Argus Nitrogen

Formerly Argus FMB Nitrogen

Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

Executive summary prICES

No honeymoon after India tender Key nitrogen prices $/t

16 Mar 9 Mar ±
Urea prices fell again in every region except the US as de-
mand is still insufficient to balance the market. Prilled urea – bulk
Baltic fob 250-260 265-275 u

US prices jumped as high as $360/t cfr US Gulf as spring sea- China fob 350-360 370-380 u

son and trader short-covering combined, but other Americas Granular urea – bulk

prices fell sharply. Middle East fob non-US 304-310 305-319 u

Egypt (Europe) fob 365-370 403 u

Deals in Brazil and central America saw prices fall by Baltic fob 250-305 290-320 u

another $10-20/t from last week, depressing netbacks for US Gulf fob, $/st 305.0-332.0 290.0-315.0 t

producers in Algeria, Russia and Middle East particularly. Southeast Asia cfr 330-350 350-370 u

Brazil cfr 315-330 325-345 u

India's IPL confirmed with buyers 1.1mn t of urea purchase, French Atlantic fca, €/t 390-405 400-410 u

Ammonium sulphate – bulk

leading to deals for Middle East and Russian urea at $304/t
China fob (standard caprolactam) 160-170 165-170 u
fob and around $260/t fob, respectively. Some traders
Brazil cfr (compacted/granular) 215-220 220-225 u
remain short, but with the extended loading window have
Ammonium nitrate – bulk
little urgency.
Baltic fob 200-220 250-255 u

UAN (32%)
Overall tone in the market remains bearish with buyers mini-
Baltic fob (non-Russian) 340-356 348-365 u
mizing exposure, anticipating lower prices, and accelerating
the decline as a result. Granular urea: AG fob vs US Gulf cfr $/t

Mideast US Gulf
Market drivers 900

800
Southeast Asia demand
Importers across the region sought cargoes to arrive in April 700
to meet peak season demand, but prices fell as traders com- hh
600
peted aggressively to supply.
500
Freight rates rising 400
Freight costs increased again for most routes and continued
to pressure lower both netbacks and trader bids for fresh 300
21 Apr 14 Jul 29 Sep 22 Dec 16 Mar
cargoes.

30-60 day Outlook data & download index

„„ India urea supply and demand
Weak „„ Ukraine and Turkmenistan export line-ups
Further correction lower seems inevitable without external
„„ US and Brazil urea import line-ups
forces acting on the market, amid structural oversupply and
„„ India urea tenders
the waning of the spring season for most of the northern
„„ Brazilian amsul vessel lineup
hemisphere.
„„ Global amsul tradeflow

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 Argus Nitrogen Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

