
19 -0.30655 18.69345
20 -0.11065 19.88935
B1 =NORM.INV(RAND(),0,1)
C1 #NAME?
C2 #NAME?
stic Trend Correlogram
+ εi 12
10
ACF
4
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Lag
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
7
Deterministic Trend
14 15.33898 1.338981
15 13.91183 -1.088166
16 17.14148 1.141485
17 16.18534 -0.814663
18 20.15763 2.157634
19 18.69345 -0.306552
20 19.88935 -0.110648
B1 #NAME?
C1 #NAME?
C2 #NAME?
ending ACF
12
10
4
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6 7
Time Series Testing data analysis tool
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
Time Series Testing data analysis tool with differencing
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
Dickey-Fuller Test
-$100
-$200
-$300
DF Test Diff Data: 0
n 25 time data
224.3008 alpha 0.05 1 #NAME?
224.8723 tau #NAME? 2 #NAME?
225.4789 tau-crit #NAME? 3 #NAME?
stationary #NAME? 4 #NAME?
5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
Alpha 0.05 7 #NAME?
F p-value sig 8 #NAME?
0 1 no 9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?
12 #NAME?
p-value lower upper 13 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14 #NAME?
15 #NAME?
16 #NAME?
17 #NAME?
nings/Losses
18 #NAME?
19 #NAME?
20 #NAME?
21 #NAME?
22 #NAME?
23 #NAME?
24 #NAME?
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 #NAME?
ADF Test
criteria none
drift no
trend no
lag 0
alpha 0.05
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
Dickey-Fuller Test
mean - 13.61
DF Test Diff Data: 0
n 25 time data
#NAME? alpha 0.05 1 #NAME?
#NAME? tau #NAME? 2 #NAME?
#NAME? tau-crit #NAME? 3 #NAME?
stationary #NAME? 4 #NAME?
5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
Alpha 0.05 7 #NAME?
F p-value sig 8 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?
12 #NAME?
p-value lower upper 13 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 15 #NAME?
16 #NAME?
17 #NAME?
18 #NAME?
19 #NAME?
20 #NAME?
21 #NAME?
22 #NAME?
23 #NAME?
24 #NAME?
25 #NAME?
ADF Test
criteria none
drift no
trend no
lag 0
alpha 0.05
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
Dickey-Fuller Test
mean - 13.61
DF Test Diff Data: 0
n 25 time data
#NAME? alpha 0.05 1 #NAME?
#NAME? tau #NAME? 2 #NAME?
#NAME? tau-crit #NAME? 3 #NAME?
stationary #NAME? 4 #NAME?
p-value #NAME? 5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
Alpha 0.05 7 #NAME?
F p-value sig 8 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?
12 #NAME?
p-value lower upper vif 13 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 15 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 16 #NAME?
17 #NAME?
18 #NAME?
19 #NAME?
20 #NAME?
21 #NAME?
22 #NAME?
23 #NAME?
24 #NAME?
25 #NAME?
ADF Test
criteria none
drift no
trend no
lag 0
alpha 0.05
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
tau-crit #NAME?
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF)
2.1954112
1.5564893 #NAME?
1.616608 Time Series #NAME?
1.4354933 #NAME?
4.0
1.472317 #NAME?
1.32457 3.5 #NAME?
2.6101003
1.8739673 3.0 max lags
3.0006759
2.1606254 2.5
2.1565014
2.0
2.9629644
2.1250709 1.5
2.989708
3.2545925 1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
3.7153992
2.9207517
2.3942978
2.224401
3.5258176
w/o const or trend w/ const, w/o trend w/ trend
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
PP & KPSS Tests PP Test
ACF
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1
Lag
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Actual Theoretical
Autoregressive Model AR(1) - Least Squares
Res Mean 11
-1.833E-14 10
9
Res Var 8
1.291889 7
6
5
4
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
Act Y Pred Y
PACF(1) #NAME?
PACF(2) #NAME?
mean 8.227547
φ0 #NAME?
φ1 #NAME?
Autoregressive Model AR(1) - Solver
Residual Y Pred φ
1 -0.697852 4.302148
2 -0.577844 6.143015 6.719204 5.022553
3 -1.111249 6.345957 7.445193 0.394373
4 -0.560334 6.978049 7.525228
5 1.656534 9.447754 7.774508 MSE
6 -0.414849 8.364252 8.748493 126.6051
7 -1.274931 7.07077 8.321189
8 -0.805935 7.022372 7.811074 |φ1| < 1
9 -0.179542 7.629407 7.791988 0.394373
10 -0.600022 7.451741 8.031386
11 -0.667633 7.313063 7.961319
12 -1.188274 6.736951 7.906628
13 -0.059363 7.635417 7.679425
14 0.280089 8.334256 8.033756
15 0.180475 8.514178 8.309359
16 1.070444 9.476115 8.380316
17 -0.340723 8.449723 8.759678
18 1.124574 9.504463 8.354896
19 -2.134184 6.667601 8.770858
20 0.185275 7.852316 7.652076
21 -0.222064 7.918862 8.119295
22 0.605041 8.772586 8.145539
23 2.409063 10.9181 8.482225
24 -0.227857 9.139382 9.328357
25 1.493304 10.14906 8.626879
26 0.713494 9.773117 9.025068
27 -0.765243 8.144003 8.876807
28 -1.419101 6.8385 8.234329
29 1.474037 9.209437 7.719474
30 0.153374 8.837149 8.654507
31 -0.91393 7.620929 8.507687
32 -0.258214 7.790158 8.028043
33 -0.496611 7.619452 8.094782
34 1.08012 9.127901 8.02746
35 0.627697 9.278858 8.622352
36 -0.047184 8.664359 8.681885
37 1.259788 9.725531 8.439543
38 2.516558 11.40677 8.858041
39 0.270954 9.833662 9.521077
40 -0.471427 8.462038 8.900685
41 -1.350982 7.033833 8.359753
42 -0.525234 7.2883 7.796508
43 0.971356 8.886675 7.896862
44 -1.07485 7.47982 8.527219
45 1.77381 9.765738 7.972393
46 -0.961595 7.9447 8.873898
47 -1.348797 6.829083 8.155729
48 0.189346 7.920979 7.71576
49 -2.217194 5.951198 8.146374
50 -0.156116 7.224363 7.369546
51 0.148753 8.038499 7.871648
52 -0.475447 7.739953 8.192721
53 0.859195 8.955176 8.074982
54 1.324616 9.906687 8.554234
55 1.203929 10.1666 8.929484
56 0.04996 9.116601 9.031988
57 -1.148103 7.498537 8.617895
58 -1.299961 6.699454 7.979775
59 2.309141 9.988923 7.664638
60 -0.427618 8.567951 8.961915
61 2.713477 11.14066 8.401522
62 1.405553 10.86182 9.416128
63 -2.397097 6.947629 9.306161
64 -1.398217 6.380835 7.762511
65 1.520345 9.072679 7.538983
66 -1.796693 6.832378 8.600574
67 -0.38337 7.349581 7.717059
68 0.723741 8.663573 7.92103
69 0.154506 8.619935 8.439233
70 0.634961 9.082935 8.422024
71 0.546486 9.17966 8.604618
72 -1.823274 6.84859 8.642764
73 0.01075 7.750186 7.723453
74 0.733078 8.833152 8.079018
75 0.837835 9.371095 8.506111
76 -0.095604 8.652834 8.718261
77 0.795332 9.256466 8.434998
78 0.948811 9.651397 8.673054
79 -2.209195 6.651363 8.828804
80 0.584285 8.24483 7.645672
81 -2.256573 6.041359 8.274092
82 0.232819 7.649363 7.405103
83 0.49524 8.554985 8.039256
84 0.894501 9.316496 8.396409
85 0.66144 9.388038 8.696728
86 0.0632 8.818415 8.724943
87 0.382543 8.909909 8.500299
88 -0.067312 8.496651 8.536381
89 1.197102 9.595762 8.373404
90 0.595799 9.434104 8.806864
91 -0.418668 8.354974 8.74311
92 0.495497 8.837487 8.31753
93 -0.73199 7.803005 8.50782
94 -1.689069 6.432133 8.099848
95 0.634185 8.207038 7.559213
96 -1.389314 6.893501 8.259188
97 -1.176043 6.581358 7.741164
98 -0.90943 6.723114 7.618064
99 -2.086143 5.603102 7.673968
100 1.008603 8.249844 7.232266
Autoregressive Model AR(1)
ACF
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Lag
φ0 5
φ1 0.4
φ2 -0.1
σ2 1
Lag PACF PACF (pop)
ess PACF for AR(2) Pr
0.5
1 #NAME? 0.4 0.4
2 #NAME? -0.1
0.3
3 #NAME? 0
0.2
PACF
4 #NAME? 0
0.1
5 #NAME? 0
6 #NAME? 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
7 #NAME? 0 -0.1
10 11 12 13 14 15
8 #NAME? 0 -0.2
9 #NAME? 0 Lag
10 #NAME? 0
11 #NAME? 0
heoretical) PACF (actual) PAC
12 #NAME? 0
13 #NAME? 0
14 #NAME? 0
15 #NAME? 0
PACF for AR(2) Process
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Lag
PACF
8 1.235184 8.501915 6 #NAME? 0
0.1
9 -0.387537 7.301222 7 #NAME? 0
0
10 -1.031421 6.038877 8 #NAME? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
11 -1.939339 4.74609 9 #NAME? 0 -0.1
12 0.359129 6.653677 10 #NAME? 0 -0.2
13 1.007114 8.193976 11 #NAME? 0
14 -0.051959 7.560264 12 #NAME? 0
15 -0.410257 6.794451 13 #NAME? 0 PACF (actual)
16 -2.237288 4.724467 14 #NAME? 0
17 -0.183186 6.027155 15 #NAME? 0
18 0.187495 7.12591
19 -0.056401 7.191248
20 -0.481216 6.682692
21 -0.381795 6.572157
22 -0.207855 6.752739
23 -1.39648 5.6474
24 -0.106317 6.477369
25 0.264166 7.290374
26 0.562094 7.830507
27 0.349518 7.752683
28 -1.419643 5.898379
29 0.412927 6.99701
30 0.35807 7.567036
31 -1.394531 5.932582
32 -0.344655 6.271674
33 0.677326 7.592737
34 -0.332722 7.077206
35 0.161933 7.233541
36 2.095899 9.281595
37 0.136871 8.126155
38 0.15164 7.473943
39 -1.328677 5.848284
40 -1.683178 4.908741
41 2.177333 8.556001
42 0.843005 8.774531
43 -0.116535 7.537678
44 1.133518 8.271136
45 2.061406 9.616092
46 1.100626 9.119949
47 -0.11243 7.57394
48 0.89968 8.017261
49 -0.731542 6.717969
50 0.745986 7.631448
51 -0.426425 6.954357
52 -0.410113 6.608486
53 -0.497835 6.450123
54 0.768711 7.687912
55 -1.636534 5.793618
