CHAPTER 3

SYSTEM ANALYSIS
3.1. EXISTING SYSTEM
 Manual System
Before the advent of machine learning, clinicians and healthcare professionals used manual
systems to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. These systems relied on risk prediction
algorithms that were based on established risk factors such as age, sex, blood pressure,
cholesterol levels, and smoking status. One of the most widely used manual systems for CVD
prediction is the Framingham Risk Score. This system was developed by the Framingham
Heart Study and is used to predict the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease
(CHD) based on age, sex, blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and smoking
status. The Framingham Risk Score has been extensively validated and is widely used in
clinical practice.
Another manual system for CVD prediction is the Reynolds Risk Score, which incorporates
additional risk factors such as family history of premature CVD, high-sensitivity C-reactive
protein (hsCRP) levels, and parental history of diabetes. The Reynolds Risk Score has been
shown to improve CVD risk prediction in women and in individuals with low to moderate
risk.
While manual systems such as the Framingham and Reynolds Risk Scores are useful for
CVD prediction, they have several limitations. They rely on a limited set of risk factors and
do not account for the complex interactions between these factors. They also do not
incorporate newer risk factors such as genetic markers, lifestyle factors, and imaging
biomarkers that have been shown to improve CVD prediction.
 Computer Aided Automated System
Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems have become increasingly popular for
predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk due to their ability to automatically select and
tune models based on the data at hand. Some commonly used machine learning models for
CVD prediction include K-Nearest Neighbor, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines
(SVM), Decision Trees, Random Forest, and xGBoost.
K-Nearest Neighbor
KNN is a simple and intuitive algorithm that is often used for classification tasks such as
CVD prediction. The algorithm classifies a new data point by looking at the class of its K
nearest neighbors in the training data. KNN can be effective for CVD prediction when the
data has a clear separation between the two classes.

Logistic Regression
Logistic regression is a popular algorithm for binary classification tasks such as CVD
prediction. It models the probability of a patient having CVD as a function of their risk
factors. Logistic regression is simple to interpret and can be useful for identifying which risk
factors are most important for CVD prediction.
Support Vector Machines
SVM is a powerful algorithm that can be used for both binary and multi-class classification
tasks. SVM seeks to find the optimal hyperplane that separates the two classes of data points.
SVM can be effective for CVD prediction when the data is non-linearly separable.
Decision Trees
Decision trees are a simple and interpretable algorithm that can be used for both binary and
multi-class classification tasks. Decision trees partition the data space into a set of rectangular
regions, with each region corresponding to a unique class label. Decision trees can be
effective for CVD prediction when the data has a clear hierarchy of important features.
xGBoost
xGBoost is a popular gradient boosting algorithm that is often used for CVD prediction. It
iteratively builds a series of weak decision trees, with each tree improving on the mistakes of
the previous trees. xGBoost can be effective for CVD prediction when the data has complex
interactions between the risk factors.
3.1.1. Disadvantages
While manual systems for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction, such as the Framingham
Risk Score and the Reynolds Risk Score, have been widely used in clinical practice, they
have several limitations:
 Limited Risk Factors: These manual systems rely on a limited set of risk factors,
such as age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, and smoking status. These factors
are important for CVD prediction, but they do not account for the complex
interactions between these factors and other important risk factors such as genetics,
lifestyle, and environmental factors.
  Lack of Personalization: Manual systems provide a one-size-fits-all approach to
CVD prediction and do not take into account individual variations in risk factors and
other characteristics.
 Inability to Update: Manual systems are static and do not easily allow for updates
and incorporation of new risk factors or changes in patient characteristics over time.
 Limited Accuracy: Manual systems have been shown to have limited accuracy in
predicting CVD risk, with some studies reporting a high number of false positives and
false negatives.
 Lack of Consideration of Comorbidities: Manual systems often do not take into
account the presence of comorbidities, such as diabetes, which can greatly increase a
patient's risk for CVD.
 Overfitting: AutoML systems can sometimes over fit to the training data, resulting in
poor generalization performance on new, unseen data.
 Lack of Interpretability: Some AutoML algorithms, such as neural networks, can be
difficult to interpret and provide little insight into the underlying mechanisms of CVD
risk prediction.
 Data Quality: AutoML systems rely heavily on the quality and quantity of the input
data. Poor quality or insufficient data can result in inaccurate predictions and potential
biases.
 Bias: AutoML systems can be susceptible to bias if the input data contains systematic
errors or if the algorithm itself is biased.
 Computationally Expensive: Some AutoML algorithms, such as xGBoost, can be
computationally expensive and require significant computational resources.