Nitrogen prices $/t Nitrogen prices $/t

16 Mar 9 Mar ± 16 Mar 9 Mar ±

Prilled urea – fob bulk Ammonium sulphate – bulk

Black Sea 250-260 265-285 u Baltic fob (caprolactam) 148-159 148-159 34
Baltic 250-260 265-275 u Black Sea fob (caprolactam and synthetic) na na
Croatia/Romania 390-400 390-400 34 China fob (standard caprolactam) 160-170 165-170 u
Middle East 305-310 305-310 34 China fob (compacted/granular) 190-200 190-200 34
China 350-360 370-380 u NW Europe fob (granular caprolactam) 295-305 295-305 34
Brazil (cfr) 305-320 315-335 u NW Europe fob (standard caprolactam) 212-228 222-228 u
Mexico (cfr) east coast 300-310 320-325 u Southeast Asia cfr (caprolactam) 185-195 185-195 34
Southeast Asia (cfr). 370-375 380-400 u Brazil cfr (standard caprolactam) 200-210 205-210 u
India (cfr) 330.00-334.80 330.00-334.80 34 Brazil cfr (compacted/granular) 215-220 220-225 u
Granular urea – fob bulk Ammonium nitrate
Middle East all netbacks 288-318 276-319 t Baltic bulk fob 200-220 250-255 u
Middle East US netback 291-318 276-302 t Black Sea bulk fob 200-300 250-335 u
Middle East Brazil netback 288-300 300-317 u France (fca bagged), €/t 420-430 480-490 u
Middle East non-US netbacks 304-310 305-319 u UK (cif bagged), £/t 390-400 405-425 u
Iran 280-290 280-300 u CAN 27 Germany (cif inland), €/t 320-350 335-350 u
Egypt (Europe) 365-370 403 u UAN (32%)
Egypt (non-Europe) 320-330 325-335 u Nola, $/st 270-275 265-270 t
Algeria 300-345 325-380 u Rouen 30% N fca, €/t 328-342 335-350 u
North Africa full range 300-370 325-403 u Black Sea fob 196-228 196-233 u
Nigeria 297-345 300-345 u Baltic fob (non-Russian) 340-356 348-365 u
China 380-390 400-410 u Baltic fob (Russian) 196-280 196-280 34
Southeast Asia 330-335 330-350 u Nutrient values
Southeast Asia (cfr) 330-350 350-370 u Granular urea
Venezuela/Trinidad 270-335 280-317 t Middle East - all netbacks fob $/unit N 6.59 6.47 t
Brazil (cfr) 315-330 325-345 u French Atlantic fca €/unit N 8.64 8.80 u
Mexico (cfr) west coast 350-357 350-360 u
Prilled urea
US Gulf (barge), $/st 305.0-332.0 290.0-315.0 t
Baltic fob $/unit N 5.54 5.87 u
US Gulf (cfr) 331-360 314-342 t
Southeast Asia cfr $/unit N 8.10 8.48 u
Nola barge weighted average, Mar 320.75 303.29 t
Nitrates
Nola barge weighted average, Apr 325.00 299.33 t
AN bulk fob Baltic $/unit N 6.18 7.43 u
French Atlantic (fca), €/t 390-405 400-410 u
UAN 30pc N Rouen fca €/unit N 11.17 11.42 u
Baltic 250-305 290-320 u
UAN 32pc Nola fob $/unit N 8.52 8.36 t
Black Sea 290-360 300-390 u
Ammonium Sulphate
India (cfr) 330.00-334.80 330.00-334.80 34
Brazil cfr (caprolactam) $/unit N 9.76 9.88 u
Argus Nitrogen Index Southeast Asia cfr caprolactam) $/unit N 9.05 9.05 34

Argus Nitrogen Index, points na 304.272

Argus Nitrogen Index is a composite based on Argus assessments for a basket of
nitrogen-based fertilizers. The index is calculated such that 1 June 2017 = 100 for Urea freight
each component class of fertilizers Loading Destination Tonnage Rate ($/t)
Low High
Natural gas prices
Henry Hub $/mn Btu 2.48 2.56 u Mideast Gulf US Gulf 45 40 42
TTF month ahead $/mn Btu 14.64 13.69 t Mideast Gulf Thailand 30 30 35
Mideast Gulf Brazil 40 27 30
Baltic Brazil 30 40 45
Nigeria Brazil 30 18 28
Egypt French bay 6 47 49
China SE Asia 6 25 35
China India 60 19 23
Algeria Brazil 30 24 26
Algeria US Gulf 30 25 27
Algeria French bay 12 35 45
Baltic EC Mexico 30 40 50
Argus freight rates are assessed in consultation with
Baltic WC Mexico 25 60 70
producers, traders and buyers and freight broker service China WC Mexico 25 36 38
provider Nueva Seas. UAN solution
Klaipeda Rouen 25 - 30 18 20