56 0.011313 6.559969
57 1.005624 8.05025
58 -1.448039 6.116064
59 0.071485 6.712885
60 -0.100779 6.972769
61 -1.725637 5.392182
62 -1.179892 5.279704
63 0.897142 7.469805
64 -2.105325 5.354626
65 0.991393 7.386263
66 1.49795 8.916993
67 0.201838 8.030009
68 0.89484 8.215144
69 -1.000908 6.482149
70 1.855654 8.626999
71 1.491458 9.294043
72 0.558872 8.413789
73 2.225615 9.661726
74 0.330398 8.35371
75 -0.362595 7.012716
76 1.981862 8.951578
77 -0.092253 7.787106
78 -1.228238 5.991446
79 -0.570767 6.047101
80 -0.620294 6.199402
81 0.895195 7.770246
82 -0.653286 6.834872
83 0.371803 7.328727
84 -0.428719 6.819285
85 -0.568052 6.426789
86 -1.333279 5.555508
87 -0.200516 6.379008
88 -0.149184 6.846868
89 -0.571063 6.529784
90 0.044994 6.972221
91 0.785081 7.920991
92 0.277061 7.748235
93 -0.405206 6.901989
94 -1.742198 5.243774
95 -0.418793 5.988518
96 -0.947421 5.923608
97 0.746209 7.516801
98 0.447671 7.86203
99 -0.658547 6.734585
100 1.558213 8.465844
PACF for AR(2) Process
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Lag
Y X Y φ Act Y Pred Y
1 4.526757 4.526757
2 6.893371 6.893371
3 8.425395 1 6.8933708 4.526757 8.425395 5.010947 8.425395 7.423607
4 6.999502 1 8.4253951 6.893371 6.999502 0.454063 6.999502 7.7442
5 6.187594 1 6.9995021 8.425395 6.187594 -0.158472 6.187594 6.85397
6 5.812976 1 6.1875942 6.999502 5.812976 5.812976 6.711278
7 7.120073 1 5.8129765 6.187594 7.120073 7.120073 6.669843
8 8.501915 1 7.1200727 5.812976 8.501915 8.501915 7.322714
9 7.301222 1 8.5019149 7.120073 7.301222 7.301222 7.743019
10 6.038877 1 7.3012221 8.501915 6.038877 6.038877 6.978844
11 4.74609 1 6.0388768 7.301222 4.74609 4.74609 6.595936
12 6.653677 1 4.7460897 6.038877 6.653677 6.653677 6.208976
13 8.193976 1 6.6536767 4.74609 8.193976 8.193976 7.280013
14 7.560264 1 8.1939759 6.653677 7.560264 7.560264 7.677106
15 6.794451 1 7.5602635 8.193976 6.794451 6.794451 7.145265
16 4.724467 1 6.7944513 7.560264 4.724467 4.724467 6.897964
17 6.027155 1 4.7244665 6.794451 6.027155 6.027155 6.07942
18 7.12591 1 6.0271551 4.724467 7.12591 7.12591 6.998959
19 7.191248 1 7.12591 6.027155 7.191248 7.191248 7.291423
20 6.682692 1 7.1912478 7.12591 6.682692 6.682692 7.146968
21 6.572157 1 6.6826916 7.191248 6.572157 6.572157 6.905697
22 6.752739 1 6.5721571 6.682692 6.752739 6.752739 6.936099
23 5.6474 1 6.7527389 6.572157 5.6474 5.6474 7.035612
24 6.477369 1 5.6474001 6.752739 6.477369 6.477369 6.505101
25 7.290374 1 6.477369 5.6474 7.290374 7.290374 7.057125
26 7.830507 1 7.2903737 6.477369 7.830507 7.830507 7.294753
27 7.752683 1 7.8305067 7.290374 7.752683 7.752683 7.411169
28 5.898379 1 7.752683 7.830507 5.898379 5.898379 7.290236
29 6.99701 1 5.8983792 7.752683 6.99701 6.99701 6.460597
30 7.567036 1 6.9970102 5.898379 7.567036 7.567036 7.253301
31 5.932582 1 7.5670362 6.99701 5.932582 5.932582 7.338027
32 6.271674 1 5.9325824 7.567036 6.271674 6.271674 6.505548
33 7.592737 1 6.271674 5.932582 7.592737 7.592737 6.918533
34 7.077206 1 7.5927374 6.271674 7.077206 7.077206 7.464642
35 7.233541 1 7.0772059 7.592737 7.233541 7.233541 7.021206
36 9.281595 1 7.2335412 7.077206 9.281595 9.281595 7.17389
37 8.126155 1 9.2815948 7.233541 8.126155 8.126155 8.079061
38 7.473943 1 8.1261551 9.281595 7.473943 7.473943 7.229858
39 5.848284 1 7.4739429 8.126155 5.848284 5.848284 7.116818
40 4.908741 1 5.8482842 7.473943 4.908741 4.908741 6.482024
41 8.556001 1 4.908741 5.848284 8.556001 8.556001 6.313034
42 8.774531 1 8.556001 4.908741 8.774531 8.774531 8.118012
43 7.537678 1 8.7745309 8.556001 7.537678 7.537678 7.639249
44 8.271136 1 7.5376776 8.774531 8.271136 8.271136 7.043008
45 9.616092 1 8.2711358 7.537678 9.616092 9.616092 7.572051
46 9.119949 1 9.6160924 8.271136 9.119949 9.119949 8.066514
47 7.57394 1 9.1199492 9.616092 7.57394 7.57394 7.628095
48 8.017261 1 7.57394 9.119949 8.017261 8.017261 7.004734
49 6.717969 1 8.0172611 7.57394 6.717969 6.717969 7.45103
50 7.631448 1 6.7179685 8.017261 7.631448 7.631448 6.790814
51 6.954357 1 7.6314476 6.717969 6.954357 6.954357 7.411494
52 6.608486 1 6.9543573 7.631448 6.608486 6.608486 6.959291
53 6.450123 1 6.6084856 6.954357 6.450123 6.450123 6.909543
54 7.687912 1 6.4501231 6.608486 7.687912 7.687912 6.892448
55 5.793618 1 7.6879119 6.450123 5.793618 5.793618 7.479578
56 6.559969 1 5.7936182 7.687912 6.559969 6.559969 6.423294
57 8.05025 1 6.5599686 5.793618 8.05025 8.05025 7.071459
58 6.116064 1 8.05025 6.559969 6.116064 6.116064 7.626695
59 6.712885 1 6.1160642 8.05025 6.712885 6.712885 6.512284
60 6.972769 1 6.7128854 6.116064 6.972769 6.972769 7.089794
61 5.392182 1 6.9727692 6.712885 5.392182 5.392182 7.113218
62 5.279704 1 5.392182 6.972769 5.279704 5.279704 6.354347
63 7.469805 1 5.2797036 5.392182 7.469805 7.469805 6.553754
64 5.354626 1 7.4698051 5.279704 5.354626 5.354626 7.566023
65 7.386263 1 5.3546265 7.469805 7.386263 7.386263 6.258527
66 8.916993 1 7.386263 5.354626 8.916993 8.916993 7.516217
67 8.030009 1 8.9169929 7.386263 8.030009 8.030009 7.889307
68 8.215144 1 8.0300089 8.916993 8.215144 8.215144 7.243981
69 6.482149 1 8.2151443 8.030009 6.482149 6.482149 7.468607
70 8.626999 1 6.4821485 8.215144 8.626999 8.626999 6.652378
71 9.294043 1 8.6269995 6.482149 9.294043 9.294043 7.900908
72 8.413789 1 9.2940432 8.626999 8.413789 8.413789 7.863889
73 9.661726 1 8.4137893 9.294043 9.661726 9.661726 7.35849
74 8.35371 1 9.6617263 8.413789 8.35371 8.35371 8.064628
75 7.012716 1 8.35371 9.661726 7.012716 7.012716 7.272942
76 8.951578 1 7.0127165 8.35371 8.951578 8.951578 6.871331
77 7.787106 1 8.9515775 7.012716 7.787106 7.787106 7.964207
78 5.991446 1 7.787106 8.951578 5.991446 5.991446 7.128207
79 6.047101 1 5.9914462 7.787106 6.047101 6.047101 6.497401
80 6.199402 1 6.0471013 5.991446 6.199402 6.199402 6.807234
81 7.770246 1 6.1994021 6.047101 7.770246 7.770246 6.867569
82 6.834872 1 7.7702461 6.199402 6.834872 6.834872 7.556696
83 7.328727 1 6.834872 7.770246 7.328727 7.328727 6.883041
84 6.819285 1 7.3287275 6.834872 6.819285 6.819285 7.255514
85 6.426789 1 6.8192852 7.328727 6.426789 6.426789 6.945932
86 5.555508 1 6.4267891 6.819285 5.555508 5.555508 6.848447
87 6.379008 1 5.5555076 6.426789 6.379008 6.379008 6.51503
88 6.846868 1 6.3790077 5.555508 6.846868 6.846868 7.027025
89 6.529784 1 6.8468684 6.379008 6.529784 6.529784 7.108961
90 6.972221 1 6.5297839 6.846868 6.972221 6.972221 6.890842
91 7.920991 1 6.9722207 6.529784 7.920991 7.920991 7.141985
92 7.748235 1 7.9209906 6.972221 7.748235 7.748235 7.502673
93 6.901989 1 7.7482353 7.920991 6.901989 6.901989 7.273877
94 5.243774 1 6.9019892 7.748235 5.243774 5.243774 6.917005
95 5.988518 1 5.2437738 6.901989 5.988518 5.988518 6.298177
96 5.923608 1 5.9885181 5.243774 5.923608 5.923608 6.899119
97 7.516801 1 5.9236084 5.988518 7.516801 7.516801 6.751625
98 7.86203 1 7.5168006 5.923608 7.86203 7.86203 7.485321
99 6.734585 1 7.8620303 7.516801 6.734585 6.734585 7.3896
100 8.465844 1 6.7345852 7.86203 8.465844 8.465844 6.822959
Residual MSE
AR(2) Process
98.440741
10
-0.898301 7
Res Var
0.45023 1.014853
1.179201 6
-0.441797 5
-0.939967
-1.849847 4
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
0.444701
0.913963 Act Y Pred Y
-0.116842
-0.350814
-2.173497
-0.052265
0.126951
-0.100175
-0.464276
-0.33354
-0.18336
-1.388212
-0.027731
0.233249
0.535754
0.341514
-1.391856
0.536413
0.313735
-1.405444
-0.233874
0.674205
-0.387436
0.212335
2.107705
0.047094
0.244085
-1.268534
-1.573283
2.242967
0.656518
-0.101571
1.228128
2.044041
1.053435
-0.054155
1.012527
-0.733061
0.840633
-0.457137
-0.350805
-0.45942
0.795464
-1.68596
0.136675
0.978791
-1.510631
0.200601
-0.117025
-1.721036
-1.074643
0.916051
-2.211397
1.127736
1.400776
0.140702
0.971163
-0.986458
1.974621
1.393135
0.549901
2.303237
0.289082
-0.260226
2.080247
-0.177101
-1.136761
-0.450299
-0.607832
0.902678
-0.721824
0.445686
-0.436229
-0.519143
-1.292939
-0.136022
-0.180157
-0.579177
0.081379
0.779005
0.245563
-0.371888
-1.673231
-0.309658
-0.975511
0.765176
0.376709
-0.655015
1.642885
X1 X2 Y Regression Analysis
6.893371 4.526757 8.425395
8.425395 6.893371 6.999502 OVERALL FIT
6.999502 8.425395 6.187594 Multiple R #NAME? AIC #NAME?
6.187594 6.999502 5.812976 R Square #NAME? AICc #NAME?
5.812976 6.187594 7.120073 Adjusted R Square #NAME? SBC #NAME?
7.120073 5.812976 8.501915 Standard Error #NAME?
8.501915 7.120073 7.301222 Observations 98
7.301222 8.501915 6.038877
6.038877 7.301222 4.74609 ANOVA Alpha
4.74609 6.038877 6.653677 df SS MS F
6.653677 4.74609 8.193976 Regression 2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8.193976 6.653677 7.560264 Residual 95 #NAME? #NAME?
