U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T

A TRADE HOPE
THE ROLE OF THE BLACK SEA GRAIN INITIATIVE
IN BRINGING UKRAINIAN GRAIN TO THE WORLD
20 October 2022

IN IMAGES
May 2022
 Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea.
A beacon of hope – a beacon of possibility –
a beacon of relief -- in a world that needs it
more than ever.
I want to recognize and thank all those who
helped make it happen.
To our hosts, President Erdoğan and the
government of Türkiye:
Your facilitation and persistence have been
essential through every step of this process.
(…) Thank you very much.
To the representatives of the Russian
Federation and Ukraine:
You have overcome obstacles and put aside
differences to pave the way for an initiative
that will serve the common interests of all.

António Guterres,
United Nations Secretary-General, on the signing
of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Istanbul, July 2022

PHOTO/MARK GARTEN/ONU

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report would not have been possible without the essential contributions of the Joint Coordination Centre for the
Black Sea Grain Initiative, comprised of senior representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Türkiye and the
United Nations, which ensures the safe maritime transportation of grain and other foodstuffs from three key Ukrainian
ports in the Black Sea to the rest of the world.
The Global Crisis Response Group convened by the UN Secretary-General played an important role, focusing the world’s
attention on the food insecurity crisis, providing analysis and calling on the international community to avert the worst
cost-of-living crisis in a generation and its devastating impact on billions of people.
As two of the world’s largest suppliers of grain, Ukraine and
the Russian Federation are important sources of food for many
developing countries. However, the war brought grain from Ukraine
to an almost grinding halt and slowed down exports of grain and
fertilizers from the Russian Federation. Faced with the threat of food
insecurity for millions of people around the world,
the United Nations brokered two initiatives.

One is the memorandum of understanding between the United

Nations and the Russian Federation to facilitate
the unimpeded access of exports of their food and fertilizers to
global markets.

The second, which we will explore, is the Black Sea Grain Initiative
signed by the United Nations, the Russian Federation, Türkiye and
Ukraine to reopen the Ukrainian gates of grain to the world.

In a short period of time, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has

gathered momentum, and…
More and larger ships have departed
from Ukrainian ports.
Number of departures of all cargo ships by week
180

160 WAR IN UKRAINE

2021
140

120
INITIATIVE SIGNED
100
2022
80
Ships mostly departing from river ports
60

40

20

0
W01 W04 W07 W10 W13 W16 W19 W22 W25 W28 W31 W34 W37
January 2021 24 February 22 July
23 February 2022 21 July 2022 22 September 2022

Putting this into perspective

Average weekly departures of all cargo ships in Ukraine
BEFORE THE WAR WAR IN UKRAINE INITIATIVE SIGNED
January 2021-23 February 2022 24 February-21 July 2022 22 July-22 September 2022

Source: UNCTAD, based on data

provided by Sea/ (www.sea.live).
And as seaport activity increased
so did their exports.
Weekly volume of all cargo shipped from Ukrainian ports (millions of tonnes)

All cargos excluding the Initiative Grain cargos under the Initiative
1.8M

1.6M ​ INITIATIVE SIGNED

1.4M

1.2M

1M

800K WAR IN UKRAINE ​

600K

400K
Exports mainly from river ports ​
200K
W09

W10

W11

W12

W13

W14

W15

W16

W17

W18

W19

W20

W21

W22

W23

W24

W25

W26

W27

W28

W29

W30

W31

W32

W33

W34

W35

W36

W37

W38
MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data provided by Sea/ (www.sea.live) and the Joint Coordination Centre.
The gap in weekly grain cargo is closing.
But there is still work to do.
Weekly volume of grain shipped from Ukrainian ports,
2021 vs 2022 (millions of tonnes)

Grain cargos in 2021 Grain cargos in 2022 (under the Black Sea Grain Initiative)

2.4M

2.2M

2M

1.8M

1.6M

1.4M

1.2M

1M

800K

600K

400K

200K

0
W47

W48

W49

W50

W51

W52
W31

W32

W33

W34

W35

W36

W37

W38

W39

W40

W41

W42

W43

W44

W45

W46

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data provided by Sea/ (www.sea.live) and the Joint Coordination Centre.
 The Initiative has become
a trade hope for the world
and particularly for developing countries.
Nearly

8,000,000
tonnes of grain and food have left Ukraine

in more than

350vessels.
As of 19 October 2022

MORE DETAILS
Food is reaching global markets.
Composition of food exports, as a share of total (percentage)

Other
15%
Rapeseed
6%
Corn Total cargo
42% (tonnes): Sunflower oil
7%
7,946,165

Wheat
30%

Source: UNCTAD secretariat based on data from the Joint Coordination Centre as at 19 October.
Most maize goes to developed countries,
and likely a significant input for animal feed.
Share of exports of maize to country groups by development status

Developing
32%

Tonnes:
3,358,524
Developed
68%

Note: Cargo may be processed and re-exported from the primary destination.
Source: UNCTAD secretariat based on data from the Joint Coordination Centre as at 19 October.
Wheat, a pillar of food security,
is mostly going to developing countries.
Share of exports of wheat to country groups by development status

Least
Developed
19%

Other
Developing
47%
Tonnes:
2,354,179
Developed
34%

Note: Cargo may be processed and re-exported from the primary destination.
Source: UNCTAD secretariat based on data from the Joint Coordination Centre as at 19 October.
Vital grain is flowing, but there is still a large
export gap to fill.
Ukrainian exports to developing countries, selected commodities, in tonnes,
January to September, 2021 and 2022
Exports Exports before the Initiative (January to July) ​ Exports after the Initiative (August to September) ​ Export​ Gap
Maize
2021 9.6M
2022 6.3M 998.1K 2.4M

Wheat
2021 11.8M
2022 2.8M 999.2K 8.1M
Exports Exports before the Initiative (January to July) ​ Exports after the Initiative (August to September) ​ Export​ Gap

Total LDCs
Ukrainian
2021 2.1M wheat exports to least developed countries, in tonnes,
2022 441.5KExports before the Initiative (January to
424.6K 1.2M
January
Exports to September, 2021 and 2022
July) ​ Exports after
after the
the Initiative
Initiative (August
(August to
to September)
September) ​ ​ Export​ Gap
Export​ Gap

Total LDCs
Bangladesh
2021
2021 2.1M
578.6K
2022 441.5K
2022 210K 368.6K 424.6K 1.2M
1.2M

Bangladesh
Yemen
2021 578.6K
2021 527.4K
2022 210K
2022 248.6K 368.6K
241.3K

Yemen
Ethiopia The Export Gap is the difference in
2021 527.4K
2021 344.8K
241.3K exports between 2021 and 2022.
2022 248.6K
2022 253.8K

Ethiopia
Djibouti
Source: UNCTAD secretariat based on UN Comtrade and Joint Coordination Centre data.
2021 344.8K
2021 124K
2022
2022 253.8K
The Initiative has helped to push down food
prices in the last six months.
FAO Food Price Index (100=January 2020)

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
2020 2021 2022

The prospect of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the reopening of the
Black Sea ports helped to push down historically high market prices.
Since April 2022, the FAO Food Price index has been on a downward trend.

Source: FAO.
However, uncertainty about the renewal of the
Initiative is sending prices of grain up again.
In nominal US dollars

Prices going up again

Maize ($/mt) Wheat ($/mt)

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data from S&P and MarketWatch.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative
remains our best trade hope.

Consult the online and interactive report