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Issue Ref: 158128

Argus Nitrogen
Urea
Baltic
Prilled urea prices from Russian ports sank on deals for India
and central America. A 50,000t prilled urea cargo priced at
around $260/t fob Kotka after India confirmed its purchases
under the 3 March tender. In addition, Acron sold prilled
urea into central America between $250-260/t fob.
Granular urea trade slowed this week, with only a single
spot deal for central America concluded around $260/t fob
amid minimal European demand.
Black Sea
Prices from Georgian ports spanned a broad range this
week. One spot deal concluded on a fob basis around $360/t
fob for March shipment of Turkmen granular from Poti, but
April prices were indicated around $350/t fob. Socar again
offered Azeri granular around $420/t fob to traders but no
deals concluded.
Netbacks to Russian producers from business in Turkey and
deepsea markets sank below $300/t fob this week.
nitrogen this week
US — Nola urea climbs to $332/st Poland — Azoty shutters
fob on prompt demand as upper ammonium sulphate plant
river opens
Brazil — granular urea
prices fall to $315/t cfr
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Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023
Europe
Germany
An importer bought a coastal barge of granular urea at
around $370/t cfr duty paid, to ship later this month from
Benelux.
Domestic prices were around €430/t cpt for granular urea,
with offers for stabilized urea at around a €45/t premium.
France
Liquidity for March and April loads was low this week but
a few deals were reported around €405/t fca La Pallice for
March shipment, while April was highest at €390/t fca.
Distributors and co-ops anticipate offers for the summer
campaign will begin later this month, and are targeting
around €350/t fca for this ($355-360/t cfr equivalent).
Italy
Indagro finished selling its 30,000t cargo of Nigerian granular
urea this week, which will arrive at Ravenna in early-April.
Latest deals were made around $380-385/t cfr.
Spot prices in the port sank to around €500/t fca in big bags
and fresh demand is low as market participants anticipate
Yara will return to the market soon as it prepares for the
restart of its Ferrara plant.
Indonesia — Pupuk Indonesia tenders
to sell prilled and granular urea
Middle East — granular urea
cargo trades at $304/t fob
Brunei — small cargo
trades at $335/t fob for
March shipment
India — IPL confirms pur-
chase of 1.1mn t of urea
against 3 March tender
Page 3 of 11
Argus Nitrogen Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

Argus Spot Deals Selection - 16 March

Product Origin Supplier Buyer Destination ’000t $/t bulk Shipment

Granular urea
Black Sea trader trader Romania 6 360 fob March
Algeria Fertiglobe Incofe WCCA 30 340s cfr April
Algeria Incofe Nitron Colombia 15 high-340s cfr April
Algeria Fertiglobe importers Brazil 30 330 cfr March
open trader importers Brazil 15 320 cfr March
open trader importers Brazil 15 315 cfr March
Bahrain PIC trader India 45 304 fob March
Brunei BFI trader SEA 4 335 fob March
Nigeria Indagro importer Italy 5 385 cfr March
Prilled urea
open trader TFC Taiwan 6 370-371 cfr April
Russia producer trader India 50 260 fob April/May

Romania Middle East

Domestic demand remained quite strong this week, though
prices at Constanza sank to around $450/t fca in bags.
Africa
Egypt
Several producers cut offers for March and April granular
urea shipments to $370/t fob by the end of the week, fol-
lowing a deal on 9 March in the low-$380s/t fob. Little has
been sold for April shipment and there are still tonnes avail-
able for March loading.
Egypt’s producers have lost significant market share in Eu-
rope again this month as traders covered European demand
with around 120,000t of cheaper urea from Nigeria, Middle
East and the US.
Algeria
Fertiglobe sold two cargoes of Sorfert urea at around a
$300/t fob netback for Brazil and west coast central America
this week, loading March and April.
AOA offered traders end-March and April cargoes at $345/t
fob, targeting business in Europe, but with no deals con-
cluded.
Several spot granular urea cargoes were offered this week
for March and April shipment and prices slipped as the week
progressed. One deal concluded at $304/t fob for late-March
loading from Bahrain but QatarEnergy, SIUCI and PIC all also
offered April-loading cargoes – latest offers were heard at
$315/t fob against bids below $300/t fob.
Prilled urea is in tight supply from the Middle East — little
is available spot until May following recent commitments to
buyers in India and southeast Asia.
Bahrain
PIC sold 45,000t of granular urea to a trader at $304/t fob
for end-March loading, which is expected to ship to west
coast India.
Saudi Arabia
Sabic will load in early-April 25,000t of prilled and granular
urea to ship to an importer in the Philippines, against a deal
concluded last week at around $370/t cfr for both grades.
Iran
Pardis sold three cargoes of granular urea at $290/t fob for
April shipment to Turkey. Traders continue to target $10-20/t
below this but no deals were reported.

Zambia Lordegan shut down its urea factory because of a compres-

The ministry of agriculture will close on 3 April a tender to sor failure – a restart date is not yet known.
buy 120,380t of urea and 120,380t of 10-20-10+6S for the
2023-24 season. The tender seeks delivery between 2 May-31
August 2023.