 Lack of Explain ability: AutoML systems can sometimes produce predictions that
are difficult to explain or justify, which can limit their usefulness in clinical decision-
making.
3.2. PROPOSED SYSTEM
The proposed methodology for the web-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction and
alert system with sensor data using Random Forest could involve the following steps:
 Data Collection: The first step is to collect relevant data from patients, including
sensor data such as temperature, pressure, heart rate, and other parameters. This data
can be collected using wearable sensors or other medical devices and transmitted to a
secure cloud-based database.
  Data Pre-processing: Once the data is collected, it needs to be pre-processed to
remove any noise or errors and to transform it into a format suitable for analysis. This
may involve data cleaning, normalization, and feature selection.
 CVD Prediction Model Development: The next step is to develop a CVD prediction
model using the Random Forest algorithm. The model can be trained using the pre-
processed data, with the target variable being the presence or absence of CVD.
 Alert System Development: Once the CVD prediction model is developed and
evaluated, the alert system can be developed to notify the patient's guardians, doctors,
and ambulance services in case of any emergency. The alert system can be location-
based to provide alerts to the nearest hospital and ambulance services.
 Integration: Finally, the CVD prediction model and alert system can be integrated
into a web-based platform that patients can access from their smartphones or other
devices. The platform can also provide personalized recommendations based on the
patient's health status and CVD risk factors.
 Personalized Recommendations: Generate personalized recommendations for
patients based on their predicted CVD risk, such as lifestyle changes, medication, or
follow-up appointments.
 Evaluation: Evaluate the performance of the CVD prediction model and the alert
system using various metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score.
Validate the model and system performance on independent datasets and different
populations.
 Deployment: Deploy the system on a web-based platform that can be accessed by
patients, guardians, doctors, and ambulance services, and ensure compliance with data
privacy and security regulations.
Thus, the proposed methodology involves collecting and pre-processing health and sensor
data, training a Random Forest model for CVD prediction, developing an alert system,
generating personalized recommendations, evaluating the system's performance, and
deploying it on a web-based platform. Careful attention to data quality, model validation, and
privacy and security concerns is essential for the success of the proposed system.
3.2.1. Advantages
 Improved Accuracy: By incorporating sensor data such as temperature, pressure, heart
rate, and other parameters, the CVD prediction model can be more accurate and
personalized.
  Real-Time Monitoring: The sensor data can be transmitted in real-time to the CVD
prediction model, allowing for continuous monitoring of the patient's health status.
 Rapid Response: The alert system can quickly notify the patient's guardians, doctors,
and ambulance services in case of any emergency, enabling rapid response times.
 Location-based Alerts: The alert system can provide location-based alerts to the
nearest hospital and ambulance services, improving the chances of timely medical
intervention.
 Personalized Recommendations: The CVD prediction model can generate
personalized recommendations for the patient, such as lifestyle changes, medications,
or follow-up appointments.
 Reduced Healthcare Costs: Early detection of CVD risk factors and timely medical
intervention can lead to reduced healthcare costs and better outcomes for patients.
3.3. Feasibility Study
A feasibility study of a web-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction and alert system
with sensor data using Random Forest would involve assessing the technical, operational, and
financial feasibility of the proposed system. Some potential factors to consider in this
feasibility study are:
1. Technical Feasibility: This involves assessing whether the proposed system can be
developed and implemented using existing technologies and infrastructure. Some
technical considerations to assess include the availability of reliable internet
connections, the scalability of the system, and the compatibility of the sensor data
with the Random Forest algorithm.
2. Operational Feasibility: This involves assessing whether the proposed system can be
effectively integrated into existing healthcare processes and workflows. Some
operational considerations to assess include the acceptability of the system to
healthcare providers and patients, the availability of trained staff to operate the
system, and the ability to integrate the system with electronic medical records.
3. Financial Feasibility: This involves assessing the financial viability of the proposed
system, including the costs of development, implementation, maintenance, and
ongoing support. Some financial considerations to assess include the potential
revenue streams for the system, the availability of funding sources, and the potential
return on investment.
 4. Regulatory and Legal Feasibility: This involves assessing the regulatory and legal
requirements for developing and implementing the proposed system, such as data
privacy and security regulations, medical device regulations, and liability issues.
5. Ethical Feasibility: This involves assessing the ethical implications of the proposed
system, including issues related to informed consent, privacy, and patient autonomy.
Overall, a feasibility study of a web-based CVD prediction and alert system with sensor data
using Random Forest is essential to assess the potential benefits and risks of the system,
identify any technical or operational challenges, and ensure that the system is financially
viable and ethically sound.