REP-300

Pakistan Oil and Gas Marketing Sector

7MFY22: Petroleum Sales jumped up by 14.5% YoY to 12.9mn tons
02-Feb-2022

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Petroleum Consumption
Jan’22: Petroleum Sales increased by 19% YoY
Total Petroleum and Lubricant sales arrived at 1.80mn tons in Jan’22, portraying a growth of 19% YoY and 20%
MoM. The growth in sales is attributable to i) massive growth in automobile sales resulting in higher demand of MS, Exhibit: OMC's Sales Volume
ii) reliance of majority of the industries on HSD based captive power generation due to shortage of Gas/RLNG, iii)
Million Ton Jan-22 Dec-21 MoM Jan-21 YoY 7MFY22 7MFY21 YoY
Higher HSD demand from agriculture sector, and iv) improvement in economic activity. As a result, MS reported a
Industry
growth of 17% YoY and 6% MoM, settling at 0.74mn tons in Jan’22. Similarly, High Speed Diesel (HSD) volumes
MS 0.74 0.70 6.2% 0.64 16.9% 5.26 4.75 10.7%
depicted a surge of by 36% YoY and 20% MoM, clocking-in at 0.74mn in Jan’22. Meanwhile, Furnace Oil (FO) sales HSD 0.74 0.62 20.0% 0.54 36.1% 5.10 4.29 18.9%
volumes declined by 11% YoY in Jan’22, standing at 0.26mn tons. Whereas on MoM basis, FO offtake witnessed a FO 0.26 0.13 102.9% 0.29 -11.1% 2.16 1.91 13.0%
hefty jump of 103% which is attributable to higher demand from IPPs. Total 1.80 1.51 19.6% 1.52 18.9% 12.91 11.27 14.5%
PSO
During 7MFY22, sales of total petroleum products climbed up by 15% YoY to 12.91mn tons compared to 11.27mn
MS 0.31 0.29 6.7% 0.26 21.8% 2.32 1.98 17.3%
tons in SPLY. Product wise data revealed that double digit growth was witnessed in all categories; MS, HSD and FO
HSD 0.41 0.30 35.3% 0.25 64.1% 2.56 2.04 25.1%
with offtake witnessing an ascend to 5.26mn tons, 5.10mn tons and 2.16mn tons, respectively. FO 0.09 0.04 109.4% 0.16 -41.5% 1.26 0.97 29.8%
Total 0.86 0.69 24.8% 0.69 24.0% 6.44 5.20 23.8%
Exhibit: Contribution of MS, HSD and FO in monthly sales APL
MS HSD FO Others Total (YoY) MS 0.06 0.06 5.0% 0.05 15.5% 0.42 0.35 19.9%
(mn Tons)
HSD 0.07 0.06 10.3% 0.04 57.0% 0.44 0.31 41.8%
2.25 60%
FO 0.03 0.02 31.4% 0.04 -16.1% 0.32 0.34 -6.5%
2.00 0.05 0.06 50%
0.04 0.04 0.05 Total 0.16 0.14 10.6% 0.13 19.7% 1.20 1.03 16.3%
1.75 0.34 0.37 0.40 0.33 0.06 0.06
0.04 0.03 0.51 0.26 40% SHEL
0.18 0.17 0.18
1.50 0.05 0.06
0.05 0.13 MS 0.08 0.08 -1.5% 0.07 10.4% 0.55 0.50 10.7%
1.25 0.18 0.21 30%
0.78 0.72 0.70 0.84 0.74 HSD 0.05 0.05 1.7% 0.05 13.2% 0.41 0.34 22.7%
0.79 0.76 0.67 0.81
1.00 0.53 0.62 20% FO - - nm - nm - - nm
0.55
0.75 Total 0.14 0.13 0.6% 0.12 11.5% 1.00 0.86 16.5%
10%
0.50 HASCOL
0.69 0.67 0.73 0.78 0.81 0.74 0.80 0.77 0.70 0.70 0.74
0.25 0.63 0%
MS 0.02 0.02 5.0% 0.04 -49.3% 0.11 0.31 -64.6%
- -10% HSD 0.01 0.01 -24.8% 0.02 -70.6% 0.05 0.23 -77.5%
Jul-21
Jun-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22
Apr-21

Aug-21

Sep-21
Feb-21

Mar-21

May-21

FO - - nm - nm 0.03 0.00 nm
Total 0.03 0.03 -4.2% 0.07 -57.2% 0.20 0.55 -64.2%

Source (s): OCAC, AHL Research Source (s): OCAC, AHL Research

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Petroleum Consumption
PSO’s Offtake depicted a growth of 24% YoY in Jan’22
Company-wise analysis reveals that PSO posted growth of 24% YoY in Jan’22 which was majorly contributed by
sales growth of HSD and MS by 64% and 22% YoY, respectively. Similarly, APL and SHEL followed the suit Exhibit: Listed Oil Marketing Companies Market Share during 7MFY22
portraying a growth of 20% and 12% YoY, respectively. However, HASCOL’s offtake plunged by 57% YoY due to
significant decline in MS and HSD volumes.
During 7MFY22, PSO’s market share went up by 4% YoY to 50% vis-à-vis 46% in 7MFY21. Likewise, market share
of APL and SHEL remained unchanged at 9% and 8%, respectively. Whereas, market share of HASCOL and other
OMCs dropped by 3% and 1% YoY to 2% (5% in 7MFY21), and 31% (32.0% in 7MFY21), respectively. 31%
32%