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Argus Nitrogen Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

Asia Yn50/t to Yn2,650/t ex-works.

China
Export offers remained unworkable this week, with lowest
indications from sellers around $360/t fob for prills. Little-
to-no granular urea is on offer at present, with the tonnes
generally directed into the domestic market.
Domestic prices slide as coal prices fall
Domestic prilled urea prices slipped this week on falling coal
prices in key regions.
Coal prices dropped by Yn100/t this week in Shanxi, and
levels also fell in Inner Mongolia.
„„ Inner Mongolia: prilled urea prices slumped by Yn60/t to
Yn2,660/t ex-works.
„„ Jiangsu: prilled urea prices fell by Yn40/t to Yn2,830/t
ex-works.
India
IPL issued letters of intent, confirming purchase of just un-
der 1.1mn t of urea from suppliers which participated in its 3
March tender. See table for details.
Sri Lanka
Agstar was in the market to buy 12,000t of bulk prilled urea
for April shipment to Colombo.

„„ Shandong: prilled urea prices fell by Yn30/t to Yn2,670/t
ex-works.
„„ Hebei: prilled urea prices dropped to Yn2,660-2,690/t ex-
works this week from Yn2,690/t ex-works last week.
„„ Shanxi: prilled urea prices declined by Yn20/t to
Yn2,610/t ex-works, while granular urea prices dropped by
Containerized prills were offered at $400/t cfr Colombo in
500t lots.
Afghanistan
The UNFAO will close on 27 March a tender to buy 38,269t of
urea in 50kg bags for shipment by 30 September.

Vessel nominations against IPL 3 March tender

Bidder Tonnage Disport Vessel Loadport Country ETA Quantity

EAST COAST
Liven 45,000 Kakinada Sitrah Bahrain end-Mar 45000
Swiss Singapore 45,000 Gangavaram
Swiss Singapore 50,000 Gangavaram
Swiss Singapore 50,000 Paradip
Swiss Singapore 45,000 Dhamra
OQ Trading 45,000 Kakinada
OQ Trading 45,000 Karaikal
Continental 50,000 Tuticorin
Midgulf 45,000 Kakinada
Midgulf 47,500 Krishnapatnam
Midgulf 50,000 Krishnapatnam
WEST COAST
OQ Trading 45,000 Mundra Lily Chennai Sur Oman end-Mar 45,000
OQ Trading 45,000 Mundra Prabhu Sumat Sur Oman early-Apr 45,000
OQ Trading 45,000 Mundra
OQ Trading 40,000 Mundra
OQ Trading 50,000 Hazira
Agri Commodities 50,000 Kandla
Agri Commodities 50,000 Kandla
Swiss Singapore 70,000 Pipavav
Swiss Singapore 60,000 Tuna
Swiss Singapore 60,000 Dahej
Swiss Singapore 60,000 Rozi
GRAND TOTAL 1,092,500