7.560264 8.193976 6.794451 Total 97 118.9636
6.794451 7.560264 4.724467
4.724467 6.794451 6.027155 coeff std err t stat p-value
6.027155 4.724467 7.12591 Intercept #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.12591 6.027155 7.191248 X1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
7.191248 7.12591 6.682692 X2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
6.682692 7.191248 6.572157
6.572157 6.682692 6.752739
6.752739 6.572157 5.6474
5.6474 6.752739 6.477369
6.477369 5.6474 7.290374
7.290374 6.477369 7.830507
7.830507 7.290374 7.752683
7.752683 7.830507 5.898379
5.898379 7.752683 6.99701
6.99701 5.898379 7.567036
7.567036 6.99701 5.932582
5.932582 7.567036 6.271674
6.271674 5.932582 7.592737
7.592737 6.271674 7.077206
7.077206 7.592737 7.233541
7.233541 7.077206 9.281595
9.281595 7.233541 8.126155
8.126155 9.281595 7.473943
7.473943 8.126155 5.848284
5.848284 7.473943 4.908741
4.908741 5.848284 8.556001
8.556001 4.908741 8.774531
8.774531 8.556001 7.537678
7.537678 8.774531 8.271136
8.271136 7.537678 9.616092
9.616092 8.271136 9.119949
9.119949 9.616092 7.57394
7.57394 9.119949 8.017261
8.017261 7.57394 6.717969
6.717969 8.017261 7.631448
7.631448 6.717969 6.954357
6.954357 7.631448 6.608486
6.608486 6.954357 6.450123
6.450123 6.608486 7.687912
7.687912 6.450123 5.793618
5.793618 7.687912 6.559969
6.559969 5.793618 8.05025
8.05025 6.559969 6.116064
6.116064 8.05025 6.712885
6.712885 6.116064 6.972769
6.972769 6.712885 5.392182
5.392182 6.972769 5.279704
5.279704 5.392182 7.469805
7.469805 5.279704 5.354626
5.354626 7.469805 7.386263
7.386263 5.354626 8.916993
8.916993 7.386263 8.030009
8.030009 8.916993 8.215144
8.215144 8.030009 6.482149
6.482149 8.215144 8.626999
8.626999 6.482149 9.294043
9.294043 8.626999 8.413789
8.413789 9.294043 9.661726
9.661726 8.413789 8.35371
8.35371 9.661726 7.012716
7.012716 8.35371 8.951578
8.951578 7.012716 7.787106
7.787106 8.951578 5.991446
5.991446 7.787106 6.047101
6.047101 5.991446 6.199402
6.199402 6.047101 7.770246
7.770246 6.199402 6.834872
6.834872 7.770246 7.328727
7.328727 6.834872 6.819285
6.819285 7.328727 6.426789
6.426789 6.819285 5.555508
5.555508 6.426789 6.379008
6.379008 5.555508 6.846868
6.846868 6.379008 6.529784
6.529784 6.846868 6.972221
6.972221 6.529784 7.920991
7.920991 6.972221 7.748235
7.748235 7.920991 6.901989
6.901989 7.748235 5.243774
5.243774 6.901989 5.988518
5.988518 5.243774 5.923608
5.923608 5.988518 7.516801
7.516801 5.923608 7.86203
7.86203 7.516801 6.734585
6.734585 7.86203 8.465844
ARMap
X1 X2 Y
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
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#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
0.05 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
p-value sig #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
lower upper vif #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Autoregressive Model AR(2) - Solver
Residual Y Pred φ
1 -0.473243 4.526757
2 0.082668 6.893371 5.010947
3 1.120723 8.425395 7.423607 0.454063
4 -0.681319 6.999502 7.7442 -0.158472
5 -0.769667 6.187594 6.85397
6 -0.962111 5.812976 6.711278 SSE
7 0.413642 7.120073 6.669843 98.44074
8 1.235184 8.501915 7.322714
9 -0.387537 7.301222 7.743019 |φ2| < 1
10 -1.031421 6.038877 6.978844 0.158472
11 -1.939339 4.74609 6.595936
12 0.359129 6.653677 6.208976 |φ1|+φ2 < 1
13 1.007114 8.193976 7.280013 0.295591
14 -0.051959 7.560264 7.677106
15 -0.410257 6.794451 7.145265
16 -2.237288 4.724467 6.897964
17 -0.183186 6.027155 6.07942
18 0.187495 7.12591 6.998959
19 -0.056401 7.191248 7.291423
20 -0.481216 6.682692 7.146968
21 -0.381795 6.572157 6.905697
22 -0.207855 6.752739 6.936099
23 -1.39648 5.6474 7.035612
24 -0.106317 6.477369 6.505101
25 0.264166 7.290374 7.057125
26 0.562094 7.830507 7.294753
27 0.349518 7.752683 7.411169
28 -1.419643 5.898379 7.290236
29 0.412927 6.99701 6.460597
30 0.35807 7.567036 7.253301
31 -1.394531 5.932582 7.338027
32 -0.344655 6.271674 6.505548
33 0.677326 7.592737 6.918533
34 -0.332722 7.077206 7.464642
35 0.161933 7.233541 7.021206
36 2.095899 9.281595 7.17389
37 0.136871 8.126155 8.079061
38 0.15164 7.473943 7.229858
39 -1.328677 5.848284 7.116818
40 -1.683178 4.908741 6.482024
41 2.177333 8.556001 6.313034
42 0.843005 8.774531 8.118012
43 -0.116535 7.537678 7.639249
44 1.133518 8.271136 7.043008
45 2.061406 9.616092 7.572051
46 1.100626 9.119949 8.066514
47 -0.11243 7.57394 7.628095
48 0.89968 8.017261 7.004734
49 -0.731542 6.717969 7.45103
50 0.745986 7.631448 6.790814
51 -0.426425 6.954357 7.411494
52 -0.410113 6.608486 6.959291
53 -0.497835 6.450123 6.909543
54 0.768711 7.687912 6.892448
55 -1.636534 5.793618 7.479578
56 0.011313 6.559969 6.423294
57 1.005624 8.05025 7.071459
58 -1.448039 6.116064 7.626695
59 0.071485 6.712885 6.512284
60 -0.100779 6.972769 7.089794
61 -1.725637 5.392182 7.113218
62 -1.179892 5.279704 6.354347
63 0.897142 7.469805 6.553754
64 -2.105325 5.354626 7.566023
65 0.991393 7.386263 6.258527
66 1.49795 8.916993 7.516217
67 0.201838 8.030009 7.889307
68 0.89484 8.215144 7.243981
69 -1.000908 6.482149 7.468607
70 1.855654 8.626999 6.652378
71 1.491458 9.294043 7.900908
72 0.558872 8.413789 7.863889
73 2.225615 9.661726 7.35849
74 0.330398 8.35371 8.064628
75 -0.362595 7.012716 7.272942
76 1.981862 8.951578 6.871331
77 -0.092253 7.787106 7.964207
78 -1.228238 5.991446 7.128207
79 -0.570767 6.047101 6.497401
80 -0.620294 6.199402 6.807234
81 0.895195 7.770246 6.867569
82 -0.653286 6.834872 7.556696
83 0.371803 7.328727 6.883041
84 -0.428719 6.819285 7.255514
85 -0.568052 6.426789 6.945932
86 -1.333279 5.555508 6.848447
87 -0.200516 6.379008 6.51503
88 -0.149184 6.846868 7.027025
89 -0.571063 6.529784 7.108961
90 0.044994 6.972221 6.890842
91 0.785081 7.920991 7.141985
92 0.277061 7.748235 7.502673
93 -0.405206 6.901989 7.273877
94 -1.742198 5.243774 6.917005
95 -0.418793 5.988518 6.298177
96 -0.947421 5.923608 6.899119
97 0.746209 7.516801 6.751625
98 0.447671 7.86203 7.485321
99 -0.658547 6.734585 7.3896
100 1.558213 8.465844 6.822959
Autoregressive Model AR(2)
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Forecast (reduced) Forecast
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper time forecast
1 -2.158341 0 -2.158341 0.6235783 -3.380532 -0.93615 1 4.5267575
2 0.208272 0 0.208272 0.6235783 -1.013919 1.4304631 2 6.8933708
3 1.7402963 0 1.7402963 0.6235783 0.5181052 2.9624874 3 8.4253951
4 0.3144033 -0.718908 1.0333113 0.6235783 -0.18888 2.2555024 4 6.9995021
5 -0.497505 0.3521037 -0.849608 0.6235783 -2.071799 0.3725828 5 6.1875942
6 -0.872122 0.0919201 -0.964042 0.6235783 -2.186233 0.2581487 6 5.8129765
7 0.4349739 0.4338013 0.0011726 0.6235783 -1.221018 1.2233637 7 7.1200727
8 1.8168162 1.1591017 0.6577145 0.6235783 -0.564477 1.8799056 8 8.5019149
9 0.6161233 0.2499167 0.3662066 0.6235783 -0.855984 1.5883977 9 7.3012221
10 -0.646222 0.3097129 -0.955935 0.6235783 -2.178126 0.2662562 10 6.0388768
11 -1.939009 -0.790101 -1.148908 0.6235783 -2.371099 0.0732834 11 4.7460897
12 -0.031422 0.1371673 -0.168589 0.6235783 -1.39078 1.0536018 12 6.6536767
13 1.5088771 0.3473459 1.1615313 0.6235783 -0.06066 2.3837224 13 8.1939759
14 0.8751648 -0.146742 1.0219069 0.6235783 -0.200284 2.244098 14 7.5602635
15 0.1093525 0.6936098 -0.584257 0.6235783 -1.806448 0.6379338 15 6.7944513
16 -1.960632 -0.90432 -1.056312 0.6235783 -2.278503 0.1658793 16 4.7244665
17 -0.657944 -0.03026 -0.627683 0.6235783 -1.849875 0.5945076 17 6.0271551
18 0.4408112 -0.334117 0.7749281 0.6235783 -0.447263 1.9971192 18 7.12591
19 0.5061491 -0.705819 1.2119678 0.6235783 -0.010223 2.4341589 19 7.1912478
20 -0.002407 -0.144348 0.1419411 0.6235783 -1.08025 1.3641322 20 6.6826916
21 -0.425225 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 21 6.2598741
22 -0.264977 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 22 6.4201215
23 0.1678917 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 23 6.8529905
24 0.3251448 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 24 7.0102436
25 0.0732224 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 25 6.7583212
x1 x2 x3 y OVERALL FIT
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Multiple R #NAME? AIC
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? R Square #NAME? AICc
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Adjusted R Square #NAME? SBC
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Standard Error #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Observations 0
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? ANOVA
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? df SS MS
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Regression 0 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Residual -1 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Total -1 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? coeff std err t stat
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Intercept #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? x1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? x2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? x3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Reformat
x1 x2 x3 y
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Alpha 0.05
F p-value sig
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Residual Y
1 -0.694201 yi = 4 + εi + .5εi -1
2 -0.875588 2.777312
12
3 -0.743921 2.818285
4 3.072809 6.700848 10
5 -1.941937 3.594467
8
6 -1.72965 1.299381
7 2.196488 5.331663 6
8 -3.621269 1.476975 4
9 -0.73537 1.453995
2
10 -2.396555 1.23576
11 -0.750725 2.050998 0
2 11 20 29 38 47 56 65 74 83 92 101 110 119 128 137 146 155 164 173 182 191 200
12 0.516218 4.140856 -2
13 1.85755 6.11566
-4
14 1.855503 6.784278
15 -1.008451 3.9193
16 1.496039 4.991814 μ 4 ӯ 4.358422
17 -0.400397 4.347623 pop var 5 s2 4.440172
18 -2.16593 1.633872
19 1.265946 4.182981
20 1.380362 6.013335
21 -0.689942 4.000239
22 -0.607233 3.047796
23 0.433199 4.129582
24 -0.777262 3.439337
25 -1.816484 1.794885
26 2.336201 5.427959
27 0.539408 5.707508
28 -0.04405 4.225654
29 2.305758 6.283733
30 4.424591 9.57747
31 -0.877612 5.334683
32 -0.089412 3.471782
33 1.31161 5.266904
34 -0.057408 4.598397
35 -0.230051 3.741245
36 0.578257 4.463231
37 -2.616962 1.672166
38 -2.490573 0.200946
39 0.586925 3.341639
40 -0.812345 3.481117
41 2.003798 5.597625
42 3.842472 8.844371
43 0.325962 6.247198
44 0.870087 5.033067
45 -0.36537 4.069673
46 -1.423539 2.393776
47 2.504624 5.792854
48 0.997222 6.249534
49 -0.276542 4.222069
50 1.585611 5.44734
51 0.20962 5.002425
52 1.54842 5.65323
53 -0.928265 3.845945
54 3.934099 7.469967
55 -1.634417 4.332632
56 -0.634817 2.547974
57 1.019893 4.702485
58 1.229442 5.739388
59 3.298761 7.913482
60 0.644132 6.293512
61 -0.059635 4.262431
62 3.156317 7.126499
63 -2.30624 3.271918
64 -0.402189 2.444691
65 -0.527594 3.271312
66 0.905543 4.641746
67 1.483915 5.936686
68 -0.260266 4.481691
69 -0.033626 3.836241
70 0.687946 4.671134
71 4.136243 8.480216
72 0.452115 6.520236
73 1.125263 5.35132
74 2.013208 6.575839
75 0.978664 5.985268
76 1.926993 6.416325
77 -2.318028 2.645469
78 -0.919635 1.921352
79 2.942693 6.482875
80 1.019378 6.490724
81 1.684781 6.19447
82 -2.857936 1.984454
83 -4.613725 -2.042693
84 3.547798 5.240936
85 0.978538 6.752437
86 -2.838831 1.650438
87 0.341232 2.921817
88 1.524689 5.695305
89 0.162925 4.925269
90 -1.779686 2.301776
91 -1.322879 1.787278
92 2.080778 5.419339
93 -2.219755 2.820634
94 0.906091 3.796214
95 1.704588 6.157633
96 -1.892704 2.959589
97 -3.019043 0.034605
98 -0.384934 2.105545
99 2.414444 6.221977
100 -1.826766 3.380456
101 -4.672039 -1.585422
102 -0.679697 0.984283
103 1.023579 4.68373
104 2.327448 6.839237
105 1.031626 6.19535
106 -1.25121 3.264603
107 0.109218 3.483613
108 2.407094 6.461703
109 0.532992 5.736538
110 1.925761 6.192257
111 0.540306 5.503186
112 -0.11988 4.150272
113 -1.108624 2.831436
114 -0.730794 2.714894
115 -0.263981 3.370622
116 -0.698382 3.169627
117 0.098942 3.749751
118 1.542661 5.592132
119 0.028236 4.799567
120 3.729852 7.74397
121 -0.135762 5.729164
122 0.285659 4.217778
123 -1.455809 2.68702
124 -0.407847 2.864249
125 2.134355 5.930432
126 -1.549115 3.518063
127 -0.07975 3.145693
128 0.043903 4.004029
129 -0.270099 3.751852
130 5.045333 8.910283
131 0.510531 7.033197
132 0.621384 4.876649
133 2.247538 6.55823
134 -0.620139 4.50363
135 0.554357 4.244287
136 -4.858762 -0.581583
137 -0.247252 1.323367
138 -0.384728 3.491646
139 -2.14337 1.664266
140 -2.829325 0.09899
141 -4.64066 -2.055322
142 4.40236 6.08203
143 1.038024 7.239204
144 -3.073321 1.445691
145 -1.214113 1.249227
146 0.893483 4.286426
147 2.34368 6.790421
148 2.932516 8.104356
149 0.143675 5.609933
150 -3.952935 0.118902
151 5.561309 7.584842
152 -0.100199 6.680456
153 -0.666068 3.283833
154 -2.09814 1.568826
155 1.225116 4.176046
156 -0.126763 4.485795
157 1.157006 5.093625
158 0.409895 4.988398
159 2.293652 6.4986
160 2.485712 7.632538
161 0.6955 5.938356
162 0.603992 4.951742
163 1.683438 5.985434
164 4.491962 9.333681
165 -2.897367 3.348614
166 -0.236962 2.314355
167 0.744259 4.625778
168 0.312559 4.684688
169 1.711736 5.868015
170 1.409229 6.265097
171 -1.044494 3.660121
172 2.046858 5.524611
173 1.018152 6.041581
174 -0.144139 4.364937
175 -3.162477 0.765454
176 1.064381 3.483142
177 -0.375418 4.156773
178 -1.302491 2.5098
179 0.146239 3.494993
180 -0.797526 3.275594
181 2.133749 5.734987
182 -0.07552 4.991355
183 -1.663909 2.298331
184 1.508676 4.676722
185 2.390232 7.14457
186 -3.31717 1.877946
187 1.078133 3.419548
188 1.556731 6.095797
189 2.307016 7.085382
190 0.554413 5.707922
191 -1.975138 2.302069
192 0.911984 3.924415
193 -0.814635 3.641357
194 0.490769 4.083452
195 -2.28856 1.956825
196 0.930232 3.785952
197 0.796441 5.261557
198 4.144183 8.542404
199 -0.8118 5.260292
200 -1.963861 1.630239
'=NORMINV(RAND(),0,2)
#NAME?
