Research Report

Grade A office net demand

returned to positive
territory

Indonesia | November 2022

 Table of Content

01
The Economy
02
COVID-19 Update
03
CBD Office
04
Non-CBD Office

05
Retail
06
Condominiums
07
Logistics
08
Hotels
Warehousing

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 2
 Introduction

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 3
 01
The Economy
GDP GROWTH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS

Rupiah weakened and inflation increased

5.0% USD USD
3.7% 5.4% USD USD
31,093M 33,398M
28,666M
• • 28,209M

• 2019 2020 2021 2Q22 2019 2020 2021 per-3Q22

-2.1%

BENCHMARK INTEREST & INFLATION RATES USD-IDR EXCHANGE RATE

•

IDR IDR
6.0%
14,850 15,225
4.4%
3.5% 3.5% IDR
IDR 14,341
4.25% 14,219
3.5%

1.8% 2.6%

End of 4Q21 End of 1Q22 End of 2Q22 End of 3Q22 End of 4Q21 End of 1Q22 End of 2Q22 End of 3Q22

Interest rate

Source: Central Statistics Agency, Bank Indonesia

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 02
COVID-19 Update
While restrictions were relaxed, the government appealed to residents
to maintain health protocols

• •

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 5
 03
CBD Office
Positive net demand was recorded in Grade A; overall
remained negative

•
Net Demand

• 150,000
125,000
100,000
75,000

Sqm
• 50,000
25,000
0
(25,000)
(50,000)

1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Source: JLL Research

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 Demand, Supply, and Occupancy

• 600,000 100%
500,000 90%
400,000 80%

Occupancy
300,000 70%

Sqm
• 200,000 60%
100,000 50%
- 40%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
-100,000 30%

Net Demand New Supply Occupancy Rate

Source: JLL Research

Net Achievable Rent

•
500,000

IDR per sqm per month

400,000

• 300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Premium Grade A
Source: JLL Research

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 7
 04
Non-CBD Office
Slightly positive net demand was seen in the quarter

• •

• •

Net Absorption Demand, Supply, and Occupancy

250,000 400,000 100%
350,000 95%
200,000 300,000 90%
250,000 85%
150,000 200,000

Sqm
80%
150,000
100,000 75%
Sqm

100,000 70%
50,000
0 65%
50,000 -50,000 60%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022-ytd
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-ytd
-50,000 Net Demand New Supply Occupancy Rate
Source: JLL Research Source: JLL Research

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 8
 •

• .

Net Achievable Rent

IDR per sqm per month

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
Central Jakarta South Jakarta
North Jakarta East Jakarta
West Jakarta TB Simatupang
Source: JLL Research

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2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 9
 05
Retail
New demand was still centred on the relatively new malls

• •

Retail Net Absorption

100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
Sqm

20,000
0
-20,000
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
-40,000
Source: JLL Research

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 Supply, Demand and Occupancy

• 250,000 100%
200,000 95%
• 150,000 90%

Occupancy
85%

Sqm
100,000
80%
50,000 75%
0 70%
•
-50,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 65%

• Net Demand New Supply Occupancy

Source: JLL Research

Rental Rates

• 800,000

IDR per sqm per month

700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
• 100,000
0

End-2022
End-2023
End-2024
End-2025
End-2026
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
Upper Middle Middle Low
Source: JLL Research

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 06
Condominiums
Limited demand postponed market recovery

• •

Condominium Sales
8,000
7,000 Condominium Sales Rate
6,000
20,000 100%
5,000
15,000 80%
Units

4,000
60%

Units
3,000 10,000
40%
2,000 5,000 20%
1,000
- 0%
- Upper Grade Middle Grade Lower Grade
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
Proposed Unit Sold Sales Rate
Source: JLL Research Source: JLL Research

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 12
 •

Condominium Prices

70,000,000

60,000,000

IDR per sqm in millions

50,000,000

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
Lower Middle Middle Upper High-end Luxury
Source: JLL Research

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 07
Logistics Warehousing
Demand remained healthy amid limited new supply

• Occupancy Rates in Greater Jakarta

2,500,000 100%
• 2,000,000 80%

1,500,000 60%

Sqm
1,000,000 40%
•
500,000 20%

• 0 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22
Total Stock Occupied Stock Occupancy Rate
Source: JLL Research

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 14
 08
Hotels
Tourism picks up significantly with lifted border
restrictions

• International Visitor Arrivals to Jakarta

3,000,000 40%

2,500,000 20%

Annual Growth (%)

0%
• 2,000,000
-20%

Visitor Arrivals
1,500,000
-40%
1,000,000 Y-O-Y
-60%
Growth
• 500,000
736.4% -80%
0 -100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD YTD
International Visitor Arrivals Annual Growth Sep Sep
2021 2022
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia, JLL

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 15
 Existing and future hotel supply in Jakarta
• 80,000

60,000

No. of rooms
•
40,000

20,000

• 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F

Existing Supply New Supply Future Supply

Source: JLL Research

Trading performance of Luxury hotels in Jakarta

•

2,500,000 100%

2,000,000 80%
•

Occupancy (%)
ADR / RevPAR (IDR)
1,500,000 60%

1,000,000 40%
•
500,000 20%

0 0%
2019 2020 2021 YTD Sep 2021 YTD Sep 2022
ADR (IDR) RevPAR (IDR) Occupancy (%)
Source: STR
Note: Rates inclusive of Service Charge

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Jakarta Property Market Review 3Q 2022 | 16
 JLL Indonesia About JLL Research
JLL Research is a multi-disciplinary professional group with core competencies in economics, real estate
Jakarta market analysis and forecasting, locational analysis and investment strategy. The group is able to draw on an
Indonesia Stock Exchange Building extensive range and depth of experience from the Firm’s network of offices, operating across more than 100
Tower 2, 22nd Floor key markets worldwide. Our aim is to provide high-level analytical research services to assist practical
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 decision-making in all aspects of real estate.
Jakarta 12190
+62 (21) 2922-3888 The Asia Pacific Research Group monitors rentals, capital values, demand and supply factors, vacancy rates,
investment yields, leasing and investment activity, and other significant trends and government policies
relating to all sectors of the property market including office, retail, residential, industrial and hotels. We
deliver a range of global, regional and local publications as well as research-based consultancy services.
Yunus Karim
Head of Research
Yunus.Karim@jll.com jll.co.id

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