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Argus Nitrogen
Taiwan
Taiwan Fertilizer closed a tender this week to buy 6,000t of
prilled urea for end-March shipment; the lowest offer was
from a trader at $370-371/t cfr.
South Korea
Chobi will close a tender on 17 March to buy 6,000t of
granular urea for first-half April shipment.
Myanmar
Awba is still in the market for 25,000t of granular urea for
first-half April shipment and indicated price ideas to trad-
ers around $330/t cfr. Offers, though, were generally at or
above $360/t cfr.
Indonesia
Pupuk Indonesia tenders to sell urea
Pupuk Indonesia will close on 17 March a tender to sell
prilled and granular urea for April shipment.
The tender seeks bids for 30,000-45,000t of granular and
6,000-12,000t of prills, but the producer is likely to target
additional sales after the tender closes – with a mandate for
up to 120,000t of granular in total.
Pupuk Indonesia last tendered on 15 February, with awards
at $348.88/t fob for granular and $367/t fob for the prills.
Brunei
BFI offered firm to traders for April shipment at $330/t fob,
but no deals concluded. A small cargo for end-March ship-
ment changed hands at $335/t fob.
Malaysia
Petronas did not offer any spot cargoes this week and is
likely to have only a few coasters available for spot business
in April.
Traders offered importers around $350/t cfr for small lots to
ship in April, but no business concluded.
Vietnam
A trader offered 6,000t of granular urea of open origin
at low-$347.50s/t cfr Ho Chi Minh this week, but buyers
remained generally on the sidelines as domestic demand is
weak.
Export price ideas for prills remained unworkable at be-
tween $360-370/t fob.
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Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023
Domestic prices for granular urea from Brunei were indi-
cated at 9,500 dong/kg ($400/t) ex-warehouse bagged, while
domestic prices for prilled urea were indicated at 9,400-
9,500 dong/kg ($399-404/t) ex-warehouse bagged this week.
Thailand
Import offers repeated this week at around $350/t cfr for
6,000-8,000t lots of granular urea to ship in April. An im-
porter bid a Middle East supplier for 20,000t of granular at
around $330/t cfr, which was rejected.
Thailand’s main application season will begin in April and
importers are likely to seek to buy spot cargoes, albeit hand-
to-mouth until confidence in price stability returns.
Americas
US
Nola urea values climbed by double digits on trade this week
as traders sought to cover their March positions, straining
nearby availability.
Barges for delivery by the end of the month accounted for
roughly two-thirds of trade confirmed this week as traders
worked to cover short positions for March, driving a mid-
week price jump that sustained through Thursday morning
as sources cited dwindling nearby availability.
Several barges for March delivery changed hands at $332/
st fob Nola across the second half of the week to frame the
high end of the $305-332/st fob range. Loaded and prompt
barge sales accounted for nearly one-third of liquidity this
week, ranging in value from $305-319/st fob Nola.
April and 1H April barges traded at a discount to March ton-
nage through the end of the assessment window, with seven
barges changing hands at $325/st fob Nola in the second half
of the week. Offers remained at $325/st fob Nola by Thurs-
day afternoon, $15-20/st below concurrent March offers.
Price appreciation this season is most likely to concentrate
at the river terminals and inland warehouses as remaining
spring demand emerges closer to the widespread application
window, especially if logistics challenges — recently includ-
ing high water levels and rail service delays — prevail.
Upper Mississippi river navigation begins
A tow pushing six barges broke through ice on Minnesota's
Lake Pepin this past weekend, marking the start of the up-
Argus Nitrogen Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

per Mississippi river navigation season. Brazil urea import line up

Vessel ’000t Origin Supplier Disport Status ETB

Ice on the lake is typically the last to thaw, and transit up to Handy Perth 20 Germany Acron Antonina Expected 27 Mar
St Paul, Minnesota, can begin when a tow breaks through it. Ionna D 10 Russia Uralkali Antonina Expected 8 Apr
Selin M 30 Russia Eurochem Aratu Berthed 9 Mar
This year's tow was about one week ahead of the average Papua 6 Russia Eurochem Aratu At roads 19 Mar
start date to the upper Mississippi navigation season.
SFL Hudson 7 Nigeria Koch Aratu At roads 16 Mar
Dulce Diva 18 Qatar Ameropa Paranagua Expected 24 Mar
Mexico
Rio Grande 33 Nigeria Koch Rio Grande Expected 20 Mar
Tepeyac is in the market for 35,000t of granular urea for
Osogovo 11 Russia Eurochem Santarem Berthed 6 Mar
early April shipment to Manzanillo and Topolabampo. Last
Asali 23 Qatar Santos Expected 6 Apr
offers were heard in the $350s/t cfr.
Lyulin 14 Russia Santos Expected 15 Mar
Zurich 40 Oman Enbel SFS Expected 24 Mar
Fertinal is still looking for a prilled or granular urea cargo for
Ionna D 5 Russia Uralkali SFS Expected 2 Apr
the east coast, after scrapping its previous tender, but no
deal was confirmed. Agia Eleni 11 Russia Ttechnogran SFS Expected 15 Mar
Port Angeles 22 Venezuela Graneles SFS Expected 28 Mar
Apogee
Central America Endeavour 17 Venezuela AC Vita SFS Expected 30 Mar

Incofe bought two cargoes of urea, ammonium nitrate and Total 267

DAP this week following a tender. It secured the following:

„„ 30,000t of granular urea from Fertiglobe in the $340s/t Ammonium Sulphates

cfr for discharge in west coast central American ports.
Incofe resold half this cargo to Nitron which will receive it
in Colombia.
„„ 13,000t of prills (around $330/t cfr), 11,000t of granu-
lar (around $340/t cfr) and 7,000t of ammonium nitrate
($290s/t cfr) from Acron for east coast ports. Acron will also
load DAP on this vessel, which Incofe bought on a fob basis
from Phosagro.
Brazil
Granular urea prices in Brazil fell further this week as sup-
pliers liquidated positions off March-loading cargoes.
Latest deals were done at $315/t cfr, for 15,000t in total, but
earlier in the week other suppliers sold 30,000t at $330/t cfr
and 15,000t at $320/t cfr. The cargoes are expected to load
from Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar.
Brazil is priced at a steep discount to the US — where an
importer bid $340/t cfr for a full cargo to arrive by May.
Europe
Standard capro-grade amsul was indicated at €200-215/t
fob, equivalent to $212-228/t fob, framed by fresh deals into
European markets.
There were some deals for Europeans destinations reported
between €260-270/t fob for March shipment, but these were
excluded from the price assessment as unrepresentative of
the overall flow of the trade. These deals included:
„„ 500t at €250-270/t fca to France.
„„ Three barges of 24-150t at €260-270/t fob to Belgium.
Granular amsul prices were stable in the $295-305/t fob
range, with no new sales reported.
Poland
Grupo Azoty announced this week the closure of its capro-
lactam output at its Pulawy plant as of 10 March. Pulawy
is the smallest of Azoty’s amsul facilities, with capacity of
about 210,000t/ yr.

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Argus Nitrogen
The company’s plant in Tarnow has amsul capacity of about
390,000t/ yr and is currently running at reduced capacity,
with no intention to increase the current operation rate
because of low caprolactam demand.
Imports rise in January
Poland amsul imports totalled 24,500t in January, up from
6000t arrivals a year earlier, according to the latest GTT
data.
China was the main supplier, with shipments accounting for
82pc of total imports to 20,000t, up from zero in the previ-
ous year.
Shipments from Germany fell by 22pc on the year to 2,700t,
while deliveries from Russia totalled 1000t, up from zero a
year earlier.
Turkey
A Northwest European producer sold 11,000t of standard
amsul at $200/t cfr, which loaded this week for Samsun port.
Imports rise in January
Amsul imports to Turkey grew by 43pc on the year to
211,000t, according to the latest GTT data.
Deliveries from China, the largest amsul supplier to Turkey,
totalled 159,000t, up by 27pc on the year. Imports from the
US totalled 32,000t, up from zero a year earlier. Likewise,
imports from Russia grew by 21pc on the year to 19,000t.
There were no deliveries from Iran and Spain, compared to
3,000t and 4,000t delivered a year ago, respectively.
Proposal to end Baltic and Black Sea amsul
prices
Argus proposes to end the publication of its fob Baltic
(caprolactam) [PA0009877] and fob Black Sea (capro-
lactam and synthetic) [PA0009365] ammonium sulphate
(amsul) prices because of limited market liquidity.
Argus will accept comments on this proposed change
until 7 April. To discuss comments on this proposal,
please contact Bede Heren at bede.heren@argusmedia.
com or +447780860114. Formal comments should be
marked as such and may be submitted by email to fertiliz-
er@argusmedia.com and received by 7 April. Please note,
formal comments will be published after the consultation
period unless confidentiality is specifically requested.
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Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023
Asia
China
Standard amsul prices widened and fell slightly to $160-170/t
fob China this week on latest concluded tenders and lower
offer indications.
There was a sale of 6,000-8,000t of standard amsul to the
Philippines for April shipment, reflecting netbacks to the
low-$160s/t fob China this week.
Mexican importer Tepeyac purchased 5,000t of standard
amsul and 15,000t of compacted amsul via a tender this
week, reflecting netbacks to $165/t fob and $195-200/t fob
respectively, for early-April shipment.
There was an inquiry for 40,000-50,000t of standard amsul
to Turkey for April shipment this week.
MMA-grade amsul prices were indicated mostly at $145-150/t
fob, but no deals were concluded.
Compacted and granular amsul prices were stable at $190-
200/t fob China this week, owing to the absence of new
business in Brazil, as Brazil is currently in its off-peak ap-
plication season. Some compactors were facing high invento-
ries and looked to sell their cargoes at lower prices.
Domestic
Steel-grade amsul prices were indicated at Yn800-950/t ex-
works from Shanxi, falling sharply by Yn150-200/t ex-works
from last week.
Buyers remained on the sidelines because of declining urea
prices and weak Brazilian demand for amsul, with most
domestic steel tenders scrapped this week.
Current amsul availability for April loading in the Fujian and
northern regions are reportedly tight, as some producers
had sold cargoes to domestic traders who were looking for
cargoes to fulfil their past commitments.
Philippines
An importer purchased 6,000-8,000t of standard amsul for
April shipment at $180-185/t cfr this week. The cargoes are
likely to be sourced from China. Another importer received
offers for standard amsul from China at the same price
range, for April shipment.
Atlas issued a tender to purchase 8,000t of standard amsul
Argus Nitrogen Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