5 164 173 182 191 200
Moving Average MA(1)
ACF
7 2.196488 5.331663 7 #NAME? 0 0.2
0.15
8 -3.621269 1.476975 8 #NAME? 0
0.1
9 -0.73537 1.453995 9 #NAME? 0 0.05
10 -2.396555 1.23576 10 #NAME? 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
11 -0.750725 2.050998 11 #NAME? 0
12 0.516218 4.140856 12 #NAME? 0 Lag
13 1.85755 6.11566 13 #NAME? 0
14 1.855503 6.784278 14 #NAME? 0 ACF ACF (pop)
15 -1.008451 3.9193 15 #NAME? 0
16 1.496039 4.991814
17 -0.400397 4.347623
18 -2.16593 1.633872
19 1.265946 4.182981
20 1.380362 6.013335
21 -0.689942 4.000239
22 -0.607233 3.047796
23 0.433199 4.129582
24 -0.777262 3.439337
25 -1.816484 1.794885
26 2.336201 5.427959
27 0.539408 5.707508
28 -0.04405 4.225654
29 2.305758 6.283733
30 4.424591 9.57747
31 -0.877612 5.334683
32 -0.089412 3.471782
33 1.31161 5.266904
34 -0.057408 4.598397
35 -0.230051 3.741245
36 0.578257 4.463231
37 -2.616962 1.672166
38 -2.490573 0.200946
39 0.586925 3.341639
40 -0.812345 3.481117
41 2.003798 5.597625
42 3.842472 8.844371
43 0.325962 6.247198
44 0.870087 5.033067
45 -0.36537 4.069673
46 -1.423539 2.393776
47 2.504624 5.792854
48 0.997222 6.249534
49 -0.276542 4.222069
50 1.585611 5.44734
51 0.20962 5.002425
52 1.54842 5.65323
53 -0.928265 3.845945
54 3.934099 7.469967
55 -1.634417 4.332632
56 -0.634817 2.547974
57 1.019893 4.702485
58 1.229442 5.739388
59 3.298761 7.913482
60 0.644132 6.293512
61 -0.059635 4.262431
62 3.156317 7.126499
63 -2.30624 3.271918
64 -0.402189 2.444691
65 -0.527594 3.271312
66 0.905543 4.641746
67 1.483915 5.936686
68 -0.260266 4.481691
69 -0.033626 3.836241
70 0.687946 4.671134
71 4.136243 8.480216
72 0.452115 6.520236
73 1.125263 5.35132
74 2.013208 6.575839
75 0.978664 5.985268
76 1.926993 6.416325
77 -2.318028 2.645469
78 -0.919635 1.921352
79 2.942693 6.482875
80 1.019378 6.490724
81 1.684781 6.19447
82 -2.857936 1.984454
83 -4.613725 -2.042693
84 3.547798 5.240936
85 0.978538 6.752437
86 -2.838831 1.650438
87 0.341232 2.921817
88 1.524689 5.695305
89 0.162925 4.925269
90 -1.779686 2.301776
91 -1.322879 1.787278
92 2.080778 5.419339
93 -2.219755 2.820634
94 0.906091 3.796214
95 1.704588 6.157633
96 -1.892704 2.959589
97 -3.019043 0.034605
98 -0.384934 2.105545
99 2.414444 6.221977
100 -1.826766 3.380456
101 -4.672039 -1.585422
102 -0.679697 0.984283
103 1.023579 4.68373
104 2.327448 6.839237
105 1.031626 6.19535
106 -1.25121 3.264603
107 0.109218 3.483613
108 2.407094 6.461703
109 0.532992 5.736538
110 1.925761 6.192257
111 0.540306 5.503186
112 -0.11988 4.150272
113 -1.108624 2.831436
114 -0.730794 2.714894
115 -0.263981 3.370622
116 -0.698382 3.169627
117 0.098942 3.749751
118 1.542661 5.592132
119 0.028236 4.799567
120 3.729852 7.74397
121 -0.135762 5.729164
122 0.285659 4.217778
123 -1.455809 2.68702
124 -0.407847 2.864249
125 2.134355 5.930432
126 -1.549115 3.518063
127 -0.07975 3.145693
128 0.043903 4.004029
129 -0.270099 3.751852
130 5.045333 8.910283
131 0.510531 7.033197
132 0.621384 4.876649
133 2.247538 6.55823
134 -0.620139 4.50363
135 0.554357 4.244287
136 -4.858762 -0.581583
137 -0.247252 1.323367
138 -0.384728 3.491646
139 -2.14337 1.664266
140 -2.829325 0.09899
141 -4.64066 -2.055322
142 4.40236 6.08203
143 1.038024 7.239204
144 -3.073321 1.445691
145 -1.214113 1.249227
146 0.893483 4.286426
147 2.34368 6.790421
148 2.932516 8.104356
149 0.143675 5.609933
150 -3.952935 0.118902
151 5.561309 7.584842
152 -0.100199 6.680456
153 -0.666068 3.283833
154 -2.09814 1.568826
155 1.225116 4.176046
156 -0.126763 4.485795
157 1.157006 5.093625
158 0.409895 4.988398
159 2.293652 6.4986
160 2.485712 7.632538
161 0.6955 5.938356
162 0.603992 4.951742
163 1.683438 5.985434
164 4.491962 9.333681
165 -2.897367 3.348614
166 -0.236962 2.314355
167 0.744259 4.625778
168 0.312559 4.684688
169 1.711736 5.868015
170 1.409229 6.265097
171 -1.044494 3.660121
172 2.046858 5.524611
173 1.018152 6.041581
174 -0.144139 4.364937
175 -3.162477 0.765454
176 1.064381 3.483142
177 -0.375418 4.156773
178 -1.302491 2.5098
179 0.146239 3.494993
180 -0.797526 3.275594
181 2.133749 5.734987
182 -0.07552 4.991355
183 -1.663909 2.298331
184 1.508676 4.676722
185 2.390232 7.14457
186 -3.31717 1.877946
187 1.078133 3.419548
188 1.556731 6.095797
189 2.307016 7.085382
190 0.554413 5.707922
191 -1.975138 2.302069
192 0.911984 3.924415
193 -0.814635 3.641357
194 0.490769 4.083452
195 -2.28856 1.956825
196 0.930232 3.785952
197 0.796441 5.261557
198 4.144183 8.542404
199 -0.8118 5.260292
200 -1.963861 1.630239 var 4.46259756
'=NORMINV(RAND(),0,2)
#NAME?
CF for MA(1) Process
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Lag
PACF
7 2.196488 5.331663 7 #NAME? 0.00585946 0.1
'=NORMINV(RAND(),0,2)
#NAME?
Lag PACF (pop)
1 0.4
ACF for MA(1) Process
2 -0.19047619
3 0.094117647
4 -0.04692082
5 0.023443223
6 -0.01171947
7 0.005859464
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 8 -0.0029297
9 0.001464845
10 -0.00073242
11 0.000366211
Lag 12 -0.00018311
13 9.15527E-05
ACF (actual) PACF (theoretical) 14 -4.57764E-05
15 2.28882E-05
Convert AR(1) to MA(∞) Convert AR(2) to MA(∞) AR(2) Model
φ0 5 φ0 6 φ0 6
φ1 0.4 φ1 0.4 φ1 0.4
φ2 -0.2 φ2 -0.2
µ 8.333333 µ 7.5
ψ0 #NAME? ψ0 #NAME?
ψ1 #NAME? ψ1 #NAME?
ψ2 #NAME? ψ2 #NAME?
ψ3 #NAME? ψ3 #NAME?
ψ4 #NAME? ψ4 #NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Fitting an MA(1) process using the ACF
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,.5)
#NAME?
θn1 vn concept cell formula T Test: One Sample
0.215651 v0 G4 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? θ11 F5 #NAME? SUMMARY
#NAME? #NAME? v1 G5 #NAME? Count Mean
#NAME? #NAME? 200 0.032013
#NAME? #NAME? concept value formula
#NAME? #NAME? γ0 0.215651 #NAME? T TEST
#NAME? #NAME? γ1 #NAME? #NAME? p-value
#NAME? #NAME? One Tail 0.165997
#NAME? #NAME? Two Tail 0.331994
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
sample pop
n 200 200
θ #NAME? -0.4
Alpha 0.05 s.e. #NAME? 0.008979
Std Dev Std Err t df Cohen d Effect r
0.465548 0.032919 0.972478 199 0.068765 0.068774 alpha 0.05 0.05
lower #NAME? -0.41477
Hyp Mean 0 upper #NAME? -0.38523
t-crit lower upper sig
1.652547 no
1.971957 -0.032902 0.096928 no
sample formulas
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Fitting an MA(1) process using Solver
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,.5)
#NAME?
Lag ACF
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME? Correlogram
3 #NAME? 12
4 #NAME?
10
5 #NAME?
6 #NAME? 8
7 #NAME? 6
ACF
8 #NAME?
9 #NAME? 4
10 #NAME? 2
11 #NAME?
#NAME? 0
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
13 #NAME? Lag
14 #NAME?
15 #NAME?
p-value #NAME?
Fitting an MA(2) process using Solver
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,.5)
#NAME?
Lag ACF
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
7 #NAME?
8 #NAME?
9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?
12 #NAME?
13 #NAME?
14 #NAME?
15 #NAME?
p-value #NAME?
Fitting an MA(3) process using Solver
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,.5)
#NAME?
MA(3) roots
real imag abs
θ3 0.6 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
θ2 -0.2 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
θ1 0.5 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Cubic polynomial
p 3 #NAME?
q -1.5 #NAME?
P 1 #NAME?
Q 0.75 #NAME?
Q2+P3 1.5625 #NAME?
real
u 2 #NAME?
w 1.259921 #NAME?
r1 1.466221 #NAME?
#NAME?
b' -1.533779 #NAME?
c' 3.751141 #NAME?
D' -12.65208 #NAME?
real imag
r2 0.76689 -1.778488 #NAME? #NAME?
r3 0.76689 1.778488 #NAME? #NAME?
v -40.5
w -9
D -168.75
sqrt 4556.25
real imag p(r)-real p(r)-imag
r1 1.466221 0 0
r2 0.76689 -1.778488 #NAME? #NAME?
r3 0.76689 1.778488 #NAME? #NAME?
