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2. Methods of calculation
2.2.1 The reliability management for construction works shall be classified as CC2 which is
Medium consequence for loss of human life, economic, social or environmental consequences
considerable. Because this involves people life in the school (EN1990, Annex B table B1).
2.2.2 The working life of the tip shall be classified as category 4 which has 50 years of
working life. And the reason for choosing this type is the same as the reason for reliability
management (EN1990,2.3 table 2.1).
2.2.3 The durability of the tip is depend on the working life, the properties of the sandstone
underneath, the properties of tip material, and ambient effect such as quantity of rainfall, and the
underground springs in the Brithdir seam that lie inside sandstone layer (EN1990, 2.4(2)).
2.2.4 The level of acceptable risks of the tip is base on the location of the tip and the record
of the previous similar accident in the coalfield area. For the tips that may lead to the loss of
human life in the village such as tip 4 and tip 7 the design category shall fall into the same type as
for general building which has the medium risk and the working period of the tips shall be
designed for 50 years. But for the tips that place on low risk area the consequences of actions
may be less than those tips that its consequences may lead to the loss of human life.
2.2.5 The limit states design of the tip shall be carried out both Ultimate limit states and
Serviceability limit state. For ultimate limit states, the tip design is concerned about the safety of
the people (in village) and the safety of the structure for loss of equilibrium of the structure
(EN1990, 3.3, (1)P&(4)P). For serviceability limit states, the design is concerned about the works
of the workmen in the tip area (EN1990, 3.4 (1)P).
2.2.5.1 Actions and effects of action of the tip
Before making a list of all possible forces and effects of action of the tip, the historical data
involved the mode of failures of the slope stability cases near the site from the past shall be used
for design future possible failure of the tip. The records indicate that the circular slip happen first,
the followed closely by a flow slide. This situation used to occur before on the tip 4, 1944.
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During 1947 -1951, there was a rotational slip at the tip 5 but did not cause the flow slide. In
1963 (three years before the disaster in 1966), the rotational slip occurred in the tip 7 and also
create a flow slide of colliery spoils. Later on, in 1944, the further slip of the tip 7 was detected
(paragraph 276 in report of tribunal). On summary, this area can be classified as a high risk area
of rotational slip and flow slide. According to the records, the tip 7 was still an active tip at that
time. And from the movement record, the tip was instable since its last slip and flow in 1963.
The summarize of the consequence of the flow slide shown in paragraph 275 in report of
tribunal can be demonstrated as shown below.
The tip was re-instigated its movement by arising of water pressure in the sandstone
beneath the tip.
The movement created shear displacement at the crest of the slope and reduced the
stability and it failed in the end. The rise of water content in the tip base cause
liquefaction and made the flow slide occurred
The mud-run created some damages to the thin boulder clay layer which confined the
underground water. So, the water can escape from the confinement and large volume of
this water is merged to the slide material.
As the result of these two events, it causes liquefaction and a catastrophe flood to the
village.
It is no doubt that the slope stability analysis should base on the analysis of the circular slip.
But if others possible modes of failure are detected by the engineer, for instance, failure in linear
plane. So the wedge analysis or the translational slide analysis shall be performed. The
calculation shall include the design for that failure too. As mentioned in the consequences of the
flow slide, the instigators of the slip may not only be just the settlement by the shear failure at the
crest of the slope. Any ground movement can be the stimulators too; the seismic effects, mining
effects, earthquake effects, also all the water sources related to the instability of the slope.
According to EN1997, 11.3, (2)P, the forces and effects that involved the stability of the spoil tip
shall be illustrated as shown below.
The self weight of the material tip.
The frictional for in the failure plane (As basic information, the tip material contains
ashes which behave like the shale stone)
The material properties of the colliery spoil especially focusing on permeability and
void ratio.
The variation in the water content of the tip
The water pressure of the seam beneath the tip (Seepage effect)
The pore water pressure of the tip (to predict the water table line in the tip for)
The rain falls or snow load during winter
The cyclic change of the temperature at the side (for long term stability)
The contaminated substance and its reaction effects ambient environment
The Geology (behavior and the movement direction of the fault close to the site)
The continuous ground movement caused by mining effect from the opposite side of
the Aberfan village or others ground activity
The creep effects from freezing and thawing of the snow to the surface of the tip
The earthquake and seismic effect (maybe the site is subjected to earthquake load or
there may be a significant number of supersonic aircrafts frequency fly through this
area,)
2.2.5.2 The ultimate limit states design
For the load calculation and combination of the characteristic load mentioned in actions and
effects topic, the partial factors for effects of action and the material properties shall be used as
describing in (EN1997, Annex A) for the combination of action will be mainly selected the
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leading variable by focusing on the parameters related to water level or water content in the tip.
All of the design value actions shall be referred to EN1990,6.3 and as the state assumption above
that the knowledge in material properties of the colliery spoil is still quite mystery. So, any
effects related to the colliery shall be treated as unfavorable.
2.2.5.3 The serviceability limit states design
The effects that must be consider in this design type are the long term creep under drained
condition, the change in ground-water conditions and corresponding pore-water pressures, and
the mining activity on the opposite side of the Aberfan village. The hazardous from
contamination substances in the colliery tip. The records show that the pH value of the colliery
spoil is less than 3 which indicate the strong acid condition in the tip when the contaminants
generate the chemical reaction with the water. Finally, the tip is still active tip, the design for
suitable and comfortable for working of the workmen group and more future colliery load shall
be applied in this design too.
2.2.8 A note of items to be checked during construction and monitoring and maintenance
The lateral and vertical ground movement of the slope (instigate the circular slip). The
vertical movement can be measured by using inclinometers, and the horizontal movement
can be measured by conventional surveying including of the changing of the slope angle.
The recently mining activity (instigate the circular slip)
The recent seismic and earthquake (instigate the circular slip)
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The weather forecast for the precipitation in the site area (in case of continuous raining
during the construction, the risk to have a disaster will increase).
The level of the water inside the tip (decrease the stability of the slope)
The rate of movement by installing the remote digital readout on the instability slope. So,
the alarm will sound earlier before too late.
***all the equipments for measuring the parameters above shall maintenance to ensure
that they always in working status. ***
The failures of slope stability come from the high water quantity inside the colliery tip. This
water reduces the strength of the slope and causes the collapse and liquefaction. To prevent
failure, there are two way to solve the problems; increase the strength of the slope or dewater out
of the slope.
Figure4. The perforated pipe and filter Figure5. The horizontal and vertical drainage system
4.1.3 Install the electronic devices to detected the unusual soil movement
This is best for the short term solution and raises the moral of the people who live in Aberfan
village. Because human will feels safe and sound if they notice the activation of security system.
At least, it can sound the alarm of the next disaster to the village.