for shipment to Sangi port for the first-half of April. The
tender is expected to close on 17 March.
South Korea
Exports fall in February
South Korea’s amsul exports totalled 27,900t in February,
down by 53pc from the previous year, according to the latest
GTT data.
United States was the top export destination for South Korea
in February at 27,500t, stable from the year ago.
January-February exports totalled 46,200t, falling by 30pc
from the same period a year ago. Exports to the United
States remained the highest at 27,500t, constant from the
previous year. Exports to New Zealand and Vietnam both
rose on the year by 12,000t and 6,000t respectively, com-
pared to zero from the same period last year.
Ammonium Nitrates
Germany
Domestic buying of CAN 27 has come to an almost complete
halt, as adverse weather kept farmers off fields and hindered
applications. Wholesalers and retailers have limited their
purchases to hand-to-mouth buying, hesitant to take posi-
tions in a falling market, which means any demand is depen-
dent on movement at the lowest end of the supply chain.
Prices have largely stagnated from major sellers – which kept
levels at €350/t cif inland at the high end –, but the range
widened with some imported material available in the €335-
340/t cpt range to farmers.
Over the past week, the first offers have also started to
emerge for new-season sales, with prices dipping to just
below €300/t cpt for delivery from May onwards.

Brazil
Liquidity remained thin this week, with limited demand and
urea prices weighing on amsul prices. Price ideas were indi-
cated at $215-220/cfr for granular and compacted amsul and
at $200-210/t cfr range for standard.
Fertbroker the #1 amsul charterer to Brazil in January
From vessels arriving in Brazilian ports in January 2023,
Fertbroker was the main amsul supplier – with shipments of
around 220,000t.
UK
Domestic prices of AN 34.5 have coalesced around CF’s price
for April delivery at £455/t bagged delivered, with imported
material on offer ranging £445-460/t bagged delivered this
week. But fertilizer buying has largely halted amid snow in
large parts of the country.
Suppliers on the European mainland have lowered their of-
fers of imported AN 34 to the £390s/t cif bagged, down from
levels around £460/t cif bagged earlier this month.

Shipments by Agrilaf and Macrosource totalled 100,000t and France

60,000t, respectively. 7Seas imported 15,000t. Yara's latest offers of AN 33.5 ranged €430-450/t cpt, down
by around €50/t from February.
Mexico
Teypac bought 15,000t of compacted amsul at $195-200/t Central America
fob and 5,00t of standard materials at $165/t fob range for Acron sold 7,000t of AN in the $290s/t cfr to Incofe to ship
shipment during 5-15 April. to east coast central American ports in combination with
urea and DAP. Freight is estimated around $80/t.
Brazil amsul vessel line-up
Vessel ’000t Origin Charterer Disport Status ETB Brazil
Royal Jade 15 China Fertbroker Aratu Expected 15 Mar
Offers of Russian AN fell further this week, with latest levels
indicated around $250/t cfr, as producers sought to secure
Aquavita Air 12 China Indagro Paranagua Expected 21 Mar
liquidity.
Ionic Patris 20 China Agrilaf Paranagua Expected 18 Mar