x3+2x2-x-2 x3+4x2+5x+2 x3-3x2+3x-1
b 2 b 4 b -3
c -1 c 5 c 3
d -2 d 2 d -1
p -2.333333 p -0.333333 p 0
q -0.740741 q 0.0740741 q 0
P -0.777778 P -0.111111 P 0
Q 0.3703704 Q -0.037037 Q 0
Q2+P3 -0.333333 Q2+P3 -1.691E-17 Q2+P3 0
r 2 1.062443 -0.436716
s -11 -2.364706 -2.885676
coeff b c coeff b c coeff b c coeff
-60 -5.599125 61.69059 -60 0.062801 76.18293 -60 -0.000111 75.99974 -60
8 -0.542964 -9.521186 8 0.042138 -7.896051 8 2.324E-05 -7.999949 8
-11 -14.60476 -18.206 -11 -15.00718 -19.01436 -11 -15 -19 -11
2 2.059394 2.118788 2 1.997544 1.995088 2 1.999999 1.999999 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4.566E-17 4.566E-17
-4 -4
-16
root 2.283E-17 -2
root 2.283E-17 2
Bairstow's method
coeff # coeff b
0 -60 4.432E-05
1 8 -6.51E-06
2 -11 -15
3 2 2
4 1 1
r 9.285E-08 2.006E-09 r -2
s -4 s 15
yi = .7yi-1 + εi - .2εi-1
Residual Y
1 0.117676 0.117676
2 0.649413 0.708251 ARMA(1,1) Process
3 -2.029125 -1.663231 4
4 -0.721088 -1.479526
5 0.707476 -0.183974 3
6 0.791634 0.521357
2
7 -0.23543 -0.028806
8 -1.348948 -1.322027 1
9 1.205584 0.549955
0
10 1.18382 1.327672 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
11 -0.372295 0.320311 -1
12 0.013339 0.312015
13 0.702456 0.918199 -2
14 -0.350362 0.151886
-3
15 0.217137 0.39353
16 -0.506607 -0.274564
17 1.319711 1.228838
18 2.072156 2.668401
19 1.964279 3.417728
20 0.239643 2.239197
21 0.603051 2.12256
22 -0.901383 0.463799
23 -1.055741 -0.550805
24 1.357362 1.182946
25 -2.969889 -2.413299
26 2.074802 0.979471
27 0.280213 0.550882
28 0.898346 1.227921
29 -1.603382 -0.923507
30 0.235499 -0.090279
31 1.794088 1.683793
32 -1.430609 -0.610771
33 1.422463 1.281045
34 -1.534485 -0.922246
35 -0.239435 -0.57811
36 1.125487 0.768697
37 -0.268286 0.044705
38 -0.58229 -0.497339
39 2.248324 2.016644
40 -1.354397 -0.392411
41 0.482612 0.478803
42 -0.107491 0.131149
43 -0.803047 -0.689745
44 0.275451 -0.046761
45 0.019907 -0.067916
46 1.686625 1.635103
47 -0.379004 0.428243
48 -0.68134 -0.305769
49 0.246807 0.169037
50 0.417691 0.486656
51 0.399029 0.65615
52 -0.250181 0.129318
53 -1.174253 -1.033694
54 -1.404513 -1.893249
55 -0.28173 -1.326101
56 -0.388213 -1.260138
57 -0.43157 -1.236024
58 1.386535 0.607632
59 -1.301751 -1.153716
60 -1.255319 -1.80257
61 0.711203 -0.299532
62 -0.149278 -0.501192
63 0.021364 -0.299614
64 0.033631 -0.180372
65 2.490032 2.357046
66 -0.228321 0.923604
67 -0.991421 -0.299234
68 0.285341 0.274161
69 -0.378764 -0.243919
70 -0.617278 -0.712268
71 -0.83006 -1.205192
72 0.629789 -0.047834
73 -0.694041 -0.853482
74 -1.129298 -1.587927
75 0.609537 -0.276153
76 -1.235997 -1.551211
77 0.147818 -0.69083
78 0.14224 -0.370905
79 0.786836 0.498754
80 -2.057205 -1.865444
81 0.049553 -0.844816
82 -1.406632 -2.007915
83 1.563741 0.439527
84 1.180332 1.175253
85 -0.665107 -0.078497
86 0.574945 0.653019
87 -0.041159 0.300965
88 -0.896196 -0.677288
89 1.50336 1.208497
90 -0.711564 -0.166288
91 0.983318 1.009229
92 -0.837585 -0.327788
93 -1.91601 -1.977945
94 0.10152 -0.89984
95 0.943755 0.293564
96 0.857394 0.874138
97 0.608171 1.048589
98 -0.235274 0.377104
99 0.789706 1.100733
100 -1.056115 -0.443543
101 0.225869 0.126612
102 0.575202 0.618657
103 1.051358 1.369378
104 0.01315 0.761442
105 1.424385 1.954765
=NORMSINV(RAND())
Lag ACF ACF (pop) φ1 0.7
1 #NAME? 0.3553719 θ1 -0.2 ACF for ARMA(1,1) Proces
2 #NAME? 0.2487603
0.4
3 #NAME? 0.1741322
0.35
4 #NAME? 0.1218926
0.3
5 #NAME? 0.0853248
0.25
6 #NAME? 0.0597274
0.2
7 #NAME? 0.0418091
0.15
8 #NAME? 0.0292664
0.1
9 #NAME? 0.0204865
0.05
10 #NAME? 0.0143405
0
1 86 91 96 101 11 #NAME? 0.0100384 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.05
12 #NAME? 0.0070269
-0.1
13 #NAME? 0.0049188
14 #NAME? 0.0034432 ACF (actual) ACF (theoretic
15 #NAME? 0.0024102
for ARMA(1,1) Process
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
yi = 3 + .7yi-1 + εi - .2εi-1
Residual Y
1 0.117676 3.117676
2 0.649413 5.808251 ARMA(1,1) Process
3 -2.029125 4.906769 14
4 -0.721088 6.119474
13
5 0.707476 8.135326
6 0.791634 9.344867 12
7 -0.23543 9.147651
8 -1.348948 8.101493 11
9 1.205584 10.14642 10
10 1.18382 11.0452
11 -0.372295 10.12258 9
12 0.013339 10.1736 8
13 0.702456 10.82131
14 -0.350362 10.08406 7
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
15 0.217137 10.34605
16 -0.506607 9.692203
17 1.319711 11.20557
18 2.072156 12.65212
19 1.964279 13.40633
20 0.239643 12.23122
21 0.603051 12.11697
22 -0.901383 10.45989
23 -1.055741 9.446458
24 1.357362 11.18103
25 -2.969889 7.58536
26 2.074802 10.97853
27 0.280213 10.55023
28 0.898346 11.22746
29 -1.603382 9.076171
30 0.235499 9.909496
31 1.794088 11.68364
32 -1.430609 9.389118
33 1.422463 11.28097
34 -1.534485 9.0777
35 -0.239435 9.421852
36 1.125487 10.76867
37 -0.268286 10.04469
38 -0.58229 9.502648
39 2.248324 12.01664
40 -1.354397 9.607582
41 0.482612 10.4788
42 -0.107491 10.13115
43 -0.803047 9.310253
44 0.275451 9.953237
45 0.019907 9.932083
46 1.686625 11.6351
47 -0.379004 10.42824
48 -0.68134 9.694231
49 0.246807 10.16904
50 0.417691 10.48666
51 0.399029 10.65615
52 -0.250181 10.12932
53 -1.174253 8.966306
54 -1.404513 8.106751
55 -0.28173 8.673899
56 -0.388213 8.739862
57 -0.43157 8.763976
58 1.386535 10.60763
59 -1.301751 8.846284
60 -1.255319 8.19743
61 0.711203 9.700468
62 -0.149278 9.498808
63 0.021364 9.700386
64 0.033631 9.819628
65 2.490032 12.35705
66 -0.228321 10.9236
67 -0.991421 9.700766
68 0.285341 10.27416
69 -0.378764 9.756081
70 -0.617278 9.287732
71 -0.83006 8.794808
72 0.629789 9.952166
73 -0.694041 9.146518
74 -1.129298 8.412073
75 0.609537 9.723847
76 -1.235997 8.448789
77 0.147818 9.30917
78 0.14224 9.629095
79 0.786836 10.49875
80 -2.057205 8.134556
81 0.049553 9.155184
82 -1.406632 7.992085
83 1.563741 10.43953
84 1.180332 11.17525
85 -0.665107 9.921503
86 0.574945 10.65302
87 -0.041159 10.30097
88 -0.896196 9.322712
89 1.50336 11.2085
90 -0.711564 9.833712
91 0.983318 11.00923
92 -0.837585 9.672212
93 -1.91601 8.022055
94 0.10152 9.10016
95 0.943755 10.29356
96 0.857394 10.87414
97 0.608171 11.04859
98 -0.235274 10.3771
99 0.789706 11.10073
100 -1.056115 9.556457
101 0.225869 10.12661
102 0.575202 10.61866
103 1.051358 11.36938
104 0.01315 10.76144
105 1.424385 11.95477
=NORMSINV(RAND())
Lag ACF ACF (pop) φ1 0.7
1 #NAME? 0.3553719 θ1 -0.2 ACF for ARMA(1,1) Proces
2 #NAME? 0.2487603
0.4
3 #NAME? 0.1741322
0.35
4 #NAME? 0.1218926
0.3
5 #NAME? 0.0853248
0.25
6 #NAME? 0.0597274
0.2
7 #NAME? 0.0418091
0.15
8 #NAME? 0.0292664
0.1
9 #NAME? 0.0204865
0.05
10 #NAME? 0.0143405
0
11 #NAME? 0.0100384 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.05
12 #NAME? 0.0070269
-0.1
13 #NAME? 0.0049188
14 #NAME? 0.0034432 ACF (actual) ACF (theoretic
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
yi = .7yi-1 + εi - .2εi-1
=NORMSINV(RAND())
Model parameters
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
ARMA(1,1) Process
yi = .7yi-1 + εi - .2εi-1
=NORMSINV(RAND())
Phi roots Model parameters
time forecast
1 3.117676
2 5.808251
3 4.906769
4 6.119474
5 8.135326
6 9.344867
7 9.147651
8 8.101493
9 10.14642
10 11.0452
11 10.12258
12 10.1736
13 10.82131
14 10.08406
15 10.34605
16 9.692203
17 11.20557
18 12.65212
19 13.40633
20 12.23122
21 12.11697
22 10.45989
23 9.446458
24 11.18103
25 7.58536
26 10.97853
27 10.55023
28 11.22746
29 9.076171
30 9.909496
31 11.68364
32 9.389118
33 11.28097
34 9.0777
35 9.421852
36 10.76867
37 10.04469
38 9.502648
39 12.01664
40 9.607582
41 10.4788
42 10.13115
43 9.310253
44 9.953237
45 9.932083
46 11.6351
47 10.42824
48 9.694231
49 10.16904
50 10.48666
51 10.65615
52 10.12932
53 8.966306
54 8.106751
55 8.673899
56 8.739862
57 8.763976
58 10.60763
59 8.846284
60 8.19743
61 9.700468
62 9.498808
63 9.700386
64 9.819628
65 12.35705
66 10.9236
67 9.700766
68 10.27416
69 9.756081
70 9.287732
71 8.794808
72 9.952166
73 9.146518
74 8.412073
75 9.723847
76 8.448789
77 9.30917
78 9.629095
79 10.49875
80 8.134556
81 9.155184
82 7.992085
83 10.43953
84 11.17525
85 9.921503
86 10.65302
87 10.30097
88 9.322712
89 11.2085
90 9.833712
91 11.00923
92 9.672212
93 8.022055
94 9.10016
95 10.29356
96 10.87414
97 11.04859
98 10.3771
99 11.10073
100 9.556457
101 10.12661
102 10.61866
103 11.36938
104 10.76144
105 11.95477
106 #NAME?
107 #NAME?
108 #NAME?
109 #NAME?
110 #NAME?
ARMA(1,1) Process
=NORMSINV(RAND())
Phi roots Model parameters
=NORMSINV(RAND())
Phi roots Model parameters
time forecast
1 0.117676
2 0.708251
3 -1.663231
4 -1.479526
5 -0.183974
6 0.521357
7 -0.028806
8 -1.322027
9 0.549955
10 1.327672
11 0.320311
12 0.312015
13 0.918199
14 0.151886
15 0.39353
16 -0.274564
17 1.228838
18 2.668401
19 3.417728
20 2.239197
21 2.12256
22 0.463799
23 -0.550805
24 1.182946
25 -2.413299
26 0.979471
27 0.550882
28 1.227921
29 -0.923507
30 -0.090279
31 1.683793
32 -0.610771
33 1.281045
34 -0.922246
35 -0.57811
36 0.768697
37 0.044705
38 -0.497339
39 2.016644
40 -0.392411
41 0.478803
42 0.131149
43 -0.689745
44 -0.046761
45 -0.067916
46 1.635103
47 0.428243
48 -0.305769
49 0.169037
50 0.486656
51 0.65615
52 0.129318
53 -1.033694
54 -1.893249
55 -1.326101
56 -1.260138
57 -1.236024
58 0.607632
59 -1.153716
60 -1.80257
61 -0.299532
62 -0.501192
63 -0.299614
64 -0.180372
65 2.357046
66 0.923604
67 -0.299234
68 0.274161
69 -0.243919
70 -0.712268
71 -1.205192
72 -0.047834
73 -0.853482
74 -1.587927
75 -0.276153
76 -1.551211
77 -0.69083
78 -0.370905
79 0.498754
80 -1.865444
81 -0.844816
82 -2.007915
83 0.439527
84 1.175253
85 -0.078497
86 0.653019
87 0.300965
88 -0.677288
89 1.208497
90 -0.166288
91 1.009229
92 -0.327788
93 -1.977945
94 -0.89984
95 0.293564
96 0.874138
97 1.048589
98 0.377104
99 1.100733
100 -0.443543
101 0.126612
102 0.618657
103 1.369378
104 0.761442
105 1.954765
106 #NAME?
107 #NAME?
108 #NAME?
109 #NAME?
110 #NAME?
Converting ARMA(1,1) process to MA(∞)
φ1 0.4
θ1 -0.2
ψ0 #NAME? #NAME?
ψ1 #NAME?
ψ2 #NAME?
ψ3 #NAME?
ψ4 #NAME?