7MFY22 7MFY21 46%

50%
Exhibit: Historical Market Share of Listed Oil Marketing Companies
PSO APL SHEL HASCOL Others 5%
2%
100%
8%
9%
8%
85% 34% 33% 32% 30% 30% 30% 30% 33% 34% 34%
35% 35% 9%
70% 3% 1% 1% 1%
3% 3% 2% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 1% 2% 2%
3% 8% 8% PSO APL SHEL HASCOL Others
9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 9%
55% 8% 10% 8%
8% 9% 8% 8% 10% 10% 9%
8% Source (s): OCAC, AHL Research
40%

25% 47% 52% 52% 51% 52% 47% 48%

46% 47% 47% 45% 46%

10%

-5% Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

Source (s): OCAC, AHL Research

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Petroleum Consumption
PSO’s Offtake depicted a growth of 24% YoY in Jan’22
Exhibit: Monthly Sales & Market Share of Major Oil Marketing Companies Exhibit: Major Oil Marketing Companies Sales
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Tons 7MFY22 7MFY21 YoY
Sales (mn tons)
PSO 807 754 698 767 762 721 693 641 693 778 758 918 1,008
PSO 6,440,087 5,203,161 23.8%
TPPL 163 158 147 167 155 149 146 142 151 155 158 177 180 TPPL 1,217,556 1,085,131 12.2%
APL 166 128 168 169 142 127 134 117 127 135 143 163 162
APL 1,204,777 1,034,778 16.4%
SPL 125 107 108 131 137 131 122 123 130 134 135 152 144
GO 121 112 88 140 152 108 101 117 107 155 154 149 148 SPL 1,002,565 860,341 16.5%
BYCO 108 54 98 89 114 109 96 84 86 88 86 113 78
GO 989,513 821,666 20.4%
HASCOL 89 75 65 86 94 73 68 43 40 34 59 72 49
BE 25 64 55 44 48 49 45 34 42 58 55 42 41 BYCO 522,685 667,613 -21.7%
PEARL PARCO 5 27 21 24 22 30 39 16 19 31 37 24 23 HASCOL 197,238 551,028 -64.2%
PUMA 21 24 22 25 26 23 21 23 21 26 27 25 24
BE 342,935 329,539 4.1%
Others 33 51 56 57 63 74 51 59 69 78 80 98 81
Total 1,664 1,555 1,525 1,699 1,716 1,595 1,516 1,398 1,486 1,672 1,692 1,932 1,938 PEARL PARCO 233,814 168,500 38.8%
Market Share
PUMA 163,130 162,383 0.5%
PSO 48.5% 48.5% 45.8% 45.2% 44.4% 45.2% 45.7% 45.9% 46.7% 46.5% 44.8% 47.5% 52.0%
TPPL 9.8% 10.2% 9.6% 9.9% 9.1% 9.3% 9.6% 10.1% 10.1% 9.3% 9.4% 9.1% 9.3% Others 598,440 384,802 55.5%
APL 10.0% 8.2% 11.0% 10.0% 8.3% 8.0% 8.8% 8.4% 8.6% 8.1% 8.5% 8.4% 8.4%
Total 12,912,740 11,268,942 14.5%
SPL 7.5% 6.9% 7.1% 7.7% 8.0% 8.2% 8.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.4%
GO 7.3% 7.2% 5.8% 8.2% 8.8% 6.8% 6.7% 8.4% 7.2% 9.3% 9.1% 7.7% 7.6% Source (s): OCAC, AHL Research
BYCO 6.5% 3.4% 6.4% 5.2% 6.7% 6.9% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 5.9% 4.0%
HASCOL 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 5.1% 5.5% 4.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 3.5% 3.8% 2.5%
BE 1.5% 4.1% 3.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1%
PEARL PARCO 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 2.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 1.2% 1.2%
PUMA 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2%
Others 2.0% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 3.7% 4.7% 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 5.0% 4.2%

Source (s): OCAC, AHL Research

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Petroleum Consumption
Focus Charts
Exhibit: Historical Trend of MoGas sales and Price Exhibit: Historical Trend of HSD sales and Price

MOGas Retail Volumes (RHS) MoGas HSD Retail Volumes (RHS) HSD
(PKR/Liter) (Mn Tons) (PKR/Liter) (Mn Tons)

160.00 0.9 150.00 0.9

150.00 140.00 0.8

0.8
140.00 0.7
130.00
130.00 0.7
0.6
120.00
120.00
0.6 0.5
110.00 110.00
0.5 0.4
100.00
100.00
0.3
90.00 0.4
90.00
80.00 0.2
0.3
70.00 80.00 0.1

60.00 0.2 70.00 -

Jan-20

Mar-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Jun-21
Jul-21

Jan-22
Feb-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

Feb-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Aug-21
Sep-21
Apr-20
May-20

Oct-20

Apr-21
May-21

Oct-21

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-20

Jun-20

Jan-21

Jun-21

Jan-22
Feb-20
Mar-20

Dec-20

Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Nov-20

Sep-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
May-20

Oct-20

May-21

Oct-21
Apr-20

Apr-21
Source (s): OCAC, OGRA, AHL Research Source (s): OCAC, OGRA, AHL Research

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