Ionic Patris 47 China Agrilaf Rio Grande Expected 21 Mar

Ru Meng Lng 5 China Bulkfertz Rio Grande Expected 13 Apr

Ante Topic 20 China Santos Expected 20 Apr

Navios 24 China Bulkfertz SFS At roads 14 Mar
Citrine
Total 143

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 9 of 11

Licensed to: Siraj Rahimtula 2, TRANSCOM DMCC
Argus Nitrogen
UAN Solutions
US
Nola UAN values rose on indications for April, which carried
a premium to nearby and March values.
Sources this week indicated April barge values at $275/st fob
Nola, with offers said to be moving higher. Nearby indica-
tions were stable.
But overall activity remains thin at the US Gulf coast and
barge trades were scarce this week. Most interest has con-
centrated inland, where sources cited steady but low-volume
movement despite unfavorable weather conditions across
the Midwest.
Offers on the east coast were little changed, upholding the
prior week’s $380-385/t cfr range. Suboptimal weather is
expected to linger in the region for at least another week,
making significant upticks in price or demand unlikely until
late March, sources said.
France
New season prices oscillated between €305-315/t fca Rouen
for UAN 30 to ship from May-December but overall trade was
slim.
Prompt demand picked up slightly from last week but prices
fell as sellers remain keen to liquidate positions rather than
roll them into the next campaign. Deals were reported be-
tween €328-342/t fca Rouen.
Romania
A trader sought offers for prompt shipment to Romania but
no deal concluded as lowest seller indications around $400/t
cfr were almost $100/t above workable levels into local
markets.
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 10 of 11
Licensed to: Siraj Rahimtula 2, TRANSCOM DMCC
Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023
News
EC clears Borealis sale to Agrofert
The European Commission has approved the sale of the
nitrogen fertilizer business of Austrian chemicals group
Borealis to Czech Republic-headquartered Agrofert. The
final closing of the transaction remains pending, but Borealis
expects the sale to be complete by the end this month.
Continue reading >>
Grupa Azoty output still reduced
Poland’s largest fertilizer producer Azoty is still running
units at reduced capacity, citing difficult market conditions,
even as Polish demand picks up ahead of the main spring
application season.
Continue reading >>
Brazil ferts deliveries down by 10pc in 2022
Brazil’s fertilizer deliveries to farmers and blenders fell by
10.4pc in 2022, amid lower imports in the second half of the
year.
Continue reading >>
EU industrial gas demand rebound likely gradual
Any recovery in European industrial gas demand is likely
to be gradual as many commodity markets are still taking
a wait-and-see approach, despite gas prices falling to their
lowest in one and a half years.
Continue reading >>
Argus Nitrogen Issue 23-11  |  Thursday 16 March 2023

FERTILIZER DERIVATIVES

FIS cash settled futures —15 Mar 2023 Direct Hedge cash settled futures — 16 Mar 2023
Month Bid Offer Mid Basis Month Bid Offer Mid Basis

Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (s ton) Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (s ton)
Mar 310 320 315 1.5kst Mar 310 325 318 1.5kst
Apr 320 330 325 1.5kst Apr 310 325 318 1.5kst
May 320 328 324 1.5kst May 305 320 312 1.5kst
Urea (gran) fob Egypt (mt) Urea (gran) fob Egypt (mt)
Mar 390 399 394 5kmt Mar 330 360 345 5kmt
Apr 335 345 340 5kmt Apr 330 360 345 5kmt
May 330 350 340 5kmt May 330 360 345 5kmt
Urea (gran) fob Middle East (mt) Urea (gran) fob Middle East (mt)
Mar 310 317 314 5kmt Mar 305 320 312 5kmt
Apr 310 320 315 5kmt Apr 310 320 330 5kmt
May 325 335 330 5kmt May 325 335 330 5kmt
Urea (gran) cfr Brazil (mt) Urea (gran) cfr Brazil (mt)
Mar 332 340 336 5kmt Mar 330 335 332 5kmt
Apr 320 340 330 5kmt Apr 340 350 345 5kmt
May 320 335 328 5kmt May 345 350 348 5kmt

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