ARMA(2,1) Process ARIMA Model Model statistics
Y 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
3.117676 2.690575 -3.592058 5.706246 -7.017289 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
5.808251 -0.901482 2.114188 -1.311042 -0.298414 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
4.906769 1.212706 0.803146 -1.609457 1.00901 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
6.119474 2.015852 -0.806311 -0.600447 1.158264 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8.135326 1.209541 -1.406758 0.557817 3.382207 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
9.344867 -0.197217 -0.848941 3.940024 -8.177255 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
9.147651 -1.046157 3.091083 -4.237232 3.561984 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
8.101493 2.044926 -1.146148 -0.675247 3.470285 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
10.14642 0.898777 -1.821396 2.795038 -3.171997 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
11.0452 -0.922618 0.973642 -0.376959 -1.604678 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
10.12258 0.051024 0.596683 -1.981637 4.365829 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
10.1736 0.647708 -1.384954 2.384191 -4.299271 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
10.82131 -0.737247 0.999237 -1.915079 4.998144 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
10.08406 0.261991 -0.915842 3.083065 -5.317118 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
10.34605 -0.653851 2.167223 -2.234053 1.608554 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
9.692203 1.513372 -0.06683 -0.625499 -0.611496 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
11.20557 1.446542 -0.692329 -1.236995 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
12.65212 0.754213 -1.929324 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
13.40633 -1.175111 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
12.23122
ARMA(2,1,1) Process ARIMA Model Model statistics
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Forecast (reduced) Forecast
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper time
1 2.690575 0 2.690575 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1
2 -0.901482 0 -0.901482 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2
3 1.212706 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3
4 2.015852 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 4
5 1.209541 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 5
6 -0.197217 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 6
7 -1.046157 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 7
8 2.044926 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 8
9 0.898777 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 9
10 -0.922618 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 10
11 0.051024 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 11
12 0.647708 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 12
13 -0.737247 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 13
14 0.261991 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14
15 -0.653851 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 15
16 1.513372 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 16
17 1.446542 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 17
18 0.754213 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 18
19 -1.175111 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 19
20 -0.114243 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 20
21 -1.657086 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 21
22 -1.013431 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 22
23 1.734573 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 23
24 -3.59567 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 24
25 3.393172 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 25
26 -0.428307 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 26
27 0.677236 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 27
28 -2.15129 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 28
29 0.833324 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 29
30 1.77414 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 30
31 -2.294517 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 31
32 1.891849 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 32
33 -2.203267 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 33
34 0.344152 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 34
35 1.346819 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 35
36 -0.723984 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 36
37 -0.542039 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 37
38 2.513988 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 38
39 -2.409053 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 39
40 0.871216 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 40
41 -0.347653 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 41
42 -0.820893 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 42
43 0.642984 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 43
44 -0.021154 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 44
45 1.703019 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 45
46 -1.206859 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 46
47 -0.734012 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 47
48 0.474806 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 48
49 0.317619 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 49
50 0.169494 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 50
51 -0.526832 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 51
52 -1.163012 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 52
53 -0.859554 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 53
54 0.567147 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 54
55 0.065963 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 55
56 0.024114 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 56
57 1.843656 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 57
58 -1.761348 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 58
59 -0.648854 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 59
60 1.503037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 60
61 -0.201659 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 61
62 0.201577 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 62
63 0.119242 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 63
64 2.537418 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 64
65 -1.433441 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 65
66 -1.222839 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 66
67 0.573395 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 67
68 -0.51808 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 68
69 -0.468349 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 69
70 -0.492924 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 70
71 1.157358 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 71
72 -0.805648 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 72
73 -0.734445 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 73
74 1.311775 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 74
75 -1.275059 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 75
76 0.860381 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 76
77 0.319925 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 77
78 0.869659 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 78
79 -2.364198 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 79
80 1.020628 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 80
81 -1.163098 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 81
82 2.447442 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 82
83 0.735726 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 83
84 -1.253749 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 84
85 0.731515 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 85
86 -0.352054 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 86
87 -0.978253 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 87
88 1.885785 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 88
89 -1.374785 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 89
90 1.175517 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 90
91 -1.337017 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 91
92 -1.650156 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 92
93 1.078105 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 93
94 1.193403 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 94
95 0.580574 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 95
96 0.174451 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 96
97 -0.671485 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 97
98 0.72363 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 98
99 -1.544277 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 99
100 0.570155 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 100
101 0.492045 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 101
102 0.750721 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 102
103 -0.607935 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 103
104 1.193323 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 104
105 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 105
106 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 106
107 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 107
108 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 108
109 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 109
110
forecast
3.117676
5.808251
4.906769
6.119474
8.135326
9.344867
9.147651
8.101493
10.14642
11.0452
10.12258
10.1736
10.82131
10.08406
10.34605
9.692203
11.20557
12.65212
13.40633
12.23122
12.11697
10.45989
9.446458
11.18103
7.58536
10.97853
10.55023
11.22746
9.076171
9.909496
11.68364
9.389118
11.28097
9.0777
9.421852
10.76867
10.04469
9.502648
12.01664
9.607582
10.4788
10.13115
9.310253
9.953237
9.932083
11.6351
10.42824
9.694231
10.16904
10.48666
10.65615
10.12932
8.966306
8.106751
8.673899
8.739862
8.763976
10.60763
8.846284
8.19743
9.700468
9.498808
9.700386
9.819628
12.35705
10.9236
9.700766
10.27416
9.756081
9.287732
8.794808
9.952166
9.146518
8.412073
9.723847
8.448789
9.30917
9.629095
10.49875
8.134556
9.155184
7.992085
10.43953
11.17525
9.921503
10.65302
10.30097
9.322712
11.2085
9.833712
11.00923
9.672212
8.022055
9.10016
10.29356
10.87414
11.04859
10.3771
11.10073
9.556457
10.12661
10.61866
11.36938
10.76144
11.95477
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
ARMA(2,1,1) Process ARIMA Model Model statistics (Solver)
Theta roots
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Forecast (reduced) Forecast
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper time
1 2.690575 0 2.690575 1.100281 0.534063 4.847087 1
2 -0.901482 0 -0.901482 1.100281 -3.057994 1.25503 2
3 1.212706 -0.007263 1.219969 1.100281 -0.936543 3.376481 3
4 2.015852 2.063353 -0.047501 1.100281 -2.204013 2.109011 4
5 1.209541 1.96964 -0.760099 1.100281 -2.916611 1.396413 5
6 -0.197217 0.304976 -0.502192 1.100281 -2.658704 1.65432 6
7 -1.046157 -1.342783 0.296626 1.100281 -1.859886 2.453138 7
8 2.044926 1.101798 0.943127 1.100281 -1.213385 3.099639 8
9 0.898777 1.917043 -1.018265 1.100281 -3.174777 1.138247 9
10 -0.922618 -0.374162 -0.548456 1.100281 -2.704968 1.608056 10
11 0.051024 -0.523335 0.574359 1.100281 -1.582153 2.730871 11
12 0.647708 0.595572 0.052136 1.100281 -2.104376 2.208648 12
13 -0.737247 -0.368946 -0.368301 1.100281 -2.524813 1.788211 13
14 0.261991 -0.232124 0.494115 1.100281 -1.662397 2.650627 14
15 -0.653851 -0.578472 -0.075379 1.100281 -2.231891 2.081133 15
16 1.513372 0.98348 0.529892 1.100281 -1.62662 2.686404 16
17 1.446542 2.31316 -0.866619 1.100281 -3.023131 1.289893 17
18 0.754213 1.832162 -1.077949 1.100281 -3.234461 1.078563 18
19 -1.175111 -0.314004 -0.861108 1.100281 -3.01762 1.295404 19
20 -0.114243 -0.440701 0.326457 1.100281 -1.830055 2.482969 20
21 -1.657086 -1.407689 -0.249397 1.100281 -2.405909 1.907115 21
22 -1.013431 -1.838699 0.825267 1.100281 -1.331245 2.981779 22
23 1.734573 1.08975 0.644823 1.100281 -1.511689 2.801335 23
24 -3.59567 -2.48922 -1.10645 1.100281 -3.262962 1.050062 24
25 3.393172 1.062189 2.330983 1.100281 0.174471 4.487495 25
26 -0.428307 1.511098 -1.939404 1.100281 -4.095916 0.217108 26
27 0.677236 0.51138 0.165856 1.100281 -1.990656 2.322368 27
28 -2.15129 -1.606592 -0.544698 1.100281 -2.70121 1.611814 28
29 0.833324 -0.478833 1.312157 1.100281 -0.844355 3.468669 29
30 1.77414 2.183831 -0.409691 1.100281 -2.566203 1.746821 30
31 -2.294517 -1.087933 -1.206584 1.100281 -3.363096 0.949928 31
32 1.891849 0.560822 1.331028 1.100281 -0.825484 3.48754 32
33 -2.203267 -0.987138 -1.216129 1.100281 -3.372641 0.940383 33
34 0.344152 -0.981054 1.325206 1.100281 -0.831306 3.481718 34
35 1.346819 1.429039 -0.082221 1.100281 -2.238733 2.074291 35
36 -0.723984 0.110811 -0.834796 1.100281 -2.991308 1.321716 36
37 -0.542039 -0.926077 0.384038 1.100281 -1.772474 2.54055 37
38 2.513988 2.136944 0.377044 1.100281 -1.779468 2.533556 38
39 -2.409053 -0.738233 -1.67082 1.100281 -3.827332 0.485692 39
40 0.871216 -0.465722 1.336939 1.100281 -0.819573 3.493451 40
41 -0.347653 0.212016 -0.559669 1.100281 -2.716181 1.596843 41
42 -0.820893 -0.963122 0.142229 1.100281 -2.014283 2.298741 42
43 0.642984 0.114184 0.528801 1.100281 -1.627711 2.685313 43
44 -0.021154 0.332797 -0.353951 1.100281 -2.510463 1.802561 44
45 1.703019 1.698958 0.004061 1.100281 -2.152451 2.160573 45
46 -1.206859 -0.002837 -1.204022 1.100281 -3.360534 0.95249 46
47 -0.734012 -1.262427 0.528415 1.100281 -1.628097 2.684927 47
48 0.474806 0.08723 0.387576 1.100281 -1.768936 2.544088 48
49 0.317619 0.656746 -0.339127 1.100281 -2.495639 1.817385 49
50 0.169494 0.485324 -0.31583 1.100281 -2.472342 1.840682 50
51 -0.526832 -0.248731 -0.278101 1.100281 -2.434613 1.878411 51
52 -1.163012 -1.328692 0.16568 1.100281 -1.990832 2.322192 52
53 -0.859554 -1.549674 0.690119 1.100281 -1.466393 2.846631 53
54 0.567147 -0.110497 0.677644 1.100281 -1.478868 2.834156 54
55 0.065963 0.226916 -0.160952 1.100281 -2.317464 1.99556 55
56 0.024114 -0.08495 0.109064 1.100281 -2.047448 2.265576 56
57 1.843656 1.703191 0.140465 1.100281 -2.016047 2.296977 57
58 -1.761348 -0.633687 -1.127661 1.100281 -3.284173 1.028851 58
59 -0.648854 -1.732022 1.083168 1.100281 -1.073343 3.23968 59
60 1.503037 0.893902 0.609135 1.100281 -1.547377 2.765647 60
61 -0.201659 0.568383 -0.770042 1.100281 -2.926554 1.38647 61
62 0.201577 0.022647 0.17893 1.100281 -1.977582 2.335442 62
63 0.119242 0.183377 -0.064135 1.100281 -2.220647 2.092377 63
64 2.537418 2.573491 -0.036073 1.100281 -2.192585 2.120439 64
65 -1.433441 0.318468 -1.751909 1.100281 -3.908421 0.404603 65
66 -1.222839 -1.799815 0.576977 1.100281 -1.579535 2.733489 66
67 0.573395 -0.078262 0.651657 1.100281 -1.504855 2.808169 67
68 -0.51808 -0.112457 -0.405624 1.100281 -2.562136 1.750888 68
69 -0.468349 -0.724484 0.256135 1.100281 -1.900377 2.412646 69
70 -0.492924 -0.798882 0.305958 1.100281 -1.850554 2.46247 70
71 1.157358 0.750801 0.406557 1.100281 -1.749955 2.563069 71
72 -0.805648 -0.148486 -0.657162 1.100281 -2.813674 1.49935 72
73 -0.734445 -1.258985 0.52454 1.100281 -1.631972 2.681052 73
74 1.311775 0.694045 0.61773 1.100281 -1.538782 2.774242 74
75 -1.275059 -0.598784 -0.676274 1.100281 -2.832786 1.480238 75
76 0.860381 -0.063099 0.92348 1.100281 -1.233032 3.079992 76
77 0.319925 0.661198 -0.341273 1.100281 -2.497785 1.815239 77
78 0.869659 0.964497 -0.094838 1.100281 -2.25135 2.061674 78
79 -2.364198 -1.836642 -0.527556 1.100281 -2.684068 1.628956 79
80 1.020628 -0.57202 1.592647 1.100281 -0.563865 3.749159 80
81 -1.163098 -0.80347 -0.359629 1.100281 -2.516141 1.796883 81
82 2.447442 1.427206 1.020236 1.100281 -1.136276 3.176748 82
83 0.735726 2.020848 -1.285122 1.100281 -3.441634 0.87139 83
84 -1.253749 -0.763683 -0.490066 1.100281 -2.646578 1.666446 84
85 0.731515 -0.043949 0.775465 1.100281 -1.381047 2.931977 85
86 -0.352054 0.047666 -0.39972 1.100281 -2.556232 1.756792 86
87 -0.978253 -1.216468 0.238214 1.100281 -1.918298 2.394726 87
88 1.885785 1.144374 0.741412 1.100281 -1.4151 2.897924 88
89 -1.374785 -0.287969 -1.086816 1.100281 -3.243328 1.069696 89
90 1.175517 0.294735 0.880782 1.100281 -1.27573 3.037294 90
91 -1.337017 -0.669672 -0.667346 1.100281 -2.823858 1.489166 91
92 -1.650156 -2.547392 0.897236 1.100281 -1.259276 3.053748 92
93 1.078105 -0.279124 1.35723 1.100281 -0.799282 3.513742 93
94 1.193403 1.433499 -0.240096 1.100281 -2.396608 1.916416 94
95 0.580574 1.051553 -0.470978 1.100281 -2.62749 1.685534 95
96 0.174451 0.399485 -0.225034 1.100281 -2.381546 1.931478 96
97 -0.671485 -0.642316 -0.02917 1.100281 -2.185682 2.127342 97
98 0.72363 0.182041 0.541589 1.100281 -1.614923 2.698101 98
99 -1.544277 -1.234796 -0.309481 1.100281 -2.465993 1.847031 99
100 0.570155 -0.599203 1.169358 1.100281 -0.987154 3.32587 100
101 0.492045 0.518456 -0.026411 1.100281 -2.182923 2.130101 101
102 0.750721 0.792463 -0.041742 1.100281 -2.198254 2.11477 102
103 -0.607935 -0.322226 -0.285709 1.100281 -2.442221 1.870803 103
104 1.193323 0.639875 0.553447 1.100281 -1.603065 2.709959 104
105 -0.589361 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 105
106 0.467541 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 106
107 -0.162442 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 107
108 0.209746 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 108
109 -0.013392 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 109
110
forecast
3.117676
5.808251
4.906769
6.119474
8.135326
9.344867
9.147651
8.101493
10.14642
11.0452
10.12258
10.1736
10.82131
10.08406
10.34605
9.692203
11.20557
12.65212
13.40633
12.23122
12.11697
10.45989
9.446458
11.18103
7.58536
10.97853
10.55023
11.22746
9.076171
9.909496
11.68364
9.389118
11.28097
9.0777
9.421852
10.76867
10.04469
9.502648
12.01664
9.607582
10.4788
10.13115
9.310253
9.953237
9.932083
11.6351
10.42824
9.694231
10.16904
10.48666
10.65615
10.12932
8.966306
8.106751
8.673899
8.739862
8.763976
10.60763
8.846284
8.19743
9.700468
9.498808
9.700386
9.819628
12.35705
10.9236
9.700766
10.27416
9.756081
9.287732
8.794808
9.952166
9.146518
8.412073
9.723847
8.448789
9.30917
9.629095
10.49875
8.134556
9.155184
7.992085
10.43953
11.17525
9.921503
10.65302
10.30097
9.322712
11.2085
9.833712
11.00923
9.672212
8.022055
9.10016
10.29356
10.87414
11.04859
10.3771
11.10073
9.556457
10.12661
10.61866
11.36938
10.76144
11.95477
11.3654
11.83294
11.6705
11.88025
11.86686
ARMA(2,1,1) Process ARIMA Model Model statistics
Theta roots
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Forecast (reduced) Forecast
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper time
1 2.644626 0 2.644626 1.10625 0.476415 4.812837 1
2 -0.947432 0 -0.947432 1.10625 -3.115643 1.220779 2
3 1.166757 0.060883 1.105874 1.10625 -1.062337 3.274085 3
4 1.969903 2.108419 -0.138517 1.10625 -2.306728 2.029694 4
5 1.163592 1.994024 -0.830432 1.10625 -2.998643 1.337779 5
6 -0.243166 0.331594 -0.57476 1.10625 -2.742971 1.593451 6
7 -1.092107 -1.292626 0.200519 1.10625 -1.967692 2.36873 7
8 1.998977 1.181391 0.817585 1.10625 -1.350626 2.985796 8
9 0.852828 1.943 -1.090171 1.10625 -3.258382 1.07804 9
10 -0.968567 -0.343284 -0.625283 1.10625 -2.793494 1.542928 10
11 0.005075 -0.459242 0.464317 1.10625 -1.703894 2.632528 11
12 0.601758 0.650137 -0.048378 1.10625 -2.216589 2.119833 12
13 -0.783196 -0.327051 -0.456145 1.10625 -2.624356 1.712066 13
14 0.216042 -0.16318 0.379221 1.10625 -1.78899 2.547432 14
15 -0.6998 -0.52123 -0.17857 1.10625 -2.346781 1.989641 15
16 1.467423 1.063687 0.403736 1.10625 -1.764475 2.571947 16
17 1.400592 2.353611 -0.953019 1.10625 -3.12123 1.215192 17
18 0.708264 1.85456 -1.146296 1.10625 -3.314507 1.021915 18
19 -1.22106 -0.29995 -0.921111 1.10625 -3.089322 1.2471 19
20 -0.160193 -0.399172 0.23898 1.10625 -1.929231 2.407191 20
21 -1.703035 -1.385269 -0.317766 1.10625 -2.485977 1.850445 21
22 -1.05938 -1.783867 0.724487 1.10625 -1.443724 2.892698 22
23 1.688624 1.148569 0.540055 1.10625 -1.628156 2.708266 23
24 -3.641619 -2.483702 -1.157917 1.10625 -3.326128 1.010294 24
25 3.347222 1.175388 2.171834 1.10625 0.003623 4.340045 25
26 -0.474256 1.506031 -1.980287 1.10625 -4.148498 0.187924 26
27 0.631287 0.555731 0.075556 1.10625 -2.092655 2.243767 27
28 -2.197239 -1.585932 -0.611307 1.10625 -2.779518 1.556904 28
29 0.787375 -0.400017 1.187392 1.10625 -0.980819 3.355603 29
30 1.728191 2.220124 -0.491934 1.10625 -2.660145 1.676277 30
31 -2.340467 -1.084963 -1.255503 1.10625 -3.423714 0.912708 31
32 1.8459 0.636926 1.208974 1.10625 -0.959237 3.377185 32
33 -2.249216 -0.983838 -1.265379 1.10625 -3.43359 0.902832 33
34 0.298203 -0.904128 1.202331 1.10625 -0.96588 3.370542 34
35 1.300869 1.474715 -0.173845 1.10625 -2.342056 1.994366 35
36 -0.769934 0.129814 -0.899747 1.10625 -3.067958 1.268464 36
37 -0.587988 -0.874957 0.286969 1.10625 -1.881242 2.45518 37
38 2.468038 2.193344 0.274694 1.10625 -1.893516 2.442905 38
39 -2.455002 -0.749315 -1.705686 1.10625 -3.873897 0.462524 39
40 0.825267 -0.393672 1.218939 1.10625 -0.949272 3.38715 40
41 -0.393602 0.23412 -0.627722 1.10625 -2.795933 1.540489 41
42 -0.866842 -0.923958 0.057116 1.10625 -2.111095 2.225327 42
43 0.597035 0.168861 0.428175 1.10625 -1.740036 2.596386 43
44 -0.067104 0.363816 -0.430919 1.10625 -2.59913 1.737291 44
45 1.65707 1.73833 -0.081261 1.10625 -2.249472 2.08695 45
46 -1.252808 -0.00692 -1.245888 1.10625 -3.414099 0.922323 46
47 -0.779961 -1.223226 0.443265 1.10625 -1.724946 2.611476 47
48 0.428857 0.126829 0.302028 1.10625 -1.866183 2.470239 48
49 0.27167 0.674859 -0.403189 1.10625 -2.5714 1.765022 49
50 0.123545 0.498372 -0.374828 1.10625 -2.543039 1.793383 50
51 -0.572781 -0.240798 -0.331983 1.10625 -2.500194 1.836228 51
52 -1.208961 -1.311436 0.102475 1.10625 -2.065736 2.270685 52
53 -0.905504 -1.513713 0.60821 1.10625 -1.560001 2.776421 53
54 0.521198 -0.066255 0.587454 1.10625 -1.580757 2.755665 54
55 0.020014 0.251229 -0.231215 1.10625 -2.399426 1.936996 55
56 -0.021835 -0.052358 0.030523 1.10625 -2.137688 2.198733 56
57 1.797707 1.739196 0.058511 1.10625 -2.1097 2.226722 57
58 -1.807297 -0.640579 -1.166718 1.10625 -3.334929 1.001493 58
59 -0.694803 -1.676351 0.981548 1.10625 -1.186663 3.149759 59
60 1.457088 0.94774 0.509348 1.10625 -1.658863 2.677559 60
61 -0.247609 0.58295 -0.830558 1.10625 -2.998769 1.337653 61
62 0.155628 0.061283 0.094345 1.10625 -2.073866 2.262556 62
63 0.073293 0.216119 -0.142826 1.10625 -2.311037 2.025384 63
64 2.491468 2.606647 -0.115179 1.10625 -2.28339 2.053032 64
65 -1.47939 0.289212 -1.768602 1.10625 -3.936813 0.399609 65
66 -1.268788 -1.77323 0.504442 1.10625 -1.663769 2.672653 66
67 0.527446 -0.044364 0.571811 1.10625 -1.5964 2.740021 67
68 -0.564029 -0.109236 -0.454794 1.10625 -2.623005 1.713417 68
69 -0.514298 -0.705141 0.190842 1.10625 -1.977369 2.359053 69
70 -0.538873 -0.775991 0.237117 1.10625 -1.931093 2.405328 70
71 1.111409 0.780542 0.330867 1.10625 -1.837344 2.499078 71
72 -0.851597 -0.151614 -0.699984 1.10625 -2.868195 1.468227 72
73 -0.780394 -1.230081 0.449687 1.10625 -1.718524 2.617898 73
74 1.265825 0.732835 0.532991 1.10625 -1.63522 2.701201 74
75 -1.321008 -0.597402 -0.723605 1.10625 -2.891816 1.444606 75
76 0.814432 -0.013964 0.828395 1.10625 -1.339815 2.996606 76
77 0.273976 0.678428 -0.404451 1.10625 -2.572662 1.76376 77
78 0.82371 0.986351 -0.162641 1.10625 -2.330852 2.00557 78
79 -2.410148 -1.831853 -0.578295 1.10625 -2.746506 1.589916 79
80 0.974678 -0.499408 1.474086 1.10625 -0.694125 3.642297 80
81 -1.209047 -0.777419 -0.431629 1.10625 -2.599839 1.736582 81
82 2.401492 1.499798 0.901694 1.10625 -1.266517 3.069905 82
83 0.689777 2.027932 -1.338156 1.10625 -3.506367 0.830055 83
84 -1.299698 -0.744765 -0.554933 1.10625 -2.723144 1.613278 84
85 0.685566 0.012992 0.672574 1.10625 -1.495637 2.840785 85
86 -0.398003 0.07357 -0.471573 1.10625 -2.639784 1.696638 86
87 -1.024203 -1.172959 0.148757 1.10625 -2.019454 2.316968 87
88 1.839836 1.20982 0.630016 1.10625 -1.538195 2.798227 88
89 -1.420734 -0.276057 -1.144677 1.10625 -3.312888 1.023534 89
90 1.129567 0.362687 0.766881 1.10625 -1.40133 2.935092 90
91 -1.382966 -0.643921 -0.739046 1.10625 -2.907256 1.429165 91
92 -1.696106 -2.473959 0.777853 1.10625 -1.390358 2.946064 92
93 1.032156 -0.17442 1.206576 1.10625 -0.961635 3.374787 93
94 1.147454 1.505066 -0.357612 1.10625 -2.525823 1.810599 94
95 0.534625 1.117138 -0.582513 1.10625 -2.750724 1.585698 95
96 0.128502 0.471784 -0.343283 1.10625 -2.511494 1.824928 96
97 -0.717435 -0.562442 -0.154993 1.10625 -2.323204 2.013218 97
98 0.677681 0.285687 0.391993 1.10625 -1.776217 2.560204 98
99 -1.590226 -1.14946 -0.440766 1.10625 -2.608977 1.727445 99
100 0.524206 -0.460097 0.984304 1.10625 -1.183907 3.152515 100
101 0.446096 0.637925 -0.19183 1.10625 -2.360041 1.976381 101
102 0.704772 0.918988 -0.214217 1.10625 -2.382427 1.953994 102
103 -0.653885 -0.197098 -0.456787 1.10625 -2.624998 1.711424 103
104 1.147374 0.798908 0.348466 1.10625 -1.819745 2.516677 104
105 -0.769714 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 105
106 0.339924 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 106
107 -0.296838 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 107
108 0.073879 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 108
109 -0.136784 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 109
110
forecast
3.117676
5.808251
4.906769
6.119474
8.135326
9.344867
9.147651
8.101493
10.14642
11.0452
10.12258
10.1736
10.82131
10.08406
10.34605
9.692203
11.20557
12.65212
13.40633
12.23122
12.11697
10.45989
9.446458
11.18103
7.58536
10.97853
10.55023
11.22746
9.076171
9.909496
11.68364
9.389118
11.28097
9.0777
9.421852
10.76867
10.04469
9.502648
12.01664
9.607582
10.4788
10.13115
9.310253
9.953237
9.932083
11.6351
10.42824
9.694231
10.16904
10.48666
10.65615
10.12932
8.966306
8.106751
8.673899
8.739862
8.763976
10.60763
8.846284
8.19743
9.700468
9.498808
9.700386
9.819628
12.35705
10.9236
9.700766
10.27416
9.756081
9.287732
8.794808
9.952166
9.146518
8.412073
9.723847
8.448789
9.30917
9.629095
10.49875
8.134556
9.155184
7.992085
10.43953
11.17525
9.921503
10.65302
10.30097
9.322712
11.2085
9.833712
11.00923
9.672212
8.022055
9.10016
10.29356
10.87414
11.04859
10.3771
11.10073
9.556457
10.12661
10.61866
11.36938
10.76144
11.95477
11.231
11.61687
11.36599
11.48581
11.39498
ARMA(2,1,2) Process ARIMA Model Model statistics
Theta roots
Psi coefficients
index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
Forecast (reduced) Forecast
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper time
1 -3.587094 0 -3.587094 1.181476 -5.902745 -1.271442 1
2 2.119153 0 2.119153 1.181476 -0.196499 4.434804 2
3 0.80811 1.373316 -0.565206 1.181476 -2.880858 1.750445 3
4 -0.801347 1.208706 -2.010053 1.181476 -4.325704 0.305599 4
5 -1.401794 -0.57428 -0.827513 1.181476 -3.143165 1.488138 5
6 -0.843977 -2.223564 1.379587 1.181476 -0.936064 3.695239 6
7 3.096047 0.384288 2.711759 1.181476 0.396108 5.02741 7
8 -1.141184 0.695675 -1.836859 1.181476 -4.15251 0.478792 8
9 -1.816431 -1.301329 -0.515102 1.181476 -2.830753 1.800549 9
10 0.978607 -1.341937 2.320543 1.181476 0.004892 4.636195 10
11 0.601648 -0.407726 1.009373 1.181476 -1.306278 3.325024 11
12 -1.37999 -1.301171 -0.078819 1.181476 -2.39447 2.236833 12
13 1.004202 -0.830591 1.834793 1.181476 -0.480859 4.150444 13
14 -0.910878 -1.367036 0.456158 1.181476 -1.859494 2.771809 14
15 2.172187 0.579356 1.592831 1.181476 -0.72282 3.908483 15
16 -0.061866 1.467184 -1.52905 1.181476 -3.844701 0.786602 16
17 -0.687365 0.966654 -1.654019 1.181476 -3.96967 0.661632 17
18 -1.92436 -1.392025 -0.532335 1.181476 -2.847986 1.783316 18
19 1.065832 -1.327411 2.393243 1.181476 0.077592 4.708895 19
20 -1.537878 -2.504584 0.966707 1.181476 -1.348945 3.282358 20
21 0.648618 -2.316892 2.96551 1.181476 0.649859 5.281161 21
22 2.752968 0.708244 2.044724 1.181476 -0.270927 4.360375 22
23 -5.325279 -3.143324 -2.181955 1.181476 -4.497606 0.133697 23
24 6.993806 1.722009 5.271797 1.181476 2.956146 7.587449 24
25 -3.816514 0.61747 -4.433985 1.181476 -6.749636 -2.118333 25
26 1.110507 0.745572 0.364935 1.181476 -1.950716 2.680587 26
27 -2.823562 -2.122921 -0.700641 1.181476 -3.016293 1.61501 27
28 2.989579 -0.281425 3.271004 1.181476 0.955352 5.586655 28
29 0.94578 1.814507 -0.868727 1.181476 -3.184378 1.446925 29
30 -4.063693 -1.442914 -2.620779 1.181476 -4.93643 -0.305128 30
31 4.191331 0.884445 3.306886 1.181476 0.991234 5.622537 31
32 -4.090152 -1.699734 -2.390418 1.181476 -4.706069 -0.074767 32
33 2.552383 -0.523938 3.076322 1.181476 0.760671 5.391973 33
34 1.007631 1.235934 -0.228304 1.181476 -2.543955 2.087348 34
35 -2.065839 -0.015492 -2.050346 1.181476 -4.365998 0.265305 35
36 0.18691 -0.748802 0.935711 1.181476 -1.37994 3.251363 36
37 3.060991 2.154972 0.906019 1.181476 -1.409632 3.22167 37
38 -4.918076 -1.301159 -3.616917 1.181476 -5.932569 -1.301266 38
39 3.285233 -0.018316 3.303549 1.181476 0.987897 5.6192 39
40 -1.213905 -0.259064 -0.95484 1.181476 -3.270492 1.360811 40
41 -0.468276 -0.849637 0.381361 1.181476 -1.934291 2.697012 41
42 1.468842 0.256155 1.212686 1.181476 -1.102965 3.528337 42
43 -0.659175 0.270772 -0.929947 1.181476 -3.245598 1.385705 43
44 1.729138 1.857385 -0.128247 1.181476 -2.443898 2.187404 44
45 -2.904914 -0.38094 -2.523974 1.181476 -4.839626 -0.208323 45
46 0.477811 -1.125137 1.602948 1.181476 -0.712704 3.918599 46
47 1.213782 -0.015819 1.229601 1.181476 -1.08605 3.545252 47
48 -0.152223 0.533569 -0.685792 1.181476 -3.001443 1.629859 48
49 -0.143161 0.454141 -0.597302 1.181476 -2.912953 1.71835 49
50 -0.691362 -0.366372 -0.32499 1.181476 -2.640641 1.990662 50
51 -0.631216 -1.351356 0.72014 1.181476 -1.595511 3.035792 51
52 0.308422 -1.377084 1.685506 1.181476 -0.630146 4.001157 52
53 1.431666 0.218452 1.213213 1.181476 -1.102438 3.528865 53
54 -0.49622 0.494978 -0.991198 1.181476 -3.306849 1.324453 54
55 -0.036885 0.378606 -0.415491 1.181476 -2.731142 1.90016 55
56 1.824506 2.083259 -0.258752 1.181476 -2.574404 2.056899 56
57 -3.60004 -0.724207 -2.875833 1.181476 -5.191484 -0.560181 57
58 1.117458 -1.150631 2.26809 1.181476 -0.047562 4.583741 58
59 2.156855 1.131839 1.025016 1.181476 -1.290635 3.340667 59
60 -1.699733 0.636359 -2.336091 1.181476 -4.651743 -0.02044 60
61 0.408201 0.438841 -0.030641 1.181476 -2.346292 2.285011 61
62 -0.077371 0.289082 -0.366453 1.181476 -2.682104 1.949199 62
63 2.42314 2.71229 -0.289151 1.181476 -2.604802 2.026501 63
64 -3.965895 -0.201332 -3.764563 1.181476 -6.080214 -1.448911 64
65 0.215567 -1.667451 1.883018 1.181476 -0.432634 4.198669 65
66 1.801198 -0.226016 2.027214 1.181476 -0.288438 4.342865 66
67 -1.086511 -0.330395 -0.756116 1.181476 -3.071768 1.559535 67
68 0.054695 -0.547655 0.602351 1.181476 -1.713301 2.918002 68
69 -0.019611 -0.661636 0.642025 1.181476 -1.673626 2.957676 69
70 1.655247 1.038591 0.616655 1.181476 -1.698996 2.932306 70
71 -1.958042 -0.137847 -1.820196 1.181476 -4.135847 0.495456 71
72 0.076167 -0.820958 0.897125 1.181476 -1.418526 3.212777 72
73 2.051184 1.036748 1.014436 1.181476 -1.301216 3.330087 73
74 -2.581869 -0.543825 -2.038044 1.181476 -4.353695 0.277608 74
75 2.140404 0.60157 1.538834 1.181476 -0.776818 3.854485 75
76 -0.535491 0.749112 -1.284603 1.181476 -3.600255 1.031048 76
77 0.554698 1.291343 -0.736645 1.181476 -3.052297 1.579006 77
78 -3.228893 -1.821339 -1.407555 1.181476 -3.723206 0.908097 78
79 3.38979 0.106067 3.283723 1.181476 0.968072 5.599375 79
80 -2.178762 -0.802852 -1.37591 1.181476 -3.691561 0.939742 80
81 3.615504 2.244229 1.371275 1.181476 -0.944376 3.686926 81
82 -1.706752 1.928668 -3.63542 1.181476 -5.951071 -1.319769 82
83 -1.984511 -0.540016 -1.444495 1.181476 -3.760146 0.871156 83
84 1.990229 0.205605 1.784624 1.181476 -0.531028 4.100275 84
85 -1.078605 -0.150832 -0.927773 1.181476 -3.243424 1.387878 85
86 -0.621235 -1.024559 0.403324 1.181476 -1.912328 2.718975 86
87 2.869003 1.434636 1.434366 1.181476 -0.881285 3.750018 87
88 -3.255606 -0.527626 -2.72798 1.181476 -5.043631 -0.412329 88
89 2.555265 0.803788 1.751477 1.181476 -0.564174 4.067128 89
90 -2.50757 -0.920227 -1.587342 1.181476 -3.902994 0.728309 90
91 -0.308175 -2.083143 1.774968 1.181476 -0.540683 4.09062 91
92 2.733226 0.265235 2.467991 1.181476 0.152339 4.783642 92
93 0.120262 1.738102 -1.61784 1.181476 -3.933491 0.697811 93
94 -0.607865 1.475732 -2.083597 1.181476 -4.399248 0.232055 94
95 -0.401159 0.672401 -1.073561 1.181476 -3.389212 1.242091 95
96 -0.840972 -0.514802 -0.32617 1.181476 -2.641821 1.989481 96
97 1.400079 0.426092 0.973987 1.181476 -1.341664 3.289638 97
98 -2.262942 -1.266238 -0.996704 1.181476 -3.312356 1.318947 98
99 2.119396 -0.022009 2.141405 1.181476 -0.174246 4.457057 99
100 -0.073146 0.668741 -0.741888 1.181476 -3.057539 1.573764 100
101 0.26364 1.162247 -0.898607 1.181476 -3.214258 1.417045 101
102 -1.353692 -0.148202 -1.20549 1.181476 -3.521141 1.110161 102
103 1.806222 1.005824 0.800398 1.181476 -1.515253 3.11605 103
104 -1.669567 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 104
105 0.597025 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 105
106 -0.061195 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 106
107 -0.05709 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 107
108 0.038708 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 108
109
110
forecast
3.117676
5.808251
4.906769
6.119474
8.135326
9.344867
9.147651
8.101493
10.14642
11.0452
10.12258
10.1736
10.82131
10.08406
10.34605
9.692203
11.20557
12.65212
13.40633
12.23122
12.11697
10.45989
9.446458
11.18103
7.58536
10.97853
10.55023
11.22746
9.076171
9.909496
11.68364
9.389118
11.28097
9.0777
9.421852
10.76867
10.04469
9.502648
12.01664
9.607582
10.4788
10.13115
9.310253
9.953237
9.932083
11.6351
10.42824
9.694231
10.16904
10.48666
10.65615
10.12932
8.966306
8.106751
8.673899
8.739862
8.763976
10.60763
8.846284
8.19743
9.700468
9.498808
9.700386
9.819628
12.35705
10.9236
9.700766
10.27416
9.756081
9.287732
8.794808
9.952166
9.146518
8.412073
9.723847
8.448789
9.30917
9.629095
10.49875
8.134556
9.155184
7.992085
10.43953
11.17525
9.921503
10.65302
10.30097
9.322712
11.2085
9.833712
11.00923
9.672212
8.022055
9.10016
10.29356
10.87414
11.04859
10.3771
11.10073
9.556457
10.12661
10.61866
11.36938
10.76144
11.95477
11.47356
11.58441
11.6291
11.61174
11.62813
Complex Numbers
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Complex Numbers
z2 2 1 #NAME?
z2 #NAME? #NAME?
Polar Format and Roots
complex 1 0 0 -1 1 1
polar #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
rect #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME?
cube roots #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Complex Matrix Operations
2*Y 2 8 2 0 #NAME?
4 0 -2 2
Absorbing Markov Chain P2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.16667
1 0 0.16667 0.83333 0 0 0 0 0 0.02778
2 0 0 0.33333 0.66667 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0.66667 0.33333 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0 0.83333 0.16667 0 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
P4
0 1
0 0 0.00463
1 0 0.00077
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
P8
2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4
0.83333 0 0 0 0 0 3.57E-06 0.00227 0.06902 0.36458
0.41667 0.55556 0 0 0 0 6E-07 0.00076 0.03602 0.27756
0.11111 0.55556 0.33333 0 0 0 0 0.00015 0.01502 0.18815
0 0.25 0.58333 0.16667 0 0 0 0 0.00391 0.10534
0 0 0.44444 0.5 0.05556 0 0 0 0 0.03902
0 0 0 0.69444 0.30556 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
P10
2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4
0.16204 0.55556 0.27778 0 0 0 9.92E-08 0.00025 0.01852 0.20305
0.05787 0.3858 0.46296 0.09259 0 0 1.65E-08 8.46E-05 0.00943 0.14463
0.01235 0.20062 0.50926 0.25926 0.01852 0 0 1.69E-05 0.00384 0.09243
0 0.0625 0.40509 0.44907 0.08333 0 0 0 0.00098 0.04909
0 0 0.19753 0.56944 0.23302 0 0 0 0 0.01734
0 0 0 0.48225 0.51775 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
P9
0 1 2 3 4
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
5 6
0.4501 0.11403
0.49661 0.18904
0.50832 0.28837
0.47531 0.41544
0.3871 0.57388
0.23257 0.76743
0 1
5 6
0.50637 0.27181
0.48966 0.35621
0.44957 0.45414
0.3834 0.56653
0.28833 0.69433
0.16151 0.83849
0 1
5 6
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
Absorbing Markov Chain
0 1 2 3 a b P10 0
0 0 0.666667 0 0 0.333333 0 0 #NAME?
1 0 0 0.666667 0 0.333333 0 1 #NAME?
2 0 0 0 0.666667 0.333333 0 2 #NAME?
3 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 #NAME?
a 0 0.666667 0 0 0 0.333333 a #NAME?
b 0 0 0 0 0 1 b #NAME?
P20 0
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
a #NAME?
b #NAME?
1 2 3 a b P30 0 1
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? a #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? b #NAME? #NAME?
1 2 3 a b P40 0 1
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? a #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? b #NAME? #NAME?
2 3 a b
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2 3 a b
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Augemented Dickey-Fuller Table of Critical Values